"Minority Report" - now in UK for real? Police think they can do it

[Bob]

Imagine psychics trained to live in the future and report back into the present, when a "crime" (as defined by the State" is about to be committed.. And that cops then have the authority to go fetch the "perpetrator" before they commit the "crime".. We have the theme of "Minority Report".. The movie is set primarily in Washington, D.C., and Northern Virginia in the year 2054.



Briefly since we mentioned "Minority Report", for context let's look at this synopsis -

Based on a short story by the late Philip K. Dick, this science fiction-thriller reflects the writer's familiar preoccupation with themes of concealed identity and mind control. Tom Cruise stars as John Anderton, a Washington, D.C. detective in the year 2054. (not that far away)

Anderton works for "Precrime," a special unit of the police department that arrests murderers before they have committed the actual crime.

Precrime bases its work on the visions of three psychics or "precogs" (specially groomed psychics) whose prophecies of future events are never in error. When Anderton discovers that he has been identified as the future killer of a man he's never met, he is forced to become a fugitive from his own colleagues as he tries to uncover the mystery of the victim-to-be's identity.

When he kidnaps Agatha (Samantha Morton), one of the precogs, he begins to formulate a theory about a possible frame-up from within his own department. Directed by Steven Spielberg, who hired a team of futurists to devise the film's numerous technologically advanced gadgets, Minority Report co-stars Colin Farrell, Max von Sydow, and Neal McDonough. ~ Karl Williams, Rovi

And how far back was Dick pre-cog'ing this scenario? "The Minority Report" came into press in 1956 as a science fiction short story. It was penned by American writer Philip K. Dick, and first published in Fantastic Universe.

In a future society, three mutants (these are the pre-cogs, or psychics continually kept in viewing "future events" and in the story, they foresee all crime before it occurs. They are "plugged" into a great machine, and through the interface, these "precogs" allow the Precrime Division cops to go out and arrest suspects prior to any infliction of public harm.

Well.. move forward to 26 November 2018

The system, called the National Data Analytics Solution (NDAS), uses a combination of AI and statistics to try to assess the risk of someone committing or becoming a victim of gun or knife crime, as well as the likelihood of someone falling victim to modern slavery.

West Midlands Police is leading the project and has until the end of March 2019 to produce a prototype. Eight other police forces, including London’s Metropolitan Police and Greater Manchester Police, are also involved. NDAS is being designed so that every police force in the UK could eventually use it.

Police funding has been cut significantly over recent years, so forces need a system that can look at all individuals already known to officers, with the aim of prioritising those who need interventions most urgently, says Iain Donnelly, the police lead on the project.

Being Data Mined -- (I've said this before and it continues to be overlooked it appears, all sources of data generated by a person, email, phone-calls, social media, blogs, and forums, traffic stops, surveillance for activity that is "out of the norm" are all sources (and many more) going into the "machine" for profiling)..

This is the first such project of its kind in the world, pooling multiple data sets from a number of police forces for crime prediction, says Donnelly. In the early phases, the team gathered more than a terabyte of data from local and national police databases, including records of people being stopped and searched and logs of crimes committed. Around 5 million individuals were identifiable from the data.

Looking at this data, the software found nearly 1400 indicators that could help predict crime, including around 30 that were particularly powerful. These included the number of crimes an individual had committed with the help of others and the number of crimes committed by people in that individual’s social group.

The rise of predictive policing
Around the world, police are increasingly using data to predict crime. PredPol, developed at Santa Clara University in California, tries to identify future crime hotspots, for example. The system has been used both in the US and the UK.The Los Angeles police has a program that assigns a risk score based on traits such as whether they have previous convictions or are known members of a gang. Patrols are adjusted to keep a closer eye on the “riskiest” people.

The Netherlands uses another software tool that analyses crime data as well as social data in specific areas – such as people’s ages, their incomes and whether they claim benefits. This is used to predict where in a city specific types of crimes are more likely to occur.

Some applications have come in for condemnation, however. Earlier this year, Human Rights Watch criticised the Chinese authorities for allegedly using predictive policing to pre-emptively detain people in the province of Xinjiang.

[Bob]

Here is a document that the West Midland Police put together showing how they can do it - they mention over 5.7 million people in UK currently have been "analyzed" and have significant "matches" to their criteria to be flagged.. they blissfully call it "Utilizing Data Science" to create a "risk" model..

What they share is an interesting 'factoid' about age of a criminal..

The younger you are when you commit a co-offending offence the more likely for you to go ahead to commit other crimes. Only 35% of people who first cooffend at age 23 or above go on to commit another crime.

Of those aged 11 or younger, 76% go on to become serious offenders.

[Clear Light]

Ah, thanks Bob for this thread

As a resident of the West Midlands I was previously unaware that the local Police Force is undertaking such a large-scale "criminal profiling" project as regards the future "potential" of any (all ?) identified person(s) !

Just lately, it would seem the West Midlands is suffering from a "growing epidemic" of Car Crime (probably) due to budget cuts and personnel reduction right across all the UK's Police Forces so I can very well see how / why this project could theoretically be used so that their limited resources are "targeted" in the most cost effective way at reducing crime ... IF this is how it eventually "plays out" of course ... we shall see eh ?

But just for information, "The Alan Turing Institute" was invited to review the project, from an Ethical standpoint / perspective and here are a couple of their related links :

Ethics Advisory Report for West Midlands Police (Internet Publication)

Data Ethics Group Advisory Report delivered to West Midlands Police (PDF Document)

As well as the NAS Project Team response to The Alan Turing Institute (PDF Document)

Now although the NewScientist published (26 November 2018) their article UK police wants AI to stop violent crime before it happens, it doesn't seem to have been picked up by any of the UK's mainstream news outlets much less the local outlets ...

[Valerie Villars]

It seems to me that this very same technology may be used to identify "dissidents" and thereby target them for harassment before they can effectively rebel against the "program" of society. Thus, targeted individuals; those who they have identified as dangers to the system. Not criminals, just outliers.

Or ones who have potential for real spiritual power. You know, the kind from the heart.

[Bob]

Hi @Clear Light -

"PreCrime (using the Minority Report title) Midland " bases its data on its datamining successfully and that its database is not corrupted or contains invalid data..

Of course that database is subject to hacking, and no doubt would be a prime target for anyone that would benefit from having access to such records (or for framing someone)..

[Clear Light]

Posted by Bob (here)
Hi @Clear Light -

"PreCrime (using the Minority Report title) Midland " bases its data on its datamining successfully and that its database is not corrupted or contains invalid data..

Of course that database is subject to hacking, and no doubt would be a prime target for anyone that would benefit from having access to such records (or for framing someone)..

Oh, well sure ... and let's not forget with the advent of true "Quantum Computing" the potential for far superior computers (and AI's) must surely bring a shudder to "Network Admins" who will likely have no defence against the raw power of the next generation of PCs ... but before I get carried away (in my image-ination) with the "possibility of the unknown", LOL ...