+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 2 1 2 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 29

Thread: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

  1. Link to Post #1
    United States Avalon Member
    Join Date
    15th January 2018
    Posts
    39
    Thanks
    112
    Thanked 336 times in 37 posts

    Default Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    The following may be out of the scope of the intended purpose of this forum.

    In my defense - without financial security most of us are unable to pursue spiritual matters or the normal content of this forum - so my questions are the following:

    1. Do you believe the prices of silver/gold will rise significantly over the next 6 months? why?

    Personally my research into the economy - along with looking at both technical and fundamental analysis has led me to believe the prices should rise significantly in the next 6-12 months.

    2. Do you believe the prices are being purposefully suppressed? Why

    My research into this issues has led to the conclusion that the prices are being regularly suppressed and the only way the prices will rise is if the cabal desires them to rise

    3.What would either force the controllers to stop manipulating the prices of PM's, or encourage them to allow the prices to rise organically?

    I honestly do not have any answers on this one and would welcome opinions from the forum.

    thank you !!!

    Luke
    Last edited by Luke Holiday; 2nd April 2019 at 03:15.

  2. The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to Luke Holiday For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (1st April 2019), Alan (3rd April 2019), DNA (2nd April 2019), Ioneo (1st April 2019), RunningDeer (1st April 2019), Zanshin (1st April 2019)

  3. Link to Post #2
    Japan Avalon Member Ioneo's Avatar
    Join Date
    29th May 2013
    Location
    Japan
    Posts
    178
    Thanks
    2,324
    Thanked 922 times in 163 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    Hey Luke,

    #1 - Most of the experts are saying that PMs will rise this year. (Altough, they have been saying that
    for the last few years to no avail). I think with the worsening financial problems of most counties
    they should start rising this year or next. In fact, in other counties currencies, except the dollar,
    prices are somewhat higher already.

    #2 - Of course PMs are manipulated. They don't call it the London Gold Fix for nothing. Actually, the
    paper gold and silver contracts (stocks) are how they manipulate the most. Even the
    experts like David Morgan and Mike Maloney have given up trying to predict future prices.

    #3 - When the central banks and the 'elite' aquire enough PMs at cheap rock bottom prices and let the
    financial reset happen, then prices will rise dramatically. Of course, prices are in fiat currency so
    when it happen you probably will want to buy real tangible assets with your PMs than covert to
    fiat.

    That is my take on things. Everyone should own some gold and silver to protect against a future crisis.

  4. The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to Ioneo For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (1st April 2019), Alan (3rd April 2019), DNA (2nd April 2019), Luke Holiday (1st April 2019), RunningDeer (1st April 2019), Stardad (2nd April 2019)

  5. Link to Post #3
    United States Avalon Member RunningDeer's Avatar
    Join Date
    6th February 2012
    Location
    Forest Dweller
    Posts
    13,390
    Thanks
    99,268
    Thanked 113,952 times in 13,133 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    Jim Rickards - Fed Desperate for Inflation Bullish for Gold
    Four time best-selling author Jim Rickards says “The time to buy gold is when sentiment is low and people hate it. . . . So, the bull market is intact.” We are in the fourth year. Bull markets start off slow because of all the bad sentiment, but then they gather momentum. So, it’s still not too late to jump on this train, and my expectation is this will pick up. . . . The signal the gold market is getting right now is the Fed is throwing in the towel. . . . They made some headway, but it came at a high cost because they slowed the economy . . . and they can’t continue. . . . Now, they are going to be desperate for inflation, and that is very bullish for gold.”

    Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with best-selling author James Rickards as he prepares for the release of his next book called “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealthy Preservation in the Coming Chaos.”
    Greg Hunter
    Published on Mar 23, 2019

  6. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to RunningDeer For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (1st April 2019), DNA (2nd April 2019), Ioneo (2nd April 2019), Luke Holiday (2nd April 2019)

  7. Link to Post #4
    United States Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    24th September 2014
    Location
    Appalachia
    Posts
    2,551
    Thanks
    9,947
    Thanked 13,078 times in 2,355 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    Paul, Mr. Gray, and some others here will probably have some additional input to share here. Here's my 2 cents to add in with the rest:

    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
    1. Do you believe the prices of silver/gold will rise significantly over the next 6 months?
    I believe the prices of both will rise significantly within the next 5 years, but I'm skeptical of specific time frames.

    Quote why?
    There is something "off" about the supply and demand of silver in particular compared to what it's being traded for. Demand for precious metals has been high for years as a safeguard against inflation, and yet I've heard of major mines going out of business, and prices have remained relatively stable. When the price of gold or silver begin to rise, paper gold/silver are traded in such a way as to negate the gains, or slow them down. For reasons such as these, I believe analysts when they say that the prices are being artificially suppressed in order to avoid a destabilization of central banks and world currencies.

    Quote 2. Do you believe the prices are being purposefully suppressed? Why
    The reasons why I believe analysts who say the prices are being suppressed is above, dealing with supply/demand discrepancies and how paper gold/silver are being used on the markets. I don't pretend to fully understand why financial entities are suppressing the prices, but several nations have been demanding the repatriation of gold deposits kept in foreign banks, and these demands are being resisted by the banks. Some kind of chess game appears to be going on between international banks and national governments, and I'm not sure that any superficial summary of that situation would be entirely accurate.

    Quote 3.What would either force the controllers to stop manipulating the prices of PM's, or get them to allow the prices to rise organically?
    If the controls currently in place on markets to manipulate the price of gold/silver suddenly disappear, then the prices will adjust rapidly like a rubber band, and that would be destabilizing and undesirable for certain national governments. I can make educated guesses as to which groups of power brokers are ultimately behind the manipulation of PMs, and what general technologies/methods they are using (AI, for one, and automated systems), but they would just be guesses. Obviously the most notorious banking families and institutions are involved in some way. It appears there are multiple factions involved actually, and they have been conflicting with each other for some time -- take the wild fluctuations in the US stock market over the last couple of years as one manifestation of these battles for control.

    If the prices were allowed to suddenly and rapidly shoot up, there will be chaos in the market. Mines might begin opening at a more rapid pace (if people aren't all starving to death), and the prices would eventually stabilize around some more realistic price, but that might take months, depending on how destabilizing the price changes are.

    If the controls are removed in a methodical way (which I believe is the goal of the faction countering the central bankers on the stock market), then maybe it will mitigate the wild swings in prices, but it all depends on what exact mechanisms are in place doing this, and how exactly they are removed, and how much time the free market has to react to price changes/how rapidly the price changes occur.

    In short different factions, based in different countries, with different goals, are manipulating prices for different reasons, and what ultimately happens will depend on which group ultimately gains the upper hand and how they decide to move forward with this situation. But ultimately the current prices are unsustainable and will have to adjust to better reflect market realities.

    A massive wildcard in all of this is whether or not the mining of asteroids becomes technologically feasible and profitable in the next several years. At least one successful landing has already been demonstrated to the public. A situation where prices are artificially kept low long enough for this technology to be implemented and naturally lower prices to around current levels is conceivable, but I don't know how desirable that would be for various groups manipulating prices.

    Other than something crazy like that happening to dramatically increase supply, current prices aren't sustainable.
    Last edited by A Voice from the Mountains; 1st April 2019 at 23:32.

  8. Link to Post #5
    Avalon Member
    Join Date
    26th April 2010
    Age
    43
    Posts
    358
    Thanks
    531
    Thanked 946 times in 272 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    the price of bullion metals are 100 percent controlled by a rigged paper market. imo no one knows much of anything except the banking cartels who manipulate the price.

    the supposed top gold and silver minds on the planet have been wrong for almost a decade now.

    most concede now they don't know bc the market is 100 percent rigged

  9. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to robinr1 For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (2nd April 2019), DNA (2nd April 2019), Kryztian (7th April 2019), Luke Holiday (2nd April 2019)

  10. Link to Post #6
    Canada Avalon Member TomKat's Avatar
    Join Date
    23rd September 2017
    Posts
    869
    Thanks
    137
    Thanked 3,207 times in 751 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    I have no idea, but one might bear this in mind:
    The economy in the US is slowing. That should be negative for inflation as well as precious metals. After the panic of Sept 2008, gold went down significantly as people poured into cash and the dollar. In the next year it started going up, culminating in a peak a couple of years later (followed by a crash from which it's still trying to recover). Most of the people calling for a dramatic crash are gold dealers such as youtuber Lynette Zang. The people that really move markets are the big players and they tend not to buy into alternative sources of information. Gerald Celente says don't expect a bull market in gold until it stabilizes above $1360 (it's under $1300).
    So although gold bugs have valid points about the fraud and fragility of the system, don't expect gold to rise this year if things continue as smoothly they are.

  11. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to TomKat For This Post:

    DNA (2nd April 2019), Luke Holiday (2nd April 2019)

  12. Link to Post #7
    United States Avalon Member
    Join Date
    15th January 2018
    Posts
    39
    Thanks
    112
    Thanked 336 times in 37 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    .... The economy in the US is slowing. That should be negative for inflation as well as precious metals.

    Tomkat thank you for your insight !

    For the sake of discussion and my personal greater understanding of the situation:

    IF the economy is slowing then interest rates will likely remain stagnant or be lowered. If the fed decides to again lower interest rates, which many believe they will do, along with implementing more QE, shouldn't these acts increase the belief in upcoming higher inflation rates - which in theory would raise PM prices?

    What are your thoughts to my response?

    My belief in the above scenario is in fact the reason I began researching PM's with intent to potentially invest. thread

    ¤=[Post Update]=¤

    Voice from the mountain/ Ioneo -Wow - outstanding answer and great information - thank you !!!

    Question - why do you think the PM prices were allowed to run up to the highs reached in 2011?

    I believe the price of gold and silver were allowed to reach planned highs because someone wanted to sell at a planned peak price and that someone also wanted to have the PM price run down to the current lows that we have been plagued with for last 8 years
    Last edited by Luke Holiday; 2nd April 2019 at 03:33.

  13. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Luke Holiday For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (2nd April 2019), DNA (2nd April 2019)

  14. Link to Post #8
    United States Avalon Retired Member
    Join Date
    4th January 2011
    Location
    North Texas
    Age
    72
    Posts
    27,723
    Thanks
    28,846
    Thanked 129,192 times in 20,635 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
    1. Do you believe the prices of silver/gold will rise significantly over the next 6 months? why?
    I've believed that non-stop, for the last ten years or more .

    I'll be right some decade ... if I live long enough.

    The present US Dollar based monetary system is long in the tooth, as usually happens with debt-based money systems within a century or so.

    The coming monetary system, which I expect will be dominated by Russia and China, will start out with a more solid basis in gold and silver, as most monetary systems do.

    For now, while the US Dollar system is still dominant, gold and silver will continue to be valued lowly, as the US (the nation, the states, the corporations and the people) all have far more debt than their honest income, or actual remaining gold reserves, can possibly support. So the US discourages the gold market, and Russia and China cooperate in keeping the price low, while they accumulate rapidly.

    Once the next monetary system becomes dominant, Russia and China, who have far larger gold and silver reserves, will want of their reserves to be valued highly, and they will have sufficient leverage to make that happen. This will make them the wealthiest nations on earth, bar none.

    Russia and China appear to be following the age old advice for making a profit: buy low and sell high.

    The clear and publicly obvious transition of the title of "The World's Most Powerful Nation" from the US to China will be a difficult time for the US and its people.

    My present prediction (reminder: almost every one of my previous predictions on such matters has been wrong) is that China will not collapse the US monetary system until after Trump gains re-election in November of 2020, because Trump is a more reliable adversary than any of the Democrat alternatives visible so far. China knows that if they crashed the US Dollar and economy prior to that election, Trump would most likely lose. If the economy struggles along until then, perhaps with some more smaller crashes, but nothing that shakes the average American to their core, then Trump will most likely win re-election.

    So all that implies that I don't expect dramatic rises in the Dollar value of gold until 2021.
    Last edited by Paul; 2nd April 2019 at 05:47.

  15. The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to Paul For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (2nd April 2019), DNA (2nd April 2019), Ioneo (2nd April 2019), Kryztian (7th April 2019), Luke Holiday (2nd April 2019), robinr1 (2nd April 2019), RunningDeer (2nd April 2019)

  16. Link to Post #9
    United States Avalon Retired Member
    Join Date
    8th May 2011
    Location
    Arizona
    Age
    47
    Posts
    3,931
    Thanks
    27,040
    Thanked 20,835 times in 3,643 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    I believe Platinum is the precious metal to Spike this year. Many manufactures altered their emissions manufacturing to reflect the then price of palladium at $300 an ounce to platinum's $1000 an ounce. Right now palladium is trading at $1500 an ounce, significantly more than when these manufacturing alterations were introduced, and Platinum is trading at $800. Something has to give here and Platinum will have to gain again should manufacturing reflect this.

    Also, California has new laws going into effect demanding all new homes be equipped with solar panels. This will place an incredible demand on the silver industry in my opinion, reducing supply substantially.

  17. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to DNA For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (2nd April 2019), Ioneo (2nd April 2019)

  18. Link to Post #10
    Avalon Member
    Join Date
    5th January 2011
    Posts
    757
    Thanks
    2,006
    Thanked 4,802 times in 687 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    Gold hasn't gotten out of the $1300.00 range in many many years and still won't. Physical gold is the only way to hold gold or silver.Paper is paper. Silver can't get above $18.00.

    Until you see silver or gold above these levels there will be no break out.

  19. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to ramus For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (2nd April 2019), Luke Holiday (4th April 2019)

  20. Link to Post #11
    United States Avalon Member Joe Akulis's Avatar
    Join Date
    2nd July 2012
    Posts
    569
    Thanks
    970
    Thanked 2,424 times in 511 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    The US has been running a "hot" economy since the 40's. (Running a Current Accounts deficit year after year.)
    Normally this would cause heavy duty inflation and the value of the dollar would tank. BUT:

    Thanks to our vaunted reserve currency status, we've been able to offshore most of that inflation. This is why we get ticked off when oil producing nations start thinking about trading with gold or IMF baskets instead of dollars.

    I think the price manipulation helps dissuade everyone from using that as an inflation hedge, and keeps everyone funding our credit card via treasuries, and keeps mainland USA from feeling the brunt of the inflation.

    All of that is changing, but just not as quickly or as drastically as the big gold bugs wish.

    I'd say definitely have some on hand in case bad things happen, and also in case the price suppression ever does snap. But don't rely on that ever happening. Maybe 20% savings into metals, and 80% in all the other cool investment instruments that your financial advisor would steer you into.

    In contrast to most of that, it's fair to mention, when Russia went through all it's economic turmoil in the 90's, the gold holders became tycoons.

  21. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Joe Akulis For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (2nd April 2019), DNA (3rd April 2019), Luke Holiday (2nd April 2019), ramus (4th April 2019)

  22. Link to Post #12
    United States Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    24th September 2014
    Location
    Appalachia
    Posts
    2,551
    Thanks
    9,947
    Thanked 13,078 times in 2,355 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
    For the sake of discussion and my personal greater understanding of the situation:

    IF the economy is slowing then interest rates will likely remain stagnant or be lowered. If the fed decides to again lower interest rates, which many believe they will do, along with implementing more QE, shouldn't these acts increase the belief in upcoming higher inflation rates - which in theory would raise PM prices?
    It's too simplistic to say that the US economy is slowing, or that it's growing, either. The reality is more complicated and depends on which industry you are talking about.

    Some industries are booming right now. Think vital industrial products like steel and coal. Construction is also up, though not necessarily for housing, which is toxic.

    Other industries are crashing right now. Think Big Tech, retailers who import all of their products, and relatively unnecessary tertiary industries that were built upon the comforts and easy money we gained from sweatshops in Asia.

    The entire system is being restructured on a scale and at a pace that is unprecedented, probably in all of human history, considering the numbers of people and amounts of money involved today. The restructuring of trade deals between the US and China alone is monolithic.

    The reality is that the Fed has always had its own agenda just as all central banks have. The question is who is going to gain control of it and what they are going to do with it. They should just disband it completely, but that may not be realistic. We won't know who has control of the system until the political dust settles. But gold and silver certainly appear undervalued.


    Quote Posted by DNA (here)
    Also, California has new laws going into effect demanding all new homes be equipped with solar panels. This will place an incredible demand on the silver industry in my opinion, reducing supply substantially.
    On the other hand, it could crash the housing market or at least stall housing construction in California, which is probably more likely considering the numbers of people leaving California today (a net loss of people annually) and the fact that millennials are not willing or able to purchase the homes of their parents' generation at current market rates.

    Check the news for country club prices in southern Florida. Retirees are literally trying to give them away, and still having trouble finding younger buyers. The housing market is a ticking time bomb of toxic debt.
    Last edited by A Voice from the Mountains; 2nd April 2019 at 21:43.

  23. Link to Post #13
    Avalon Member
    Join Date
    25th September 2014
    Posts
    14
    Thanks
    26
    Thanked 61 times in 11 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    Dear Luke

    The 3 answers from Ioneo are excellent

    In addition to these answers following my comments

    Question 1
    I do not believe that Gold or Silver will rise significantly over the next 6 months. Gold most probably will fluctuate between 1280 and 1360 and Silver between 14.60 and 16.60. However I do expect that both metals will start to move to higher grounds, starting in the 4th quarter of this year. Gold probably will be above 1,390 by the end of the year and Silver above it’s last year high of approximately 17.80. For the first quarter next year I do expect Gold to move up to 1450 and Silver close to 20. Next year Gold should fluctuate between 1380 and 1520. 1520 was a very strong support back in 2013 and now is a very strong resistance.

    Furthermore, according to Elliott Wave theory, I do believe that Gold will move to a price above 2,700 per ounce over the next 3 to 5 years. My interpretation of Elliott Wave is that impulsive wave 1 was from below 300 USD per ounce back in 2000 to USD 1920 in 2011 and that the wave 2 was the correction wave from 1920 to 1040 in November 2015. According to Elliott Wave the impulsive wave 3 should be at least as strong as impulsive wave 1. Therefore Gold should move at least 1,600 USD from the low of USD 1,040 in November 2015.
    Alternative count would be that impulsive wave 1 was from 300 to 1020 (in February 2008), corrective wave 2 from 1,020 to 670 in the year 2008 and that the move from 670 to 1920 was impulsive wave 3 and the correction back to 1040 was wave 4. Even in this alternative count, gold would have to move above it’s all time high and therefore probably above USD 2,000 per ounce. Personally I do believe that the first interpretation is the correct one and therefore that in this actual wave (now ending the bottoming process) the price per ounce will move above USD 2,600 in maybe 3 to 5 years from now.

    Furthermore I do believe that over the next couple of years we will see a Gold/Silver ration below 30 and maybe a Gold/DJI ratio of 5. Just to mention, in 2011 the Gold/Silver ratio was somewhere around 30 and over the past 120 years the Gold/DJI ratio was 3 times at 1 to 1. The last time back in 1980 with Gold and the DJI at 800. Mentioning the Gold/DJI ratio, I would like to mention that I expect a 50% correction in the DJI. The question is only if the 50% correction will be from the move from 1980 to last year (800 to almost 27,000) or from 2008 low (6.500) to last year . That means that the DJI could fall to 15,000 or to 12,000. At 12,000 a Gold/DJI ratio of 4 could very well be possible. Talking about the DJI, I found Paul’s remarks about the timing interesting. As Paul mentioned the correction could start late this year or after the 2020 election. If the “managers” are satisfied with Trump he might get a second run.

    Question 2
    Yes the prices are purposefully suppressed. There are many clear indications that this is the case. Bill Murphy at lemetropolecafe.com and his subscribers have gathered clear evidence of this price manipulation over more than 2 decades. There are clear price patterns that do confirm manipulation. From time to time the CoT (Commitment of Trade) data gives clear indication of manipulation as well (the information is not in the position of the small speculators as most believe).

    Question 3
    Has already been answered in an excellent way by Ioneo

  24. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to chrifri For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (5th April 2019), DNA (3rd April 2019), Luke Holiday (3rd April 2019)

  25. Link to Post #14
    Avalon Member
    Join Date
    26th April 2010
    Age
    43
    Posts
    358
    Thanks
    531
    Thanked 946 times in 272 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    Quote Posted by A Voice from the Mountains (here)
    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
    For the sake of discussion and my personal greater understanding of the situation:

    IF the economy is slowing then interest rates will likely remain stagnant or be lowered. If the fed decides to again lower interest rates, which many believe they will do, along with implementing more QE, shouldn't these acts increase the belief in upcoming higher inflation rates - which in theory would raise PM prices?
    It's too simplistic to say that the US economy is slowing, or that it's growing, either. The reality is more complicated and depends on which industry you are talking about.

    Some industries are booming right now. Think vital industrial products like steel and coal. Construction is also up, though not necessarily for housing, which is toxic.

    Other industries are crashing right now. Think Big Tech, retailers who import all of their products, and relatively unnecessary tertiary industries that were built upon the comforts and easy money we gained from sweatshops in Asia.

    The entire system is being restructured on a scale and at a pace that is unprecedented, probably in all of human history, considering the numbers of people and amounts of money involved today. The restructuring of trade deals between the US and China alone is monolithic.

    The reality is that the Fed has always had its own agenda just as all central banks have. The question is who is going to gain control of it and what they are going to do with it. They should just disband it completely, but that may not be realistic. We won't know who has control of the system until the political dust settles. But gold and silver certainly appear undervalued.


    Quote Posted by DNA (here)
    Also, California has new laws going into effect demanding all new homes be equipped with solar panels. This will place an incredible demand on the silver industry in my opinion, reducing supply substantially.
    On the other hand, it could crash the housing market or at least stall housing construction in California, which is probably more likely considering the numbers of people leaving California today (a net loss of people annually) and the fact that millennials are not willing or able to purchase the homes of their parents' generation at current market rates.

    Check the news for country club prices in southern Florida. Retirees are literally trying to give them away, and still having trouble finding younger buyers. The housing market is a ticking time bomb of toxic debt.


    this was really an outstanding and very accurate post.

  26. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to robinr1 For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (5th April 2019), Luke Holiday (4th April 2019)

  27. Link to Post #15
    Canada Avalon Member TomKat's Avatar
    Join Date
    23rd September 2017
    Posts
    869
    Thanks
    137
    Thanked 3,207 times in 751 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
    .... The economy in the US is slowing. That should be negative for inflation as well as precious metals.
    Tomkat thank you for your insight !
    For the sake of discussion and my personal greater understanding of the situation:
    IF the economy is slowing then interest rates will likely remain stagnant or be lowered. If the fed decides to again lower interest rates, which many believe they will do, along with implementing more QE, shouldn't these acts increase the belief in upcoming higher inflation rates - which in theory would raise PM prices?
    What are your thoughts to my response?
    If the Fed lowers interest rates or does more quantitative easing, it will be in response to deflation in the marketplace, which will take metal prices lower.
    You might be thinking of currency risk (loss of confidence) regarding the USD, rather than inflation. A failed currency would result in hyperinflation as in Venezuela. But hyperinflation in a major currency is rare and only occurs if the govt automatically indexes future prices to projected inflation, throwing gasoline on the fire. The US govt has done the opposite, pretending inflation is low while prices increase all around us year after year. But in 2008 the dollar grew stronger and gold went lower, in spite of what the gold bugs said would happen. If you predict the eventual collapse of the dollar, even that would probably be preceded by deflation and a strengthening dollar for awhile. In case of a financial panic, you're better off with cash, to buy things cheaply, than with gold. In the case of a USD collapse, you're better off with gold.

  28. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to TomKat For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (5th April 2019), Luke Holiday (4th April 2019)

  29. Link to Post #16
    Canada Avalon Member TomKat's Avatar
    Join Date
    23rd September 2017
    Posts
    869
    Thanks
    137
    Thanked 3,207 times in 751 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    Quote Posted by Paul (here)
    Once the next monetary system becomes dominant, Russia and China, who have far larger gold and silver reserves, will want of their reserves to be valued highly, and they will have sufficient leverage to make that happen. This will make them the wealthiest nations on earth, bar none.
    Yes, but in Davidson & Rees-Mogg's The Great Reckoning, they point out that as the industrial baton changes hands from the old superpower to the new, the depression is always worst in the emerging economic superpower, as it was in the US in the 1930s.

  30. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to TomKat For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (5th April 2019), Luke Holiday (4th April 2019)

  31. Link to Post #17
    United States Avalon Retired Member
    Join Date
    4th January 2011
    Location
    North Texas
    Age
    72
    Posts
    27,723
    Thanks
    28,846
    Thanked 129,192 times in 20,635 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    Quote Posted by TomKat (here)
    Quote Posted by Paul (here)
    Once the next monetary system becomes dominant, Russia and China, who have far larger gold and silver reserves, will want of their reserves to be valued highly, and they will have sufficient leverage to make that happen. This will make them the wealthiest nations on earth, bar none.
    Yes, but in Davidson & Rees-Mogg's The Great Reckoning, they point out that as the industrial baton changes hands from the old superpower to the new, the depression is always worst in the emerging economic superpower, as it was in the US in the 1930s.
    Perhaps not so much this time.

    The Deep State required the Great Depression in the US to further bring the unruly Americans under their rule. At the start of the Great Depression, in the late 1920's, the U.S. Federal Government was far away and little noticed. By the end of the Great Depression, and the subsequent World War II, many middle aged people had depended on the Federal Government for a job and income on one of (FDR's) Roosevelt's New Deal projects, or had put their normal lives aside to support the War, with the men shipping off to Europe, and the women working the factories and farms. FDR's fireside chats during the 1930's over the new fangled radio had brought the federal government into every living room, and shortly after the war, in the early 1950's, the new fangled television would bring add a low resolution black and white moving image to that federal presence. I am speaking here not just from book learning, but also from directly knowing a few of the ordinary people involved; I was a child in the 1950's, and my parents and grandparents had just lived through these transitions.

    The Great Depression and subsequent war were critical elements in replacing a distant federal U.S. government with little impact on ordinary lives, with a powerful central government. Such a major shift necessitated some serious "shock therapy."

    China is in a very different position. It's central government is already the most powerful institution in China and through modern day technology to communicate, surveil and censor, is already nearly omnipresent in Chinese daily life.

    By way of analogy, the concern of the Deep State with the United States, a century ago, was to bring a half-wild horse to saddle and reins, whereas the concern of the Deep State with China now is to avoid provoking an all ready trained horse to bolt and run. The memory of past revolutions over throwing past Chinese governments runs deep in the concerns of their leaders. It has happened several times in China, over thousands of years, and most recently in the memory of the still living elders of the party.

  32. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Paul For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (5th April 2019), Luke Holiday (4th April 2019), ramus (4th April 2019)

  33. Link to Post #18
    Avalon Member
    Join Date
    25th September 2014
    Posts
    14
    Thanks
    26
    Thanked 61 times in 11 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    a comment to a remark from TomKat in one of his previous posts:
    In 2008, Gold was one of the few assets that closed in positive territory. Furthermore Gold moved from 2008 to 2011 from the 2008 low at approximately 680 USD per ounce to above 1920 USD in 2011. The myth that Gold should move lower if the dollar grows stronger is not always correct. There were phases where both, the dollar and Gold moved higher. The reason why Gold moved to a low in October 2008 was, in my opinion, not because of the stronger dollar, but rather because many hedge funds had to liquidate assets in order to cover their need for liquidity due to redemptions
    Last edited by chrifri; 4th April 2019 at 14:57.

  34. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to chrifri For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (5th April 2019), Luke Holiday (4th April 2019)

  35. Link to Post #19
    Canada Avalon Member TomKat's Avatar
    Join Date
    23rd September 2017
    Posts
    869
    Thanks
    137
    Thanked 3,207 times in 751 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    Quote Posted by Paul (here)
    Quote Posted by TomKat (here)
    Quote Posted by Paul (here)
    Once the next monetary system becomes dominant, Russia and China, who have far larger gold and silver reserves, will want of their reserves to be valued highly, and they will have sufficient leverage to make that happen. This will make them the wealthiest nations on earth, bar none.
    Yes, but in Davidson & Rees-Mogg's The Great Reckoning, they point out that as the industrial baton changes hands from the old superpower to the new, the depression is always worst in the emerging economic superpower, as it was in the US in the 1930s.
    Perhaps not so much this time.
    The wild financial speculation in the US during the Roaring 20s was eclipsed by the wild speculation in China in the last 10 years. Shadow banking and derivatives weren't even concepts back then. These bubbles occur in a new emerging superpower, before it crashes. That's part of the reason the depression is always worst there.
    And Chinese love to gamble. In the 1987 one-day crash, I was in San Francisco. I wondered why the long faces on some of the Chinese people in the subway, before I found out. I suspect the Chinese govt has already been putting fingers in the dike for the last few years. If their bubble bursts, it will be chaos. That's probably why they've exceeded even the UK in surveillance technology.

  36. The Following User Says Thank You to TomKat For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (5th April 2019)

  37. Link to Post #20
    Canada Avalon Member TomKat's Avatar
    Join Date
    23rd September 2017
    Posts
    869
    Thanks
    137
    Thanked 3,207 times in 751 posts

    Default Re: Seeking opinions on precious metal prices rising over the next 6 months

    Quote Posted by chrifri (here)
    The reason why Gold moved to a low in October 2008 was, in my opinion, not because of the stronger dollar, but rather because many hedge funds had to liquidate assets in order to cover their need for liquidity due to redemptions
    Good point. And how much gold do those hedge funds have to liquidate now? I really have no idea, but gold is out of favor, so maybe not so much.

  38. The Following User Says Thank You to TomKat For This Post:

    A Voice from the Mountains (5th April 2019)

+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 2 1 2 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts