halfpasthuman says crash may have begun!(10/22/08)

[ophiuchus]

urbansurvival.com (webbot translator) has just posted a special notice that the predicted dow crash to the 5800 level may have just begun. any comments?

[Labratinaz]

My husband says that his Money Magazine told him that 80% of this downturn is made up in the first year. He is a bit skeptical about the Elliot Wave theory in that it is great historically but during the ride, you really don't know where you are on the curve.

I don't know enough. Does anyone really think it will get THAT bad?

Peace and prosperity

[Myplanet2]

we'll have to wait and see. Robin Landry has a remarkable record, and George quotes him a lot. I wouldn't discount his predictions.

On the other hand, the PTB will seemingly do anything within their power to prevent the apparency of the crash to come to attention before they are ready. At least until after the coming US election.

So we'll have to wait and see. Gold, Silver, Oil, US dollar are all behaving against natural tendencies.

[eugene_vn]

The Elliott Wave theory (lots of background on this at www.elliottwave.com), which seems to be the main interpretive tool they are using at HPH in addition to their linguistic analysis, is all about outlining most probable scenarios for future market movements and then refining those scenarios based on actual price movements. I've been an adherent of this method of stock market analysis for many years, though I readily admit it has its limitations and in no way provides a "crystal ball".

A good overview to the Elliott Wave theory and the related field of “socionomics” is provided in a free online film at http://www.socionomics.net/history/ .

One of the most curious aspects of Elliott Wave analysis for those who sense the coming world changes is that this theory of stock market behavior, which was developed by a relatively obscure accountant back in the Depression era named Ralph Elliott, is predicting a major stock market bottom around the year 2012. That forecast relies entirely on numerical relationships of past stock market price levels, not Mayan prophesy, astrology, etc. . . . though of course it can be seen as corroborating predictions based in those traditions.

I happen to agree mostly with the short-term "wave count" or forecast posted at HPH, in that I'm looking for a move Thursday off today's low up to around 8800-9000, followed by a big selloff of at least 20%. I'm more comfortable calling for the selloff to make a temporary bottom in the 6800-7000 area, though, rather than 5800 (not clear how HPH arrived at that figure). But it will definitely be a very emotional selloff so extensions to the downside wouldn't be surprising. In all likelihood there will be a sustained rally late this year and in the early months of next year, and this will probably fool a lot of people into unwisely re-investing in the stock market at precisely a terrible time.

The mainstream media like Money Magazine and Bloomberg.com are unfortunately doing a major disservice to the public through both shortsighted analysis and, in some cases, willful attempts to get mom-and-pop investors to play the stooges who will buy stocks from the “smart money” insiders getting out of the market while there is still time.

When they quote figures such as 80% recoveries within a few years, or claim that “buying and holding” stocks is a nearly foolproof long-term strategy, they are basing those claims on data sets going back only to the early twentieth century. That is where the “shortsightedness” comes in:

A key hole in all of the media comparisons of the current financial crisis to the Great Depression is that the current crisis, in Elliott Wave terms, is one degree of magnitude greater than the Great Depression; its most recent historical precedent is in fact the 70-year bear market of ca. 1720-1790. Precisely because no one alive today personally recalls the economic crisis of the eighteenth century, few people have an accurate estimation of how bad the coming bear market will be. It’s no coincidence that wars raged in many parts toward the end of the 18th century bear market (USA, Europe, Southeast Asia. . .) and so the potential for armed conflict towards the end of the current bear market is also rather high.

Luckily, and for reasons with which many here at Avalon are familiar (in terms of the “speeding up of time” going into 2012), the coming bear market is not likely to last several decades as in the eighteenth century. We will probably get through the worst of things by 2013-2015. However, quantitatively speaking, we will see the Dow fall at least to 1800 and very possibly to just triple digits as envisioned by HPH.

There are always multiple possible scenarios within an Elliott Wave interpretive framework; and that is to a large extent where the group consciousness / imagining and bringing into reality of positive futures work here at Avalon plays a key role. That is the kind of factor which absolutely can make the difference between having the bear market end at 1800 or 700 (or 50) on the Dow.

Elliott Wave theorists have found that the underlying neurological reason why stock market prices follow the patterns identified by Ralph Elliott is that investment decisions in most people are predominantly made by the reptilian (fear/greed) part of the brain, rather than the higher intellectual or intuitive faculties. As we evolve as a species away from the reptilian aspect of our thinking and behavior, it makes sense that we will also cease subjecting our society to these alternating cycles of financial boom and bust.

The bottom line in terms of investment advice is to get out of stocks, bonds, and nonessential real estate, and get into a combination of gold, silver, and strong currencies (the yen will be the dominant currency in the coming months – beyond that timeframe the markets will tell us what to hold, but the USD will likely be toast by then). Gold prices are nearing $700/oz. now and will likely bottom around $600-650. However, since availability is so tight, it’s probably a good idea to buy it when you can (where I live gold is readily available but we pay a 10% premium over spot price for example) even before prices have bottomed.

[Carol]

I just spoke with my banker son in England who said the next 6 months will be bad.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLMF5GM0Kt8

peace,
julie

Originally Posted by Labratinaz

My husband says that his Money Magazine told him that 80% of this downturn is made up in the first year. He is a bit skeptical about the Elliot Wave theory in that it is great historically but during the ride, you really don't know where you are on the curve.

I don't know enough. Does anyone really think it will get THAT bad?

Peace and prosperity

When the Dow Gold ratio hits 1 perhaps then it will be safe to think about owning paper assets. Money magazine is full of it! In a huge bear market like we have people that have stayed in might need 20 years to get even in real terms! Just think about Japan, wasn't the NIKKEI 39,000 in 1989? What is it now? 8,200?!! Please people stop listening to Wall Streeet or the folks that have gotten this situation wrong month after month after month for stocks and the economy for the last 1 1/2 years! Find yourself a good Austrian economist who have been warning of where we find ourselves today for the past 5 years!

Originally Posted by ophiuchus

any comments?

Only one...

I am fed up with predictions with nothing to back it up...

[joe2288]

yeah im gonna have to agree half past human said oct 7 somethin

would happen and it never did which was a big let down

i think goerge green has a better idea about whats gonna happen and

in my own opinion i do believe somthin willo happen but i m feb up wioth

people giving dates

[strayslack]

Originally Posted by joe2288

yeah im gonna have to agree half past human said oct 7 somethin

would happen and it never did which was a big let down

i think goerge green has a better idea about whats gonna happen and

in my own opinion i do believe somthin willo happen but i m feb up wioth

people giving dates

Are you kidding me with this?
The HPH data was dead on. The info never said "something big would happen on Oct. 7". What it said was that around that time would be the beginning of a major downward turn, and any half-wit who googles the DOW chart for the last month can see that at that precise time, the Dow dropped significantly, a volatility that the market hasn't seen in a long, long time. We ain't seen nothin' yet. Check out the latest update to urbansurvival.com. The Dow is plummeting as we speak.
Do your research, son, then make a comment.

[joe2288]

Originally Posted by strayslack

Are you kidding me with this?
The HPH data was dead on. The info never said "something big would happen on Oct. 7". What it said was that around that time would be the beginning of a major downward turn, and any half-wit who googles the DOW chart for the last month can see that at that precise time, the Dow dropped significantly, a volatility that the market hasn't seen in a long, long time. We ain't seen nothin' yet. Check out the latest update to urbansurvival.com. The Dow is plummeting as we speak.
Do your research, son, then make a comment.

no no what he said was on oct 7 there would be a major shift in

consciousnes and that never happenened but hey the stock market is down

604 right know with 20 mins to go so its dropin about 10 points a minute this

is bad i take back my prvious staerment about the 22nd this might be a big

day godspeed and its just droped 60 points while i was writing this wow

[strayslack]

Originally Posted by joe2288

no no what he said was on oct 7 there would be a major shift in

consciousnes and that never happenened but hey the stock market is down

604 right know with 20 mins to go so its dropin about 10 points a minute this

is bad i take back my prvious staerment about the 22nd this might be a big

day godspeed and its just droped 60 points while i was writing this wow

You are simply mistaken.

[Orion Morris]

strayslack..

joe2288 hasnt said anything that needs your correction

he retracted his previous statement and then pointed out the stock markets current status....

I think you are the one mistaken

[strayslack]

Originally Posted by Orion Morris

strayslack..

joe2288 hasnt said anything that needs your correction

he retracted his previous statement and then pointed out the stock markets current status....

I think you are the one mistaken

With all due respect, when joe2288 asserts that no shift in consciousness happened, or in a previous post, that "nothing happened", he was mistaken.
Thanks for your concern.

Originally Posted by strayslack

With all due respect, when joe2288 asserts that no shift in consciousness happened, or in a previous post, that "nothing happened", he was mistaken.
Thanks for your concern.

I guess we could look at this objectively and agree that's it's different for each of us. Food for thought.

peace,
julie

Originally Posted by CosmicFever

I guess we could look at this objectively and agree that's it's different for each of us. Food for thought.

peace,
julie

If your neighbor is loses their job it is a recession. If YOU lose your job it's a depression

Originally Posted by Baggywrinkle

If your neighbor is loses their job it is a recession. If YOU lose your job it's a depression

I must have misread something. I certainly was not making a reference to one's employment status. I'm in the process of closing a business I've owned for fifteen years. You just try to do the best you can with what you have to work with.

peace,
julie

[strayslack]

The reason I've taken umbrage to these remarks is that I felt as if the post was trying to lump the HPH data in with concepts like this Blossom Goodchild nonsense, and that is simply unacceptable.
I agree that HPH is something upon which we should not solely base our thoughts and actions, and something to approach with caution, but to completely dismiss it is a mistake, in my estimation.

[joe2288]

Originally Posted by strayslack

With all due respect, when joe2288 asserts that no shift in consciousness happened, or in a previous post, that "nothing happened", he was mistaken.
Thanks for your concern.

ok since your the expert on this subject why dont u tell us exactly what he

was right about in half past human and wat shift in consciuousness happened

[Ampgod]

Originally Posted by strayslack

Are you kidding me with this?
The HPH data was dead on. The info never said "something big would happen on Oct. 7". What it said was that around that time would be the beginning of a major downward turn, and any half-wit who googles the DOW chart for the last month can see that at that precise time, the Dow dropped significantly, a volatility that the market hasn't seen in a long, long time. We ain't seen nothin' yet. Check out the latest update to urbansurvival.com. The Dow is plummeting as we speak.
Do your research, son, then make a comment.

Use logic. This was in the works long before that date.
Why do people have this need to cling to useless date predictions?

[granny]

Originally Posted by Ampgod

Use logic. This was in the works long before that date.
Why do people have this need to cling to useless date predictions?

Actually what I think HPH said was that October 7 would be the beginning of the "release language" portion of the event which will last through next March. They said it could be a small event that would trigger the release and it would spread as time went on. Didn't Iceland go down about that time?

Oh well ... matters not ... economy is yucky and in a spiral ... downward.

Not much I can do except prepare to be self sufficient and eat pie!

Gran

P.S. The real failure in predictive pronouncements was the Oct 14th alien ship.

Where are those guys?

[feardia]

Originally Posted by joe2288

yeah im gonna have to agree half past human said oct 7 somethin

would happen and it never did which was a big let down

i think goerge green has a better idea about whats gonna happen and

in my own opinion i do believe somthin willo happen but i m feb up wioth

people giving dates

october 7 was the start of the slide, there's along way to go yet, 5 months on the slide sounds like release language to me. see you on the other side

[joe2288]

Originally Posted by feardia

october 7 was the start of the slide, there's along way to go yet, 5 months on the slide sounds like release language to me. see you on the other side

oct 7th was not the start of ther slide and if you dont believe me

then here is all the proof you need.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor...&DisplayForm=1

[strayslack]

Originally Posted by joe2288

oct 7th was not the start of ther slide and if you dont believe me

then here is all the proof you need.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor...&DisplayForm=1

Wait a minute, are you arguing that the "event" started on October 1st, and therefore the Oct. 7th date is invalid?
Look, the market started a downward slide in the days before the 7th, but it wasn't really until the 6th or 7th that the entire population started the collective "Wow!", and that is precisely what HPH measures, the emotional release language generated by an event.
In other words, it was right on.
You're missing the point of the model they've developed.
Munkey, what you've said is the truth.

[ralok_j]

Originally Posted by joe2288

oct 7th was not the start of ther slide and if you dont believe me

then here is all the proof you need.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor...&DisplayForm=1

No, the 7th wasn't the start of the slide, but it was the day that most people realized that the global financial system is totally boned. I have been in the financial services sector for 13 years and talked with many people that were shocked by what was happening.

I don't think you realize how serious this is. The credit markets are locked, the economic fundamentals of our economy are in the toilet, and there is too much debt being carried by the consumer and government sectors. Many bank's balance sheets are loaded with non performing assets (bad loans), which is restricting them from lending and putting a strain on their cash requirements.

There is a lot of blame to go around, but now isn't the time. The government throwing a few trillion of our tax dollars at the problems will more than likely make this worse. Do you see how this is building up? What the web bot guys are reporting is something my wife and I have been discussing since September.