To: Friends and Family

[anthrovolution]

If you are like me most of what we discuss in this forum you can't talk about with friends and family. But I still feel compelled to share as much of my concern about world affairs as I can, but I have to tone it down a lot. So I think we should all write letters, post myspace bulletins, and send emails to friends and family to encourage them to be safe, and prepared, as much as possible.

Here is my letter:

To: Friends and Family

We all have seen the guy with the sign that says the world is coming to an end. I don't want to sound like that guy, but the condition of the world is now in a state where we should be smart about keeping ourselves safe just in case things get difficult.

Even a brief browse through the daily news will reveal that we are living in a time of significant transition.

The price of energy and food prices have shot way way up, and then have come back down a bit, but are still very high. The price of housing doubled and tripled over the last decade only to come crashing back down over the past two years. Over $5,000,000,000,000 (that's 5 thousand thousand million $$) has been taken over by the US Federal Government, which has used up all the credit that the US Federal Treasury had available. Three big investment firms or insurance companies are possibly going to crash this week, maybe many more in the weeks ahead. The Treasury and the Federal Reserve are already over extended (using our money) and are not in a position to bail out any more.

Supply and Demand don't seem to be in control of markets anymore : Gold and Silver are in great demand, buyers waiting weeks for delivery of the metal which is hard to find, but the price is going down. This is the opposite of what the law of supply and demand should do. This shouldn't be happening and is an indication that there is significant manipulation in the marketplace. This is also a revelation that much of the paper (contracts for the metal) are fraudulent. In other words you buy a contract for gold, with the option to take delivery of the metal if necessary, but the actual metal, in fact, does not exist.

It is increasingly obvious that the run up in crude oil prices and food commodities such as corn and rice in the last 6 months were not a result of supply and demand. Crude oil prices were run up do to speculation, but probably even more so by direct manipulation by key players in the marketplace.

So what does all this mean?

It means that we are witnessing a transition in how our planet works, primarily in the area of financial services. Since the big depression in 1929 various governments, including the US government, have been relaxing oversight, and changing laws, that allow banks, investors, insurance companies, and real estate agents, and securities brokers to do pretty much whatever they wanted to do. Financial services companies have been creating more and more 'financial instruments', especially derivatives, that make it much easier to buy and sell 'stuff' than it used to be. Most sales are just contracts, a piece of paper, and neither the buyer or the seller will ever see the actual commodity being bought and sold. This disconnection from the actual market creates certain blind spots that allows traders and investors to get themselves into trouble. In may cases low quality loans have been repackaged as derivatives and sold as a security, like a stock or bond, and been given a very high rating, thus fooling investors into spending a lot of money buying junk.

This financial free for all has for the past decade created a rapidly churning flow of value that is reminiscent of the game that kids play with chairs and music. You take a bunch of kids sitting in chairs and then you start to play some music. While the music plays the kids dance around until the music stops, and then they all sit down, except someone has removed one of the chairs, so one kid gets left out, no place to sit down. The financial game the world has been playing is similar, in that everything is fine as long as the money and debt and paper contracts keep flowing. That is the music. Unfortunately, the music has stopped, and many financial institutions are left out just like the kid who can't find a chair. With no place to sit down and wait for the music to start, they crash.

So what can we do about it?

Unless you are a big banker, a Finance Minister, or the Secretary of the Treasury there is little, if anything, you can do, other than get your money out of banks while you still can. Fortunately for me and my friends, we don't actually have any money so that isn't an issue.

Although I don't expect this to turn into the bread lines of the 1930's, or for there to be riots and martial law with troops and tanks rolling down our streets; I do expect that there will be some major disruptions in both the price and the availability of some critical commodities, most specifically energy and food.

Here is what I would recommend. Energy and food may from time to time in the near future become unavailable, either because the price goes up so high we just can't buy it, or because of supply disruptions where there just isn't any there to buy. So, whenever you have a little extra $$, instead of taking the family to dinner and the movies, or throwing a kegger for your buddies, take that $100 and buy a couple of 5 gallon jugs of water from the water store. Get a 5 gallon gas can from Target and fill it up with gas. Throw a few extra bags of dry beans, rice, and noodles in the shopping cart. You don't have to buy vast quantities all at once, just keep buying a little more than you use. Buy stuff that will keep for months or years, like canned foods and dry foods. Just let the excess stack up week after week. If there is a sudden drop in the price of something, like gasoline, or food, then go out and get some more while it's cheap. Before you know it you will have 20 or 30 or 50 gallons of gasoline saved up (store it safely, preferably in an outside storage building). You will also have many gallons of drinking water stored, along with many pounds of dried food. Practice cooking different recipes with your food supply so you know how to make it tasty. Also stock up on salt and spices and learn how to use them. And, of course, don't forget to stock up on potty paper.

Now if there is a sudden disruption you are set. You have food, fuel, and water for several weeks or a months and you can muddle through a disruption without a big panic.

Encourage your friends and family to do the same. Otherwise they will all show up at your house expecting you to feed them. That could get ugly.

We all hope that the Treasury Department, The Federal Reserve, our Congress, and Finance Ministers around the world, will get all this worked out and stabilized soon. Yeah Right! If you have seen these guys on TV recently they honestly look like scared little boys and girls. So pray they somehow get it right, but in the mean time, grab a few extra cans of beans, and maybe an extra can opener in case you misplace your other one.