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Thread: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    I may not be fully correct on this but surely it seems like a lot of countries are building a complete framework or system around the current US and allies based one

    It feels totally like that's what's happening, right?
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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    Quote Posted by Mashika (here)
    I may not be fully correct on this but surely it seems like a lot of countries are building a complete framework or system around the current US and allies based one

    It feels totally like that's what's happening, right?
    That is part of it.

    You can imagine the fury and cconsternation amongst the geostrategic wonks of the Council for Foreign relations etc:

    Trumps policies of neo-isolationalism are indirectly contributing to the birthing of this new multi polar world order.

    From the tyrants perspective he is achieving the following, which does not fit with their control agenda

    - encouraging brexit will empower a less atlanticist Europe, it will hopefully become a bloc that deals with China on an equal basis as the USA

    - withdrawing militarily from Europe will push the Europeans to deal honestly with Russia, as well as stand on its own two feet militarily

    - Sanctions, meddling and impediments with regard to dollar based transactions is hastening the emergence of a financial system in the east that functions beyond US, and potentially all current central banking systems control

    - being an honest peacenik, accepting that the Afghanistan tragedy must end, and withdrawing western power from there will bring in huge Iranian, Pakistani, and Russian influence into that country. Effectively the Chinese miners will come in wholesale for the rare earth minerals there(china already controls most of the worlds rare earth mineral supply)

    - the cessation of western drone strikes and general destabilisation of Pakistan will assist Chinese policy of stabilising the whole Afghan/Pakistan area. This will facilitate Pakistans integration with china which is already very strong.

    - eventually, an oil pipeline will be achievable between Iran and China.

    -As the eurasian land mass integrates economically, the illusion that US sanctions against Iran and Russia have any international recognition or standing will become clearer.

    It is through this lense that we should be viewing the manufactured flash point in Kashmir, together with the burgeoning special relationship between India and Israel. Isreal is no stranger to false flag terror, and conflict creation. I have heard this from Pakistani sources.
    Last edited by Baby Steps; 5th October 2019 at 10:20.
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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    Quote Posted by Mashika (here)
    I may not be fully correct on this but surely it seems like a lot of countries are building a complete framework or system around the current US and allies based one

    It feels totally like that's what's happening, right?
    Quote Posted by Baby Steps (here)
    ... That is part of it.

    You can imagine the fury and cconsternation amongst the geostrategic wonks of the Council for Foreign relations etc:

    Trumps policies of neo-isolationalism are indirectly contributing to the birthing of this new multi polar world order.

    From the tyrants perspective he is achieving the following, which does not fit with their control agenda

    - encouraging brexit will empower a less atlanticist Europe, it will hopefully become a bloc that deals with China on an equal basis as the USA

    - withdrawing militarily from Europe will push the Europeans to deal honestly with Russia, as well as stand on its own two feet militarily

    - Sanctions, meddling and impediments with regard to dollar based transactions is hastening the emergence of a financial system in the east that functions beyond US, and potentially all current central banking systems control

    - being an honest peacenik, accepting that the Afghanistan tragedy must end, and withdrawing western power from there will bring in huge Iranian, Pakistani, and Russian influence into that country. Effectively the Chinese miners will come in wholesale for the rare earth minerals there(china already controls most of the worlds rare earth mineral supply)

    - the cessation of western drone strikes and general destabilisation of Pakistan will assist Chinese policy of stabilising the whole Afghan/Pakistan area. This will facilitate Pakistans integration with china which is already very strong.

    - eventually, an oil pipeline will be achievable between Iran and China.

    -As the eurasian land mass integrates economically, the illusion that US sanctions against Iran and Russia have any international recognition or standing will become clearer.

    It is through this lense that we should be viewing the manufactured flash point in Kashmir, together with the burgeoning special relationship between India and Israel. Isreal is no stranger to false flag terror, and conflict creation. I have heard this from Pakistani sources.
    Thanks Mashika and Baby Steps.

    It’s an interesting question: just what is it that’s going on?

    There seem to be quite a few different views and explanations, depending on the point of perspective. The huge amount of media spin and narrative doesn’t help in making sense of it either.

    Here’s a view from James Corbett where he essentially says that there’s an emerging Cold War 2.0 coming into being, and that its development has been underway for quite some time.

    Quote Interview 1482 – The China Deception on This Week in Money
    Corbett 10/01/2019

    The mainstream are framing the rise of China as a competitor to the US in the same terms as they did the Cold War with the Soviet Union. And, just as the Cold War was a charade facilitated by lend lease and technology transfers, so, too, is the New Cold War facilitated by technology transfers to China that are framed as “IP theft.” James Corbett joins Jim Goddard on This Week in Money to set the record straight on how the Clash of Civilizations 2.0 is being used to justify domestic clampdowns, social credit surveillance, and military build up.

    From: https://www.corbettreport.com/interv...week-in-money/
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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    Hey Cara, I'm a member of LarouchPac and we've been very instrumental in the BRICS, Belt and Road, etc. That baby eating woman stuff was us as well. That was a Manhattan Project LarouchPac volunteer who pulled that one off. I noticed that you checked my profile. Feel free to ask me any questions if you have any. I look forward to getting to know you and making some significant contributions to the forum. I've got a big task on my hands and I look forward to discussing it with the members and getting their feedback.
    Best regards,
    Nathan

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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    Quote Posted by Haujean Contactee (here)
    etc.
    Sorry to interrupt but, could you expand on that?

    Quote That baby eating woman stuff was us as well. That was a Manhattan Project LarouchPac volunteer who pulled that one off.
    I just would like to ask how you present that as good credentials, and how that fits with the Eurasia situation?

    Did you meant to say "LaRouchePAC" ?
    Last edited by Mashika; 6th October 2019 at 10:05.
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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    Yes, it was Larouchepac who was behind that stunt. I have a contact named Gerry in the Baltimore Maryland office who validated it a couple of days ago. How it fits in is because if you go to their website the BRICS, The Belt and Road, etc, are all in opposition to the Trans Atlantic program of depopulation. So you have two sides of the planet in opposition to each others agenda. If you do research you will find that it was Larouchepac that was behind these initiatives in the first place. They have people active in Russia, China, etc, who have worked with their representatives to adopt these polices to counter the IMF and it's refusal to offer affordable credit to developing nations. The Manhattan project is an activist program that they run in NYC which is where that woman came from.
    Last edited by Haujean Contactee; 7th October 2019 at 07:22.

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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    Quote Posted by Haujean Contactee (here)
    Yes, it was Larouchepac who was behind that stunt. I have a contact named Gerry in the Baltimore Maryland office who validated it a couple of days ago. How it fits in is because if you go to their website the BRICS, The Belt and Road, etc, are all in opposition to the Trans Atlantic program of depopulation. So you have two sides of the planet in opposition to each others agenda. If you do research you will find that it was Larouchepac that was behind these initiatives in the first place. They have people active in Russia, China, etc, who have worked with their representatives to adopt these polices to counter the IMF and it's refusal to offer affordable credit to developing nations. The Manhattan project is an activist program that they run in NYC which is where that woman came from.
    http://infobrics.org/
    This is the BRICS official website, i could not find any reference to the Trans Atlantic program of depopulation, so you may be reading that from the info on that site or in another site? I just can't find it so i think it would be best if you link to it

    Yes i know i'm difficult, i'm sorry :/


    LaRouchePAC was behind the eating baby stuff. But... How what that woman said affects in any way the Belt and Road initiative? or BRICS? Can you expand on that, please

    Quote They have people active in Russia, China, etc, who have worked with their representatives to adopt these polices to counter the IMF and it's refusal to offer affordable credit to developing nations.
    LaRouchePAC does? Can you describe what policies you are referencing here?

    I find it odd that you say "they" when you previously said you are with them
    Last edited by Mashika; 7th October 2019 at 08:23.
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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    This is a very interesting economic analysis from a Marxist perspective (the economic school of thought, not necessarily the ideological translation of it) of China's economy.

    It touches on geopolitical issues and provides some views on the intellectual property debate. Also discussed is the structure of economies and how the accessibility of technology can determine broader issues including "left behind" regions and "brain drains".


    Quote Prof. Harvey continues his discussion of rate and mass of surplus value. He argues that the emergence of the Equalization of the Rate of Profit (ERP) in the 1980s has been responsible for the transfer of value from labor-intensive to capital-intensive modes of production. Knowledge has become a valuable commodity that can be bought and sold in the market.

    Read the full episode transcript here: https://www.democracyatwork.info/acc...nese_economies
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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    Also relevant here:

    Quote Posted by TomKat (here)
    Does Trump have it backwards? This economist points out that if you count services and profitability, the Chinese are probably running a trade deficit with the US.



    And that's why they can't cave into Trump's demands.
    Quote Posted by Cara (here)
    Thanks TomKat.

    This is a useful (and not mentioned) part of the story to know. Trade in services is not typically included in the trade war media narrative.
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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    Here’s political economist David Harvey with an interesting economic analysis of the factors influencing Trump’s anti-China stance followed by a review of the economic situation and changes taking place in China.


    Quote At the recent UN summit, Trump berates China and vehemently declares it to be an enemy of the US. China’s predatory tactics according to Trump have destroyed the International order and are a clear attack on intellectual property rights. These words have serious implications warns Harvey.
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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    The one child policy thing, i have seen/read about that going on in other countries, under different policy names. All those countries are now facing an older population and very few younger citizens who care or want to do anything about it

    So weird, but i can remember reading about it from the UK, Japan, China, Mexico, South Korea and others. And it's like a common thing because of those choices so many years back

    Manual labor is not possible, if there's no one capable to do it

    Also like in Mexico, it happened more than 20 years ago right? Werent they exporters? And somehow they found themselves depending on imports, internal markets died because of wrong choices so now they can't produce anything but also don't have enough money to import so people got very poor. Inevitable and desperate young people turned into drug dealing and so on.

    Labor intensive stuff seems like a nice thing to happen right away, pretty sure politicians sell it as that, jobs for everyone and a better future and so on. Except it ends up killing the country over time and then no one will be there to handle the misery that comes with it
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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    This may be significant: India and the US have apparently suspended their Defense Cooperation. From the article, it seems the disagreement is about jet engine technology which General Electric developed. Other problems and disagreements that have occurred between India and the US are added to the article to “fill out the picture”.

    The article was submitted by GreatGameIndia to ZeroHedge. Both publications have some kind of agenda (which I’m not clear about) - so reader beware.

    Quote India, US Officially Suspend Defense Cooperation
    Sun, 10/27/2019 - 00:00
    Submitted by GreatGameIndia, a journal on Geopolitics and International Relations.

    In a major development brewing for sometime now, India and US have officially suspended Defense Cooperation after Americans refused to give India high-end jet-engine technology. At the heart of the Indo-US Strategic Partnership is what is known as the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative or DTTI. Under the 2012 DTTI, India and the US set up joint working groups (JWGs) for cooperation on aircraft carriers and jet engine technology, all of the 4 pathfinder projects have now been shutdown. The move comes days after former US Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger’s visit to India.

    India and the United States have suspended cooperation on jet engine technology under the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) that seeks to deepen bilateral cooperation and identify opportunities for sharing of high-end defence technologies, a senior Pentagon official revealed on Thursday. The US export controls is one of the reasons for dropping the cooperation on jet engine technology, she said.

    “The original project (jet engine technology) we have is suspended right now but we are talking about other potential engine working groups. We could not come to an understanding of what exportable technologies will be useful to India and we did run into a challenge in terms of US export controls,” said Ellen Lord, the US under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment.

    She was interacting with a small group of reporters after holding talks with secretary (defence production) Subhash Chandra at the 9th DTTI group meeting held in New Delhi. She said there was an enormous amount of aircraft technology that India and the US could work on together. “I know that in the past, there have been frustrations with progress under DTTI, but I can assure you that we are making considerable progress.”



    She said the two sides had come a long way since the JWG format began in 2015. “The JWG co-chairs are working hard to show progress on current projects and identify new ones. The technologies that they are discussing are significant…”

    Air Vice Marshal Manmohan Bahadur (retd), additional director general, Centre for Air Power Studies, said, “It would have been over optimistic to expect the Americans to give us high-end engine technology — no one parts with such strategic know-how. We must go for realistic technologies that we lack — and there are many such techs which the US can give.”

    Defense Technology and Trade Initiative

    At the heart of the Indo-US Strategic Partnership is what is known as the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative. DTTI was launched in 2012 with Secretary Leon Panetta appointing the then Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter to lead the ambitious initiative “to pursue four pathfinder DTTI projects for possible co-development and/or co-production, as well as cooperation on aircraft carriers and jet engine technology”.



    Seven joint working groups were also launched with the yearly meetings to take place alternatively in the two countries

    Load Bearing Pillar

    By all accounts, the defence partnership is the engine of bilateral ties — the “load-bearing pillar”, to quote Joshua White, a former administration official. But how solid is that load-bearing pillar in reality? Insiders say that contradictions, confusion, a mismatch of supply and demand and a lack of clearly defined objectives have restricted progress.

    Jet-engine Working Group Shutdown

    At its last meeting in July (2018), DTTI’s jet engine working group was shut down for lack of progress. They chose to call it a “strategic pause”. Apparently, the divergence between what India wanted and what the US and General Electric were willing to offer was too wide.

    It’s obvious that GE will not part with its crown jewel having spent billions in R&D. As someone said, “it’s the one thing the company has”. GE executives saw it as a compromise of their intellectual property to even suggest improvements in an indigenous Indian engine (Kaveri). Differences also emerged because the US wanted a measure of where India was in terms of indigenous engine technology. India was not keen on open access and benchmarking.



    Four Pathfinder Projects

    The four ‘pathfinder’ projects envisioned by DTTI were:
    • Next-generation Raven Mini UAVs (rejected by Indian Army as being low-tech)
    • Roll-on and roll-off kits for C-130 (not moved forward)
    • Mobile electric hybrid power source (closed)
    • Protector kit against chemical/bio/nuclear fallout (closed)
    To add to the gloom, the India Rapid Reaction Cell set up by Pentagon to fast-track DTTI projects has been downsized.

    Moreover, according to leaked information of a high-level meeting, the United States and India’s failure to reach a long-expected trade deal on Sept. 24 has sparked fears of a full-fledged India US trade war.

    India US Trade War

    On Sept. 24, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal met on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, raising expectations that the two sides were poised to reveal a new trade deal following months of talks. But according to information leaked from the meeting as reported by Stratfor, the negotiators failed to agree on Indian concessions on information and communication technology, dairy, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, e-commerce, and data localization — in short, every bone of contention that have stymied an agreement for months. Still, U.S. President Donald Trump told visiting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi the same day that they would be able to announce a trade deal soon.

    Bilateral trade, which totaled $142.1 billion last year, remains the major friction point in the U.S.-India relationship. India exported $83.2 billion worth of goods and services to the United States and imported $58.9 billion, resulting in a $24.3 billion surplus. Trump, pointing to the imbalance, has singled Modi out in the past as the “tariff king,” demanding that New Delhi reduce its trade surplus with Washington and lower tariff barriers for American commerce in India.



    The US imposed on India an additional tariff of 25% and 10% on import of steel and aluminum products in March last year. In April, a Congressional Research Service brief on US-India trade relations noted, “Bilateral tensions have increased over each side’s tariff policies.” Then, on May 31 – the day after the inauguration of NDA government to start its second term – the Trump administration announced that it was terminating India’s participation in the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) which allows eligible developing countries to import to the United States duty free. Last year, the GSP accounted for approximately $5 billion of the $83.2 billion in imports India sent to the US.

    In response, the government of India imposed retaliatory tariffs on 28 products originating or exported from the US with effect from 16th June this year. India is expected to get an additional $217 million of revenue from the retaliatory tariffs. This tit-for-tat created substantial tension in the India-US relationship going into the G20 Summit.
    From: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...se-cooperation
    Last edited by Cara; 28th October 2019 at 06:04.
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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    China is preparing for a manned moon landing.

    Quote China drawing up plan for manned lunar exploration

    XIAMEN, Oct. 28 (Xinhua) -- China is carrying out in-depth demonstration and long-term planning for its manned lunar exploration, and has formed an overall consensus and a preliminary plan, according to a senior space engineer.

    At the 1st China Space Science Assembly held in Xiamen, east China's Fujian Province, from Oct. 25 to Oct. 28, Chen Shanguang, deputy chief designer of China's manned space program, said the future trend of manned space cause is to explore the moon, and establish a lunar base to carry out scientific research, and accumulate technology and experience for going deeper into space. "The long-term goal is to send people to Mars."

    The manned lunar exploration will help improve human's understanding of the formation and evolution of the moon, as astronauts may set up facilities on the moon to obtain scientific data and samples, Chen said.

    The astronauts may carry out multi-disciplinary research involving fields such as physics, chemistry, astronomy and geology, and in-situ resource utilization by taking advantage of the characteristics of the moon, such as low gravity, weak magnetic field and high vacuum. The research could promote innovation and development of basic science, he said.

    Solving the scientific problems involving human survival on the moon could lay a foundation for human beings to go further into deep space, Chen added.
    From: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/201..._138509382.htm
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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    Also relevant here:

    Quote Posted by Helvetic (here)
    China’s Hidden Economic Time Bomb
    By F. William Engdahl
    Source: williamengdahl.com
    22 October 2019


    The China government statistical agency just released economic data showing the poorest GDP growth in almost 30 years for China. The problem goes far deeper than recent effects of the US-China trade war or the impact of calamities such as African Swine Fever that have decimated the nation’s pig herds. The underlying far more serious problem is an emerging disaster that few are willing to discuss openly.


    Since about 2017 China’s population has begun to feel the real impact of the ill-conceived One Child Policy imposed by the Communist Party in 1979, some 40 years ago. This slow-growing problem, once seen as benefit, is undermining the entire basis of the China Economic Miracle. The question is whether Beijing can make the transition to an ageing population without major social and economic dislocation.

    On October 18 the China State Statistics bureau released Third Quarter GDP which came in at 6.0% compared with 6.2% the previous quarter. While there is great skepticism as to how honest the reporting is, the fact the government must announce a slowing growth at all suggests the situation in reality could be far worse.

    The true data on China’s economy remain opaque. In December 2018 the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics published its annual transparency survey on the 31 provincial-level regions. The average score was just above 53%. The study concluded, “[Unfortunately,] the general level of transparency in China’s local governments remains poor.”

    A more direct indicator of the health of the economy comes from actual trade data. Bloomberg reports that auto sales in China have fallen for the 15th month out of 16 months in September. It’s the “worst slump in a generation”, according to Bloomberg. As well, sales of new homes and apartments in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities fell dramatically to lows of 2014.

    The deeper issue is not the transparency of official economic data. The deeper issue is whether the China Miracle, the remarkable rise from a Third World level backwardness in less than three decades, is entering a structural crisis that will impact not only China’s economy. The recent data on new car sales and new home buying could be an ominous indicator that the China boom years are coming into a drastic slowing with huge consequences not only for China but also for the world.

    Golden Era Peaks


    Like no other economy in modern history, China’s remarkable economic rise has been facilitated by an extraordinary short-term demographic blessing. That blessing has begun to turn into a curse.

    In the 1980’s as China officially opened its economy to Western factories and investment, China had what seemed to be an endless pool of low wage labor power from the countryside to build its roads, new cities and assemble its goods in factories of the likes of Nike or VW or Apple to be shipped to the world. In 1987, the early days of China’s economic miracle, 64 percent of the population were of working age, and only 4 percent were aged above 65. That meant a huge surplus of workers to feed China’s low-cost manufacturing boom. This drove the average 10-11 percent annual GDP growth seen between 1987 and 2007.

    So long as globalization with the rules of the newly-created World Trade Organization encouraged the outsourcing of manufacture to China with its huge work force and ultra-low wages, China was booming like no other.

    In 1979, alarmed at a population that had been increasing from 1950 to 1978, at a 20 percent annual natural population growth rate, the Communist Party imposed a draconian One Child Policy. Deng Xiaoping as part of the Four Modernizations, set a goal to keep the population at 1.2 billion by 2000 as part of the formula for quadrupling China’s GDP within the same period.

    The longer term economic consequences of that policy were not to emerge until some three decades, roughly a generation later, around the time, significantly, of the 2008-9 world economic crisis. A case can be made that the rising wages in China’s manufacturing sector, occasioned by the first shortages of manpower beginning around 2007-10, were more a factor for the severity of the world financial crisis at that time than was merely the US real estate market.

    China’s turn to what Deng Xiaoping called “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics” after 1979 was in fact a state-controlled turn to western companies and investment to take advantage of China’s seemingly unlimited low cost labor. That labor mostly came from those born prior to 1979, before the One Child Policy. A worker in his mid-20s in 1980 was in his 50s by the time of the 2008-9 crisis in the West. Demographic change is a slow process and could be overlooked in the boom years before 2008. Now, in the past decade, manufacturing wages across China are rising and the population born under the One Child era are notably fewer, adding to recent rising wage pressures.

    As China’s manufacturing has moved up the value-added chain as part of its development strategy of Made in China, wages have risen significantly. The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that from 2013-2020 average manufacturing labor costs have risen on average 12% a year. Today average factory wage costs in China are some three times that of India and far higher than in Indonesia or Vietnam.

    At the same time as higher skilled labor is needed for China’s fast-developing manufacturing base, especially under the mandates of the Made in China2025 transformation to a world high-tech economy, the size of the overall workforce, once considered nearly limitless, has begun to decline. China’s labor force peaked in 2015 and has begun shrinking, albeit slowly at first. That decline now is pre-programmed to accelerate as the pre-1979 workforce reaches retirement age and is not replaced in equal numbers after 1979 due to the drastic decline in births. According to Deutsche Bank estimates, the work force will shrink from 911 million in 2015, to 849 million in 2020, and to 782 million in 2030. Barring a dramatic change in birth rates, beginning about 2025 China’s overall population will begin a slow but accelerating decline as well.

    In 2017 China had a fertility rate well below population replacement levels of 2.1 needed to sustain population size. Slowly realizing the long-term implications, in 2013 the Communist Party moved to slightly lift the limit to two children for some families, and by 2016 to 2 children for all. Even if the result had been as hoped, it would take at least a generation to change the dynamics. However, the policy has yet to produce any major increase in birth rates for a complex of reasons.

    Ageing Shift


    Not only is China’s labor force declining and wages rising, China’s overall population is ageing faster than any comparable country, owing to the combination of rapid economic growth and the limits on children over the past four decades. With improving living standards in rural areas the longevity of the population has improved significantly. Life expectancy in China increased increased from 43 years in 1960 to 75 years in 2013.

    China is ageing faster than almost any other country because the number of new births has been blocked while those born are living far longer. By 2016 China had the lowest fertility rate in the world—1.05 according to China’s 2016 State Statistical Bureau data. Social changes encourage young women to postpone marriage and pursue careers, while rural practice encourages male over female births, all of which drive fertility rates lower.

    China’s elderly population (over sixty), 14 percent in 2016, will grow to 24 percent of the population by 2030, and will reach 39 percent of the population by 2050. At that time, China’s dependency ratio–the number of people below 15 and above 65 divided by the total working population–is projected to increase to 70 percent, up from 37 percent in 2015. This means a dramatically smaller working-age population with the responsibility of providing for both the young and old. In other words a shrinking relative number of working age taxpayers is facing the growing number of elderly retirees. To avert social unrest the government must somehow undertake huge costs to provide for the elderly.

    Traditionally, younger Chinese have taken care of their elderly parents but now, with significantly fewer working children to care for the older retirees, the government will be forced to secure some improved form of social benefits, health care and income support at a time trade surpluses are declining and state debt soaring. At the same time young families are under pressure to increase family size which increases family costs as well. An estimated 23 percent of the elderly in China today cannot take care of themselves, while in 2010 only 43 percent of elderly males and 13 percent of elderly females received any financial pension. While Japan became rich before its population aged, China will not. Ageing of China is a social ticking time bomb.

    While all this might sound similar to problems faced by many countries such as Italy or Germany, given the scale of China’s role in the world economy and the dramatic shift in just a few years from what was called a “demographic dividend” —acceleration of economic growth following a decline in birth and death rates—to what might be now called a “demographic disaster,” China is unique.

    It becomes clear that the urgency with which Xi Jinping and the Party leadership is promoting its Belt, Road Initiative, as well as Made in China 2025, as an attempt to achieve a near impossible economic feat. Yet the demographic shift is here, while the hoped-for dividends from the BRI and Made in China2025 look far remote at this point. The sharp declines in recent months in domestic consumption for cars and housing could in fact be far more alarming than a mere cyclical downturn. It could well be the first signs of the negative global economics of the huge China demographic shift now unfolding.

    F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”


    ¤=[Post Update]=¤

    Also relevant here:

    Quote Posted by Jayke (here)
    The “Great Green Wall of China”?

    In an effort to clean up air pollution, China have been utilising 60,000 soldiers to plant 12 Billion trees a year.
    This is huge if it turns out to be true and the NASA satellite images can be verified. Greening the Mongolian desert!

    *I have loved the stars too dearly to be fearful of the night*

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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    This article is also relevant here. Does the New Silk Road extend to the moon?

    Quote Posted by Cara (here)
    Economic development in space as seen by the Chinese:

    Quote Space economy: China wants to set up $10 trillion Earth-Moon economic zone


    4 Nov, 2019 09:03

    As Earth is apparently too small for China’s economic ambitions, the country is considering developing commerce beyond our planet and wants to create an economic zone in cislunar space by 2050.

    The new zone will cover areas of space near Earth, the Moon, and in between, Bao Weimin, the head of the science and technology commission at the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CAST), revealed last week, as cited by state media. The agency is the main contractor for the national space program.

    The project could bring in around $10 trillion for China, state-linked Science and Technology Daily newspaper reported, citing industry experts.

    In a report on the development of Earth and Moon space, Bao said that the field has huge economic potential and thus the country should study reliable, low-cost aerospace transport systems between our planet and its satellite.

    The basic technology is set to be finished by 2030, while the key transport technology is expected to be created by 2040. By the middle of the century, China could successfully establish the space economic zone, according to the official.

    China has been rapidly developing its space sector and studying the Moon in recent years. In July, private company i-Space (also known as Beijing Interstellar Glory Space Technology) launched a carrier rocket in the first successful orbital mission by the Chinese commercial space industry. Last year, China launched its Chang’e 4 probe, successfully landing its lunar rover on the far side of the Moon on January 3.
    From: https://www.rt.com/business/472554-c...mpression=true
    *I have loved the stars too dearly to be fearful of the night*

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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    Quote Posted by Mashika (here)
    I may not be fully correct on this but surely it seems like a lot of countries are building a complete framework or system around the current US and allies based one

    It feels totally like that's what's happening, right?
    The US seems to be intentionally forcing Russia and China to unite against the West. I don't know what the ultimate goal is, other than the familiar formula of building up an enemy to defeat.

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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    China’s TenCent extends WeChatPay to foreigners:

    *I have loved the stars too dearly to be fearful of the night*

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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    Quote Posted by Cara (here)
    This may be significant: India and the US have apparently suspended their Defense Cooperation. From the article, it seems the disagreement is about jet engine technology which General Electric developed. Other problems and disagreements that have occurred between India and the US are added to the article to “fill out the picture”.

    [...]

    Jet-engine Working Group Shutdown

    At its last meeting in July (2018), DTTI’s jet engine working group was shut down for lack of progress. They chose to call it a “strategic pause”. Apparently, the divergence between what India wanted and what the US and General Electric were willing to offer was too wide.

    It’s obvious that GE will not part with its crown jewel having spent billions in R&D. As someone said, “it’s the one thing the company has”. GE executives saw it as a compromise of their intellectual property to even suggest improvements in an indigenous Indian engine (Kaveri). Differences also emerged because the US wanted a measure of where India was in terms of indigenous engine technology. India was not keen on open access and benchmarking.

    [...]
    That snippet says it all. Advanced jet engines belong to the realm of ultimate hi-tech -- very few nations have the know-how to build them: US and Russia -- maybe Germany/Britain/France and maybe China. For whatever reason Modi (India) hoped to get that advanced tech for free ... but the US said "nope."

    Quote There is a reason why only wealthy countries are able to make jet engines. For China, it took us 50 years at least. We started accumulating knowledge before we can even test or make it. Rocket engines last only a few minutes, they are not turbo fan engines. They have to last thousands of hours. The US has a century of experience. When building an engine, the hard part is…you are not just building an engine…you are trying to build one of the best engines the world has ever known, for it to qualify to be on a 5th gen jet. A single part like the turbo fan takes a whole ecosystem of matured industry. A fighter jet is the combined science and industry of an entire country. An engine, takes at least 10 years to test, even if you are Rolls Royce or General electric.
    https://www.quora.com/Why-is-India-u...e-for-fighters

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    Default Re: Watching Eurasia and the New Silk Road / One Belt One Road (OBOR)

    Some weeks ago China and Iran announced a set of new strategic agreements - “China and Iran flesh out strategic partnership” (posted here: http://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...=1#post1314924).

    Now the Iranians announce a vast new oil field.

    I suspect the Chinese knew all about this one.

    Quote Iran discovers new oil field
    Iran's president has described a massive find in the oil-rich Khuzestan province. But sanctions against Iranian oil could make it difficult for the oil to find its way to international markets.

    21 hours ago



    Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Sunday said a new oil field was discovered in the Khuzestan province.

    He said the new field has more than 50 billion barrels of crude oil, which would boost the country's proven reserves by a third.

    "I am telling the White House that in the days when you sanctioned the sale of Iranian oil, the country's workers and engineers were able to discover 53 billion barrels of oil," Rouhani said. "This is a small gift by the government to the people of Iran."

    The field could become Iran's second-largest oil field, behind Ahvaz with 65 billion barrels of crude.

    Iranian President Hassan Rouhani described it as a major find.

    Searching for solutions

    The announcement comes days after Iran announced it would begin enriching uranium, marking another breach of the 2015 nuclear deal.

    The Islamic Republic is under crushing US sanctions targeting its energy sector, and more specifically preventing Iranian oil from reaching international markets.

    In the wake of the 2015 nuclear deal, Iranian oil had once again become a major source of revenue for the country. US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the deal and later sanction Iranian oil has put Tehran under pressure to find new solutions.

    European signatories to the deal have been trying to save it from collapsing, but Iran's decision to move forward with uranium enrichment last week has further undermined those efforts.
    From: https://amp.dw.com/en/iran-discovers...mpression=true
    *I have loved the stars too dearly to be fearful of the night*

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