Antaletriangle
02-20-2009, 04:10 PM
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article5773442.ece
Iran has enriched sufficient uranium to amass a nuclear bomb – a third more than previously thought – the United Nations announced yesterday.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said it had discovered an additional 209 kilograms of low-enriched uranium previously undeclared to inspectors, taking Tehran over the threshold of “nuclear breakout capability” of a ton of fissile material.
UN officials cautioned that many practical obstacles to the production of a bomb remain, and inspectors reported that Iran had slowed down on building its uranium enrichment capacity, a possible goodwill gesture to the new administration in Washington.
But the crossing of what has long been held as a red line in Iran’s nuclear programme dramatically add to the urgency in dealing with its ambitions and heighten tensions with Israel which has repeatedly declared it will not tolerate Iran reaching nuclear capability.
The additional uranium was discovered during its annual physical inventory of nuclear materials at the sprawling desert enrichment plant at Natanz.
Independent experts expressed astonishment at the mistake, which resulted in a miscalculation of the existing amount of uranium to which this year’s total was added.
Others voiced criticism that the inspections were only being carried out annually, given the urgency of the Iranian threat.
One expert, David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector and the president of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, declared himself “blindsided” by the report.
"They have reached a nuclear weapons breakout capability,” he said. “You can dance about it, but they would have enough to make 20-25 kg of weapons-grade HEU," or highly-enriched uranium, the final stage in refining fissile material for a nuclear bomb.
Experts had calculated that Iran was on track to meet this goal in six months to a year’s time, but that was before the miscalculation of stocks at Natanz was discovered.
The discrepancy came to light when the report noted that the new total came from the addition of 171 kilograms of new production to 839 kilograms of old production. But the agency had previously reported the old production as 630 kilograms – discrepancy of a third.
Officials said that Iran would be unable to enrich the uranium without using a separate clandestine facility.
No such facility has been discovered but the report revealed the construction of a new roof over the "heavy-water" nuclear reactor currently being built at Arak, which Tehran has prevented inspectors from entering.
Any transfer would involve the smuggling of fissile material from Natanz, which inspectors say they would easily notice. But inspections teams currently carry out their inventory only once a year at Natanz, so lost material could go undetected for months.
The process of highly enriching the existing fissile material would take months to years, depending on the current capability.
Tehran continues to insist that its nuclear programme is a peaceful one for the production of civilian nuclear energy despite its repeated failure to fully co-operate with inspectors, making it impossible to keep track of all their activities.
Related Links
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Iran has also refused to reveal how many centrifuges – the tubes that spin at high speed to enrichment uranium – they are manufacturing.
"If they break out they will do it at a clandestine facility, not at Natanz, so you can't use Natanz as a measure of how fast they could do it,” Mr Albright said.
The Iranians have stopped telling the IAEA about the production of centrifuges … so the agency doesn't know how many they are making."
On a more positive note, the report noted that the number of centrifuges in use at Narantz had increased less than expected. That discovery was presaged earlier this week when Mohammad ElBaradei, the agency chief, said Iran appeared to have made “a political decision” to do less enrichment than it physically could.
That decision could be a gesture towards the Obama Administration, which has held out the possibility of unconditional talks with Iran to reach agreement over its nuclear program.
The report’s revelations, however, raises questions over whether enough time is left for talking before Iran has built its bomb or whether further sanctions came work fast enough to forestall it.
In a separate report, the agency said its analysis of uranium particles from a Syrian facility that Israel had bombed in 2007 found “a low probability” that the tiny specks came from Israeli bombs, as Syria has insisted.
The agency called on Syria to allow it access to the site, which the US and Israel insist was a nuclear reactor that could have been used to make fuel for nuclear bombs.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00490/iran_01_385x185_490622a.jpg
Iran has enriched sufficient uranium to amass a nuclear bomb – a third more than previously thought – the United Nations announced yesterday.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said it had discovered an additional 209 kilograms of low-enriched uranium previously undeclared to inspectors, taking Tehran over the threshold of “nuclear breakout capability” of a ton of fissile material.
UN officials cautioned that many practical obstacles to the production of a bomb remain, and inspectors reported that Iran had slowed down on building its uranium enrichment capacity, a possible goodwill gesture to the new administration in Washington.
But the crossing of what has long been held as a red line in Iran’s nuclear programme dramatically add to the urgency in dealing with its ambitions and heighten tensions with Israel which has repeatedly declared it will not tolerate Iran reaching nuclear capability.
The additional uranium was discovered during its annual physical inventory of nuclear materials at the sprawling desert enrichment plant at Natanz.
Independent experts expressed astonishment at the mistake, which resulted in a miscalculation of the existing amount of uranium to which this year’s total was added.
Others voiced criticism that the inspections were only being carried out annually, given the urgency of the Iranian threat.
One expert, David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector and the president of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, declared himself “blindsided” by the report.
"They have reached a nuclear weapons breakout capability,” he said. “You can dance about it, but they would have enough to make 20-25 kg of weapons-grade HEU," or highly-enriched uranium, the final stage in refining fissile material for a nuclear bomb.
Experts had calculated that Iran was on track to meet this goal in six months to a year’s time, but that was before the miscalculation of stocks at Natanz was discovered.
The discrepancy came to light when the report noted that the new total came from the addition of 171 kilograms of new production to 839 kilograms of old production. But the agency had previously reported the old production as 630 kilograms – discrepancy of a third.
Officials said that Iran would be unable to enrich the uranium without using a separate clandestine facility.
No such facility has been discovered but the report revealed the construction of a new roof over the "heavy-water" nuclear reactor currently being built at Arak, which Tehran has prevented inspectors from entering.
Any transfer would involve the smuggling of fissile material from Natanz, which inspectors say they would easily notice. But inspections teams currently carry out their inventory only once a year at Natanz, so lost material could go undetected for months.
The process of highly enriching the existing fissile material would take months to years, depending on the current capability.
Tehran continues to insist that its nuclear programme is a peaceful one for the production of civilian nuclear energy despite its repeated failure to fully co-operate with inspectors, making it impossible to keep track of all their activities.
Related Links
Attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is not an option
Israeli PM frontrunner attacks 'medieval' Iran
Iran's stalling tactics delay nuclear talks
Iran has also refused to reveal how many centrifuges – the tubes that spin at high speed to enrichment uranium – they are manufacturing.
"If they break out they will do it at a clandestine facility, not at Natanz, so you can't use Natanz as a measure of how fast they could do it,” Mr Albright said.
The Iranians have stopped telling the IAEA about the production of centrifuges … so the agency doesn't know how many they are making."
On a more positive note, the report noted that the number of centrifuges in use at Narantz had increased less than expected. That discovery was presaged earlier this week when Mohammad ElBaradei, the agency chief, said Iran appeared to have made “a political decision” to do less enrichment than it physically could.
That decision could be a gesture towards the Obama Administration, which has held out the possibility of unconditional talks with Iran to reach agreement over its nuclear program.
The report’s revelations, however, raises questions over whether enough time is left for talking before Iran has built its bomb or whether further sanctions came work fast enough to forestall it.
In a separate report, the agency said its analysis of uranium particles from a Syrian facility that Israel had bombed in 2007 found “a low probability” that the tiny specks came from Israeli bombs, as Syria has insisted.
The agency called on Syria to allow it access to the site, which the US and Israel insist was a nuclear reactor that could have been used to make fuel for nuclear bombs.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00490/iran_01_385x185_490622a.jpg