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Thread: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Quote Posted by Star Mariner (here)
    [...]
    It's also interesting to note the wild Co2 swings over time, unconnected to human activity. Though it does correlate with strong temperature gains...
    Check this post: https://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...=1#post1235341 especially the addendum where the data studied show that the temperature increase precedes the CO2 increase by 600-800 years... so that, as I posted overthere, the sequence is as follows:

    Volcanic/meteoritic/cosmic increase in dust concentration ---> increase in temperature ---> increase in atmospheric CO2
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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Making that connection now, excellent Hervé, thanks!
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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Now, for the dust, temperature and solar activity entanglement, from: Carbon Dioxide and Air Temperature: Who Leads and Who Follows?:
    Even if CO2 has largely followed air temperature over the past 800,000 years, could it now become the leader in the 21st Century?

    To address this question, Soon (2005) compared Arctic-wide surface air temperature anomalies with annual values of CO2 obtained from the climate modeling group at NASA GISS. The Arctic region is particularly important as climatologists widely agree that changes in air temperature are more pronounced in high latitudes due to the ice/snow-albedo feedback (i.e., melting ice and snow uncovers a darker underlying land surface that absorbs more solar radiation which increases the air temperature even more), the fact that cold air has very little moisture even when saturated (water vapor has a higher specific heat than dry air), and that it takes more energy to change the temperature of warm air by 1K than cold air (i.e., the derivative of the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation law).

    The plot below from Soon (2005) shows the graph of yearly CO2 and Arctic-wide surface air temperature anomalies from 1875 to 2000. Changes in atmospheric CO2 fail to explain the warming between 1920 and 1960 and the percent of variance in air temperature explained by CO2 (i.e., the square of the correlation) is less than 20%. When smoothed by a decadal filter (to reduce the effects of short-term climate variability), the explained variance increases only to 22%.





    By contrast, the graph of total solar irradiance (i.e., incoming solar energy) and Arctic-wide surface air temperature anomalies versus year (below) shows a much better correspondence with more than 40% of the variance in air temperature explained by total solar irradiance. But when the decadal filter is applied, the explained variance increases to nearly 80%.

    While correlation certainly does not imply causality, it is very easy to argue on a physical basis that changes in solar irradiance should drive changes in atmospheric surface air temperature. Nevertheless, we can conclude that CO2 is not as good at predicting changes in Arctic-wide surface air temperature as is solar variability.



    ========================================================


    So, the deciding factor for dust in polar regions is this one:

    Quote The Arctic region is particularly important as climatologists widely agree that changes in air temperature are more pronounced in high latitudes due to the ice/snow-albedo feedback (i.e., melting ice and snow uncovers a darker underlying land surface that absorbs more solar radiation which increases the air temperature even more)
    Anyone having observed snow melting would have noticed its surface becoming "dirtier and dirtier" due to the dust, soot, particle residues left behind the melted snow as a concentrated top layer and facilitating a speedier melting of the snow it covers...

    Since the recorded paleo-temperatures are coming from Greenland's and Antarctica's ice cores, the correlation between dust ---> temperature increase is thoroughly logical and rational but not necessarily applicable to the more temperate to equatorial areas where "dust clouds" may generate "Years without Summers."


    PS: I finally found what their "dust" is: they call it "Desert Dust" as a result of turbulent winds sweeping barren, cold desertic areas (Loess, in other words) which they correlate to glacial episodes as compared to "interglacial" where there is little of that dust with higher surface temperature.

    ... oh, well, I tried...
    Last edited by Hervé; 16th July 2018 at 15:54.
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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Mysterious Substance and 'Devilry' Blamed for 3-Hour 'Solar Eclipse' in Russia

    By Brandon Specktor, Senior Writer | July 23, 2018 04:30pm ET

    Quote
    The Siberian Times‏ @siberian_times

    Sun blanked out in Arctic Siberia. Locals in north of Yakutia said daylight was completely gone for several hours http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/sun-blanked-out-in-arctic-siberia/ …










    6:23 PM - 21 Jul 2018
    7 replies 75 retweets 119 likes
    For the Russian republic of Yakutia (also called Sakha) — a chunk of Siberia that's home to the coldest cities in the world — July is a welcome reprieve from the seven-month winter that rampages from October through April. It's a rare time of year when locals can step outside without the risk of their spectacles freezing to their faces, a time when the merciful sun can hang in the sky for more than 20 hours a day instead of less than 2.

    Imagine the confusion and disappointment, then, when locals in at least two districts of Yakutia stepped outside Friday afternoon (July 20) and saw the sun completely blotted out for 3 hours. [Photos: 2017 Great American Solar Eclipse]

    According to the regional news site Yakutia 24, the Eveno-Bytantaysky and Zhigansky districts of Yakutia inexplicably plunged into 3 hours of mysterious darkness between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. local time on Friday. Photos provided by bewildered locals show little more than the black shadows of trees and buildings cast against a reddish haze of sky. Adding to the ominous atmosphere, the air seemed to be thick with a grimy haze of black dust.

    "It was impossible to be in the street," witnesses of the bizarre event told the news site Sakha Daily. Other locals reported that it was suddenly pitch-black in their homes, that the mysterious smog turned barrels of water into barrels of mud and that nearby lakes emerged from the eclipse covered in a filthy, black layer of pollution.

    … Happy summer!

    So, what was behind this mysterious dirty eclipse? While one local blamed the incident on "devilry," there is a likelier culprit: the multiple forest fires burning around Yakutia and elsewhere in Siberia, The Siberian Times reported.



    Between July 5 - 9, 2018, a massive smoke plume released by a series of Siberian wildfires traveled halfway across the world, crossing through Alaska and into central Canada. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

    As NASA's Earth Observatory reminds us, it's wildfire season in Siberia, and hundreds of fires have already burned tens of thousands of acres of forest since May. While most of these fires are hundreds of miles away from the dust-eclipsed towns in question, smoke and aerosols released by some of these fires have been tracked halfway around the world. One cluster of fires sparked on July 3 produced a smoke plume so massive that it traveled more than 5,000 miles (8,000 kilometers) in the span of 11 days, passing across northeastern Russia, through Alaska and into central Canada before beginning to weaken.

    Plumes this large can easily shade the land below and fill the air with polluting gases, NASA scientists wrote. However, as of today (July 23), no firm conclusions about the crud eclipse in Yakutia have been reached.

    [...]
    Originally published on Live Science.
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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Yikes, the recent mooreland fires in UK have included a new ingredient according the this article - the actual PEAT/SOIL was sufficiently dry to ignite and burn at deep levels where it is hard to extinguish....

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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Massive sandstorm engulfs the city of Golmud, China

    Tiffany Lo Daily Mail
    Thu, 26 Jul 2018 14:19 UTC


    Apocalyptic scenes of dust cloud rolling over a city in north China are captured by residents

    A huge sandstorm yesterday swept across a city in northern China within minutes.

    Apocalyptic video footage, taken by residents, shows how the cloud of thick dust more than 100 feet tall engulfed the city of Golmud in Qinghai Province.

    The sandstorm was accompanied by gale-force winds of up to 20.7 metres per second, according to China Global Television Network.

    Sandstorms, affected by a trail of cold air at ground level, have battered parts of China this week.

    The film clips, released by China Central Television, show an apocalyptic sight of dust cloud rolling in over the city.

    The dust cloud appeared over 50 metres high (164ft) and covered the city in a few minutes.

    According to China Central Television, the storm brought down trees, caused damage and reduced visibility to under 600 metres (1,968ft) in the city and under 100 metres (328ft) in suburb area.

    Golmud police issued warnings through loudspeakers and flashed emergency lights to remind road users to drive slowly.

    Drivers were told to drive at a maximum speed of 25 miles per hour, stated the report.

    The sandstorm comes just days after are heavy rainfall pummelled Golmud highlands and regions around Tuotuo River.

    Golmud meteorological authority issued thunderstorm alerts today and suggested residents to stay indoors.

    Local government has not received any reports of casualties.
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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    The main "Greenhouse gas," no-one seems to pay attention to, that affects weathers, local and global: Water Vapor:

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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Talking of the major player in the greenhouse gases family, Water Vapor, the following video provides answers to all sorts of questions regarding the seeding of clouds, the connection with solar activity, earth magnetic and electric fields and why rain can fall "in sheets":

    ... thanks to the "Electric Universe" perspective

    ... which ties in with the changes in our solar system suspected to be the effects of an interaction with a suspected solar binary twin acting as the other pole of a cosmic capacitor.
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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Quote Posted by Hervé (here)
    Talking of the major player in the greenhouse gases family, Water Vapor, the following video provides answers to all sorts of questions regarding the seeding of clouds, the connection with solar activity, earth magnetic and electric fields and why rain can fall "in sheets":

    ... thanks to the "Electric Universe" perspective

    ... which ties in with the changes in our solar system suspected to be the effects of an interaction with a suspected solar binary twin acting as the other pole of a cosmic capacitor.
    Thanks Hervé. I really enjoyed the video and learned a lot.

    It deals with:
    - not only water, ice and vapor, but a fourth phase of water EZ, the necessary condition for the freezing of water.

    - evaporation.

    - condensation. What makes clouds?

    - precipitation: - rain is pulled towards the earth, it doesn't fall. There is a pulling force that brings it to the earth.

    - wind.

    - and weather exotica, like hurricanes and tornadoes.

    This presentation by Gerald Pollack offers a fresh overview of possible mechanisms of weather. It will propose answers to these questions and offer insights into possible mechanisms of common, as well as exotic, weather phenomena such as hurricanes and tornadoes.
    Weather, after all, is a phenomenon centered on water — if EZ (fourth-phase) water exists, then it must play some role in those phenomena. The question we address is how, and Dr. Pollack postulates that charge plays a central role.

    The central feature of all of this is 'charge'. Negative charge and positive charge.
    We have to realize that it all depends on the electrical charge of the atmosphere and that the universe is really electrical !

    https://www.thunderbolts.info/wp/

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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Quote Posted by Deux Corbeaux (here)
    [...]
    Thanks Hervé. I really enjoyed the video and learned a lot.
    [...]
    We have to thank Paul for its discovery and posting
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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Mystery in the mesosphere: Noctilucent clouds TRIPLE compared to last August

    Spaceweather.com
    Thu, 16 Aug 2018 04:06 UTC


    NLCs on August 14, 2018 @ Hamnoy, Norway. © Paul Knightley


    Anthony Watts Watts Up with That
    Wed, 15 Aug 2018 19:50 UTC



    Via NASA: extra water vapor in the mesosphere is creating more glowing nighttime clouds


    This summer, something strange has been happening in the mesosphere. The mesosphere is a layer of the atmosphere so high that it almost touches space. In the rarefied air 83 km above Earth's surface, summertime wisps of water vapor wrap themselves around specks of meteor smoke. The resulting swarms of ice crystals form noctilucent clouds (NLCs), which can be seen glowing in the night sky at high latitudes.

    And, no, that's not the strange thing.

    Northern sky watchers have grown accustomed to seeing these clouds in recent years. They form in May, intensify in June, and ultimately fade in July and August. This year, however, something different happened. Instead of fading in late July, the clouds exploded with unusual luminosity. Kairo Kiitsak observed this outburst on July 26th from Simuna, Estonia:

    Taken by Kairo Kiitsak on July 26, 2018 @ Simuna, Estonia. © Kairo Kiitsak
    "It was a mind-blowing display," says Kiitsak.

    "The clouds were visible for much of the night, rippling brightly for at least 3 hours."
    Other observers saw similar displays in July and then, in August, the clouds persisted. During the first half of August 2018, reports of NLCs to Spaceweather.com have tripled compared to the same period in 2017. The clouds refuse to go away.

    Researchers at the University of Colorado may have figured out why.
    "There has been an unexpected surge of water vapor in the mesosphere," says Lynn Harvey of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP).
    This plot, which Harvey prepared using data from NASA's satellite-based Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument, shows that the days of late July and August 2018 have been the wettest in the mesosphere for the past 11 years:


    "July went out like a lion!" says Harvey.
    In addition to being extra wet, the mesosphere has also been a bit colder than usual, according to MLS data. The combination of wet and cold has created favorable conditions for icy noctilucent clouds.

    Harvey and her colleagues are still working to understand how the extra water got up there. One possibility involves planetary wave activity in the southern hemisphere which can, ironically, boost the upwelling of water vapor tens of thousands of miles away in the north. The phenomenon could also be linked to solar minimum, now underway. It is notable that the coldest and wettest years in the mesosphere prior to 2018 were 2008-2009-the previous minimum of the 11-year solar cycle.


    SOTT Comment:
    Late-season surge in Noctilucent Clouds produces stunning displays
    In 2017 a heat wave in the mesosphere melted those crystals, causing a brief "noctilucent blackout." Could something similar, but opposite, be happening now? Perhaps a cold spell in the mesosphere is extending the season.
    In July an English astronomer reported photographing more noctilucent clouds in six weeks than in the last three years.

    See also: Are noctilucent clouds increasing because of the cooling climate, and the rise of fireball and volcanic activity?



    With the rise in rare and unexplained phenomena in our skies, clearly something is changing in our atmosphere:
    Last edited by Hervé; 16th August 2018 at 21:52.
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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    ...

    Darn! Who would have ever thought of that!

    Napoleon's defeat at Waterloo partly caused by massive volcano 'short circuiting' electrical current in atmosphere, study suggests

    Samuel Osborne The Independent
    Thu, 23 Aug 2018 07:00 UTC



    Napoleon tries to lead the final assault by his Imperial Guard at the Battle of Waterloo on 18 June, 1815 © Hulton Archive/Getty Images

    Heavy rain across Europe played key role in French emperor's defeat at Battle of Waterloo

    A gigantic volcanic eruption in Indonesia led to the wet and muddy conditions which contributed to Napoleon Bonaparte's defeat at the Battle of Waterloo, a study has suggested.

    Two months before the battle changed the course of European history, Mount Tambora erupted on the Indonesian island of Sumbawa, killing 100,000 people and hurling huge plumes of ash up to 62 miles into the atmosphere.

    The electrically-charged ash "short circuited" the ionosphere, the upper atmospheric layer responsible for cloud formation, researchers from Imperial College London said.

    It led to a "pulse" of cloud formation which brought heavy rain across Europe and played a part in the French emperor's defeat.

    Lead scientist Dr Matthew Genge said:
    "Previously, geologists thought that volcanic ash gets trapped in the lower atmosphere, because volcanic plumes rise buoyantly. My research, however, shows that ash can be shot into the upper atmosphere by electrical forces."
    A series of experiments and computer simulations showed charged volcanic particles smaller than 0.2 millions of a metre in diameter could be propelled into the ionosphere during large eruptions.

    There, they disturbed electrical currents in the ionosphere, leading to unusual levels of cloud formation and rain, according to the study published in the journal Geology.

    Similar disturbance to the ionosphere was reported after the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines.

    Dr Genge added:
    "Victor Hugo in the novel Les Miserables said of the Battle of Waterloo:
    'an unseasonably clouded sky sufficed to bring about the collapse of a world'.
    Now we are a step closer to understanding Tambora's part in the battle from half a world away."

    Related:
    Future volcanic eruptions could cause more climate cooling

    =============================================

    The above gives a whole new order of magnitude as to the effect of volcanic and cometary dusts over the weather and climate... scary.
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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Amazing conclusions!! Who would have thunk it!! Shades of The Spanish Armada!! Oh well, we can always blame "God" for what happens!

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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Quote Posted by Foxie Loxie (here)
    Amazing conclusions!! Who would have thunk it!! Shades of The Spanish Armada!! Oh well, we can always blame "God" for what happens!
    Funny you mention the Spanish Armada, I was thinking the same thing, and how Queen Elizabeth’s Conjurer, John Dee, was the astrologer/alchemist whom the queen relied on for making political moves on auspicious dates. What if Dee had an understanding of astronomy profound enough, that in the vein of Piers Corbyn (and his Weather Action methodology), could identify the most likely times major storms would be triggered by planetary movements. If you could entice your enemy to attack during those moments, would it not appear as sorcery as the enemies armada gets swept away by the raging waves.
    Quote Even Shakespeare, who knew Dee, based Prospero, the magician protagonist in The Tempest on John Dee, in this, the Bard’s final written work.

    Dee is important for many reasons. One is that he found find a way to unite magic and science. As a good magician he inhabited a world between these two frontiers, and in the manner of the great Merlin, he was essential to the creation of the very archetype of the sorcerer, a figure who caught the attention of royalty like few others of his time. Perhaps John Dee’s mind was too advanced for that time. He might also be considered one of the first scientists, at a time when the line between science and metaphysics was only first being traced.
    And if they had that technology in the late 1500’s, could the same technology be used to manoeuvre Napoleon to his armies demise several centuries later? The more I read about the Phoenicians, the more I believe they understood this deep understanding of astronomy and it’s relation to earth weather systems, as a way to plan safe sailing routes without encountering ferocious storms.

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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Very interesting, Jayke! Have often wondered about John Dee, myself! I'm beginning to think those who do understand the motions of the solar system are more clued in to what is happening. We have been dumbed down for so many centuries, it is ridiculous!!

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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Quote Posted by Hervé (here)
    [...]
    The electrically-charged ash "short circuited" the ionosphere, the upper atmospheric layer responsible for cloud formation, researchers from Imperial College London said.

    It led to a "pulse" of cloud formation which brought heavy rain across Europe and played a part in the French emperor's defeat.

    Lead scientist Dr Matthew Genge said:
    "Previously, geologists thought that volcanic ash gets trapped in the lower atmosphere, because volcanic plumes rise buoyantly. My research, however, shows that ash can be shot into the upper atmosphere by electrical forces."
    A series of experiments and computer simulations showed charged volcanic particles smaller than 0.2 millions of a metre in diameter could be propelled into the ionosphere during large eruptions.
    [...]

    Sarychev volcano © ISS


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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Rethinking the mystery of stratospheric cooling

    Anthony Watts
    Watts Up With That
    Sat, 29 Sep 2018 00:00 UTC

    This paper claims that stratospheric cooling is the work of "greenhouse gases". Saying: "An extended satellite temperature record and the chemistry‐climate models show weaker global stratospheric cooling over 1998-2016 compared to 1979-1997."



    Figure 1 from the paper. Time series of global monthly mean temperature anomalies (K) for the period 1979–2016 for the data sets andaltitude ranges stated in thefigure. Anomalies are shown relative to a baseline of 1979–1981. The number of individualensemble members plotted for each model is shown in the legend. The multimodel mean is shown in thick purple.Note that only the CESM1(WACCM), GEOSCCM, ULAQ-CCM, and UMUKCA-UCAM models include the radiative effectsof volcanic aerosols over the hindcast period in the refC2 experiment. Note the UK Met Office SSU data set is shown as6-month averages. (a) SSU channel 3 (~40–50 km). (b) SSU channel 2 (~35–45 km). (c) SSU channel 1 (~25–35 km). (d) MSUchannel 4 (~13–22 km). SSU = Stratospheric Sounding Unit.

    Of course, the authors, being biased towards the universal boogeyman of CO2, had only one thing on their minds. But a recent essay by Dr. Tony Phillips suggests the lower solar activity has cooled the thermosphere, which could in turn aid the cooling of the stratosphere:


    Layers of the atmosphere © NASA



    From the plain language description of the publication:
    A previous analysis by Thompson et al. (2012, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11579) showed substantial differences between satellite‐observed and model‐simulated stratospheric cooling trends since the late 1970s.

    Here we compare recently revised and extended satellite temperature records with new simulations from 14 chemistry‐climate models. The results show much better agreement in the magnitude of stratospheric cooling over 1979-2005 between models and observations.

    This cooling was predominantly driven by increasing greenhouse gases and declining stratospheric ozone levels. An extended satellite temperature record and the chemistry‐climate models show weaker global stratospheric cooling over 1998-2016 compared to 1979-1997. This is due to the reduction in ozone‐induced cooling from the slowdown of ozone trends and the onset of ozone recovery since the late 1990s.

    There are larger differences in the latitudinal structure of past stratospheric temperature trends due to the effects of unforced atmospheric variability.

    In summary, the results show much better consistency between simulated and satellite‐observed stratospheric temperature trends than was reported by Thompson et al. (2012, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11579) for the previous versions of the satellite record and last generation of chemistry‐climate models. The improved agreement mainly comes from updates to the satellite records, while the range of simulated trends is comparable to the previous generation of models.
    The paper: Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends

    Open access PDF here.

    Abstract
    Simulated stratospheric temperatures over the period 1979-2016 in models from the Chemistry‐Climate Model Initiative are compared with recently updated and extended satellite data sets. The multimodel mean global temperature trends over 1979-2005 are −0.88 ± 0.23, −0.70 ± 0.16, and −0.50 ± 0.12 K/decade for the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) channels 3 (~40-50 km), 2 (~35-45 km), and 1 (~25-35 km), respectively (with 95% confidence intervals). These are within the uncertainty bounds of the observed temperature trends from two reprocessed SSU data sets. In the lower stratosphere, the multimodel mean trend in global temperature for the Microwave Sounding Unit channel 4 (~13-22 km) is −0.25 ± 0.12 K/decade over 1979-2005, consistent with observed estimates from three versions of this satellite record. The models and an extended satellite data set comprised of SSU with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit‐A show weaker global stratospheric cooling over 1998-2016 compared to the period of intensive ozone depletion (1979-1997). This is due to the reduction in ozone‐induced cooling from the slowdown of ozone trends and the onset of ozone recovery since the late 1990s. In summary, the results show much better consistency between simulated and satellite‐observed stratospheric temperature trends than was reported by Thompson et al. (2012, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11579) for the previous versions of the SSU record and chemistry‐climate models. The improved agreement mainly comes from updates to the satellite records; the range of stratospheric temperature trends over 1979-2005 simulated in Chemistry‐Climate Model Initiative models is comparable to the previous generation of chemistry‐climate models.

    Related:
    Temperatures have dropped to -91°C (-131,8°F) in the stratosphere!

    ===============================================

    With a cooling of the stratosphere, dust particles wandering around in the upper atmosphere are more likely to form noctilucent clouds along with persistent contrails.

    Also, a stronger temperature gradient between surface and stratosphere would account for more weather weirdness...
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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Interesting video by Anonymous, who seem to be getting better at what they do



    Weathertec is mentioned in the video - openly provides weather and rainfall management technology – ‘Weathertec’ does not come up on google search – obviously filtered out for me at least

    https://weathertec-services.com/technology.html


    Geo-Engineering / Chemtrailing ionises the atmosphere which enhances military technologies powered by electromagnetic arrays from facilities like HAAP, some of which are satellite based
    Last edited by yelik; 8th October 2018 at 12:49.

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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Quote Posted by yelik (here)
    Interesting video by Anonymous...
    [...]
    Hello yelik,

    I moved this post of yours from the "EMFs - Electro Magnetic Fields - pollution: Their lethally detrimental effects and effective counteractive solutions." thread, where it was completely off topic, to this thread where the Weathertech ionization technology correlates with, and corroborates, Gerald Pollack's research.
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    Default Re: Dust Particles Influence On The Weather AND Earth's Climate

    Earth just narrowly dodged bulk of Draconids meteor storm

    Space Weather
    Sun, 14 Oct 2018 15:33 UTC



    Here it is, showing Earth shooting the gap between two filaments of comet dust

    On Oct. 8-9, Europeans outdoors around midnight were amazed when a flurry of faint meteors filled the sky. "It was a strong outburst of the annual Draconid meteor shower," reports Jure Atanackov, a member of the International Meteor Organization who witnessed the display from Slovenia. Between 22:00 UT (Oct. 8) and 01:00 UT (Oct. 9), dark-sky meteor rates exceeded 100 per hour. In eastern France, Tioga Gulon saw "1 to 2 meteors per minute," many of them shown here in an image stacked with frames from his video camera:

    "It was a rare and impressive event," says Atanackov.

    It could easily have been 10 times more impressive. In fact, Earth narrowly dodged a meteor storm.

    The European outburst occurred as Earth skirted a filament of debris from Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner. If that filament had shifted in our direction by a mere 0.005 AU (~500,000 miles), Earth would have experienced a worldwide storm of 1000+ meteors per hour. These conclusions are based on a computer model of the comet's debris field from the University of Western Ontario's Meteor Physics Group.




    Western Ontario postdoctoral researcher Auriane Egal created the model and predicted the outburst before it happened. Egal's model was in good agreement with a rival model from NASA, so confidence was high. Meteors seen over Europe came from the larger filament on the right.

    According to the models, Earth's L1 and L2 Lagrange points were both forecast to have storm-level activity--especially L2 which would experience the Earth-equivalent of 4000+ meteors per hour. This prompted NASA to take a close look at the danger to spacecraft.
    "The US has four space weather spacecraft at L1: ACE, SOHO, Wind, and DSCOVR," says Bill Cooke of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office.

    "There is only one operational spacecraft at L2 - the European Space Agency's GAIA - which was where most of the Draconid activity was expected to take place. GAIA shut down science operations for a few hours around the projected storm peak and re-oriented to turn the hard side of the vehicle towards the incoming debris. All of the spacecraft came through the Draconids without incident, and this shower provided a good test of our ability to forecast meteor activity outside of Earth orbit."
    Many readers have wondered if the outburst has anything to do with Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner's close approach to Earth last month.
    "No," says Cooke.

    "The models show the outburst experienced at Earth was mainly caused by material ejected from the comet from 1945 to the mid 1960's. The meteoroids were more than half a century old."

    Related:
    "La réalité est un rêve que l'on fait atterrir" San Antonio AKA F. Dard

    Troll-hood motto: Never, ever, however, whatsoever, to anyone, a point concede.

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