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    United States Avalon Member Ayt's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States
    Quote January 31, 2020
    DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

    List of authors.
    Michelle L. Holshue, M.P.H.,
    Chas DeBolt, M.P.H.,
    Scott Lindquist, M.D.,
    Kathy H. Lofy, M.D.,
    John Wiesman, Dr.P.H.,
    Hollianne Bruce, M.P.H.,
    Christopher Spitters, M.D.,
    Keith Ericson, P.A.-C.,
    Sara Wilkerson, M.N.,
    Ahmet Tural, M.D.,
    George Diaz, M.D.,
    Amanda Cohn, M.D.,
    et al.,
    for the Washington State 2019-nCoV Case Investigation Team*
    Article
    Figures/Media

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    Summary

    An outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) that began in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly, with cases now confirmed in multiple countries. We report the first case of 2019-nCoV infection confirmed in the United States and describe the identification, diagnosis, clinical course, and management of the case, including the patient’s initial mild symptoms at presentation with progression to pneumonia on day 9 of illness. This case highlights the importance of close coordination between clinicians and public health authorities at the local, state, and federal levels, as well as the need for rapid dissemination of clinical information related to the care of patients with this emerging infection.On December 31, 2019, China reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in people associated with the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, Hubei Province.1 On January 7, 2020, Chinese health authorities confirmed that this cluster was associated with a novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV.2Although cases were originally reported to be associated with exposure to the seafood market in Wuhan, current epidemiologic data indicate that person-to-person transmission of 2019-nCoV is occurring.3-6 As of January 30, 2020, a total of 9976 cases had been reported in at least 21 countries,7 including the first confirmed case of 2019-nCoV infection in the United States, reported on January 20, 2020. Investigations are under way worldwide to better understand transmission dynamics and the spectrum of clinical illness. This report describes the epidemiologic and clinical features of the first case of 2019-nCoV infection confirmed in the United States.Case Report

    On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On checking into the clinic, the patient put on a mask in the waiting room. After waiting approximately 20 minutes, he was taken into an examination room and underwent evaluation by a provider. He disclosed that he had returned to Washington State on January 15 after traveling to visit family in Wuhan, China. The patient stated that he had seen a health alert from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about the novel coronavirus outbreak in China and, because of his symptoms and recent travel, decided to see a health care provider.

    Figure 1.Posteroanterior and Lateral Chest Radiographs, January 19, 2020 (Illness Day 4).

    Apart from a history of hypertriglyceridemia, the patient was an otherwise healthy nonsmoker. The physical examination revealed a body temperature of 37.2°C, blood pressure of 134/87 mm Hg, pulse of 110 beats per minute, respiratory rate of 16 breaths per minute, and oxygen saturation of 96% while the patient was breathing ambient air. Lung auscultation revealed rhonchi, and chest radiography was performed, which was reported as showing no abnormalities (Figure 1). A rapid nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for influenza A and B was negative. A nasopharyngeal swab specimen was obtained and sent for detection of viral respiratory pathogens by NAAT; this was reported back within 48 hours as negative for all pathogens tested, including influenza A and B, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus, and four common coronavirus strains known to cause illness in humans (HKU1, NL63, 229E, and OC43).

    Given the patient’s travel history, the local and state health departments were immediately notified. Together with the urgent care clinician, the Washington Department of Health notified the CDC Emergency Operations Center. Although the patient reported that he had not spent time at the Huanan seafood market and reported no known contact with ill persons during his travel to China, CDC staff concurred with the need to test the patient for 2019-nCoV on the basis of current CDC “persons under investigation” case definitions.8 Specimens were collected in accordance with CDC guidance and included serum and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens. After specimen collection, the patient was discharged to home isolation with active monitoring by the local health department.

    On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV by real-time reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. In coordination with CDC subject-matter experts, state and local health officials, emergency medical services, and hospital leadership and staff, the patient was admitted to an airborne-isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center for clinical observation, with health care workers following CDC recommendations for contact, droplet, and airborne precautions with eye protection.9

    On admission, the patient reported persistent dry cough and a 2-day history of nausea and vomiting; he reported that he had no shortness of breath or chest pain. Vital signs were within normal ranges. On physical examination, the patient was found to have dry mucous membranes. The remainder of the examination was generally unremarkable. After admission, the patient received supportive care, including 2 liters of normal saline and ondansetron for nausea.

    Figure 2.Symptoms and Maximum Body Temperatures According to Day of Illness and Day of Hospitalization, January 16 to January 30, 2020.

    On days 2 through 5 of hospitalization (days 6 through 9 of illness), the patient’s vital signs remained largely stable, apart from the development of intermittent fevers accompanied by periods of tachycardia (Figure 2). The patient continued to report a nonproductive cough and appeared fatigued. On the afternoon of hospital day 2, the patient passed a loose bowel movement and reported abdominal discomfort. A second episode of loose stool was reported overnight; a sample of this stool was collected for rRT-PCR testing, along with additional respiratory specimens (nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal) and serum. The stool and both respiratory specimens later tested positive by rRT-PCR for 2019-nCoV, whereas the serum remained negative.

    Treatment during this time was largely supportive. For symptom management, the patient received, as needed, antipyretic therapy consisting of 650 mg of acetaminophen every 4 hours and 600 mg of ibuprofen every 6 hours. He also received 600 mg of guaifenesin for his continued cough and approximately 6 liters of normal saline over the first 6 days of hospitalization.

    Table 1.Clinical Laboratory Results.

    The nature of the patient isolation unit permitted only point-of-care laboratory testing initially; complete blood counts and serum chemical studies were available starting on hospital day 3. Laboratory results on hospital days 3 and 5 (illness days 7 and 9) reflected leukopenia, mild thrombocytopenia, and elevated levels of creatine kinase (Table 1). In addition, there were alterations in hepatic function measures: levels of alkaline phosphatase (68 U per liter), alanine aminotransferase (105 U per liter), aspartate aminotransferase (77 U per liter), and lactate dehydrogenase (465 U per liter) were all elevated on day 5 of hospitalization. Given the patient’s recurrent fevers, blood cultures were obtained on day 4; these have shown no growth to date.

    Figure 3.Posteroanterior and Lateral Chest Radiographs, January 22, 2020 (Illness Day 7, Hospital Day 3).Figure 4.Posteroanterior Chest Radiograph, January 24, 2020 (Illness Day 9, Hospital Day 5).

    A chest radiograph taken on hospital day 3 (illness day 7) was reported as showing no evidence of infiltrates or abnormalities (Figure 3). However, a second chest radiograph from the night of hospital day 5 (illness day 9) showed evidence of pneumonia in the lower lobe of the left lung (Figure 4). These radiographic findings coincided with a change in respiratory status starting on the evening of hospital day 5, when the patient’s oxygen saturation values as measured by pulse oximetry dropped to as low as 90% while he was breathing ambient air. On day 6, the patient was started on supplemental oxygen, delivered by nasal cannula at 2 liters per minute. Given the changing clinical presentation and concern about hospital-acquired pneumonia, treatment with vancomycin (a 1750-mg loading dose followed by 1 g administered intravenously every 8 hours) and cefepime (administered intravenously every 8 hours) was initiated.

    Figure 5.Anteroposterior and Lateral Chest Radiographs, January 26, 2020 (Illness Day 10, Hospital Day 6).

    On hospital day 6 (illness day 10), a fourth chest radiograph showed basilar streaky opacities in both lungs, a finding consistent with atypical pneumonia (Figure 5), and rales were noted in both lungs on auscultation. Given the radiographic findings, the decision to administer oxygen supplementation, the patient’s ongoing fevers, the persistent positive 2019-nCoV RNA at multiple sites, and published reports of the development of severe pneumonia3,4 at a period consistent with the development of radiographic pneumonia in this patient, clinicians pursued compassionate use of an investigational antiviral therapy. Treatment with intravenous remdesivir (a novel nucleotide analogue prodrug in development10,11) was initiated on the evening of day 7, and no adverse events were observed in association with the infusion. Vancomycin was discontinued on the evening of day 7, and cefepime was discontinued on the following day, after serial negative procalcitonin levels and negative nasal PCR testing for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

    On hospital day 8 (illness day 12), the patient’s clinical condition improved. Supplemental oxygen was discontinued, and his oxygen saturation values improved to 94 to 96% while he was breathing ambient air. The previous bilateral lower-lobe rales were no longer present. His appetite improved, and he was asymptomatic aside from intermittent dry cough and rhinorrhea. As of January 30, 2020, the patient remains hospitalized. He is afebrile, and all symptoms have resolved with the exception of his cough, which is decreasing in severity.Methods

    SPECIMEN COLLECTION

    Clinical specimens for 2019-nCoV diagnostic testing were obtained in accordance with CDC guidelines.12 Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab specimens were collected with synthetic fiber swabs; each swab was inserted into a separate sterile tube containing 2 to 3 ml of viral transport medium. Serum was collected in a serum separator tube and then centrifuged in accordance with CDC guidelines. The urine and stool specimens were each collected in sterile specimen containers. Specimens were stored between 2°C and 8°C until ready for shipment to the CDC. Specimens for repeat 2019-nCoV testing were collected on illness days 7, 11, and 12 and included nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs, serum, and urine and stool samples. DIAGNOSTIC TESTING FOR 2019-NCOV

    Clinical specimens were tested with an rRT-PCR assay that was developed from the publicly released virus sequence. Similar to previous diagnostic assays for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), it has three nucleocapsid gene targets and a positive control target. A description of this assay13 and sequence information for the rRT-PCR panel primers and probes14 are available on the CDC Laboratory Information website for 2019-nCoV.15GENETIC SEQUENCING

    On January 7, 2020, Chinese researchers shared the full genetic sequence of 2019-nCoV through the National Institutes of Health GenBank database16 and the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID)17 database; a report about the isolation of 2019-nCoV was later published.18 Nucleic acid was extracted from rRT-PCR–positive specimens (oropharyngeal and nasopharyngeal) and used for whole-genome sequencing on both Sanger and next-generation sequencing platforms (Illumina and MinIon). Sequence assembly was completed with the use of Sequencher software, version 5.4.6 (Sanger); minimap software, version 2.17 (MinIon); and freebayes software, version 1.3.1 (MiSeq). Complete genomes were compared with the available 2019-nCoV reference sequence (GenBank accession number NC_045512.2).Results

    SPECIMEN TESTING FOR 2019-NCOV

    Table 2.Results of Real-Time Reverse-Transcriptase–Polymerase-Chain-Reaction Testing for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

    The initial respiratory specimens (nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs) obtained from this patient on day 4 of his illness were positive for 2019-nCoV (Table 2). The low cycle threshold (Ct) values (18 to 20 in nasopharyngeal specimens and 21 to 22 in oropharyngeal specimens) on illness day 4 suggest high levels of virus in these specimens, despite the patient’s initial mild symptom presentation. Both upper respiratory specimens obtained on illness day 7 remained positive for 2019-nCoV, including persistent high levels in a nasopharyngeal swab specimen (Ct values, 23 to 24). Stool obtained on illness day 7 was also positive for 2019-nCoV (Ct values, 36 to 38). Serum specimens for both collection dates were negative for 2019-nCoV. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal specimens obtained on illness days 11 and 12 showed a trend toward decreasing levels of virus. The oropharyngeal specimen tested negative for 2019-nCoV on illness day 12. The rRT-PCR results for serum obtained on these dates are still pending. GENETIC SEQUENCING

    The full genome sequences from oropharyngeal and nasopharyngeal specimens were identical to one another and were nearly identical to other available 2019-nCoV sequences. There were only 3 nucleotides and 1 amino acid that differed at open reading frame 8 between this patient’s virus and the 2019-nCoV reference sequence (NC_045512.2). The sequence is available through GenBank (accession number MN985325).16DISCUSSION

    Our report of the first confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in the United States illustrates several aspects of this emerging outbreak that are not yet fully understood, including transmission dynamics and the full spectrum of clinical illness. Our case patient had traveled to Wuhan, China, but reported that he had not visited the wholesale seafood market or health care facilities or had any sick contacts during his stay in Wuhan. Although the source of his 2019-nCoV infection is unknown, evidence of person-to-person transmission has been published. Through January 30, 2020, no secondary cases of 2019-nCoV related to this case have been identified, but monitoring of close contacts continues.19

    Detection of 2019-nCoV RNA in specimens from the upper respiratory tract with low Ct values on day 4 and day 7 of illness is suggestive of high viral loads and potential for transmissibility. It is notable that we also detected 2019-nCoV RNA in a stool specimen collected on day 7 of the patient’s illness. Although serum specimens from our case patient were repeatedly negative for 2019-nCoV, viral RNA has been detected in blood in severely ill patients in China.4 However, extrapulmonary detection of viral RNA does not necessarily mean that infectious virus is present, and the clinical significance of the detection of viral RNA outside the respiratory tract is unknown at this time.

    Currently, our understanding of the clinical spectrum of 2019-nCoV infection is very limited. Complications such as severe pneumonia, respiratory failure, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and cardiac injury, including fatal outcomes, have been reported in China.4,18,20 However, it is important to note that these cases were identified on the basis of their pneumonia diagnosis and thus may bias reporting toward more severe outcomes.

    Our case patient initially presented with mild cough and low-grade intermittent fevers, without evidence of pneumonia on chest radiography on day 4 of his illness, before having progression to pneumonia by illness day 9. These nonspecific signs and symptoms of mild illness early in the clinical course of 2019-nCoV infection may be indistinguishable clinically from many other common infectious diseases, particularly during the winter respiratory virus season. In addition, the timing of our case patient’s progression to pneumonia on day 9 of illness is consistent with later onset of dyspnea (at a median of 8 days from onset) reported in a recent publication.4 Although a decision to administer remdesivir for compassionate use was based on the case patient’s worsening clinical status, randomized controlled trials are needed to determine the safety and efficacy of remdesivir and any other investigational agents for treatment of patients with 2019-nCoV infection.

    We report the clinical features of the first reported patient with 2019-nCoV infection in the United States. Key aspects of this case included the decision made by the patient to seek medical attention after reading public health warnings about the outbreak; recognition of the patient’s recent travel history to Wuhan by local providers, with subsequent coordination among local, state, and federal public health officials; and identification of possible 2019-nCoV infection, which allowed for prompt isolation of the patient and subsequent laboratory confirmation of 2019-nCoV, as well as for admission of the patient for further evaluation and management. This case report highlights the importance of clinicians eliciting a recent history of travel or exposure to sick contacts in any patient presenting for medical care with acute illness symptoms, in order to ensure appropriate identification and prompt isolation of patients who may be at risk for 2019-nCoV infection and to help reduce further transmission. Finally, this report highlights the need to determine the full spectrum and natural history of clinical disease, pathogenesis, and duration of viral shedding associated with 2019-nCoV infection to inform clinical management and public health decision making.The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    This article was published on January 31, 2020, at NEJM.org.

    We thank the patient; the nurses and clinical staff who are providing care for the patient; staff at the local and state health departments; staff at the Washington State Department of Health Public Health Laboratories and at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Division of Viral Disease Laboratory; CDC staff at the Emergency Operations Center; and members of the 2019-nCoV response teams at the local, state, and national levels.Author Affiliations

    From the Epidemic Intelligence Service (M.L.H.), the National Center for Immunizations and Respiratory Diseases (A.C., L.F., A.P.), the Division of Viral Diseases (S.I.G., L.K., S.T., X.L., S. Lindstrom, M.A.P., W.C.W., H.M.B.), the Influenza Division (T.M.U.), and the Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections (S.K.P.), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta; and the Washington State Department of Health, Shoreline (M.L.H., C.D., S. Lindquist, K.H.L., J.W.), Snohomish Health District (H.B., C.S.), Providence Medical Group (K.E.), and Providence Regional Medical Center (S.W., A.T., G.D.), Everett, and Department of Medicine, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle (C.S.) — all in Washington.

    Address reprint requests to Ms. Holshue at the Washington State Department of Health Public Health Laboratories, 1610 NE 150th St., Shoreline, WA 98155, or at michelle.holshue@doh.wa.gov.

    A full list of the members of the Washington State 2019-nCoV Case Investigation Team is provided in the Supplementary Appendix, available at NEJM.org.

    ...
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...ry=main_nav_lg
    "We're all bozos on this bus"

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  3. Link to Post #262
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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    So when this unfolding situation started looking ominous, I could not help but recall the words of Bill's 'Anglo Saxon Mission' and how it does seem that albeit quite delayed, the dire warnings from 2010 seem to have been teleported along an extended timeline into 2020. "China will catch a cold". A corona virus is responsible for the common cold, but in the hands of the likes of Netanyahu and Bolton? A definitive weapon of mass destruction indeed.

    On the ground here - obtaining medical face masks consumed most of my day. I had some real estate business to attend in the Queen City area and as I headed South, I made numerous stops to obtain some medical masks that would assist my husband and I in our travel schedules. Stop one - Ft. Mitchell, KY CVS - all of the masks are gone. Upon inquiry, the staff said they were told to "pull them off the shelf". Stop#2, Costco - Florence, KY. All "sold out". Stop #3 - Walton Pharmacy, Walton KY - two boxes of five glorified dust masks left available, medical grade masks sent to Homeland Security. Stop #5, Williamstown, KY, rinky dink pharmacy - one box of medial grade masks on the shelf, sold individually at 1.25 each. Bought eight. Stop #6 - Dollar Store, Dry Ridge KY - sanding masks available, bought ten paks. Stop #7, Walmart, Dry Ridge Ky - staff told to pull all stock to send to Homeland Security.

    Got back to the farm - watched the live stream Youtube coverage of the White House declaring Coronavirus a US Health Emergency. This has never happened. We have never had a medical emergency.

    Planning on pulling my sister and mother in from the city and sequestering all necessary resources for at least a two month period.

    This is Kentucky, folks. Couldn't imagine what's going on on the coast.

    Be well.

    edit to add:

    my shopping adventure was one of concern as I attempted to order necessary supplies from Amazon yesterday. At least a two month delay on masks. Thank goodness I have all other medical supplies including sutures and lidocaine, penicillin jabs and necessaries.
    Last edited by AriG; 1st February 2020 at 00:22.
    “The World is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don’t do anything about it.”
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  5. Link to Post #263
    United States Avalon Member Ba-ba-Ra's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    In this video Joseph Farrell discusses the possible connection of the recent arrest of a Harvard professor for lying about his connections to a scientific research outfit in China to the outbreak of the Wuhan Coronavirus. Farrell also discusses the Canadian connection.

    I personally thought it was rather strange that the MSM barely reported the story.

    https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020...8751580246648/


    Blessed are the cracked, for they are the ones who let in the light!

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    Quote Posted by Ba-ba-Ra (here)
    In this video Joseph Farrell discusses the possible connection of the recent arrest of a Harvard professor for lying about his connections to a scientific research outfit in China to the outbreak of the Wuhan Coronavirus. Farrell also discusses the Canadian connection.

    I personally thought it was rather strange that the MSM barely reported the story.

    https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020...8751580246648/


    And we wonder how ancient myths got their foothold. Bats, vampires, energetic and otherwise. It is incredibly interesting that when the PTW create a cataclysm, they always blame it on some poor defenseless bat!

    Bat $ hite crazy, IMHO.

    And to all 262 amazing and enlightening posts on this thread, please accept this ONE BIG THANKS! I have been lurking from my work phone, but haven't been able to log in until I got home from travels. You all are amazing, intelligent beings who will no doubt save us all one day!
    “The World is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don’t do anything about it.”
    Albert Einstein

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    I was sent this link about Dosages and Treatments for Coronavirus Infections.

    Just passing it on.

    I am not qualified to pass judgement on this information.


    https://drsircus.com/general/dosages...us-infections/

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    just got this from me feed on twitter , concerning if true https://twitter.com/CelebratingAus/s...13382376562691

    "I just got off the phone to a mate who works in customs at sydney Airport..he said there is a HUGE influx of Chinese fleeing to
    🇦🇺
    Australia.. airlines are INCREASING their flights. Flights come here full & go back empty to pick up more"

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    Quote Posted by bluestflame (here)
    just got this from me feed on twitter , concerning if true https://twitter.com/CelebratingAus/s...13382376562691

    "I just got off the phone to a mate who works in customs at sydney Airport..he said there is a HUGE influx of Chinese fleeing to
    🇦🇺
    Australia.. airlines are INCREASING their flights. Flights come here full & go back empty to pick up more"
    Are the "authorities" testing these people? Increasing flights? Holy cow. Not the way to contain a pathogen.
    “The World is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don’t do anything about it.”
    Albert Einstein

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    a tweet too far...

    Zerohedge's twitter account suspended over releasing the personal information of a Wuhan scientist and accusing him of creating coronavirus as a bioweapon.

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...ist-it-falsely

    Twitter said the account was closed for violating "platform manipulation policy"...whatever that means.

    Wonder if this isn't more about the pro-Trump and/or amplification of conspiracy theories angle than the reason given by Twitter.
    Last edited by Ascension; 1st February 2020 at 01:13.

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    Quote Posted by Ron Mauer Sr (here)
    I was sent this link about Dosages and Treatments for Coronavirus Infections.

    Just passing it on.

    I am not qualified to pass judgement on this information.


    https://drsircus.com/general/dosages...us-infections/
    that is a lot of stuff to throw at a person who may have been compromised? I would think that the Magnesium/Selenium component would be most useful. Iodine, as a supplement for most thyroid sufferers is poison. Most Western cases of thyroid disease suffer from Hashimoto's Thyroiditis (as do I). Iodine is like throwing fuel on a fire for these sufferers.

    Simple solution? Eat Brazil nuts. 10 or so per day. Great combo of selenium/magnesium/potassium.
    “The World is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don’t do anything about it.”
    Albert Einstein

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    Buzzfeed is just an mainstream gatekeeper. Zerohedge has been running a series of articles which indicate that the virus was artificially created by the Chinese (probably in their Wuhan level 4 lab) and then accidentally released. This is very important and well worth researching particularly as the information is being suppressed by the mainstream. Zerohedge got a permanent ban from Twitter for discussion of the evidence and an Indian academic paper with the details!

    Also good to follow this academic on Twitter. He doesn’t believe the virus is artificial but he can see the Indian research clearly shows that something very weird is going on with this virus. The middle section of the virus looks like a cut and paste from the HIV virus and reports from Chinese hospitals even show that the virus responded to HIV medication!

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ated-bioweapon

    More background:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...rous-pathogens

    https://greatgameindia.com/coronavirus-bioweapon/

    For balance: Dr Eric Ding just posted this article which debunks the Indian academic study. I haven’t the expertise to evaluate:

    https://theprepared.com/blog/no-the-...ered-from-hiv/
    Last edited by Cognitive Dissident; 1st February 2020 at 04:03.

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    Quote Posted by AriG (here)
    Quote Posted by bluestflame (here)
    just got this from me feed on twitter , concerning if true https://twitter.com/CelebratingAus/s...13382376562691

    "I just got off the phone to a mate who works in customs at sydney Airport..he said there is a HUGE influx of Chinese fleeing to
    🇦🇺
    Australia.. airlines are INCREASING their flights. Flights come here full & go back empty to pick up more"
    Are the "authorities" testing these people? Increasing flights? Holy cow. Not the way to contain a pathogen.
    I’ve been staying informed as best I can because my son regularly uses public transport (trains, and our suburb is a busy transport hub where people catch buses from the end of the train line).

    Our state government here in Queensland just held crisis talks due to the lack of transparency of the federal government. Two Chinese nationals tested positive on the Gold Coast (many people travel between there and here in Brisbane daily), after arriving in Melbourne from Wuhan and taking a domestic flight from Melbourne to the Gold Coast. The first confirmed case became symptomatic during the flight and he stayed at a Gold Coast resort for 24 hours before being hospitalised (the second confirmed case travelled with him, along with others, seven IIRC). Our premier has been provided all the details about that domestic flight but held crisis talks because the federal government won’t give any information in the international flight. Why?

    The kids here just recently began the new school year after the Christmas holidays and the parents of three Queensland schools have received notices informing them that students from those schools have been isolated because they were in the same domestic flight as the infected cases. They wouldn’t confirm that those students attended school for the first two days and they haven’t closed the schools (remember the first case became symptomatic during flight). Pretty much nobody misses the first days of school and if they didn’t attend school then why not say so? And why inform the parents if they didn’t attend school? Two of those schools are in suburbs close to ours, the other is on the Gold Coast.

    The Federal government still hasn’t banned flights from China, this makes no sense. Neither the federal or state government is instilling confidence that they can contain the virus here in Australia, although at least the premier here is calling for banning the flights out of China. Looks like we’ll be seeing it here first hand in our neck of the woods soon. Hopefully we’ll get lucky, the environment here lately is the best we could hope for, we’ve had a lot of rain recently and it’s been humid every day for weeks, and there’s no shortage of sunshine for vitamin D (weather can be compared to Florida’s).

    My son is a healthy young man in his late teens and has been using the trains up until a couple of days ago, but after reading the following information I’m banning him until we are better informed of the current situation (Trevor Drew is the director of the CSRIO's Australian Animal Health Laboratory, spearheading vaccine efforts).

    The following is and excerpt from the article titled, “Coronavirus ‘deadlier than it looks’, virologist warns” -

    Professor Drew said early indications that the disease was killing less than 2 per cent of victims in China could be misleading ­because of the potential for it to evolve rapidly and gain ­potency. He spoke out as the first batch of a world-first Australian-grown virus arrived at a CSIRO lab outside Geelong, paving the way for a fast-tracked vaccine to enter preclinical trials within weeks.

    Professor Drew said it was ­better to think of the emergent Wuhan strain as a “cloud” of closely matched pathogens rather than a single virus. In a “high-host-density environment” such as heavily populated China, it could rapidly mutate and become more deadly. “You may well find that more virulent viruses emerge from that cloud,” he said.


    SOURCE
    Never give up on your silly, silly dreams.

    You mustn't be afraid to dream a little BIGGER, darling.

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    Quote Posted by Cognitive Dissident (here)
    Buzzfeed is just an mainstream gatekeeper. Zerohedge has been running a series of articles which indicate that the virus was artificially created by the Chinese (probably in their Wuhan level 4 lab) and then accidentally released. This is very important and well worth researching particularly as the information is being suppressed by the mainstream. Zerohedge got a permanent ban from Twitter for discussion of the evidence and an Indian academic paper with the details!

    Also good to follow this academic on Twitter. He doesn’t believe the virus is artificial but he can see the Indian research clearly shows that something very weird is going on with this virus. The middle section of the virus looks like a cut and paste from the HIV virus and reports from Chinese hospitals even show that the virus responded to HIV medication!

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ated-bioweapon

    More background:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...rous-pathogens

    https://greatgameindia.com/coronavirus-bioweapon/

    For balance: Dr Eric Ding just posted this article which debunks the Indian academic study. I haven’t the expertise to evaluate:

    https://theprepared.com/blog/no-the-...ered-from-hiv/

    More notes regarding the Indian academic study from Trevor Bedford: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1223337991168380928

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia


    https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

    BACKGROUND
    The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP.

    RESULTS
    Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9).


    “The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace.” New data suggests that #2019nCoV did not originate at the Wuhan seafood market. IDSA member Daniel Lucey, MD, FIDSA says the 1st human infections likely surfaced in Nov.

    https://sciencespeaksblog.org/2020/0...ed-hypothesis/



    A collection of research data on twitter:
    https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status...20657242333184
    Last edited by yuhui; 1st February 2020 at 06:34.

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    Quote The Federal government still hasn’t banned flights from China
    Update, published half an hour ago -

    Australians told not to travel to mainland China due to coronavirus threat, border restrictions tightened considerably

    Australia has upgraded its travel advice in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak to include all of mainland China to level four, "do not travel", Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced.

    The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) has advised Australians not to travel to China due to the "escalating threat" of the virus, while asking those who have returned from the country to self-isolate for 14 days.

    Mr Morrison said DFAT had recommended the implementation of additional border measures, which would deny entry to Australia for people who have left or transited through mainland China from today.

    Exceptions will be made for Australian citizens, permanent residents and their immediate family, as well as air crews who have been using appropriate personal protective equipment.

    "In addition to that, there'll be advanced screening and reception arrangements put into place at the major airports to facilitate identifying and providing this information and ensuring the appropriate precautions are being put in place," Mr Morrision said.

    Full article.

    Yessss, that’s a relief.
    Never give up on your silly, silly dreams.

    You mustn't be afraid to dream a little BIGGER, darling.

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    Quote Posted by yuhui (here)
    With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9).
    This is the most important number to track.

    Here's one site where the stats are updated in real time:
    About 12 hours ago, this showed the jump to nearly 12,000 cases hours before the mainstream media picked it up and reported it.

    But when the number of cases jumped, they also amended their R0 figure. It had earlier been 2 point something low. (I never took a screenshot.) Then they jumped it to 3-4.

    This is because of the same new study that Chris Martenson cited in his latest video (see post #257), mathematically predicting impossible global infection numbers and the logical necessity for what Mike Adams calls "a shutdown of society".



    Here's what their footnotes say.

    This is crucial. It's the most important number to follow.


    ~~~
    How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (R0)

    The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (R0, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people who will catch the disease from a single infected person.

    A more recent study is indicating an R0 as high as 4.08.[22]. This value substantially exceeds WHO's estimate (made on Jan. 23) of between 1.4 and 2.5[13], and is also higher than recent estimates between 3.6 and 4.0 and between 2.24 to 3.58 [23]. Preliminary studies had estimated R0 to be between 1.5 and 3.5 [5][6][7]

    Based on these numbers, on average every case of the Novel Coronavirus would create 3 to 4 new cases.

    An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.

    For comparison, the R0 for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

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  31. Link to Post #276
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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    More about Chris Martenson's numbers. An R0 of 4 is crazy-serious (3 is serious enough), but it's not quite as apocalyptic as Mortenson's spreadsheet numbers show. I'll see if I can explain why he got it wrong.

    That's not to dismiss the importance of this very high R0. But his math isn't quite right.

    What follows here is for science project geeks. But most of you may be able to get the picture easily.

    Here's what he showed in his video:



    That enormous number of total infections after 20 days at R0=4 is 366 billion. (Yes, you read that right. )

    But here's why that's not the correct figure, if we assume that Martenson equated "cycles" to days. (And that term he used suggests he may be aware of this, but just did a kind of quick back-of-an-envelope calculation to show the potential severity.)

    He basically assumes that someone who's infected, and therefore infectious, will spread it all to others all within 24 hours, or at least all at once. That's why the growth is geometric (parabolically near-vertical). Of course, that near-instant transmission won't necessarily happen.

    It is more likely that someone who's infected, but doesn't know it, will spread it around quickly as they go about their normal life in cities, buses and shopping malls. (And within their friends and family, too.) But one can't predict that will happen immediately.

    Any cross-infection will be spread over a 14 day incubation period before the unfortunate person who's infected realizes they're sick.

    That model still produces the same numbers over time, but over a longer time period. So it needs to be adjusted. The 14 day incubation period is a kind of buffer.

    How it may really work is that if an infectious person is going to spread it to 4 other people, the 1st might be on Day 2, the 2nd on Day 5, the 3rd on Day 8, and the 4th on Day 12. Or any permutation of those. So the equation needs to take all that into account.

    I'll see if I can generate the more probable numbers, using days rather than "cycles", factoring in the likely delayed transmission to others.
    Last edited by Bill Ryan; 1st February 2020 at 12:14.

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    Never give up on your silly, silly dreams.

    You mustn't be afraid to dream a little BIGGER, darling.

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    Yes. There's an inspired line in the wonderful 1984 film Starman. The Starman, (Jeff Bridges, a visiting alien being) explains — referring to the human race:
    Shall I tell you what I find beautiful about you? You are at your very best when things are worst.
    Last edited by Bill Ryan; 1st February 2020 at 13:05.

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    As of a few minutes ago, thousands of Hong Kong doctors, nurses and hospital employees have voted for a strike which could begin as early as Monday, to press the government to close all borders with mainland China.
    It seems so obvious that border closure has to happen. All of China has to be placed in quarantine.

    Most governments, maybe concerned about economic or social impact, have been way too slow to do this.

    It may even be too late now. But it'd have been far wiser to take strong action immediately and then relax it all a little later if the decisive action proved to have been unnecessary. The problem we have now: we can't go back in time and stop incoming flights 10 days ago.

    The first hub of spread is China. But the second is the US. The US authorities are being irresponsible, and maybe criminal. The major airlines, one by one, are taking their own action, while the US government does little or nothing.

    Even Alex Jones is critical of Trump for not acting decisively. As a pragmatic businessman who's managed risk all his life, he should know exactly what to do. It's hard to understand: the implication is either another agenda, and/or that he's not able to take action because he's not permitted to.
    Last edited by Bill Ryan; 1st February 2020 at 13:28.

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    Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

    This informed caller to the Infowars War Room ("David", a Navy veteran, who then worked in the DIA in counter-terrorism), while being intelligent and measured, presents a persuasive case that this may indeed be a bioweapon.

    He argues that the Chinese government knows exactly what this is, have done so from the start, knows it's airborne (which is why they've been spraying the empty streets) — and are 'scared to death'.

    It checks all the criteria. And even if it's not, it may as well be a bioweapon.

    Ignore the silly goofiness at the start. The call begins at 2:03. It's worth listening to.

    Source: https://vod-api.infowars.com/embed/5...c864001ef66beb
    Last edited by Bill Ryan; 1st February 2020 at 14:15.

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