View Full Version : M5.3 Solar Flare / Solar Update (March 8)
8th March 2011, 11:30
A strong solar flare took place around departing Sunspot 1165 at 10:44 UTC Tuesday and registered M5.3. Because of the position of this sunspot, any explosions at this point around this region may not be earth directed. Several M-Class flares took place on Monday around Sunspots 1164, 1165 and 1166. Two Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) did take place however both do not appear to be fully earth directed. These expanding clouds could deliver a minor blow to earths geomagnetic field within the next 72 hours. The largest flare thus far was an M3.7 which took place at 20:12 UTC Monday. As reported above, several M-Class flares (7) took place during the day on Monday. Sunspot 1165 which is located in the southern hemisphere is in the process of rotating onto the western limb and will soon be out of direct earth view. Sunspot 1164 which is in the northern hemisphere will also rotate onto the western limb soon after 1165. The chances for strong solar flares will decrease somewhat once these regions are out of view, however there will remain the possibility for further flares around Sunspot 1166. Just to the east of 1166, Sunspot 1169 did show some minor growth during the day on Monday.
8th March 2011, 18:30
New One (ill add more data soon also)
as last pic shows its still active there^^ 10hour later and below as Red view
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on March 7. The CME observed on March 3 was absorbed into the solar wind with weak effects observed on March 6 and stronger effects on March 7 as the interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly southwards.
Solar flux measured at 17h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 151.9 (the observation at 20h could not be used because of the strong influence from the M3.7 LDE - increasing 62.2 over the last solar rotation and a new high for cycle 24). The planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.8). Three hour interval K indices: 21023243 (planetary), 22133232 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 10 spotted regions.
Region 11164 finally began to produce M flares. A major proton flare is possible before the region rotates over the northwest limb. Flares: M1.2/1F at 05:13, M1.4/1F at 08:05, M1.8 at 09:20, C4.9 at 10:21, long duration M3.7 event peaking at 20:12 (with an associated strong type II radio sweep and a very fast full halo CME) UTC. The latter event was a minor proton flare as well.
Region 11165 decayed slowly and was quiet. Observe that NOAA/SWPC has included S891 in this region.
Region 11166 began to develop again and has doubled its spot number in one day. A major flare is possible. Flares: long duration M1.9 event (associated with a partial halo CME) peaking at 14:30 UTC
Region 11167 decayed slowly and could soon become spotless.
Region 11169 developed slowly and could produce C flares.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S891] This region emerged in the southwest quadrant on March 3 and developed slowly the first days. Rapid development was observed on March 6 with many new spots emerging and at least 2 magnetic delta structures forming. On March 7 most of the spots merged into two large penumbrae. The trailing penumbra is very complex with a strong magnetic delta structure. A major flare is possible. Location at midnight: S17W82. Flares: C3.0 at 02:12, C5.0 at 04:39, C3.6 at 07:18, M1.5 at 07:54, C5.1 at 16:09, C7.6 at 18:23, M1.5 at 21:50 UTC.
[S896] Spots emerged in the northeast quadrant, just north of region 11166, on March 6. No significant changes were observed on March 7. Location at midnight: N16E09.
[S897] This region emerged on March 7 in the southwest quadrant. Location at midnight: S26W53
[S898] A tiny spot emerged in the southeast quadrant on March 7. Location at midnight: S13E37
[S899] A new region emerged in the northern hemisphere near the central meridian on March 7. Location at midnight: N19W04
Early on March 8 region S891 produced an M1.3/1N flare at 02:29 while a spotless plage region near the southeast limb was the source of a long duration M1.5 event (which was associated with a CME off the east limb) peaking at 03:58 UTC.
Minor update added at 11:05 UTC on March 8: Region S891 at the southwest limb produced a major M5.3 flare at 10:44 UTC. At this time no increase in the proton levels has been observed.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
March 5-6: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
March 7: A partial halo CME was observed following a long duration (LDE) event in region 11166. This CME could reach Earth on March 9/10, however, it will very likely be overtaken by the very fast CME produced by the M3.7 LDE in region 11164 late in the day. This CME could reach Earth on March 9 and cause minor to severe geomagnetic storming.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 8. A CME will likely arrive on March 9 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions, possibly with severe storming, that day and on March 10.
8th March 2011, 19:36
Gaddafi has 72 hours to step down, maybe a little light energy will convince him to do it peacefully...
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