Things to come in 6 months (Economy)

[mu2143]

1. The Fed as on the 5th of May have purchased Already 70 billion dollar in T bills.
2. The Fed will purchase 13 billion Dollar in T Bills per week as long as possilble to make it apear the dollar to be stable.
3. Old ->news (The want to bankrubt Opec by putting the price of crude oil down to about 50 Dollar a barrel.)
4. Tax receipts are down by 44 billion dollars in just 1 month of April.
5 Baltic Dry Index is down 90%.
6 5.1 million jobs are lost since 2008
7. Corporate profits are down by 72% in the First Quarter of 2009
8. 1 out of 3 Commercial real estate are empty in de state of california.(Empty stores)
9. Dow Chemical profits are down by 97% in the first Quarter of 2009
10. Starbucks profits are down by 77% in the first Quarter of 2009
12. CNN news reported 253 police officers had been lade off, because the state of New york does not have the funding.
11. 372 major Metropolitan Areas in Phoenix Arizona reported unemployment is soaring.
12. Phoenix Arizona reported that the Real Estate prices are down by 50%.
13. Whirlpool profit falls 28% (1Q-2009) on demand drop
14. The CAO of GM is fired by the president of America.
15. GM America is going bankrupt just a matter of time, but the sales from GM China whent up 63.6% in the month of April and there not helping GM America.
16. On May the 5th 94.2 billons bail out money is requested.

[Moxie]

#5 Baltic Dry Index. I recently learned of this as being THE big indicater as it is the level of raw goods purchased for manufacture/production and is a huge indicater/forecast of perhaps 6 - 9 months out.

[pyrangello]

So does this also pertain to scrap steel, I have a pile of it here at my business but scrap was so high last year $250.00 a ton, to this spring $12,.00 a ton to now $80.00 a ton. Where does the baltic indicator fit into this equation?? or does it? I will say things are going to get much worse here in michigan , I am hereing out west things are very busy though.

[Jnana]

#5 Baltic Dry Index. I recently learned of this as being THE big indicater as it is the level of raw goods purchased for manufacture/production and is a huge indicater/forecast of perhaps 6 - 9 months out.


This description is mostly incorrect. The Baltic Dry Index is the cost of shipping bulk dry goods. The amount of shipping available is relatively inflexible. So, when demand for shipping varies a little bit, the cost of shipping can vary dramatically. This has happened repeatedly in the past. You need to look at some other number to determine the actual volume of goods shipped.

The Baltic Dry Index has no bearing on the cost of the goods being shipped (other than the amount of markup needed to cover shipping costs). So, there's nothing you can say about the value of a pile of steel based on the Baltic Dry Index.