Theresa May's Brexit deal faces vote in Parliament.

[norman]

Martial Law, bring it on.

The guy who told me 3 or so years ago that the army was training it's youngsters on mockup British council estates has again assured me that the army is fully on "our" side.

I even think the royals are too, right now, we can deal with them later.

[sunwings]

This article caught my attention about how the child abuse enquiry was slowed down to ensure Mrs May became PM. (please read it)

She told John Nicolson that she soon began to harbour concerns about how the inquiry was being run, and these concerns prompted her to suggest to her fellow panellists that they write to Theresa May.

She continued: "I was taken to one side and it was made clear to me, I was told that Theresa May was going to be the Prime Minister, this inquiry was going to be part of this, and that if I didn't toe the line and do I was told, if I tried to get information out, I would be discredited by her advisors."

She went on to allege that this warning was issued by the inquiry's QC, Ben Emmerson, who served as a go-between between May and the inquiry team.

https://talkradio.co.uk/news/child-a...mpression=true

[greybeard]

Theresa May to ask EU to reopen Brexit deal as she faces crucial amendments votes in Commons
Ross McGuinness
Yahoo News UK29 January 2019


Theresa May has told her Cabinet she is ready to reopen talks with the EU about her Brexit deal.

The Prime Minister told MPs ahead of Tuesday night’s crucial votes on amendments to her Withdrawal Agreement that she is ready to reopen talks with Brussels to seek changes to the Irish backstop in the hope of winning the support of Parliament for her deal.

She insisted she would go back to the EU to get a “significant and legally binding change” to the controversial proposal. The backstop is in place to stop the return of border checks.

She is expected to have phone calls with EU leaders throughout the day.

Hard-line Brexiteers, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, are set to meet in advance of the vote tonight to decide whether they will fall in line and back the so-called ‘Brady amendment’. This would be crucial to securing a majority support from MPs.

However, Brussels has repeatedly ruled out making changes to the deal. Belgian MEP Guy Verhofstadt has explicitly said the European Parliament will not consent to any “watered down” withdrawal agreement.
View photos
MPs will vote on an amendment put forward by Labour’s Yvette Cooper (Picture: PA)

The Brexit deal in its current state was voted down by MPs by a huge margin earlier this month.

Mrs May told the Commons on Tuesday: “This House has left no one in any doubt about what it does not want. Today we need to send an emphatic message about what we do want.”

Commons speaker John Bercow has selected seven amendments for consideration as MPs aim to shape the next phase of the Brexit talks with the EU.

These include an amendment by senior Tory Sir Graham Brady’s proposal to replace the controversial Northern Ireland backstop with “alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border”.

[ripple]

Queen Tess smashes back with stunning victory . Now it's time to boot Brussels hard and repeatedly . But she's a Globalist deep down , so she will not .


MPs have backed seeking "alternative arrangements" to replace the Irish backstop in Theresa May's Brexit plan.

The proposal - put forward by Tory MP Sir Graham Brady - had the support of the government and won by 16 votes.

Theresa May had urged MPs to vote in favour of it to give her a mandate to return to Brussels and re-open negotiations in order to secure a "legally binding change".

But the EU has said it will not change the legal text agreed with the UK PM.

The backstop is is the insurance policy in Mrs May's plan to prevent checks on goods and people returning to the Northern Ireland border, which some MPs fear could leave the UK tied to the EU's rules indefinitely.
It was a key part in seeing her original Brexit deal voted down in Parliament by an historic margin earlier in January.

[greybeard]

Brexit latest: Theresa May wins MPs' backing to renegotiate Brexit deal
[Yahoo News UK]
Yahoo News Staff
Yahoo News UK29 January 2019



MPs have voted to support Theresa May’s plan to renegotiate the Brexit deal with the EU in which she will try to replace the controversial Irish backstop with an alternative.

On a remarkable night in the House of Commons that potentially changed the course of Brexit, MPs also rejected a vote that would have forced Mrs May to delay Brexit to avoid crashing out with no deal.

However, MPs also supported another vote in which they rejected the no-deal option. The main difference between the two votes is that the latter would not be legally binding.

Mrs May will now go back to Brussels with a mandate to remove the backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement and come up with ‘alternative arrangements’.

The backstop is in place to stop the return of border checks.

Speaking after the vote results during the pivotal evening, Mrs May told MPs: “It’s now clear that there is a route that can secure a substantial and sustainable majority in this house for leaving the EU with a deal”, but she admitted renegotiation “will not be easy”.



However, the EU has shown no signs of wanting to reopen the current deal.

Moments before MPs started voting on a series of amendments on Tuesday evening, French President Emmanuel Macron described the Withdrawal Agreement as “not renegotiable”.

Speaking in Cyprus moments, he said: “As the European Council in December clearly indicated, the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated between the UK and EU is the best agreement possible. It is not renegotiable.”

Belgian MEP Guy Verhofstadt also said on Tuesday that the European Parliament will not consent to any “watered down” withdrawal agreement.

[Icare]

Thanks for all your info, Greybeard, now I no longer have to listen to the news about how things are going.

To me, it has been quite interesting how different the reports about the whole subject have been in the British media compared to the German mainstream media.

Ever since the vote the German main stream media have portrayed things as if there might easily be a second referendum , emphasizing how many Brits were feeling deceived and were pushing for it, and I used to think that wasn't possible because a referendum can't just be declared null and void because that's not how democracy works.

We Germans (although I do have dual citizenship) just have to accept the fact that the British want to leave us alone in this mess that is the EU right now (what with Germany being the highest paying contributor and Britain the second highest). I can't see the EU staying afloat financially after Britain has left, there is just no way Germany can do it alone if, for example, Italy needs help as we can just barely keep ourselves afloat as it is right now.

When Teresa May tried to get that deal to pass through the House of Commons, the German main stream media said chances were it probably wouldn't get passed. And how could it. No surprise there.

Now it looks like it's going to be a hard Brexit (no deal) and our local paper reported a rising number of Brits working in Germany were applying for German citizenship and the news on TV said Britain might not want a hard Brexit after all and there might be a second referendum.

I can't help thinking the whole thing is orchestrated somehow in order to keep us from solving the real problems the world faces.

[greybeard]

Icare
thanks for your input its really appreciated.
Now Parliament has voted for an impossible undertaking.
Teresa May will once again get a No
What then?

Chris

[greybeard]

'She's behind you': furious row breaks out in Commons as Jeremy Corbyn fails to let Labour MP Angela Smith speak on second referendum
Evening Standard Ella Wills,Evening Standard



A furious row erupted in the House of Commons today after Jeremy Corbyn refused to give way to an intervention by veteran Labour MP Angela Smith.

The Labour leader's speech during Tuesday's Brexit debate was hampered by a dispute over his failure to take a series of interventions from MPs including from his colleague Ms Smith, who is campaigning for a second referendum.

Mr Corbyn's refusal to take the intervention from the Labour backbencher led to jeers of "she's behind you" by Tory MPs.

Eventually Mr Corbyn relented and allowed the Environment Secretary Michael Gove to interrupt him, who queried why Mr Corbyn was "scared" to allow Ms Smith to intervene when she has been a "member of the Labour party for 37 years".
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's Commons speech was dogged by points of order (PA)

Mr Corbyn ignored the question, instead mockingly thanking the Cabinet minister for his "brief statement of his leadership intentions".

The debate ahead of a crucial series of votes on the withdrawal agreement tonight was then branded a "farce" as Chief Whip Julian Smith was pictured holding up a piece of paper towards Mr Corbyn.
Chief Whip Julian Smith was pictured holding a piece of paper up to Mr Corbyn (Stella Creasy)

The sign is believed to have read: "Angela wants to ask about a second referendum."

The row erupted as Mr Corbyn confirmed Labour support for a plan tabled by senior backbencher Yvette Cooper which would result in the extension of Article 50 to keep the UK in the EU beyond the expected March 29 Brexit date.
Environment Secretary Michael Gove questioned why Ms Smith's request had been denied (Parliament TV)

But his comments soon became bogged down by several points of order and frustration from MPs as Ms Smith was denied an intervention by Mr Corbyn.

In a point of order, Ms Smith said: "I wonder with all the noise in the chamber, whether or not being directly behind the Leader of the Opposition, my request for intervention may not have been heard."
Angela Smith was refused an intervention by Mr Corbyn (Parliament TV)

And as Mr Corbyn repeatedly refused to give way, Tory MPs began to heckle: "She's behind you."

Commons Speaker John Bercow was forced to intervene several times, accusing the Conservative benches of an "orchestrated attempt" to try and "shout down the Leader of the Opposition".

It prompted veteran MP Frank Field to suggest that the debate was "damaging to our standing with the nation", and that it should be shut down and MPs moved straight on to the voting, an idea Mr Bercow rejected.

Mr Field observed that people watching the debate may not realise that the noise levels are related to the refusal of the person speaking to taking interventions.

Labour MP Stella Creasy was among those to slam the Commons proceedings on Tuesday as a "farce".

In a series of tweets she wrote: "This is a farce. Been going now for two hours and there’s nothing here to find any way forward - we are now onto the point of order chorus section of parliamentary Groundhog Day. We have to find a better way to do this not just on Brexit but generally!"

She added, alongside a picture of Mr Smith: "And now the actual chief whip is holding up a sign - none of us can read it - but what’s next? Bunny ears?! That’s why suggesting this needs a citizen’s assembly …not a school one…"

Ms Smith launched a petition at the end of last year urging Mr Corbyn to back a so-called People's Vote on Brexit.

[greybeard]

May plea for Brexit renegotiation hits wall of resistance from EU
PA Ready News UK By Andrew Woodcock and David Hughes, Press Association Political Staff,PA Ready News UK


European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned MEPs that the Commons votes have increased the likelihood of a no-deal outcome.

Theresa May’s plan to renegotiate Britain’s Brexit Withdrawal Agreement has met a wall of resistance from the EU, with the continent’s most senior politicians and officials lining up to insist the deal cannot be unpicked.

In a dramatic night at Westminster on Tuesday, the Prime Minister succeeded in uniting her party behind a plan to rewrite the deal to address concerns about the Irish backstop.

But senior figures in Brussels, Berlin, Paris and Dublin warned that the demand only made a no-deal Brexit more likely as the clock ticks down to the UK’s scheduled departure from the European Union on March 29.

European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker described the Agreement reached after 18 months of negotiation last November as “the best and only deal possible”.

And he told MEPs in the European Parliament in Brussels: “The debate and votes in the House of Commons yesterday do not change that.

“The Withdrawal Agreement will not be renegotiated.”
Jean-Claude Juncker addressed the European Parliament in Brussels (European Parliament/PA)

Mr Juncker said he would stay in close contact with Mrs May and would “listen to her ideas”.

But he added: “I will also be extremely clear about the position of the EU. Yesterday’s vote has further increased the risk of a disorderly exit of the UK.”

Tuesday’s Commons vote demanded the replacement of the backstop with “alternative arrangements” to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.

But the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier told MEPs that “no-one, on one side or the other, can say very clearly and precisely what form these alternative arrangements will take”.

Insisting that the plan remains “at the heart” of the EU’s efforts to protect the single market”, Mr Barnier said: “The backstop is part and parcel of the Withdrawal Agreement and this agreement will not be renegotiated.”

The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said: “The EU had said it was seeking clarity – there had been suggestions that the backstop was not the main issue of concern, which had originated in Brussels.

“I think yesterday a clear message was given by the House of Commons that the backstop is the concern which MPs have, and that if we can find a way to address those concerns that there is a stable majority for getting support for the deal in Parliament.”

Mrs May met privately with Jeremy Corbyn to discuss the way ahead, after clashing with the Labour leader at Prime Minister’s Questions in the Commons.

Having boycotted earlier cross-party talks, Mr Corbyn said he was ready to discuss a “sensible” approach to Brexit after MPs voted on Tuesday night to rule out no deal.
(
Following the meeting, Mr Corbyn said he is “suspicious” that Mrs May is trying to “run down the clock” on Brexit.

He said the pair held “serious” talks which were “exploratory on the issues” and he “set out the Labour case for a comprehensive customs union with the European Union in order to protect jobs in this country”.

But he warned: “The whole process looks like it’s running down the clock by saying well it’s either the problems and the difficulties of no deal or support a deal that’s already been rejected by the House of Commons.

“I’m suspicious that there is a programme of running down the clock here.”

Mrs May was later due to speak by phone with European Council president Donald Tusk and Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar.

In the Commons, Mr Corbyn demanded to know which of her red lines Mrs May was prepared to compromise on in order to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

“It really is time that the Prime Minister acknowledged she has got to move on from the red lines she put down in the first place,” he said.

But the PM told Mr Corbyn he had opposed “every move by this Government to get a deal” and “he is the one risking no deal”.

In dramatic scenes on Tuesday night, MPs voted by a margin of 317 to 301 to back a plan – the “Brady amendment” – which requires the PM to replace the Agreement’s controversial backstop with “alternative arrangements” to keep the Irish border open after Brexit.

But asked five times on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme what this “alternative” involved, Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay was unable to provide any specific explanation.

Mr Barclay said the UK was “exploring in terms of the use of technology… looking at things like the time limit” to deal with the backstop.

He added: “There are a number of options, there are issues in terms of having time limits, issues in terms of exit clauses, issues in terms of technology, and this will be the nature of the negotiation with the European Union in the coming days.”

Downing Street has suggested that the UK’s position could involve a time-limit or exit clause to the backstop or swapping it for a free trade agreement, as proposed in the so-called Malthouse Compromise drawn up by MPs from the Tories’ Remain and Leave wings.

But the suggestion that the deal struck between the Government and Brussels could be unpicked was rejected by senior figures across the EU. Mr Varadkar told the Irish parliament that the EU is not offering a renegotiation of the existing Brexit deal.

“A renegotiation is not on the table,” said the Taoiseach. “There’s no plans to organise an emergency summit to discuss any changes to the guidelines. Nor is there any pressure to hold one.”

French President Emmanuel Macron said the Withdrawal Agreement was “not renegotiable”, while a spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that reopening the deal was “not on the agenda”.

Germany’s foreign minister, Heiko Maas, said: “Germany and the entire Union are firmly on Ireland’s side. We will not allow Ireland to be isolated on this issue.”

French Europe minister Nathalie Loiseau said: “The Withdrawal Agreement that is on the table is the best possible agreement. Let us not reopen it.”

Brexiteer ringleader Jacob Rees-Mogg made clear on Wednesday that he remains prepared to see the UK leave without a deal on March 29 if the EU refuses to reopen negotiations.

“If (the EU) think the Withdrawal Agreement is non-negotiable then we will have to leave without an agreement,” he told TalkRadio. “Do they want the £39 billion, do they want an agreement… or us just to leave? It’s up to them.”

Conservative former Cabinet minister Sir Oliver Letwin said he did not think it was “at all likely” that Mrs May would succeed in getting changes to her Withdrawal Agreement.

He told BBC Radio 5 Live: “If you were a betting person, would you bet two weeks from now that she is going to come back with something that will obtain a majority? I’d have to say, I wouldn’t bet on it, no.”

[greybeard]

Irish foreign minister: 'There are no alternative arrangements that avoid a hard border'
Edmund Heaphy,Yahoo Finance UK


Nobody has presented any “alternative arrangements” that could avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland, Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney said on Wednesday, as he warned that efforts to secure a Brexit deal were “running out of road.”

“The concept of alternative arrangements is not a new one,” he said. “However, there are currently no alternative arrangements which anybody has put forward, which achieve what both sides are determined to achieve – to avoid a hard border.”

Coveney said Tuesday’s vote in the House of Commons, which saw MPs narrowly vote to back an amendment that calls for the Northern Ireland backstop to be replaced by unspecified alternative arrangements, signalled “a turning point” in Theresa May’s attitude to the backstop.

That is why the Irish government is so disappointed with the vote, Coveney said.

He said that, while the EU was committed to exploring alternative arrangements for the backstop in the future, the prospect of such arrangements had already been “explored endlessly” during negotiations with the UK.

“We have less than two months to go now until Brexit happens on 29 March. We are, quite simply, running out of road.”

Any alternative to the backstop, he said, needs “to be based on legal certainty and not just wishful thinking.”

“We in Ireland are essentially being asked — as is the EU — to replace legal certainty, with a hope of something that is yet to be proven.

“In fact, it’s worse than that, because the hopes have already been tested in negotiations and they’ve come up short.”

In some of his most strongly worded remarks to date, Coveney said that anyone who allows a hard border to arise “will be judged harshly in history, and rightly so.”

“This government in Dublin is not going to allow it,” he said, noting that any Brexit-related economic concerns were trumped by concerns about maintaining peace on the island of Ireland.

“There are some things that are more important than economic relationships,” he said.

Coveney said, however, that he welcomed the fact that MPs had voted in favour of an amendment that commits the government to avoiding a no-deal Brexit.

He called it “highly unfortunate” that only one party from Northern Ireland — the Democratic Unionist Party — takes its seats at Westminster. They represent “a minority view on Brexit and the backstop,” he said.

Noting that the majority of businesses and political groups in Northern Ireland think the backstop is “infinitely preferable to a no-deal Brexit,” he said it was critical that their voices were listened to.

Coveney was speaking at a keynote speech to the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin on Ireland’s future in a post-Brexit European Union.

[greybeard]

One way of looking at it is that there are border all over the world.

If we leave European Union there will be borders between UK and France and all European countries.
If Scotland gets home rule and joins the EU then there will be a border between England and Scotland.
So as I said way back in this thread--if the British people are serious about leaving EU then the easiest way would be to say ok there will be a hard border between Northern Ireland and The South.
People cross borders every day to go to work and return in the evening.

Bottom line is if no negotiation possible with EU then we remain as part of the EU no change.
Parliament is clear UK will not leave without a deal.

Just an uninformed opinion --smiling

Chris

[greybeard]

EU Ready to Push U.K. Near Point of No-Return on Brexit, Diplomats Say
Bloomberg Ian Wishart,Bloomberg



EU Ready to Push U.K. Near Point of No-Return on Brexit, Diplomats Say

(Bloomberg) -- The European Union is prepared to take Brexit down to a last-minute, high-stakes summit rather than cave into U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s demands over the next few weeks, diplomats said.

Although May is getting ready to head back to Brussels in an attempt to reopen the Brexit deal that she negotiated over the past 18 months, the EU isn’t planning any concessions before she faces another vote in the British Parliament on Feb. 14, according to the diplomats. Behind closed doors, European officials are sticking to their well-coordinated public line that they won’t rework the deal.

The EU is in no rush to convene an emergency meeting of EU leaders, which would be necessary for any changes to the deal or for a Brexit-day delay. Diplomats point to a scheduled summit on March 21-22 -- just seven days before the U.K. is due to leave the bloc -- as the moment when the two sides could be forced to act. Some senior figures in the EU believe the U.K. needs to be all but out of options before accepting the deal, diplomats said.

Read more: European Firms Dust Off No-Deal Brexit Plans as U.K. Risks Grow

“This is not a game,” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said in a speech in Brussels on Wednesday, as he reiterated the importance of the so-called backstop arrangement to prevent a hard Irish border, which is the most contentious part of the deal. He added that Tuesday’s House of Commons voting increased the risk of a disorderly exit and the EU won’t reopen the deal.

Irish Backstop

As the threat of economic turmoil looms over the country, May, who said Tuesday she has a mandate to renegotiate the deal, isn’t expected in Brussels this week. She held telephone calls with EU President Donald Tusk and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar late Wednesday.

“Yesterday, we found out what the U.K. doesn’t want, but we still don’t know what the U.K does want,” Tusk tweeted after the 45-minute call, which an official with knowledge of it described as “open and frank.” Varadkar told May that the need for the backstop had been reinforced.

European governments now think that a Brexit postponement is increasingly likely, officials briefed on a meeting of EU ambassadors in Brussels on Wednesday said. However, they remain divided over how long a postponement should be.

British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Thursday negotiations with the EU could run close to the March 29 deadline and the U.K. might need a short delay to pass necessary legislation.

“It’s difficult to know” how long the process will take, Hunt told BBC Radio, adding that finalizing proposals to put to the EU on the Irish border issue is “not going to happen in the next few days.”

‘Borders and Division’

While the EU won’t budge on the part of the Brexit deal covering the backstop, it is open to reworking some of the language related to future U.K.-EU relations in a bid to convince British members of Parliament that the backstop might never be needed, diplomats said.

As the EU dug in, Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said it’s “crystal clear” that the government won’t allow economic self-interest to trump concerns around the Northern Ireland peace process.

“It is vitally important that politicians in Westminster understand the overwhelming wish across society in Northern Ireland not to return to the borders and division of times past,” Coveney said in a speech, in a signal that the government in Dublin isn’t going to soften its stance.

The European Commission stepped up its no-deal contingency planning. Plans include a request for the U.K. to continue paying into the bloc’s budget in 2019 -- even if the U.K. doesn’t agree to the deal -- so that projects in Britain retain EU funding.

[greybeard]

Brexit is a revolt against a German-run European super-state
CNBC Dr. Michael Ivanovitch,CNBC Mon, 4 Feb 06:28 GMT


Britain's idea of a united Europe has never been more than a free-trading area.

In spite of that, the Germans and the Dutch liked the prospect of sharing the European Union membership with British free-traders, apparently as a counterweight to overbearing French state interventionists.

Having twice vetoed in the 1960s the British entry into what was then called the European Common Market, France eventually relented and agreed to Britain's accession in 1973.

Soon, however, France and other EU members had to deal with British "opt-outs" from legislative and regulatory provisions London was finding contrary to its government traditions and requiring sovereignty transfers to unelected officials running the European Commission in Brussels.

Nearly three years after the successful referendum to leave the EU, Britain is now in the final stages of negotiating its exit.
Germany planted the seeds of destruction

Although the form of the British exit from the EU is often presented as a reductionist binary choice — "a no-deal exit" or "a deal the U.K. and the EU can live with" — London has in effect restated the fundamental question of what is a European project: A Europe of sovereign nation states, or a federal European super-state.

The disastrous fiscal austerity policies imposed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel on sinking euro area economies at the beginning of this decade, and her subsequent disorderly open-door immigration waves in 2015 have been a catalyst and a detonator of strong centrifugal forces throughout the European Union.

In response to cataclysmic shocks of the Great Recession, Merkel set out to teach a lesson to euro area "fiscal miscreants" and those unable to control their banks (Spain). In the process, she rebuffed American President Barack Obama's request to ease up on her devastating fiscal austerity, because Washington was rightly concerned that a deep and intractable European recession would hit hard one-fifth of American exports.

To those calling for some European solidarity, Merkel retorted that it's everybody for themselves, with Germany continuing to live off its trade surpluses with the euro area partners while pursuing a "black zero" budget balance.

Presidential candidate and later President Donald Trump understood all that. He told Merkel that trade free-riding on the U.S. was over, and so was Washington's total underwriting of German security. Apparently shocked by the lack of American solidarity (stupidity), Merkel's response was that "Europeans truly have to take our fate into our own hands." In other words, never mind, Germany will continue to bilk Europe.

That, however, was too late for Merkel and Germany. Her policies have led to the extreme-right xenophobic Alternative for Germany (AfD) shooting up from zero votes in 2013 to the country's third-largest political party now.

And that was also an eye opener for some smarter Europeans. When the Hungarians saw that Merkel was going to direct refugees their way, Budapest said it didn't want Berlin to decide who was going to live in Hungary.

Berlin and a Berlin-run European Commission were outraged at that lack of Hungary's European solidarity. Worse, an arrogant German EU budget commissioner publicly threatened that he would cut off regional development funds to which Hungary was entitled.
France's 'civil war'

Germany got its next comeuppance in Italy. Rome finally summoned the courage to say "basta!" (enough!), after being left alone for years to handle thousands of African and Middle-Eastern migrants and refugees landing on its shores. Berlin's only response to Italian appeals for European solidarity was to criticize Rome for refusing to honor the maritime traffic laws and to secure people in danger.

To get back at Italy for refusing to follow Germany's diktat on immigration policies, Berlin led the assault, with its French sidekicks, on Italy's attempts to rescue its sinking economy with fiscal policies that were well within the euro-area budget rules.

Germany and its EU Commission now got exactly what they wanted: The Italian economy sank into recession late last year, and will probably remain there for most of 2019.

The story is not over, though. Italy is now teaming up with Hungary and Poland to create an anti-German and anti-French block, with unpredictable consequences for the EU's future.

All that is happening at a time when France is split by a violent and deepening social unrest — some conservative French thinkers call a "civil war," in a country prone to "violence" and "revolutions." The government has no answer to three months of demonstrations and rioting of a social movement dubbed "yellow vests." Watching an increasingly violent police warfare, the French governing elites are organizing town hall discussions, apparently believing that they can wear down, and wait out, their opponents.

But, as things now stand, there seems no end to the French political crisis. Last Saturday, for example, about 60,000 people demonstrated and rioted in all major French cities, confronted by 80,000 police in lethal combat gear.

For the time being, the French government is hanging on thanks to massive police operations and the fact that the rioting social groups have neither the leadership nor the programs that would offer viable alternatives for the transition of power in the quasi-imperial presidential system of the Fifth Republic.

By comparison, a weak and disoriented German government looks like a paragon of stability. The governing coalition forces can't wait to see Merkel's back, the right-of-center CDU/CSU sister parties are still settling their differences, and their hapless Socialist (SPD) partners are looking for a major leadership change.

And everybody is waiting to see what political forces will emerge from the European parliamentary elections in late May. The event is billed as a decisive showdown between established and highly contested governing circles, and what are derisively called "populist" demagogues and illiberal democracies.
Investment thoughts

That huge European mess is exactly what Trump and the U.K. need to settle their trade scores with a disintegrating European Union.

Will the euro survive all that?

The probability is very high that it will. The euro is in the hands of the European Central Bank, and no member country now has an overwhelming anti-euro constituency.

Upon reflection, the Europeans will also realize that a demise of the euro would herald Germany's total political, economic and financial domination of a system of fragmented European states. The long pre-euro experience shows that no country could be protected from that by managed or free-floating exchange rates. The German central bank would then be on par with the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the Bundesbank's president would reclaim its old role as a lecturer-in-chief on world economy and finance.

But many in Europe would find such a German domination unacceptable. Europe's old demons would soon take over, and Washington would have to step in to keep the erstwhile European "brothers" off each other's throats.

And here is how Henry Kissinger talks in his memoirs about a most humiliating history lesson he received on that topic from the towering French President Charles de Gaulle. Egged on by President Richard Nixon, during his visit to France in the 1960s, to challenge de Gaulle's ideas about Germany, Kissinger piqued the haughty general with the question how he would prevent Germany from dominating Europe. De Gaulle's answer was simple: "Through war."

Commentary by Michael Ivanovitch, an independent analyst focusing on world economy, geopolitics and investment strategy. He served as a senior economist at the OECD in Paris, international economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and taught economics at Columbia Business School.

[greybeard]

Listening to the media.
It seems to me that trere is a slight change in demeanour towards the PM--ever so subtle but!!!
It would not now surprise me if some how Teresa May got a version of her plan through.
The seeming underdog becomes the hero--I mean the heroine.
The end result was probably planned well in advance.

Chris

[greybeard]

EU urges May to seize Labour opening as way out of Brexit impasse
Reuters By Alastair Macdonald and Gabriela Baczynska,Reuters

By Alastair Macdonald and Gabriela Baczynska

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - It's a proposal that is not even on the table, and reverses Theresa May's determined position - but EU officials are still urging her to grasp an offer from the Labour opposition to break an impasse over the terms of Britain's EU exit.

The Conservative prime minister gave no sign during her visit to Brussels on Thursday of softening her rejection of a permanent EU-UK customs union, as Labour proposes, European Union sources said.

But for many in Brussels, the possibility of Labour support for an orderly Brexit that avoids the likely chaos of "no-deal" is the only way out of the deadlock, and justifies an attempt to influence Britain's highly tribal internal politics.

"We are still very much in the party politics perspective. The only hope is that, at some point, the threat of 'no-deal' disruptions would mobilise minds in the UK," an EU diplomat briefed on May's talks in Brussels said on Friday.

"For now, May is still looking at her own party rather than a nationwide consensus."

The EU says London agreeing to closer ties with the bloc after Brexit would largely obviate the need for a contentious "backstop" provision in the future, an insurance policy meant to keep the border between Ireland and the British-run province of Northern Ireland open under any and all circumstances.

"We are looking at those proposals with interest but there are obviously very considerable points of difference that exist between us," said a senior official in May’s office.

"The PM continues to believe that an independent trade policy is one of the key advantages of Brexit," the person said under condition of anonymity.

Staying in a customs union with the EU would limit the UK's ability to seal trade deals with other countries on its own.

But the bloc believes that solution might be acceptable to the Northern Irish unionists propping up May's government, as well as to at least some Labour lawmakers, and thus secure a parliamentary majority for the divorce deal before Britain leaves on March 29.

Given the EU's opposition to the concessions on the backstop that May is currently demanding, the only alternative appears to Brussels to be a delay to the exit and/or a "no-deal" Brexit, with no transition period to soften the economic rupture.

"THE ONLY WAY OUT"

"By that time, hopefully, May will have worked with Labour and get Labour votes. It's the only way out. There will be no illusions on what will happen in the last week of March if they don't vote for it," another EU diplomat said.

One senior EU diplomat added: "Our leaders cannot understand why she still has not been able to do what they do every day – talk to the opposition, build coalitions."

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said he would reiterate on Monday at a planned meeting with Britain's Brexit minister that the EU would not re-open the legally binding Brexit deal agreed with Britain over two years, but was ready to rework the political declaration that accompanies it.

The bloc rejects London's demands for a time limit to the backstop, saying that would defeat its purpose. But it has given May an olive branch, agreeing that Brexit negotiators from both sides will sit down to talks again.

EU diplomats and officials dealing with Brexit expect it to go right down to the wire. While May has refused to rule out a 'no-deal' Brexit, which she believes gives her bargaining power, Brussels hopes that she would come round to requesting at least a short delay if that scenario seemed unavoidable.

They juxtapose May's brinkmanship with a somewhat unexpected role model - Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

Long at loggerheads with the EU over Greece's economy and migration, the bloc's former enfant terrible has now won widespread praise in the EU for putting to rest a protracted name dispute with neighbouring Macedonia at considerable political cost.

"Look at Tsipras and Macedonia – a leader who stuck his neck out and risked his own government and premiership to do what he knew was right. We need that type of thinking in the UK," said another EU diplomat.

(Additional reporting by Jan Strupczewski in Brussels and Elizabeth Piper in London; Writing by Gabriela Baczynska; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Frances Kerry)

[norman]

This is a public information broadcast from the oldskool.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=EokwQi15pO0

TheFubar1066
Published on 16 Jan 2015

[greybeard]

Brexit vote: Theresa May dealt humiliating Brexit defeat as Britain teeters on the brink


Theresa May has lost the second ‘meaningful vote’ on her Brexit deal after failing to win over MPs with a series of last-minute changes agreed with the EU.

MPs voted against the deal by 391 votes to 242 – a majority of 149 votes – in yet another humiliation for the Prime Minister over Brexit.

On Monday night Mrs May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced a series of ‘legally binding changes’ to the Irish backstop, the mechanism to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland if the UK and EU fail to agree a satisfactory trade deal after Brexit.

But the last-minute changes failed to convince hard Brexiteers or the DUP after Attorney General Sir Geoffrey Cox ruled there was still a risk the UK could be trapped in the backstop indefinitely.

In a result that was unsurprising to many following the Attorney General’s ruling, Mrs May suffered her latest defeat in the Commons as her deal was rejected for the second time.
What happens next?

MPs are now due to vote on Wednesday on whether they are willing for the UK to leave the EU without a deal on March 29.

Mrs May announced that the motion MPs vote on will state: “this House declines to approve leaving the European Union without a Withdrawal Agreement and a framework on the future relationship on March 29 2019 and notes that leaving without a deal remains the default in UK and EU law unless this House and the EU ratify an agreement”.

The Prime Minister also said she will give Conservative MPs a free vote on the motion, saying she had “personally struggled with this choice” but the best way to leave was “in an orderly way” with a deal.

If MPs reject the option of a no-deal Brexit, a third vote will follow on Thursday authorising Mrs May to request an extension of the two-year Article 50 negotiation process.

An extension requires the unanimous agreement of all 27 remaining member states, and Mr Juncker has warned that it cannot stretch beyond May 23 unless the UK takes part in the European Parliament elections starting on that date.
MPs will now vote on Wednesday on whether they are willing for the UK to leave Europe without a deal (Picture: House of Commons Press Office)


What now for Mrs May?

Addressing the Commons with a croaky voice following the vote, Mrs May said she “profoundly regrets the decision this House has taken tonight”.

She told MPs: “I continue to believe that by far the best outcome is the UK leaves the European Union in orderly fashion with a deal.

“And that the deal we have negotiated is the best and indeed only deal available.”

While some had suspected that yet another defeat would leave question marks over her future as PM, there was no suggestion by Mrs May that she will offer her resignation.
Jeremy Corbyn has called for a general election (Picture: House of Commons Press Office)

[Eric J (Viking)]

This is turning out to be an absolute mess...

Summary
MPs have rejected the UK leaving the EU without a deal by 321 to 278 votes
The government's original motion only ruled out leaving without a deal on 29 March
The government motion was changed after MPs voted for an amendment put forward by Yvette Cooper after its sponsor pulled out
MPs voted down another amendment - known as the Malthouse Compromise - calling for a delay to Brexit from 29 March to 22 May to give time to leave without a deal
The PM's withdrawal agreement was defeated in the Commons by 149 votes on Tuesday
Jeremy Corbyn has again called for a general election

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-p...ments-47529293

Viking

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by viking (here)
This is turning out to be an absolute mess...

In an attempt to understand it all myself, I visited this page: (worth reading for anyone with some background on all this)

• https://bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46393399

...and found this diagram useful.



Meanwhile, here's a simple 'Brexit Guide for Dummies', which may be valuable to non-Brits. (Not that non-Brits are dummies! But it starts off with "What is Brexit?", and even "What is the EU?" (wow) which may be encouraging to some who have no clear idea what all this massive amount of chaos is about.)

• https://bbc.com/news/uk-46318565

[greybeard]

Brexit delay: EU council president Donald Tusk open to 'long extension' of Article 50
The Independent Jon Stone,The Independent



Brexit delay: EU council president Donald Tusk open to 'long extension' of Article 50

The president of the European Council has said he is open to a “long” delay to Brexit if the UK needs time to rethink its strategy to leaving the bloc.

Hours ahead of a parliamentary vote on whether the UK should seek an Article 50 extension Donald Tusk said he would encourage EU member states to back a delay if the UK needed time to “build consensus” around a new approach.

The comments come after repeated failed attempts by Theresa May to pass her Brexit deal and a slew of government defeats on how to resolve the political crisis.

“During my consultations ahead of European Council, I will appeal to the EU27 to be open to a long extension if the UK finds it necessary to rethink its Brexit strategy and build consensus around it,” Mr Tusk said on Thursday morning.

The Government on Wednesday proposed a short extension to the Brexit deadline to 30 June, to buy it time to pass the necessary legislation for exit. Such an extension would likely be required even if MPs back Ms May’s Brexit deal in a third meaningful vote next week.

Any extension needs the unanimous consent of EU member states, and some are more positive about a delay than others. French president Emmanuel Macron has said he would veto and extension to Article 50 that was not based on a “a new choice of the British” and which had “a clear objective”.

The EU leaders will consider the situation at a regular meeting of the European Council in Brussels, which is scheduled for Thursday and Friday next week.

One complicating factor for any significant extension is that the UK would, according to EU treaties, have to participate in European Parliament elections scheduled for May if is still in the bloc. Though the Electoral Commission has made contingency plans for this possibility, it would be disruptive to both the UK and EU sides.

Michel Barnier, the European Commission’s chief negotiator yesterday questioned the point of an extension, telling MEPs in the European Parliament: “Why would we extend these discussions? The discussion on Article 50, that is done and dusted. We have the withdrawal agreement, it is there. That is the question asked and we are waiting for the answer to that.”

The idea of a long delay is very unpopular with most Brexiteers, and any such plan could have repercussions in Westminster, which is already braced for a third meaningful vote next week. Though few expect the prime minister to win the division, there is already talk that there might be a fourth vote on the cards if the margin of defeat is significantly reduced in the third.