Electrical grids & anticipated solar flares of 2012

viking · 04-05-2009, 01:05 PM

Sunday, April 05, 2009

NASA Report on 2012
Long scorned as “mysticism” and “parascience,” concern about the year 2012 has now surfaced in a mainstream NASA report on the potential impacts on human society of solar flares anticipated to peak in 2012.

Electrical grids & anticipated solar flares of 2012

Mainstream scientific concern about 2012 has grown since a recent National Research Council report funded by NASA and issued by the National Academy of Sciences, entitled “Severe Space Weather Events: Understanding Economic and Societal Impact” which details the potential devastation of 2012 solar storms on the current planetary energy grid and because of the inter-linkages of a cybernetic society, on our entire human civilization.

According to New Scientist, science’s concern is a repetition of the 8-day 1859 “Carrington event,” a large solar flare accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) that flung billions of tons of solar plasma onto the earth’s magnetosphere and disrupted Victorian-era magnetometers and the world telegraph system.

The New Scientist states, “The report outlines the worst case scenario for the US. The ‘perfect storm’ is most likely on a spring or autumn night in a year of heightened solar activity - something like 2012. Around the equinoxes, the orientation of the Earth's field to the sun makes us particularly vulnerable to a plasma strike.”

The next solar maximum is expected to occur in 2012. New Scientist reports that Mike Hapgood, head of the European Space Agency's space weather team states, "We're in the equivalent of an idyllic summer's day. The sun is quiet and benign, the quietest it has been for 100 years," "but it could turn the other way."

The modern electrical high-power grid magnifies the impact of solar flares. Since the grid is linked into major aspects of modern society, the effects of another Carrington event would be devastating. The National Academy of Sciences report states: “A severe space weather event in the US could induce ground currents that would knock out 300 key transformers within about 90 seconds, cutting off the power for more than 130 million people.” The New Scientist states: “According to the NAS report, the impact of what it terms a "severe geomagnetic storm scenario" could be as high as $2 trillion. And that's just the first year after the storm. The NAS puts the recovery time at four to 10 years. It is questionable whether the US would ever bounce back.”

China, which is installing a high-power electrical grid more vulnerable than that of the U.S., Europe and other developed nations will be similarly impacted.

The solar coronal mass ejection from the 1859 Carrington event arrived on earth in less than 15 minutes, which is faster that our early warning system NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) can detect.

European Space Agency space weather head Mike Hapgood states, "I don't think the NAS report is scaremongering. “Scientists are conservative by nature and this group is really thoughtful," he says. "This is a fair and balanced report."

More perfect storm: the hole in the earth’s magnetic field

According to a December 16, 2008 report, NASA’s THEMIS spacecraft has discovered a hole in earth’s magnetic field which is 10 times as large as previously thought. The magnetosphere, which is designed to protect earth from the plasma of solar flares, now has a hole in it four time the size of the earth.

According to the NASA report, “Northern IMF events don't actually trigger geomagnetic storms but they do set the stage for storms by loading the magnetosphere with plasma. A loaded magnetosphere is primed for auroras, power outages, and other disturbances that can result when, say, a CME (coronal mass ejection) hits.”

The solar maximum is expected in 2012. University of New Hampshire scientist Jimmy Raeder states, “"We're entering Solar Cycle 24. For reasons not fully understood, CMEs in even-numbered solar cycles (like 24) tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such a CME should open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma just before the storm gets underway. It's the perfect sequence for a really big event."

viking

alyscat · 04-05-2009, 10:32 PM

I'm still waiting to find out what happens to the grids of home solar systems - and how to protect them, if we need to, during anticipated CMEs.
anyone know?
alys

04-05-2009, 01:05 PM	#1
viking Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: UK Posts: 1,709	Electrical grids & anticipated solar flares of 2012 Sunday, April 05, 2009 NASA Report on 2012 Long scorned as “mysticism” and “parascience,” concern about the year 2012 has now surfaced in a mainstream NASA report on the potential impacts on human society of solar flares anticipated to peak in 2012. Electrical grids & anticipated solar flares of 2012 Mainstream scientific concern about 2012 has grown since a recent National Research Council report funded by NASA and issued by the National Academy of Sciences, entitled “Severe Space Weather Events: Understanding Economic and Societal Impact” which details the potential devastation of 2012 solar storms on the current planetary energy grid and because of the inter-linkages of a cybernetic society, on our entire human civilization. According to New Scientist, science’s concern is a repetition of the 8-day 1859 “Carrington event,” a large solar flare accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) that flung billions of tons of solar plasma onto the earth’s magnetosphere and disrupted Victorian-era magnetometers and the world telegraph system. The New Scientist states, “The report outlines the worst case scenario for the US. The ‘perfect storm’ is most likely on a spring or autumn night in a year of heightened solar activity - something like 2012. Around the equinoxes, the orientation of the Earth's field to the sun makes us particularly vulnerable to a plasma strike.” The next solar maximum is expected to occur in 2012. New Scientist reports that Mike Hapgood, head of the European Space Agency's space weather team states, "We're in the equivalent of an idyllic summer's day. The sun is quiet and benign, the quietest it has been for 100 years," "but it could turn the other way." The modern electrical high-power grid magnifies the impact of solar flares. Since the grid is linked into major aspects of modern society, the effects of another Carrington event would be devastating. The National Academy of Sciences report states: “A severe space weather event in the US could induce ground currents that would knock out 300 key transformers within about 90 seconds, cutting off the power for more than 130 million people.” The New Scientist states: “According to the NAS report, the impact of what it terms a "severe geomagnetic storm scenario" could be as high as $2 trillion. And that's just the first year after the storm. The NAS puts the recovery time at four to 10 years. It is questionable whether the US would ever bounce back.” China, which is installing a high-power electrical grid more vulnerable than that of the U.S., Europe and other developed nations will be similarly impacted. The solar coronal mass ejection from the 1859 Carrington event arrived on earth in less than 15 minutes, which is faster that our early warning system NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) can detect. European Space Agency space weather head Mike Hapgood states, "I don't think the NAS report is scaremongering. “Scientists are conservative by nature and this group is really thoughtful," he says. "This is a fair and balanced report." More perfect storm: the hole in the earth’s magnetic field According to a December 16, 2008 report, NASA’s THEMIS spacecraft has discovered a hole in earth’s magnetic field which is 10 times as large as previously thought. The magnetosphere, which is designed to protect earth from the plasma of solar flares, now has a hole in it four time the size of the earth. According to the NASA report, “Northern IMF events don't actually trigger geomagnetic storms but they do set the stage for storms by loading the magnetosphere with plasma. A loaded magnetosphere is primed for auroras, power outages, and other disturbances that can result when, say, a CME (coronal mass ejection) hits.” The solar maximum is expected in 2012. University of New Hampshire scientist Jimmy Raeder states, “"We're entering Solar Cycle 24. For reasons not fully understood, CMEs in even-numbered solar cycles (like 24) tend to hit Earth with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such a CME should open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma just before the storm gets underway. It's the perfect sequence for a really big event." viking

04-05-2009, 10:32 PM	#2
alyscat Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Washington state Posts: 743	Re: Electrical grids & anticipated solar flares of 2012 I'm still waiting to find out what happens to the grids of home solar systems - and how to protect them, if we need to, during anticipated CMEs. anyone know? alys