Urban Survival predictions (based on reality)

[Avid]

Check shipping probs??? Any excuseville?

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Focus on Future Events
Not often, but every once in a while, a MainStreamMedia outfit gets something smack-dab right. A case in point this morning is the UK's TimesOnline group which headlines something I've been telling you for months to be watching for. Hand a gold star for pattern recognition Roger Boyes' article headlined:
"World Agenda: riots in Iceland, Latvia and Bulgaria are a sign of things to come

Our third global political column explores the start of an age of rebellion over the financial crisis - beginning in Iceland..."
Now, since it's in MSM, the 'rickety time machine' looks a little more scientific. However, fortunately, we're still crazy as ever, so please keep that in mind which I remind you that we're possibly within a week of 'Obama's Test' and I am scanning the headlines like mad looking for ship groundings because that will be either a key temporal marker or part of the flash point's arrival.

To be sure, there are some interesting items down on the waterfront beat. "Fears of mass scavenging as timber washes ashore in Kent" (England, not Washington). In Indonesia, eight fishing vessels have been impounded, but it's tough sledding for authorities as the Chinese are sticking to a convenient language barrier.

In Tasmania, something you don't hear about every day: A boat running aground in a dust storm in the Hobart area. Who'da thought? Probably had more to do with the 60-mile an hour (+) winds, but still, an oddity mostly unnoticed.

With the buzz of the inauguration behind him, president Obama gets down to a more or less normal full day in office. While things like closure of Guantanamo may be on his todo list, the presidential morning briefing will no doubt have something of a normal mix of events, good and bad to be weighed in matters of State.
China is sentencing people to death for their roles the recent milk tainting case.
Palestinians are mending tunnels despite threats of retaliation from Israel.
Israel, meantime, is sending in lawyers and leaflets in order to try and forestall war crimes charges as headlines come out that "Israel Launches Phosphorus Weapons Probe Amid Cries of 'War Crimes'.
But, lookie here, Mr. President - Fidel Castro sends you praise....

Yup, just another day in the world. Or is it?

Off in the background, Iran has sentenced four people to jail terms, two of them being US doctors, for allegedly trying to foment unrest and plotting the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.

If you wanted a poster-child for a country that could use a war, Iran might be it. A BusinessWeek analysis by Ian Bremmer notes that Iran's hardliners are facing increasing opposition, and with 25% unemployment and elections due in June of this year, things bear watching closely:
"Still, whenever public attention turns toward the nuclear issue, the hardliners enjoy broad domestic support. That's why the Iranian government will answer real or perceived Israeli threats with its own hostile challenges. Meanwhile, Iran is likely to continue with its program of uranium enrichment even as it shrugs off overtures from the Obama Administration. That raises the risk of direct conflict with U.S. forces in southern Iraq and the Strait of Hormuz. "
As anyone who watched the 'rally 'round the President' in the wake of 9/11, nations congeal, putting aside individual interests - at least for a while - when there's an externalized 'enemy'. I'm concerned that lesson may not be lost on Iran.

As I mapped out the possible scenario for Peoplenomics readers a couple of weeks ago, the business of who owns the Strait of Hormuz could be mighty contentious, especially is there was something like a tanker grounding on Jaziere-ye Forur, or any of the other Iranian-owned islands which could serve as an 'excuse' to close the Strait. From that report (Peoplenomics #384, January 11, 2009):
"Before going further into the linguistics and exploring a possible 'escalation path' it's important to realize that the current and traditional shipping channels to much of the Middle East's oil transit what are arguably Iranian waters.
As it turns out, we read in Dodman R. Bundy's "State Practice in Maritime Delimitation" that from a 1969 case (also involving oil incidentally, specifically in the North Sea with Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands contending (P.17) , that the International Court of Justice "...stated that 'there is no legal limit to the considerations which states may take account of' in delimiting their continental shelf. In itself, this suggests that there is no single method of delimitation which is obligatory in all circumstances."

Since the current shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf have been around since the Brits ruled supreme in that part of the world, little (or no) consideration has been given to an ugly fact of geography:

Iran owns land on both sides of the shipping lanes and as you'll see, there's a series of 12-mile circles which could be used to argue that those waters really could be completely claimed by Iran."

It doesn't help the situation that "Iraq accuses Iranian exiles of plotting attack" and even though North Korea and Iran say they are open to US talks on the one hand, Iran's president Ahmadinejad is being skeptical about just how much change the Obama administration will be able to bring to America on the other.

Thus, with a quick stir of the global headline stew this morning, we watch things simmer, knowing that sooner than later, the linguistics seem to hint at a test of the new president to come along. Meantime, I'll keep obsessively looking for that ship grounding that seems linked to the front end of the crisis.

[alyscat]

just a temporal marker. When you see a ship going a-ground it's a cue that something else is supposed to happen in x time.
alys