Trump said soybean prices have gone up. They're near decade-lows.

[chancy]

Hello Everyone:
An interesting article regarding Farmers and Tariffs. Since I was raised on a farm and know how hard it is to make it due to weather, prices, insects, natural disasters etc. this was a article that jumped out at me because farmers are going to have it even harder now that the tariffs are cast in stone.
chancy


Link:
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tr...171400339.html

Article:
Trump said soybean prices have gone up. They're near decade-lows.
Business InsiderOctober 7, 2018 - Gina Heeb

President Donald Trump said soybean prices have gone up.
They have fallen to near decade lows since his trade war with China began.
China has turned to South American countries to replace US soybeans.
Soybean stocks are approaching record levels.
Watch soybeans trade in real time here.

President Donald Trump claims US soybeans have largely held up against his trade war with China. But tariffs have pushed prices to lows not seen since 2008.

"And soybeans are going up, and things are going up," he said at a press conference in New York on Wednesday. "And we've had very little hurt, from what I’ve done. In fact, the markets have gone up, and the farmers are going to do great."

In reality, soybean prices have fallen more than 12% since China placed a 25% import tax on the legume to retaliate against the Trump administration. That country is the largest soybean customer in the world, accounting for more than half of global imports in 2017.

"There's a lot of concern about the future," Gary Schnitkey, a farm management specialist and University of Illinois professor, said. "Because [soybean farmers] are going to see much lower prices as a result of tariffs."

Also on Wednesday, Trump said China has started buying US soybeans again. But officials in Beijing have been strategizing to minimize reliance on US soybeans since the start of the trade war. China has swapped much of its demand to South America and away from the US, which is now seeing record levels of soybean inventories.

"At this juncture of deepening trade tensions, it is unlikely that private traders in China would seek to buy US origin soybeans," JPMorgan analysts said in a recent research note.
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Deutsche Bank

In July, the Trump administration unveiled $12 billion in emergency aid to farmers who risked suffering financial losses from its trade policies. Soybean farmers are poised to get a large portion of benefits from the controversial plan.

"The soybean is not just some small thing in the background," Torsten Sløk, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, said.

"It's actually something that is pretty important overall for what the agriculture sector is doing and in terms of where revenue is coming from. That's why we're watching very carefully whether soybean prices go up or down."

With no clear end ito the trade war in sight, analysts say there's little chance of soybean prices recovering anytime soon. Beijing cancelled high-level trade talks planned for this week after another round of Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports took effect. And the longer tariffs are in place, the more difficult regaining market share could be.

"Even under a best-case scenario, ie, cease of the trade war, it will be difficult to fully recover the prior extent of China’s soybean import demand in our view," JPMorgan wrote

[Ratszinger]

Based on DJT's past statements and even misspells of words it was purposeful or had hidden meaning or as in this case, maybe he knows something we don't about what is coming. Then again it could be out of context as the stories sometimes do. I haven't researched this but I do grow soybean on our property in TN. along with tobacco, sorghum, cotton and soon marijuana if we get the paperwork processed. The soybean has doubled in demand so demand is up and that could be what he is talking about. We've seen a drop in demand for cotton and tobacco both though.

[Deux Corbeaux]

Perhaps a bit off topic, but I have a question about soy.
Is it true that in the United States soy crops are around 90 percent genetically modified?
Or is that a fairytale?

[Ratszinger]

Posted by Deux Corbeaux (here)
Perhaps a bit off topic, but I have a question about soy.
Is it true that in the United States soy crops are around 90 percent genetically modified?
Or is that a fairytale?

whether you want it to be or not yes. The neighbors use it you end up with it too. Most of what we sell ends up being used to break up harder to grow in soil and then after the soy grows they replant something else more productive that wouldn't have been able to grow there at all had not the soy been there first to break it up good. Hemp can serve the same purpose drifting off topic just a bit.

[Chanie]

I think soybean prices went up slghtly this week so technically, Trump may have been telling the truth.

See: https://www.farmfutures.com/afternoo...cap-oct-5-2018
See: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/we...soybean-prices

The larger context is that prices have tumbled this year due to the China-US trade war.

Prices are affected by all kinds of factors—for instance, supply and demand. They were expecting a bumper crop this year, but the incredibly wet weather may have a negative impact on the harvest.

See:https://www.kfyrtv.com/content/news/...495315591.html

In addition, there are concerns that African swine flu is spreading through the Chinese hog industry which could lower the demand for soybeans.

See: https://farmlead.com/blog/grain-mark...ybeans-prices/

This same article talks about how soybean prices slumped after Trump’s announcement about subsidies to American farmers who have been affected by the trade wars. Apparently, farmers heard that, began selling their beans and prices went down.

This London Free Press article talks about how the drop in soybean prices is affecting Canadian farmers. See:https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/...stly-trade-war

So it’s complicated.

I guess the important thing to remember is that these types of government decisions have an impact on real people and their ability to make a living. Often, their profit margins are narrow because they have a lot of expenses to factor in—mortgages on their farms, equipment, seed prices etc.

I know the dairy farmers here in Canada are very worried that the new USMCA deal is going to wipe out hundreds of Canadian dairy farms. As someone who was a dairy farmer’s daughter, my heart aches for them.
See: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamil...smca-1.4853756

[Hazelfern]

Sorry - irrelevant post deleted.

[enigma3]

We must be careful her to distinguish between GMO soy and non GMO soy. They will have two different prices. China has flirted with halting all GMO soy imports from the US. Lobbying pressure and their huge need has forced them to accept GMO soy. Russia is only growing non GMO food. So eventually it is reasonable to suspect that China will buy Russian soy and lock out the US from their markets. Especially if the tariffs continue. Interesting situation to watch.

[happyuk]

Is it the case that this is not just about the price of soy beans per se?

I've been reading around the importance of soy beans to China's pig farmers, pork being China's main source of protein - this price hike will affect China in a very important way. This is a very real form of economic warfare.

It has been estimated that the average pig farming business in China is facing an increase of up to 36 yuan (US$5.30) for raising one hog, which usually takes five to six months. That translates to a total of 28.8 million yuan (US$4.8 million) for a large firm responsible for feeding about 800,000 pigs.

The impact can be minimised by changing the animals’ diets and looking for alternatives to soybean meal, a but they still will feel some economic pain. China will still remain dependent on U.S. soybeans to feed its massive hog herds, as part of its stupendous problem of feeding her population.