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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
Quote:
Posted by
Paul
Mike Adams has a Vimeo video on this page in which he explains what he thinks are a couple of key risks to Bitcoin, those being a "51% attack" and "quantum computing".
In my view, Mike does not know what he's talking about. He is hopelessly confusing RSA cryptography with Message Digests, and he has no clue what quantum computing can or might do. His discussions of the bit lengths of cryptography (256, 512, 1024, ...) nonsense, thanks to these confusions.
This article does a pretty good job of explaining the cryptography used by Bitcoin: Will Quantum Computing Destroy Bitcoin?.
Bitcoin actually doesn't even use RSA crypto, but rather elliptic curve crypto, and it then hides the public key that would be needed to steal a bitcoin on the blockchain behind a good hash.
Quantum computers are useless against good hashes, in which a single bit change in the input causes every bit of the output to change with a probability of 50% (the so called "avalanche" effect.) So bitcoins on the blockchain that used a one-time public key (didn't reuse a public key that had already been exposed by a previous expenditure on the blockchain) are entirely safe from quantum computing attacks.
Also, at least to the best publicly available knowledge, quantum computing is decades away from being able to hack the crypto used in cryptocurrencies. Presently publicized quantum computers can only solve toy problems that are much smaller than the crypto used in cryptocurrencies.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
One of the sharpest knives in the cryptocurrency drawer, Andreas Antonopoulos, is the primary source of inspiration behind this post, which explains the roles of various cryptography mechanisms in Bitcoin and their susceptibility to quantum computing: Antonopoulos Details Bitcoin’s Two Layers of Protection Against Quantum Computing.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
Quote:
Posted by
Paul
It's a distraction in my view that the NSA was the original source of the SHA256 hash (message digest) algorithm that is a critical component of Bitcoin and most other such cryptocurrencies.
For some more detail on the role of the NSA in this technology, a couple of highly respected cryptologists, Neal Koblitz and Alfred J. Menezes, wrote a paper a couple of years ago entitled “A Riddle Wrapped in an Enigma”.
Well known cryptologist Bruce Schneier recommended this paper on his blog, at Why Is the NSA Moving Away from Elliptic Curve Cryptography?, and Matthew Green provided a quite readable (for me, anyway) commentary and critique of this paper at A riddle wrapped in a curve.
I recommend starting with that last link, Green's paper, if you're further interested in this. It's fairly short and compared to much of this material, quite readable.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
Quote:
Posted by
Paul
The new CBOE and CME futures markets do have margin, and the crypto markets themselves are both ripe for manipulation, and have the potential for extreme and rapid volatility that could disrupt the Bitconi futures markets.
We're in for a wild ride ... one of several potential sources of extreme entertainment in the coming year.
I posted the above on 9 Dec 2017.
A day later, Gregory Mannarino, one of the sharpest Wall Street traders on Youtube, posted this video, saying the same thing.
Wall Street has opened up the CBOE and CME futures markets on Bitcoin so that they can make tons of money, speculating on Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin is (relative to the major stock and bond markets) quite lightly held and thinly traded, someone with deep pockets can drive the price of Bitcoin sharply higher, or sharply lower, by buying or selling more Bitcoin than the rest of the Bitcoin market can handle. If (when) they do this in coordination with placing way out of the money bets (futures options) on the price of Bitcoin, using margin, in the futures markets where the volume of trading is much higher than on the Bitcoin exchanges, they can make obscene amounts of money.Wall Street Is About To Rip The Face Off Bitcoin
Just think about that. Imagine you had the ability to drive Bitcoin price (in $US) up say by a factor of three in a few weeks, and then slam it down 80% in the following few weeks, and imagine that your "good buddy" had a large futures trading desk. You and your good buddy are going to be wealthy. When say $10 Billion can be traded in futures options in a market that has say $1 Billion of liquid trading volume, and when that $10 Billion can be leveraged (in the case of these two Bitcoin futures markets) say three to one, and when a futures contract can return several dollars for each dollar spent on it ... you're talking $100's of Billions of potential profits.
Rigging markets like this is what Wall Street does - it's their bread and butter.
We're in for a wild ride in the crypto space. Already in the last week, since my post and Gregory Mannarino's above video, the crypto-currency market prices have roughly doubled, doubled in a single week.
What does up comes down, and what rockets up can come smashing down. The Bitcoin exchanges, such as Coindesk, Bitfenix, Kraken and Gemini have repeatedly collapsed under just the volumes they seen at times in the last year. A major market panic will more than likely see anyone holding cryptocurrencies locked out of being able to do anything for a half a day or a day or more, by which time ... aaand it's gone!
~~~~~~~~~~
P.S. -- Though just because Wall Street is likely going to pump and dump cryptos, that doesn't mean I have any clue how high they will pump it. Their "job" is to get the majority of money in a market on the wrong side of the trade. If the majority of the money actively trading in a market is looking over its shoulder, expecting that there's a high risk of a major collapse, the dominant market manipulator can make the most money selling short options to the skittish traders ... and driving the market even higher.
The market can remain insane longer than you can remain solvent.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
Paul, what are trying to do with Crypto especially Bitcoin? i can see and few can replace current fiat currency/banks but just hated how it used as investment.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
I have written on how the bitcoin options trade is a non-event for the price of the crypto because it settles in cash.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
Quote:
Posted by
mgray
I have
written on how the bitcoin options trade is a non-event for the price of the crypto because it settles in cash.
When those placing the "side bets" (as cash settled options) have far deeper pockets, and probably far less naïveté, than those in the primary market, then one might expect that those placing the "side bets" will avail themselves of the opportunity to manipulate (drive sometimes higher, sometimes lower) the primary market, in order to make price points that favor their positions in the options market.
When the Mafia starts placing serious bets on my kid's soccer game ... I no longer trust that that game will be simply a fair contest of the soccer abilities of those children.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
Quote:
Posted by
apokalypse
Paul, what are trying to do with Crypto especially Bitcoin? i can see and few can replace current fiat currency/banks but just hated how it used as investment.
"what are trying to do" ... what are who trying to do ... you, me, the bankers, the elite bastards, the noobie crypto investor, the CIA, the NSA, ... :) ?
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
Crypto-crackdown: EU agrees new rules to curb bitcoin anonymity
Published on 18 Dec 2017
If we have something that decentralizes the money supply and threatens
the business model of the banks, there’s going to be pushback against it,
claims former MI5 intelligence officer Annie Machon.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
Quote:
Posted by
Paul
Quote:
Posted by
Paul
The new CBOE and CME futures markets do have margin, and the crypto markets themselves are both ripe for manipulation, and have the potential for extreme and rapid volatility that could disrupt the Bitconi futures markets.
We're in for a wild ride ... one of several potential sources of extreme entertainment in the coming year.
I posted the above on 9 Dec 2017.
A day later, Gregory Mannarino, one of the sharpest Wall Street traders on Youtube, posted this video, saying the same thing.
Wall Street has opened up the CBOE and CME futures markets on Bitcoin so that they can make tons of money, speculating on Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin is (relative to the major stock and bond markets) quite lightly held and thinly traded, someone with deep pockets can drive the price of Bitcoin sharply higher, or sharply lower, by buying or selling more Bitcoin than the rest of the Bitcoin market can handle. If (when) they do this in coordination with placing way out of the money bets (futures options) on the price of Bitcoin, using margin, in the futures markets where the volume of trading is much higher than on the Bitcoin exchanges, they can make obscene amounts of money.
Wall Street Is About To Rip The Face Off Bitcoin
Just think about that. Imagine you had the ability to drive Bitcoin price (in $US) up say by a factor of three in a few weeks, and then slam it down 80% in the following few weeks, and imagine that your "good buddy" had a large futures trading desk. You and your good buddy are going to be wealthy. When say $10 Billion can be traded in futures options in a market that has say $1 Billion of liquid trading volume, and when that $10 Billion can be leveraged (in the case of these two Bitcoin futures markets) say three to one, and when a futures contract can return several dollars for each dollar spent on it ... you're talking $100's of Billions of potential profits.
Rigging markets like this is what Wall Street does - it's their bread and butter.
We're in for a wild ride in the crypto space. Already in the last week, since my post and Gregory Mannarino's above video, the crypto-currency market prices have roughly doubled,
doubled in a single week.
What does up comes down, and what rockets up can come smashing down. The Bitcoin exchanges, such as Coindesk, Bitfenix, Kraken and Gemini have repeatedly collapsed under just the volumes they seen at times in the last year. A major market panic will more than likely see anyone holding cryptocurrencies locked out of being able to do anything for a half a day or a day or more, by which time
... aaand it's gone!
~~~~~~~~~~
P.S. -- Though just because Wall Street is likely going to pump and dump cryptos, that doesn't mean I have any clue how high they will pump it. Their "job" is to get the majority of money in a market on the wrong side of the trade. If the majority of the money actively trading in a market is looking over its shoulder, expecting that there's a high risk of a major collapse, the dominant market manipulator can make the most money selling short options to the skittish traders ... and driving the market even higher.
The market can remain insane longer than you can remain solvent.
bitcoin's overt dominance ends tonight, so pump and dump schemes with bitcoin, to crash and control the market, that begins it end tonight.
Bitcoin dominance will fall below the mental threshold of 50% of the crypto coin market, tonight. As of this writing it is 50.3%, it was 50.6% a few hours before.
What this means is that the market is about to explode and be out of bitcoin dominance and bitcoin control.
Trying to crash bitcoin, will only cause a thousand other coins to emerge in equal shares of dominance.
it's happening right now. Literally, right now. Big crashes in bitcoin will cause the financial flow to move away from bitcoin into the other board leaders.
This began happening today.
The target is going scattered and wide, if they try.... they'll only be dominating an empty bucket.
It is becoming safe to get out of bitcoin as a central crypto currency for 'safety' reasons. So the central point of focus for market manipulation is almost gone, already. It is eroding...by the minute. Literally.
I'd expect that as a point of record, that this will be solidly real, a known thing, approx 2 weeks from now.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
just create accounts to join crypto investment world and reading about exchanges, now i feel abit sick about it. i feel this whole crypto thing like how elites get rid of gold with fiat dollar, some sort of setup for whatever they implement in the future. I feel into the game that have roll out with illusion of currency, David Icke video talked about money popup in my head where Money is illusion nothing but bunch of number on computer screen.
I know bitcoin jump from 3k to 15k+ and altcoin follow throught but reluctant to join and even no still not joining...if i told relative about this they said im crazy but not really about currency. i don't feel like missing out or regret it.
congratulation who ever join the fun earn big amount of money
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
Quote:
Posted by
Carmody
Trying to crash bitcoin, will only cause a thousand other coins to emerge in equal shares of dominance.
Agreed.
I noticed that pattern several days ago, and rebalanced my itsy-bitsy crypto portfolio, moving a significant portion out of Bitcoin into several other Alt-Currencies.
... sweet :).
(Still ... those playing the Bitcoin futures markets may be winning and losing their own large piles of money.)
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
I bought £60 worth of bitcoin a couple years ago. Got out when it hit £10,000. I tried diversifying my portfolio by putting some into litecoin, ripple, doge, etheream etc...but my bank froze my account because they thought I was laundering money :facepalm: (the very next day litecoin exploded by 300%, missed out on that crypto goldrush).
Having my account frozen though has put me off investing in the cryptocurrencies. Instead, I've bought some gold and silver and I'm wondering if anyone has thought of investing in companies that are developing the blockchain technologies themselves, as oppose to the digital currency? A company called 360 blockchain can be bought for £0.30 per share, and looks like it may be set to capitalise on the emerging cryptocurrency market. I'm no professional investor though, so just wondering if you guys, with more experience, have any advice, warnings or concerns about investing in the crypto technology markets.
I do heed Catherine Austin Fitts warnings about crypto-technologies, but at the same time, I see a possibility that it may expand beyond elite control in a similar way to how the internet did when it was released to the public. Guess I'm just hedging my bets.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
From the 1967 movie "The Graduate" ("Benjamin" was played by Dustin Hoffman):- Mr. McGuire: I just want to say one word to you. Just one word.
- Benjamin: Yes, sir.
- Mr. McGuire: Are you listening?
- Benjamin: Yes, I am.
- Mr. McGuire: Plastics.
- Benjamin: Exactly how do you mean?
- Mr. McGuire: There's a great future in plastics. Think about it. Will you think about it?
Well ... I have one word to say here. Just one word.
Hashgraph.
I've been studying distributed algorithms for a long time. I'm even a co-author on a published paper on them: [Burns 1982] J. E. Burns, P. Jackson, N. A. Lynch, M. J. Fischer, and G. L. Peterson: Data Requirements for Implementation of N-process Mutual Exclusion Using a Single Shared Variable, Journal of the ACM, 29(1), Jan. 1982. I contributed the key algorithm to the result in this paper.
I have been consistently doubting that the blockchain algorithms, such as which Bitcoin and most of these other alt-coins are built on, is the right distributed ledger algorithm to succeed in the future. It's too cumbersome, expensive and slow, and that fundamentally cannot be fixed.
I was sketching out on my own some inklings of what a successful distributed ledger algorithm might look like, though I hadn't gotten far yet in that effort.
Hashgraph is it.
===
A famous cartoon from the New Yorker:http://cdn.dltj.org/wp-content/uploa...er-cartoon.jpg
The quote line for a new twist on that cartoon:On the hashgraph, nobody knows you're a bot.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
Quote:
Posted by
Jayke
I bought £60 worth of bitcoin a couple years ago. Got out when it hit £10,000. I tried diversifying my portfolio by putting some into litecoin, ripple, doge, etheream etc...but my bank froze my account because they thought I was laundering money :facepalm: (the very next day litecoin exploded by 300%, missed out on that crypto goldrush).
Dang - that kinda sucks.
I have a long history, from back when I lived a different life in Silicon Valley, of working with banks and financial institutions, and I still have the skills, accounts, and history to successfully work with these institutions and agencies, and to comply with various such financial regulations, which are becoming increasingly onerous in the crypto world.
Those who are less well banked than I am will end up being channeled into reliance on a few large institutions that serve as gateways into the cryptocurrency, distributed ledger world ... and they will of course end up paying larger fees, the less sophisticated they are, to participate. Such "toll booths" are part of the landscape of all major forms of infrastructure.
Quote:
Posted by
Jayke
Having my account frozen though has put me off investing in the cryptocurrencies. Instead, I've bought some gold and silver and I'm wondering if anyone has thought of investing in companies that are developing the blockchain technologies themselves, as oppose to the digital currency? A company called 360 blockchain can be bought for £0.30 per share, and looks like it may be set to capitalise on the emerging cryptocurrency market.
Based solely on my comments in my previous post about hashgraphy, I would not invest long term in anything involved with mining Bitcoin or other blockchain currencies.
Distributed ledgers will rule for a wide variety of financial and other contractual obligations and transactions, but they won't be blockchain based.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
CAn I throw a negative motivating factor in here?
IF the Cabal still intend to crash and force radical reorientation in the global economic systems, it's very likely that they first want to create a firwall for them to hide behind when the blaming kicks off.
IF bricks and mortar banks close or become extemely disfunctional the bankers will be blamed severely.
IF something like bitcoin ( origin still unknown ) is more or less in place, and relying on internet bandwidth to function, a crisis in that bandwidth could be blamed for whatever 'crash' occures.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
Hashgraphs! Just been watching some of Leemon Bairds presentations, that guy is awesome! For the first time since all this blockchain craze began, I now have a decent grasp of what any of this tech actually means or represents. Your wisdom on the topic is greatly appreciated, Paul, thanks for the heads up.
You know my dad spent his entire career working for the British Ministry of Defense as a Network Engineer. He’s retired now but he’s still got the giant, doorstopper-sized training books on the topic. I remember flicking through them when I was younger and thinking how curious it was that the Network protocols mirror human, face to face, social dynamics. Bairds gossip promulgation system really helped a lot of things click into place for me in that regard.
Still not sure how the highest tier of security would be named after an empire that fell though? (Asynchronous Byzantine)
But I can see how the hashgraph system could make a lot of the existing internet power structures feel uneasy, and a little inadequate even. It’ll be interesting to see if hashgraph makes it into the mainstream or if there’s pushback to delay its implementation on a wider scale. It seems like a technology the centralising powers of the elite would struggle to monopolise.
Anyway, I recently logged onto my Coinbase account and anyone who held bitcoins during the launch of Bitcoin Cash back in August 2017, had their wallet cloned. Meaning whatever percentage of bitcoins you owned back then, you now hold the same amount of coins in Bitcoin Cash. Basically, I’ve been given my initial £60 investment back and it’s now being spun through the same pump and dump scheme but in an offshoot of the bitcoin currency. Looks like I’m back in the crypto currency game after all.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
id also recommend to check out mike's previous seven episodes. imho hashgraph tech is promising, but the code is not open source.. there will most likely be open source alternatives to this. time will show.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
Quote:
Posted by
Paul
Quote:
Posted by
Carmody
Trying to crash bitcoin, will only cause a thousand other coins to emerge in equal shares of dominance.
Agreed.
I noticed that pattern several days ago, and rebalanced my itsy-bitsy crypto portfolio, moving a significant portion out of Bitcoin into several other Alt-Currencies.
... sweet :).
(Still ... those playing the Bitcoin futures markets may be winning and losing their own large piles of money.)
There's now a hole in the crypto system. The funds have a point of where they can now be externally pumped and dumped. Like a one way flap valve, out into the futures market.
So that crash has begun... of the money people coming in an sweeping up, and thus damaging what was previously a closed ecosystem.
The closed ecosystem worked on pump and dump, but the safety zone to rest the assets was bitcoin. Now the safety is breached and the funds are leaking out.
It has whipped the market around. Never mind the coinbase bitcoin cash fiasco, it's not critical to the analysis, but merely an involved bystander of a different bit of motion.
So now the cypto coin market is floundering and looking for a new safety zone for the prior ramping scheme that everyone was in on.
Thus the bitcoin clones attempting to emerge and push bitcoin off the stage with faster lower cost transaction times and the built in room to expand.
It's can't be ethereum, it can't be bitcoin gold or bitcoin cash, I feel. I think it will be something that is purposely open ended akin to ethereum, but...without ethereum's transaction time and cost issues. It has to be a pure cash or coin oriented platform, with a good base for record keeping but also open ended and low cost schemes for transaction costs and maintenance systems. It has to be built for near unchecked growth. Forget that. Unchecked growth.
The issue being that previously felt to be 'minor' issues will be amplified 10x, 100x, 1000x as the given chosen (via consensus use, etc) safety zone evolves. Forks are the current method of overcoming these problems, but they are not favorable to the rest of the market.
Now that bitcoin is dropping out of prominence and thus influence, this sort of prior 'me me me' centric focus of fixing problems that forking and such try to use to address the issue..those considerations are being laid bare to the crypto market users and ecosystem...and they (users and ecosystem) will be more careful and more observant of the 'safety zone' issues.
What I mean by safety zone, is the idea of the rest area on the sea of crytpo, where value can be held in a rest period, when sleeping or doing real world stuff. That rest period has to be stable and unchanging or in a even more desirable area of micro or steady increase in this given 'bank vault' that is used to 'hold' the given value.
The money goes out, it does it's pump and dump thing to the various proposed victims, they accrue value or lose value depending on their perceived state of existence in the ecosystem, and then the money returns to the rest area. Cyclic, by the day, the hour or the given aspect of the given crypto.
That formula WAS working when the system was sealed off, on it's own. Now it is broken. the only way for crypto to come roaring back to a stable life, is to exclude bitcoin from use as anything other than a standard game card, and designate some other crypto that is not involved in the futures market, and has the dependability and has none of the problems that will become prominent as time goes on and it multiplies 10x-100x-1000x-10000x in scope.
Who will be the new king?
The majority of users are small users, the altcoin ecosystem is now over half the value. Bitcoin will likely begin to be shunned by the altcoin ecosystem. It's not about the financial size of the players and their pump and dump trucks running roughshod over the small players, but that the small players outnumber the big players by a factor of somewhere between 100 to 1000 to one - or more. And the small players, who will always be entering the system and increasing in scope.....those small players cannot stand for it.
The altcoin ecosystem will likely crown the new king over the next short while. Nothing is even remotely shaping up yet, but the contenders are being lined up. People are creatures of habit and they will attempt to play bitcoin, but I think that bitcoin is a dying component of this developing ecosystem.
To avoid the dutch tulip scenario, the open ended safety zone of near perfection will have to emerge and stay far away from the current financial system. Something like a properly done dogecoin, for example. That little oddity (dogecoin) is actually quite interesting. Humans being what they are and not having a very large circle of logic and musing and no longview, they will fixate on the fast gainers that are primed for plucking, but that is the way back to the problems that exist today.
So it will be the long game punctuated by moments of the inevitable cyclic ruination of the fast gainers. Standard stock market rules and games, which are dictated by the emotional based fears and desires of the players involved - what their bell curve of awareness and mental reach is centered on.
Essentially, the crytpo world excludes bitcoin, or the market dies. The harsher statement, it is.... but the reality dances and appears as something like that. Crypto players have no access to the futures market and they simply WILL NOT STAND for external systems whipping their world about. Either bitcoin is OUT or the crypto market ends.
The futures market is tied to a system that is 100x bigger, and is chock full of snakes and animals in suits, with a 300 year long history of development and inbreeding. They think of bitcoin as a snack that is grown in size and they can rape it to death every time it looks like it is ready to be harvested.
Well, the sheep and the field (Crypto world outside of bitcoin) can move way from the bait and the food and find food and peace some place else. Which they will indeed do. The move to put bitcoin on the futures market will very likely end bitcoin, IMO. Each whipping and beating of the now larger mass altcoin market by bitcoin, only cements bitcoin's end of being influential or involved. This crypto ecosystem is cyclic, by the day, literally... so this ending won't be long in coming. Weeks or close to something like that timeframe. Not years, not months...but weeks..
This crypto is all new to me, I stayed completely out of it until a few weeks ago, knowing absolutely zero in the details department (seriously..a very sharp learning curve). I'm still finding my sea legs in it, but I think I'm getting a handle on it.
Reading about the crytpo market, and not getting much out of it.... oddly enough, this little analysis of mine could actually be a published article, like a paid financial newsletter. Just a whacky side thought when looking at the crypto world. Lots going on but not much nailing on the head of the issues seen.
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Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans
Eg, Coinomi's emergence, combined with Shapeshift and Changelly, the three growing exponentially as an ecosystem, is set to turn bitcoin to dust in the next short while.
The money is in the manportable interface, tied to mutability. Which the three now deliver. Screw the trading platforms, they have no influence over the average player, as the average player evolves into what they are going to be.