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Old 10-12-2008, 02:11 AM   #1
Avalon Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Japan
Posts: 87
Default Henry Deacon material

Hi Bill & Kerry,

Re: the following Henry Deacon material on the Camelot web site.

"An environmental threat
Henry very much wanted to visit Egypt. He was quite anxious about it, and told us it was a problem. When we asked why, he said that there was very little remaining time in which to travel there. We pressed him for a reason, and he responded that it was not connected with war or politics. We pressed him further, and he eventually said simply: "an environmental threat". He refused to elaborate, nor would he reveal how it was he had access to this information."

This could be the La Palma mega-tsunami which will very likely travel through the Straits of Gibraltar and into the Atlantic, though it will probably not be as high there as out in the Atlantic, and the narrow S of G gap will effectively diminish its size. I do think, however, this will be larger going through the S of G than our geologists currently think. In Japan we know from experience that tsunami do indeed travel around corners and bends.

Egypt is very low land and IMO is very likely to be inundated; perhaps not in the same way the US East coast and northern South America -- and North Africa -- will be; but perhaps after widening out into and traveling the length of the Mediterranean, it will impact Egypt somewhat like the Indonesian tsunami inundated Sri Lanka, noting that the length of the La Palma mega-tsunami will be approximately 100km, which is, of course, considerably longer than the Indonesian tsunami.

Note, I haven't calculated this out scientifically. This is just my research and carefully considered guess work.

When will this La Palma mega-tsunami occur? The popular press aside, which IMO irresponsibly plays it all down, Ward and Day opine sometime within the next 200 years. But Trombley and Ottesen of the SWVRC present the most salient computed figures IMO and come up with a maximum time of 117 years to the next eruption, with a 50% forecast of eruption from 2025.

This basically means that 17 years from now the odds of Cumbre Vieja erupting, which will likely cause the flank to collapse and the ensuing La Palma mega-tsunami, are 50/50 for any year, and growing ever more likely thereafter. Time is short indeed -- even if we engage on a most ambitious engineering project to prevent or lessen the magnitude of this forecast catastrophe, assuming that is possible, which I believe it is.
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