PDA

View Full Version : Economics Orientation



Luke
26th August 2010, 14:27
If I'd have to point to one single issue of which Avalon Community members are pretty much ignorand, I'd say economics.
On the other hand there is no other single issue that affect lives of us all.

Why is such state of things? My bet is the education system, that forces it's subordinates to treat every subject as self contained "it" that does not relate to other "it"'s. Economy is a system, so it is forbidden, instead we have set of "separate" issues like history, logic, geography, philosophy, money, law, politics. And then we have media programming that shows those dealing with economy as some magicians from ivory towers etc. And we have alternative scene , where every single issue has "solution", but of course they make usually no sense, as they ignore whole spectrum of problem, which leads to quite bright people supporting complete balderdash of "resource based economy" "war economy" "economic dictatorship" "no-money economy" "sci-fi futurism""socialism" and whatever is popular on the forum these days.

What saddens me is to understand how economy works, you need about 20 minutes of attention. Failing that, you're simply doomed to fail for first feel-good con around. But it's really simple. Here it goes:

1. Economy is system of human actions.
2. It is designed to maximize energy efficiency in limited resource environment

That's all it is about.

We cannot create new resources (yet). Till we figure out how to create matter, we're stuck with using what we can obtain from environment we live in , or recycle what is already obtained.
Obtaining can mean mining raw resources or using product resources from other neighbouring systems, like ecosystem or Sun.
Problem is, every transformation has un-recoverable cost , called entropy. With closed system (as ours pretend to be) this means that after finite number of transformations there will be no more matter/energy for next transformation. System would be dead.
Only "if" seems to be how fast it'll happen.

E=mc2 says, that when we're dealing with matter we're dealing with energy really. So whatever we talk of "things" (products, tools, our body-vehicles) or "transformations" (using skills, building, destroying etc.) we are talking about energy

Every single being out there seems to naturally seek way to optimize it's behaviour in terms of energy efficiency (even if they do not know about it). Humans differ (or seems to differ, officially) from other life forms in that they such make decisions as a result of thought process not pre-designed feedback loops.

This brings us to matter of exchange.
Since we live in limited environment the things we need to live are not readily available. Arable land is in the valleys, stones in the mountains, fish in the rivers, trees in forest and so on. you may marry two of the things in one place, but you need to travel for other ones. Since you are not alone in the world, there is strong possibility there would be another that is currently using the resources you need. Also other peope have simply skills you dont't have to make things, or they do it faster/cheaper than you would be able to do. So there are four ways of obtaining goods:
1. You can obtain them in their natural occuring form, and make what you need (you need to invest your energy in finding resources; finding knowledge to transform them; learning skills corresponding to that knowledge)
2. You can exchange things/skills/knowledge with other people seeking what you have and they want (you trade your energy for energy of others, both parties acquire what they value more)
3. You can obtain what you want by force ( war, looting, pillaging, theft, robbery all fall in this category)
4. You can obtain what you want by means of appealing to other emotions, feelings etc (both beggary and conning fall in that category)

Generally first two ways are more energetically effective than two latter ones (not to mention karmic debts involved) So any sane economical system would emphasise them and not the options 3&4.

Problem is, there is no sane economic system in the works right now. Instead of promoting productivity and peaceful exchange we promote robbing and extorsion in the name of higher "cause" (though we give them better sounding names : taxes, benefits, shares etc) and adding insult to injury, we use resources without neither knowing how to produce them in first place or even understanding their role in the very system that support our own lives!

Moreso, one need to understand that economic problems are in the root a moral ones. Taking example from engineering world: every designer or builder need to make moral choices when they design/build: would this structural column bear the loads intended ? would the truss will have good length for place intended for it? would wall material will provide enough insulation? Every engineer worth his salt make such choices every day. So should any man involved in economics, as his bad moral decisions are as deadly as a structural column not strong enough.

To make good moral decisions one need to communicate. Without communication, you cannot obtain good information/knowledge in constantly changing world. What was good logical conclusion today, may not be so after some chain of events will take place.Also, values of things are subjective. Without good knowledge you cannot make good appraisal of goods involved in deal.
Problem is, one need to often rely on information from other people, not easy to verify. Worse, if information comes from source that is in some kind of superior/inferior relationship, 2nd Celine Law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celine%27s_laws#Celine.27s_Second_Law) kicks in, making sure information you have would be distorted, and it'll likely compromise your decision grounds. So in order to receive true knowledge, all communication must happen on plane of equality.

Without equal standing of all involved there can be no exchange. Voluntarism is implied. only Free people exchange. With one holding privilege there is no exchange, only extortion.

So any sane economic system would involve energy exchange among equal, free people, based on moral decisions rooted in knowledge
This way thing work smoothly. Notice we are talking free individuals. Sure, people make mistakes, but in sane economic system one know real fast that he made a mistake and he can minimize losses. With communication there is constant feedback. without privileges, one that made mistake looses energy to an extent of mistake made. You simply can't go more efficient by that.
Of course many people do not like it. You need to be vigilant, resourceful, know what is going on. Without that any wealth you have would be soon lost. That is why some people engage in social structures that block free exchange: to have wealth without all that burden of producing exchanging, inventing, being informed. People who want wage wars do not want to worry how to fund them. Nobility do not want to earn it's status and palaces. Imagine a war where general would need to pay for every bullet his soldiers shoot; it's simply impossible with free exchange, money for total war are always looted!

Now, economics mean money? Not at all, you see.
Money is just a tool of exchange. It's utility is rooted in simple empiric fact that two people often do not have things needed to balance deal. If one have boots to trade and need eggs, but one who have eggs need timber, there is a problem. Money is a solution to this problem. Money is a good that many people recognize as having a value, and are willing to exchange various goods for it. It's proxy for goods and skills one have/produce but the other side of the deal does not want. Using money you do not need to arrange complex barter exchanges. This makes system far more efficient and faster working. It saves people energy. It is also a claim on people's energy. Faking money one steals energy of all involved!
Traditional money follow these rules:
1. it's good many people recognize as having a value.
2. Hard to multiply
3. Easy to transport
Traditionally precious metals were used, as they cannot be produced at will and have high percieved value/size ratio. Also money is not wealth. You can be enourmously wealthy without having single unit "coin of the realm.
Now if you look at money this way, you'll see that nothing currently considered "legal tender" is money at all. Dollars, Euro, Francs, Yen, Renmibi are all electronic/paper constructs, so they can be multiplied at will, with value being only such as faith of those using them (thus they are called fiat money - ie. faith money). The second people would believe them worthless, they are!

Now off to a banks. Funny thing is, economy does not need banks at all. With real money (like based on precious metals) value of the "coin" raises when economy expands (bigger economy, same amount of money goods = lower prices, so you can obtain more goods per unit of money). You do not need accountants and bureaucratic machine- money under your mattress is gaining value automatically! (no wonder control freaks hate metallic money or "conflict" diamonds and other true curencies) Banks are reduced to safe storehouses at best, when you need them at all!

Investment bankers are another thing. Their role, traditionally, was to connect people with wealth that wanted to invest it with people with ideas how to invest wealth. Again, it's a very moral role, that allows new ideas to come into existence. But of course, even that is twisted now.

So look around you, see how things flow. Do you see people freely exchanging and producing OR you see people looting and mooching? or worse: people looting and mooching in the name of belief constructs? Where energy goes? This are all economic questions!

Feedback please!

sjkted
26th August 2010, 17:00
Hi SaiCO,

The economy cannot be separated from politics which in turn can't be separated from culture.

The issue of education is that nearly everything in the school system is propaganda. There are some items that are partially true, but even those are invalidated because we have a fiat money system. Ben Bernake (or the people who pull his strings) is literally the most powerful man on the planet, because his actions can crush markets, cause poverty or starvation to certain groups, and cause one group to benefit at another's expense. Any of the "economics" theory you may have read, or might be learned from more advanced study is largely bogus. It's kind of like saying we're all in a big poker game and here are the rules, but when this guy (the ruler) comes around, he can do pretty much anything he wants and get away with it.

I see all of these problems as a result of a manipulated currency. Could it be done with a stable currency? Possibly. But, the entire business system today is set up based on How can I screw over this (person, group, etc.) in order to line my pockets?

What most people don't understand is that even in a fiat (debt-based) economy, there's no need to charge interest. If this was the model everyone wanted, there's no reason we need banks. The government could freely lend money out to the public at 0% interest or extremely low interest.

Part of the reason for the banks is the separation of power as in a corporation. If the president's office was tied to the bank, when the people want to overthrow the president, they would take down the banking system at the same time. This way, we just end up spinning our wheels. Don't like President Bush? It's ok you can elect President Obama? Don't like Obama? Well, there's always 2012! Just don't focus your energy on the banking system.

--sjkted

Luke
26th August 2010, 18:08
What most people don't understand is that even in a fiat (debt-based) economy, there's no need to charge interest. If this was the model everyone wanted, there's no reason we need banks. The government could freely lend money out to the public at 0% interest or extremely low interest.
It could , but if you look at broader picture, you'll see that it'll create another distortion. Every govt will be forced to print money for every "worthy cause" End of it will inevitably be raise prices of goods ad infinium ie. hyperinflation.
True money is of great importance, but I see many concurent currencies as a solution. Private money, and let's see what people would use, do they choose SaiCOducats or free interest sjkted-script or land-based agroscript or w/e. No authority, no govt no fed. Freedom. Let the chips fall where they may. Economy left alone is holistic system.

Part of the reason for the banks is the separation of power as in a corporation.(...)Just don't focus your energy on the banking system.
What people fail to see is corporations, banks and governments are part of the same control structure, but neither are in control. The real few that benefit from this system are comfortably far from first pages, most of the time. Politics, Education, Extorsion system that passes for economy this day, are all faces of this control monster. As long as people would accept their AND any other man's right to be free, to choose freely and endure consequences of their choices, this will continue.

A question of morals, really. If you allow yourself right to control life of others, expect to your life to be controlled as well. simple as that.

Prerequisite of sustainable economy is equality in freedom of all participants.

sjkted
26th August 2010, 21:20
Absolutely. I agree with you on all counts. I'm just explaining why it is set up the way it is -- certainly not defending it.

Having the government create money to loan out would create a distortion -- I'm just pointing out that the banks are a level of corruption on top of the fiat money system which is not necessary, since they serve no real function other than the administration/control, which is the type of thing government tends to do. In this system, bank fees, interest, etc. are really just "taxes" paid to the central bank which is really just a corporation owned by the same people who own the government. In other words, it is a tax in the way it is assessed and how it is used (i.e. not for the public good).

--sjkted

Lost Soul
27th August 2010, 03:26
How an Economy Grows and Crashes by Peter Schiff. It explains the mess we're in today.

Luke
8th September 2010, 19:19
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala


In the most basic variant of the hawala system, money is transferred via a network of hawala brokers, or hawaladars. A customer approaches a hawala broker in one city and gives a sum of money to be transferred to a recipient in another, usually foreign, city. The hawala broker calls another hawala broker in the recipient's city, gives disposition instructions of the funds (usually minus a small commission), and promises to settle the debt at a later date.

The unique feature of the system is that no promissory instruments are exchanged between the hawala brokers; the transaction takes place entirely on the honor system. As the system does not depend on the legal enforceability of claims, it can operate even in the absence of a legal and juridical environment. Informal records are produced of individual transactions, and a running tally of the amount owed by one broker to another is kept. Settlements of debts between hawala brokers can take a variety of forms, and need not take the form of direct cash transactions.

Very interesting. A money transfer system without laws or nations o else needed. Based solely on honor, and functioning for like ... 1400 years? damn, beat that, western banking!

Deega
9th September 2010, 13:57
Hi SaiCO,

Feedback!

Great Tread, interesting and members should bring in their responses to it, for most if not all, our problems are within the economy (and politic, but it won’t be in this text). I have chosen parts here and there that I want to expand in personal thoughts. I don’t have any pretense, you did a great job and I offer you my thanks to comments.




“Economy is a system, so it is forbidden, instead we have set of "separate" issues like history, logic, geography, philosophy, money, law, politics. And then we have media programming that shows those dealing with economy as some magicians from ivory towers etc”.


I would differ here, economic system teaching in Public School (Canada at least) is part of the curriculum (very little though). At the University level, one can complete a full Baccalaureate, Master or PhD. I had the opportunity to take economic classes at Univesity, you should have seen disinterest, young women, young men were not interested, only if the course was mandatory (one course in a complete program, i.e., Baccalaureate in Business). So, unfortunately, we would have to instill a motivation factor to have young people in this discipline.

And on media programming, no wonder that when listening to the economic news that it seems abstract, and non-interesting….




“What saddens me is to understand how economy works, you need about 20 minutes of attention. Failing that, you're simply doomed to fail for first feel-good con around. But it's really simple. Here it goes:

1. Economy is system of human actions.
2. It is designed to maximize energy efficiency in limited resource environment”


Economy works - I think that it takes years to master, then it become easy to understand and explained! I would add to your first point that it is “human transactions”. If you don’t mind, on the second, I would add maximize output production in good and services with limited (rare) resources (partly true, I made a precision in lower text). And then, we would have to add the theories on supply/demand, the consumer behavior, the production cycles, the marketing, the management, the communication,….international transactions, Trade Balance, National Income, …, etc.

So, who care to learn all that…!, that were the comments of young people at that time, and I find this really unfortunate..!




“We cannot create new resources (yet). Till we figure out how to create matter, we're stuck with using what we can obtain from environment we live in , or recycle what is already obtained.
Obtaining can mean mining raw resources or using product resources from other neighbouring systems, like ecosystem or Sun”.


On the contrary, technology is able to create new resources, for example, the University of Columbia in New York have conducted testing for a while now on “hydroponic culture”, one can use technology to produce lettuce, carots, strawberry and others, so if we look at all the possible technologies there are in different industries, we might have a different perspective on “limited resources”. For now the technology don’t come cheaply but look at all the waste of war, it could serve that purpose, you will agree…!


And the second point you mentioned, recycling, it means that within a production cycle there is material that will be left to waste, and that shouldn’t be the case, the economy should be structured such that every parts of the production cycle wastes served another entrepreneur need (demand) elsewhere. But economic agents needs to talked to one another. And yes, uses of other sources of energy, the sun, water, air, natural resources, etc…, you’re right!




“Problem is, there is no sane economic system in the works right now. Instead of promoting productivity and peaceful exchange we promote robbing and extorsion in the name of higher "cause" (though we give them better sounding names : taxes, benefits, shares etc) and adding insult to injury, we use resources without neither knowing how to produce them in first place or even understanding their role in the very system that support our own lives!”


I don’t think that the system is insane, it’s only theory and practices in line with time and experience. I think that it the principle behind the system that is failing us, and also, we are part of the failure. The failinig principle, the first economic principle that stand to motivate exchanges is the notion of profit. And as we know, profit is power…. And as we know, power run the world…, and as we know power don’t go along very well with wisdom, equality, righteousness, etc. We are not satisfied with the way the world economy is run, aren’t we…?


So may I suggest that coming governments modify (inciting entrepreneurs) the principle that hold the economic going with the following one: the first economic principle should hold it ground on valuating life, valuating human, valuating natural resources, valuating Gaia and what come with it. Then, every transaction would have a sense, it serves to help someone somewhere.


On our failing the system, we are 3rd dimensional dualistic being, whatever system we will put up, it won’t function as we would idealized it, because, we will opposed when we should support, unfortunately! So, I would say humbly, that we have to change for this to occur.




“Moreso, one need to understand that economic problems are in the root a moral ones.”

There is Economic Ethic in a Baccalaureate program, and in Public School, I would need to check. But I have the same feeling as you on this, but we are caught up by our 3rddimensional dualistic body and mind.




“So any sane economic system would involve energy exchange among equal, free people, based on moral decisions rooted in knowledge “.


That would be great, equal, free people, based on moral decisions, all for that!




“Money is just a tool of exchange. It's utility is rooted in simple empiric fact that two people often do not have things needed to balance deal. . It's proxy for goods and skills one have/produce but the other side of the deal does not want. “


I concur with you on this and your rationale.


On bank and investments, here is a few comments.

Banks are the medium that take actions on the money supply and as you know the money supply influence (supply/demand) the value (generally speaking) of the currency. You need to have the proper amount of money in circulation such that it won’t depreciate rapidly if it is oversupply and vice-versa.

And Banks (Canada), are creator of money. To put it simply, when you put in saving in a bank, the bank has to send a certain amount (small percentage (4 or 5%) of the saving) to the National Bank to protect the saving, what is left, the bank may used it in loans, so when you make a loan, and you pay your monthly payments to completion, you’ve created money with the bank. I’m not trying to defend the banks, they can do it by themselves, but I wanted to clarified this.

On the investment side, entrepreneurs need credit line, need to borrow for capital projects, need to protect their investment by guaranteeing their contract, so investment bankers are necessary for the economy to run. And also here, I’m not in to defend investment bankers.

I hope I did not offend you with these comments, if I do, I’m sorry!

All my blessings.

Deega

Luke
9th September 2010, 14:45
Good points, but few things to clarify.

Economics taught in schools are mostly "Keyensian Babble". It's a map for economy, but not a good one, IMO. I prefer map by Austrian Economy School (http://mises.org/). Much more accurate, especially in current circumstances

Problems with fractional banking are also inheritable to "Keyens" system, but emerged before that. Current system emerged because bankers were afraid of runs, Keyens just gave them philosophical base to build on. Problem is, with funny money all that bubble stuff emerged. Boom-boost :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk

As for closed system: I mean literally. All we do is use energy within the system to transmutate matter found within the system. There is no energy input, but there is entropy. So there is a limit to how many transmutations you can do before running out of energy. On earth basis, it means there is finite amount of land, gold etc. Scarcity. Scarcity only can be countered when you'd be able to create energy (not using matter!) and then turn it into any matter. Not yet there, don't you think?

And for me government that governs best is that which governs least. Preferably not at all. Laissez nous faire (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laissez-faire)

Deega
9th September 2010, 18:00
Good points, but few things to clarify.

Economics taught in schools are mostly "Keyensian Babble". It's a map for economy, but not a good one, IMO. I prefer map by Austrian Economy School (http://mises.org/). Much more accurate, especially in current circumstances

Problems with fractional banking are also inheritable to "Keyens" system, but emerged before that. Current system emerged because bankers were afraid of runs, Keyens just gave them philosophical base to build on. Problem is, with funny money all that bubble stuff emerged. Boom-boost :

As for closed system: I mean literally. All we do is use energy within the system to transmutate matter found within the system. There is no energy input, but there is entropy. So there is a limit to how many transmutations you can do before running out of energy. On earth basis, it means there is finite amount of land, gold etc. Scarcity. Scarcity only can be countered when you'd be able to create energy (not using matter!) and then turn it into any matter. Not yet there, don't you think?

And for me government that governs best is that which governs least. Preferably not at all. Laissez nous faire (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laissez-faire)


Hi SaiCO,

Thanks for the reply, here is a few comments.

Like you said, Economic Philosophy has evolved through the years and sure Keynes was a great authors then, in the '70, '80 if my memory is right. It has evolved toward Monetarist with Milton Freidman in the '80, '90. Now a day, different authors (i.e., Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt, authors of Freakonomics, John Perkins, Author of Economic Hitman and Hoodwinked), produce interesting works, but still, the Classical influences.

Many thanks for your link, from a brief overview, I will have a serious look at it.

Fractional banking with derivatives and hedges will give a severe blow to the world economy, i wonder if they can survived this. Bush Senior, Clinton, Greenspan, are somehow responsible to open up the possibility on derivatives and hedges if my memory is correct.

It seems that many governments of the world encourage the uses of natural energy (Sun, Water, Air, Natural Resources), such that it may lead to a better use of energy in the economy hopefully. I also think that technology will contribute somehow in producing energy with lesser input with greater output. There is a guy in Australia that has produced a continuous motor with the uses of magnet, I don't know how good it is though.

Scarcity was one great notion in Classic Economy but now a day, with technology, it will probably become less potent on producing goods and services.

And "Laisser nous Faire" is a great concept that was the "moto" of americans in the '50, '60, '70, '80, '90, and still today but with a lesser degree. Now a days, we are in front of mountain of datas, not always predictable, and with China produces coming in, it change the logical analysis somehow, the economy try to follow the changes that we live in. I think that Laisser nous faire is a great concept, but in International business, it is too easy to get burn, I may be wrong...

All my blessings.

Deega

conk
10th September 2010, 14:42
Read the book, The Fourth Turning. This will make you want to buy a farm somewhere and hide behind your rifle.

My granny said that money allowed you to trade for some vegetables without having to carry the heavy pig to the market. You can swap the little coins for the veggies and the veggie vendor can go buy his own pig. Just think how far derivatives are from that concept.

Fredkc
10th September 2010, 15:22
Saico - "Keyensian Babble"

Make that "Keyensian Bubble Babble" ;)
Keyens didn't have a clue about how or why true "commerce" worked.

The notion that governments create wealth, or can manage same is laughable.

______________________________________
A fourth turning article from last Thursday:

Fourth Turning – Skies Darkening
by Jim Quinn

William Strauss and Neil Howe published The Fourth Turning in 1997. This was before the internet bubble, before the housing bubble, before 9/11, before the two wars in the Middle East, and before the financial collapse of 2008. They made a strong case for their generational theory of history. Everything that has happened since 1997 supports their theory. We are currently in the early stages of the Fourth Turning. In the last two chapters of their book, they describe the possibilities during a Fourth Turning. In the last section of the book they provide guidance on how to prepare responsibly for a Fourth Turning. Without preparation, the Fourth Turning is much worse. Below is a description of Fourth Turning possibilities, the preparations that were recommended by Strauss & Howe, and my assessment of how prepared we are as a country.

"What will America be like as it exits the Fourth Turning?"

[more... (http://www.lewrockwell.com/quinn/quinn38.1.html)]

Deega
10th September 2010, 20:03
Saico - "Keyensian Babble"

Make that "Keyensian Bubble Babble" ;)
Keyens didn't have a clue about how or why true "commerce" worked.

The notion that governments create wealth, or can manage same is laughable.

______________________________________
A fourth turning article from last Thursday:

Fourth Turning – Skies Darkening
by Jim Quinn

William Strauss and Neil Howe published The Fourth Turning in 1997. This was before the internet bubble, before the housing bubble, before 9/11, before the two wars in the Middle East, and before the financial collapse of 2008. They made a strong case for their generational theory of history. Everything that has happened since 1997 supports their theory. We are currently in the early stages of the Fourth Turning. In the last two chapters of their book, they describe the possibilities during a Fourth Turning. In the last section of the book they provide guidance on how to prepare responsibly for a Fourth Turning. Without preparation, the Fourth Turning is much worse. Below is a description of Fourth Turning possibilities, the preparations that were recommended by Strauss & Howe, and my assessment of how prepared we are as a country.

"What will America be like as it exits the Fourth Turning?"

[more... (http://www.lewrockwell.com/quinn/quinn38.1.html)]


Thanks Fred for the link,

William Strauss and Neil Howe in The Fourth Turning, America is not ready, the lessons will be harsh if it happens.

All my blessings.

Deega