Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
X-Flare!
From Presto Alert:
Quote:
Latest issue
:Issued: 2011 Nov 03 2042 UTC
:Product: documentation at
http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
The GOES X-ray monitor just observed an X1.9 flare peaking at 20:27 UT.
No image data is available at the moment, but giving its high level of
activity during the past 24h, the source region of this flare was
probably NOAA AR 11339. We expect more flaring at M- or X-class level
from this region.
http://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
Spaceweather.com:
Quote:
X-FLARE: Big sunspot AR1339 (described below) unleashed an X2-class solar flare on Nov. 3rd at 2027 UT. A movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the extreme ultaviolet flash. The flare created waves of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere, altering the normal progagation of radio waves over Europe and the Americas. Stay tuned for updates
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
"During the late hours of Nov 3, 2011 an X1.9 Solar Flare took place around Sunspot 1339. A CME was seen in the latest images at the time. It turns out that the expanding CME cloud may have resulted from a Solar Flare on the farside of the Sun at almost the same time."
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
What's up at spaceweather.com today:
Quote:
POLAR BLAST: A magnetic filament curling around the sun's north pole erupted during the early hours of Nov. 5th. Material propelled by the blast is heading out of the plane of the solar system and will not impact any planet. [SDO movie]
BIG SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR1339 has quieted since Nov. 3rd when it unleashed an X2-class solar flare. Nevertheless, it still poses a threat for powerful eruptions. The behemoth sunspot has a "beta-gamma-delta" magnetic field that harbors energy for more X-flares. Eruptions this weekend could be Earth-directed as AR1339 turns toward our planet.
But we did get two more M-class flares from 339 this morning, one at 3:35 UTC and another at 11:21 UTC.
Thought I'd share this spectacular view of today's sun (notice how the the sunspots are all interconnected by their electromagnetic arches....just stunning and astonishing):
http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/...7&argumentId=1
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
Wow! That is stunning Morning Song!
THE SUN TODAY: 5 November 2011 - ASTEROID THREAT
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
Quote:
Posted by
MorningSong
What's up at spaceweather.com today:
Quote:
POLAR BLAST: A magnetic filament curling around the sun's north pole erupted during the early hours of Nov. 5th. Material propelled by the blast is heading out of the plane of the solar system and will not impact any planet. [SDO movie]
BIG SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR1339 has quieted since Nov. 3rd when it unleashed an X2-class solar flare. Nevertheless, it still poses a threat for powerful eruptions. The behemoth sunspot has a "beta-gamma-delta" magnetic field that harbors energy for more X-flares. Eruptions this weekend could be Earth-directed as AR1339 turns toward our planet.
But we did get two more M-class flares from 339 this morning, one at 3:35 UTC and another at 11:21 UTC.
Thought I'd share this spectacular view of today's sun (notice how the the sunspots are all interconnected by their electromagnetic arches....just stunning and astonishing):
http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/...7&argumentId=1
Dang, I cannot see the photos. This is the message I get when I go to the link:
You don't have permission to access /solarsoft/latest_events/AIA20111105_192537_0171_2048.png on this server.
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
It is crazy, nearing. I have been to this thread several times today and sometimes the pict was there and sometimes it wasn't...so lets see if this works:
https://projectavalon.net/forum4/atta...631406&thumb=1
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
Quote:
Posted by
MorningSong
Well, darn. There is no image, just a little xbox with a question mark in it. Oh well, thanks for trying MorningSong, I appreciate it.
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
Here's another:
http://solarmonitor.org/data/2011110...107_013655.png
or just go here and have a look at some others just as pretty (click on AIA 171A or 193A):
http://solarmonitor.org/
I put the other one, that I am now seeing several times on the thread now, in my profile album... you can see it there, too.
PS: Notice that 4 new sunspots are present now...
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
Quote:
Posted by
MorningSong
Awesome, that one works. Wow, so pretty!
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
Last night a double ribbon filament erupted on the northwestern Earth-facing side of the sun (N30W35) producing a CME as well. The fireworks started at 22:30 and lasted until 00:44 UTC. The resulting CME will graze the Earth in the next 48 hours:
http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw...ntext_0180.gif
http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw...317_71139/www/
Sunspot 339 got showy immediately afterwards with a M 1.2 flare at 00:46 and then another M 1.4 at 6:14 UTC.
http://www.solarmonitor.org/region.p...7®ion=11339
All of sunspot 339's flares will be geo-effecttive now that it is sitting directly in front of Earth right now.
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
Hi Morningsong,
Thanks for all your posts. I always like to know what is going on with the sun. However I am a bit confused by conflicting info from different sources. Spaceweather for example reports no recent flares and reports only 01% for both M class and X class in the next 48 hours, while Solarmonitor reports only c class flares (no recent M), and 19% for X flares and 50% for M flares. Any idea why this is?
Thanks,c
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
Hey there, enfoldiedblue! Good question that I too would like to have answered as well! I think the answer lies in the fact that spaceweather is associated with NASA (never a straight answer!). That is why I always try to go beyond the "hype" to get to the real data...if I can find it... and cross reference with as many sites as possible.
In this thread, I have often expressed my frustration of how the info is sometimes hard to find, covertly embedded in frilly words, or blatantly withheld. In this world of deception and illusion, we must all fend for ourselves and spread the truth whenever possible... that's how I feel about it.
So keep up the antenaes and double check even my info....I am sometimes unwittingly wrong, too. lol
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
G'day MorningSong and enfoldedblue,
To give you both another data set to use.
IPS Oz provides:- Raw data from both Culgoora and Learmonth Observatories here,
- X-ray flares (larger than C-8) are reported here, and
- their main Space Weather page updates every couple of minutes and is located here.
Also NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) might be useful if looking for historical data.
Hope this helps the :smash: urges.
Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon
Addendum:
Just to add there's also CACTUS which detects CMEs as well as the ARBIS 3 program which analyses and uses data provided from the Aussie observatories.
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
A little over an hour ago there was an M-class flare mag 1.1.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray_1m.gif
Here is what spaceweather.com says about the filament eruption on the 7th-8th:
Quote:
AURORA WATCH: High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Nov. 10-11 when a coronal mass ejection could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. The source of the CME is a solar filament that erupted during the late hours of Nov. 7th. NOAA forecasters estimate a ~20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
I just read a report that for the next two weeks we are going to be vulnerable to a massive CME that could wipe out our electronics worldwide. This is the same region of the sun apparently that caused the massive telegraph shutdown in the 1800's. I guess we will just have to watch and wait. I haven't started building Faraday cages or covering stuff in aluminum foil yet.
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
Wouldn't surprise me. We're in that special part of our history where this sort of thing will start to happen. It will be what shapes us a a species going on - our "coming of age", so to speak.
Think of it as "growing pains"...
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
G'day All,
The 9th was an interesting 24 hour period that has produced two CME's that appear earth bound.
CACTUS reports of interest for that period:
'Details and graphs for CME0038|2011/11/09.'
'Details and graphs for CME0041|2011/11/09.'
LASCO C2 imagery is available and shows the series of CME's starting with the 08:36 halo and culminating with the 13:36 halo.
IPS OZ Report:
Quote:
SDO images show brightening in the vicinity of region 1342 (N17,E42) near the time of an M1.1 flare at 1335 UT. The SDO images also show events ~0844 UT in the south-east quadrant and in the north-east quadrant ~1529 UT. CMEs are observed in STEREO and LASCO images around 0900 UT and 1340 UT and are likely to be associated with the above events. Both CMEs are expected to be geo-effective. ACE data show solar wind parameters were mostly undisturbed. Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly undisturbed on 10 Nov although there may be a late increase in activity due to the ~1529 UT CME. Wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed 11 and 12 Nov due to CME effects.
iSWA
Quote:
CME warning:
Event Issue Date: 2011-11-09 19:22:54.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-11-12 07:12:26.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 18 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.2 Re
I think the above standoff distance is within geosynchronous satellite orbit.
Spectacular images available from SOHO Lasco C2.
08:36 Halo:
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov//data...024_c2_512.jpg
13:48 Halo:
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov//data...448_c2_512.jpg
Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
Holy crap..Get out the tin foil. :behindsofa:
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
Here's what spaceweather.com is saying about yesterday's flares:
Quote:
INCOMING CME? Yesterday, Nov. 9th around 1330 UT, a magnetic filament in the vicinity of sunspot complex 1342-1343 erupted, producing a M1-class solar flare and hurling a CME into space. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the progress of the expanding plasma cloud:
http://spaceweather.com/images2011/1...cme_strip2.jpg
Although the eruption was not squarely aimed at Earth, the CME is likely to deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on Nov. 11th or 12th. This could add to the impact of another CME already en route. The earlier cloud was propelled by a filament eruption (movie) on Nov. 7th and is also expected to deliver a glancing blow on Nov. 11th.
Analyses of these events are still preliminary, and the forecast may change. For now it is safe to say that high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Nov. 11-12
Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!
Huge Filament Eruption & M1.1 Solar Flare / Solar Watch Nov 10, 2011
A magnetic filament eruption that was detected as an M1.1 solar flare took place at 13:35 UTC Wednesday morning between active regions 11342 and 11342. A powerful Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) ensued and components may be Earth Directed where impact is expected November 13th.
