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Thread: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

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    Germany Avalon Member Michi's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    I tried a quick Google search (in German), looking for "economical forecast covid 19" (wirtschaftsprognose covid 19) and NOTHING comes up. Only talks about the danger of covid 19.
    To me this proofs a diversion to whats actually in the making.
    I would like to have an answer to my question as to the economical forecast because of the global governmental restrictive actions.
    What can one "expect" in the near future and for 2020?
    Will there be a huge inflation or will the Euros become worthless all of a sudden?
    Will most companies lay off their workers?
    And finally, what would be ones own backup plan.
    Last edited by Michi; 16th March 2020 at 18:03. Reason: proper English :)
    "The greatest good you can do for another is not just share your riches, but to reveal to him his own."
    -- Benjamin Disraeli

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by Michi (here)
    I tried a quick Google search (in German), looking for "economical forecast covid 19" (wirtschaftsprognose covid 19) and NOTHING comes up. Only talks about the danger of covid 19.
    To me this proofs a diversion to whats actually in the making.
    I would like to have an answer to my question as to the economical forecast because of the global governmental restrictive actions.
    What can one "expect" in the near future and for 2020?
    Will there be a huge inflation or will the Euros become worthless all of a sudden?
    Will most companies lay off their workers?
    And finally, what would be ones own backup plan.
    I googled "Economy Forecast Covid-19" and came up with the following economic forecast developed by Standard & Poor Global factoring in Covid-19:

    Quote Economic Research: COVID-19 Macroeconomic Update: The Global Recession Is Here And Now
    Global Chief Economist: Paul F Gruenwald
    Secondary Contacts: Beth Ann Bovino, Sylvain Broyer, Tatiana Lysenko, Shaun Roache
    Sector Economic Research
    Topic Coronavirus Impact

    View Analyst Contact Information

    Key Takeaways
    • As the coronavirus pandemic escalates and growth heads sharply lower against a backdrop of volatile markets and growing credit stress, we now forecast a global recession this year, with 2020 GDP rising just 1.0%-1.5%. The risks remain firmly on the downside.
    • The initial data from China suggests that its economy was hit far harder than projected, though a tentative stabilization has begun. Europe and the U.S. are following a similar path, as increasing restrictions on person-to-person contacts presage a demand collapse that will take activity sharply lower in the second quarter before a recovery begins later in the year.
    • Central banks have swung into action and are undertaking some combination of sharply reduced policy rates, resumed assets purchase and liquidity injections. Fiscal authorities have generally lagged but have begun to loosen the purse strings; we suspect that larger and more targeted spending to the most affected groups is forthcoming.

    Since our last update, which was on March 3, the spread of the coronavirus has accelerated, and its economic effect has worsened sharply. Economic data remains scarce, but the long-awaited initial figures from China for January and February were much worse than feared. The spread of the virus, which the World Health Organization declared to be a pandemic on March 11, appears to be stabilizing in much of Asia. However, the increasing restrictions on person-to-person contact in Europe and the U.S. have sent markets reeling as risk-aversion rises and views on economic activity, earnings, and credit quality deteriorate sharply. As a result, we now forecast a global recession this year, with annual GDP rising 1%-1.5%.

    China's first macroeconomic data capturing the effects of COVID-19 was much worse than expected. Industrial production in China fell a staggering 12.3% in January-February compared with the same period last year, four times the consensus forecast decline. Moreover, while assumptions around the peak timing of the virus turned out to be broadly valid, the projections around the path of the rebound now look optimistic. Risks of secondary infections are slowing the lifting of person-to-person restrictions, meaning the recovery is likely to be more drawn out than previously thought.

    Restrictions on movement in Europe and the U.S. are putting a severe dent in economic activity. COVID-19 is affecting all aspects of life. Travel is being curtailed, with passenger counts down sharply. Schools are being closed. Mass gatherings such as sports events and theater are being postponed, with knock-on effects on related hospitality industries (see chart). Offices and factories are being shuttered as companies move to remote work. And, most recently, cities and parts of countries are in or moving toward lockdowns, with all but basic societal functions on hold.



    Financial markets have gone into freefall, and volatility has spiked to levels last seen during the global financial crisis. Equities suffered double-digit percent losses the week of March 9 as markets began to factor in the consequences of COVID-19 on growth, earnings, and credit. Day-to-day fluctuations sent the closely watched VIX measure of volatility to its highest level since the global financial crisis. Moreover, credit spreads were their widest in more than a decade, and that wasn't limited to speculative grade. Liquidity stress spread as firms and households shed risk and sought high-quality, liquid assets. All of this was made worse by the collapse in global oil prices, with prices falling below $30 per barrel as major producers failed to agree on supply cuts to support the market.

    Central banks have responded with increasingly aggressive actions. In an extraordinary meeting on Sunday, March 15, the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate to effectively zero. It also moved to ensure financial-system liquidity, increasing its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and expanded repo operations. The Fed and five other central banks announced an agreement to ensure dollar liquidity through the use of swap lines. Central banks in the U.K., Canada, and New Zealand cut policy rates in recent days as well, and the European Central Bank announced additional asset purchases and more long-term financing operations (but no policy rate cut).

    As a result, we now forecast a global recession in 2020, with global GDP rising just 1.0%-1.5% in the full year.
    • China. Although the health situation there has stabilized, much of the economic damage has already been done. We now project growth of 2.7%-3.2% for 2020, with a flat second quarter and a recovery starting in the second half. Chinese authorities don't appear to be planning a big fiscal stimulus, though targeting spending will continue, and the People's Bank of China will intervene to keep liquidity flowing.
    • Eurozone. The virus continues to spread, and an increasing portion of the Eurozone population remains at or near lockdown. Tourism and investment have been the hardest-hit areas so far. We now expect the eurozone economy to contract 0.5%-1.0% this year. COVID-19 will affect first-quarter data (when we expect contraction) somewhat, but we believe the more significant hit will be in the second quarter, with a modest recovery to follow. The European Central Bank seems unlikely to lower policy rates much, but it will use cheap long-term refinancing operations (LTROs) and targeted LTROs to smooth the operation of the financial sector. We also expect stepped-up EU-level fiscal efforts to support the hardest-hit firms and populations.
    • U.S. The impact of COVID-19 in the U.S. has escalated rapidly, with restrictions following Europe with a shortening lag. The sectoral hits should be similar, with the key addition of the oil and gas sector, given the plunge in global prices. Owing to the strong start to the year and the lag in many key metrics, it looks like the U.S. will post marginally negative growth in the first quarter, with the big hit coming in the second quarter (a seasonally adjusted, annualized contraction of about 6%) before recovery begins in the second half of the year. The Fed has already acted, and its intentions are clear. We expect short-term, targeted fiscal stimulus at the federal level soon.


    • Emerging markets (EMs) are a mixed bag, and how hard they will be hit will largely reflect capital flow and commodity dependency. EMs with external imbalances--running current account deficits financed by portfolio flows (such as Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa)--are especially at risk, as are those with a high stock of external debt (for example, Turkey) and oil exporters (including Gulf countries, Russia, and Colombia). That said, oil importers--including most of EM Asia--should benefit.

    The risks to our revised baseline remain firmly on the downside. There are several things to consider:
    • As the early data from China has demonstrated, growing restrictions on person-to-person contact will affect economic activity. There are no empirical rules to estimate how this social distancing could affect key economic variables.
    • While monetary policymakers continue to ramp up their actions, financial conditions continue to tighten for most market participants. Moving policy variables with indirect effects on outcome might need to be replaced by more direct measures.
    • We now have China as a model for how the virus' spread could stabilize and society could begin to return to normal. As China has shown, restrictions could be lifted more slowly than originally thought as public health concerns persist.
    • It is difficult to measure how much output will be permanently lost as a result of COVID-19. While the focus now is rightly on containing the virus and measuring its downside effects, the strength of the eventual recovery will depend crucially on how much output can be replaced.

    We will continue to monitor developments and update our forecasts as necessary.

    Related Research
    • COVID-19 Credit Update: The Sudden Economic Stop Will Bring Intense Credit Pressure, March 17, 2020

    . . .

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    Avalon Member norman's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    The Great Economic Transition Is Now Upon Us - Bob Kudla



    .................................................. my first language is TYPO..............................................

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    So, there was a one day stock market crash, er "correction" on March 9th that caused trading to be stopped to put on the brakes. Some highfalutin shenanigans transpired, occult symbols were flashed, perhaps an infant was sacrificed and the organs eaten raw, and a few phone calls later, we are informed that the hole in the bottom of the boat was plugged with 1.5 trillion dollars (if I have that correctly), and the next day, trading resumes relatively normally. (after which it has been tumbling)

    For posterity's sake, if nothing else, can someone explain, in simple terms, where exactly did the (1.5?) trillion come from (taxpayers pockets, future taxpayer's pockets, or just "printed" out of nowhere (gov loan from "Fed" international banks that devalues all US currency?) And, where did it go? (I didn't receive a check, did you?) Do they literally just give it to the corporations that are tanking the worst? Do they buy back the stock that was dumped? (I told you this is not my bailiwick. The only reason I never failed Econ 101 is because I never took it.)
    Last edited by Dennis Leahy; 19th March 2020 at 20:03. Reason: date corrected


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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Amazingly Dennis, looks like they’re actually throwing a lifeline to Main Street this go around as well. I’m shocked to see it, but it really is the right move. Talk about a brilliant political move, Trump will be able to whack Biden and the dems upside the head with a page straight out of Andrew Yang’s hand book.

    I think this might just seal the deal, can you say four more years? That’s Populism at its finest, regardless of motive.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/futuris...ze-economy/amp

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by Gracy May (here)
    Amazingly Dennis, looks like they’re actually throwing a lifeline to Main Street this go around as well. I’m shocked to see it, but it really is the right move. Talk about a brilliant political move, Trump will be able to whack Biden and the dems upside the head with a page straight out of Andrew Yang’s hand book.

    I think this might just seal the deal, can you say four more years? That’s Populism at its finest, regardless of motive.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/futuris...ze-economy/amp
    Ha! The Democrats are putting a demented old anti-citizen, anti-environment, pro-war, pro-corporate Republican up against Trump. I don't think Trump needs to do anything, except keep breathing, to win. I think Caitlin Johnstone is correct - the Dems aren't even trying to win (like Big Time wrestling) their main task is to destroy any remnants of "the Left" (anti-war and anti- governance-by-corporation, pro-citizen, pro-environment, you know the actual, real "Left.")

    Half a trillion sounds like a lot of money... until you divide it by 275,000,000 adults. What are you going to do with yours? I'm thinking Beverly Hills mansion with a ceee-ment pond. Or, maybe a mortgage payment and a few rolls of toilet paper.

    I remember the check Dubya Bush sent me for $600. I think the money came from Iraqi oilfields.


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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    The flow of money is important. It's as important as new money creation. One thing a usury system of money lending and creating cannot tolerate is stagnation.
    The genius consistently stands out from the masses in that he unconsciously anticipates truths of which the population as a whole only later becomes conscious! Speech-circa 1937

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by Dennis Leahy (here)
    So, there was a one day stock market crash, er "correction" on March 9th that caused trading to be stopped to put on the brakes. Some highfalutin shenanigans transpired, occult symbols were flashed, perhaps an infant was sacrificed and the organs eaten raw, and a few phone calls later, we are informed that the hole in the bottom of the boat was plugged with 1.5 trillion dollars (if I have that correctly), and the next day, trading resumes relatively normally. (after which it has been tumbling)

    For posterity's sake, if nothing else, can someone explain, in simple terms, where exactly did the (1.5?) trillion come from (taxpayers pockets, future taxpayer's pockets, or just "printed" out of nowhere (gov loan from "Fed" international banks that devalues all US currency?) And, where did it go? (I didn't receive a check, did you?) Do they literally just give it to the corporations that are tanking the worst? Do they buy back the stock that was dumped? (I told you this is not my bailiwick. The only reason I never failed Econ 101 is because I never took it.)

    Will have a bash at this.

    So there is a private banking consortium in the USA owned by a collection of mostly foreign institutions called bizarrely the 'Federal Reserve'. People unquestioningly accept pretty much whatever this group chooses to do.

    So what they did was create a bit of virtual paper saying that the US tax payer owes them, say half a trillion. The balancing side of that transaction is that the Fed types the number - half a trillion - into a computer, and nominal cash is created.

    the above process has created an asset on the balance sheet, which is the interest bearing debt they now hold over the taxpayer, and a credit, to balance it, which is basically cash income for the Fed, the creation of which is not subject to tax.

    The Fed then takes this cash and goes to the markets to buy assets with it. The asset of choice is government treasuries, which are more of the same bits of paper that the fed has created just before, but this time the Fed is purchasing these contracts on the open market from other financial institutions.

    The effect of this is that the various financial institutions, who have just enjoyed a healthy gain on the value of the treasury bonds get to swap them for cash. Cue big party, yachts, and a boom in collectable wines, antique ferraris, and ming china.

    A further effect is that the Fed has just , by typing numbers onto a screen, created a double hit of interest bearing debt on its own books, that is paid direct to the Fed by the Federal government from tax revenue( because they do not allow the Federal government to type any 'money creating' numbers onto any computers.

    The Fed, blessed with a huge new income stream, shares the love around to its international owners, and more yachts and ming vases are purchased.

    There are those who say that this is the only way to stabilise markets when dealing with this kind of uncertainty. I say it is the worst imaginable way.

    The net effect of all this is that the US tax payer, via the Federal Gov, has taken out a huge mortgage, that it has to pay off, but it got nothing for it, because all the money ended up in the hands of the billionnaire class.

    cue soap theme music
    Last edited by Baby Steps; 19th March 2020 at 22:15.
    we have subcontracted the business of healing people to Companies who profit from sickness.

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    The strategy to oppose trump has clearly not been a political one for a couple of years, just look at the tethered goats the opposition have been putting out at night.

    In politics you put your best generals at the front and hide the canon fodder.

    In war you put your canon fodder at the front and hide your best generals.

    This is war.

    but this isn't the thread for that.
    .................................................. my first language is TYPO..............................................

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by Dennis Leahy (here)
    I don't think Trump needs to do anything, except keep breathing, to win.
    and I think you made a think brilliantly wise expressing the situation on this phrase

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by Dennis Leahy (here)
    Half a trillion sounds like a lot of money... until you divide it by 275,000,000 adults. What are you going to do with yours? I'm thinking Beverly Hills mansion with a ceee-ment pond. Or, maybe a mortgage payment and a few rolls of toilet paper.

    I remember the check Dubya Bush sent me for $600. I think the money came from Iraqi oilfields.
    What would you have a gubmint do then Dennis? What if this one or two time payment per U.S. adult of $1,000 - $1,500 or so per month turns out to be ongoing, until things even out? That's huge in very real every day ways!

    Obviously people like Steve Mnuchin don't give a flying s**t about the average person, and this would only be a purely mathematical x's and o's decision to try and stave off widespred economic ruin, what exactly would you not support about the Fed printing digital money out of the ethers for Main Street, alongside the usual suspects for a change?

    Now I'm not saying there aren't higher agendas afloat like just after 9/11, but for say the average restaurant worker suddenly tossed out to the lions, with the manager and owner soon to follow, what exactly would a President Leahy do in this circumstance that would make such a move look dour in comparison?

    With the given resources at his disposal?
    Last edited by Gracy May; 20th March 2020 at 03:20.

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by Gracy May (here)
    Quote Posted by Dennis Leahy (here)
    Half a trillion sounds like a lot of money... until you divide it by 275,000,000 adults. What are you going to do with yours? I'm thinking Beverly Hills mansion with a ceee-ment pond. Or, maybe a mortgage payment and a few rolls of toilet paper.

    I remember the check Dubya Bush sent me for $600. I think the money came from Iraqi oilfields.
    What would you have a gubmint do then Dennis? What if this one or two time payment per U.S. adult of $1,000 - $1,500 or so per month turns out to be ongoing, until things even out? That's huge in very real every day ways!

    Obviously people like Steve Mnuchin don't give a flying s**t about the average person, and this would only be a purely mathematical x's and o's decision to try and stave off widespred economic ruin, what exactly would you not support about the Fed printing digital money out of the ethers for Main Street, alongside the usual suspects for a change?

    Now I'm not saying there aren't higher agendas afloat like just after 9/11, but for say the average restaurant worker suddenly tossed out to the lions, with the manager and owner soon to follow, what exactly would a President Leahy do in this circumstance that would make such a move look dour in comparison?

    With the given resources at his disposal?
    Wow, fun exercise. I'd hit each of the top 5 individual banks represented in the Federal reserve for their share of 250 trillion. (This assumes the rules of the game say the international bankers get to retain control over money.) That would be their buy-in to be allowed to continue their scam into the future.

    (scratch pad)
    1. Bank of America - $1,082B or about 20% --> 29% = $72.5T
    2. JP Morgan - $1013B or about 20% --> 28% = $70T
    3. Citigroup - $706B or about 15% --> 21% = $52.5T
    4. Wachovia - $472B or about 8% --> 11% = $27.5T
    5. Wells Fargo - $403B or about 8%--> 10% = $25T

    Then distribute the whole $250T to (approx) 250,000,000 adults, which would be $1M each. That, and the bankers would need to hold an additional equal amount "off the table" for 1 year, and bring it back on the table gradually over 10 years, to keep the buying power of the active money about as it is now. That would be everyone's start over money, a million per adult (approximately), or maybe divide it by 327,000,000 instead, and every citizen, baby through old fart, would get $765,000.

    Since the bankers (or someone who smells a lot like them) are ruining the existing (sick, pyramidal) economy, this might be enough for everyone to start over, without suffering hardship. (Sadly, leaving the bankers in control of money means we agreed to kick the can down the road, and would remain at their mercy.)

    (Other countries would work their own deal out with their central bankers.)

    You know, the bankers would probably go for it, to continue being the central banks. If they don't, then default on all debt to the Federal Reserve banks, and resume constitutional money printing and management, with the US Treasury printing the same $250T starting pile, and distribute it the same way. If the bankers try anything, declare war on them, imprison them all, and take everything from them except a toothbrush. This would actually be preferable, the government would print the paper /digital entries. The FED banks don't have the collateral or gold to back the paper that we've been using for the last 50 years, so why should we have to? We'd have USA-minted dollars, backed by Good Faith.

    {edit} My post is crap, and doesn't advance this thread's topic or intent. I'll edit it down to one line, "Yes, Gracy May, as long as the US government is advancing the Fed agenda and trillions of more debt will be created, the more that goes into citizens pockets the better, but it is a sneeze in a hurricane, kicking the can down the road to deal with the issues a few weeks later, and several orders of magnitude too little to undo the damage to our ongoing economy as individuals.
    Last edited by Dennis Leahy; 20th March 2020 at 16:27.


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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Last edited by Soda; 20th March 2020 at 09:06. Reason: additional info

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Here's a good interview with Jim Rickards, who's holed up at his solar-powered family farm. He talks about a possible Kurt Vonnegut ICE-9 scenario in the financial markets: If you close the stock market, you'll have to close all markets eventually, as people try every which way to get their money.


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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    I received the following synopsis of a financial forecast from a financial forecasting company:

    What Lies Ahead
    So here is the executive summary… our best guess about what lies ahead:

    The world of getting and spending is shutting down. Without revenue, neither businesses, households, nor the government will be able to pay their bills.

    Stocks will rise (“a dead cat bounce”, the old timers call it) on all the “bailout” news, and then give up another 50% of their value.

    Business will default on its $16-trillion-debt pile. Millions of people will lose their jobs. The Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, says that upwards of 20% of the workforce could be unemployed.

    The feds will print money by the trillions to rescue the situation. Spending will rise. But lower output… and more currency in circulation… will raise prices.

    In the summer, the virus will slow down. Then, the economy will begin to recover. But people all over the world will begin to mistrust the dollar (and other “paper” currencies). Prices will rise as real growth is suppressed by inflation fears.

    Most likely, the virus will return in the autumn, though there’s no way to know how bad it will be. But at some point, there won’t be enough “cash” to keep up with the rising contempt for it.

    ATMs will run out. The economy – still fragile, with interest rates below inflation – will need more bailouts and more helicopter money to keep going.

    Then, the feds will face a terrible choice. Printing more money may bring a hyperinflation, like Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, or Venezuela.

    But not printing will risk a deep depression… a “throw out all the bums” shock in the next election… or even a revolution.

    What Paul Volcker will stand up and bring a halt to the money-printing? What Ronald Reagan will back him up? What Horatio will stand at the bridge and say “enough?”

    The feds will make their choice… the same choice made by von Havenstein in Germany and Gono in Zimbabwe. They will print. Stocks will soar as people “rotate” out of bonds.

    The bond market will collapse. Debts will be wiped out by inflation. So will debt-based credits.

    Scenes of financial depravity, economic debauchery, and orgies of social degradation, violence and chaos – now unimaginable – will flash across every big screen in America.

    That is, of course, a future. The future is something we wait to see.

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Related, from 2011: "Revealed – the capitalist network that runs the world"

    Quote AS PROTESTS against financial power sweep the world this week, science may have confirmed the protesters’ worst fears. An analysis of the relationships between 43,000 transnational corporations has identified a relatively small group of companies, mainly banks, with disproportionate power over the global economy.

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    United States Avalon Member Dennis Leahy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by ralfy (here)
    Related, from 2011: "Revealed – the capitalist network that runs the world"

    Quote AS PROTESTS against financial power sweep the world this week, science may have confirmed the protesters’ worst fears. An analysis of the relationships between 43,000 transnational corporations has identified a relatively small group of companies, mainly banks, with disproportionate power over the global economy.
    Yes, this shows the brilliant representation of what I call the Global Corporate Network. Many people seem to think that the "elite" are completely hidden, but this is a fingerprint. Every elite is represented on the 3-D chart, and critically, it shows the interconnectedness of the corporations - so at the highest levels, these corporations don't really compete but rather cooperate with one another. You won't find a dot on the chart representing nefarious organizations and secret societies, but the individuals in those organizations and societies are all represented by the corporations they own, control, have major shares in, or sit on the boards.



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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    The forces of deflation are going to overwhelm forces of inflation, even with all of the money printing. Money has to be loaned into existence in a debt based system and when people aren't working, how's that supposed to happen. Plus, the smallest hint of a Depression and the banks will tighten regardless of how low the fed drops interest rates.

    People are rushing out of the stock market and into American dollars. Doesn't mean the dollar is well managed or particularly strong. It just means that it's the leper with the most fingers, the tallest midget in the room.

    And contrary to those who are under the impression that the dollar has no backing since it went off the gold standard. Wrong-o. It's backed by guns and has a proven history of beating up countries that step out of line.

    That's pretty much why the dollar remains the reserve currency. It was about to be challenged by China and rather shortly thereafter China had a little accident bio-politics wise.

    Anyway, Rickards is incorrect. Cash is king and gold has **** the bed. It isn't a safe haven anymore.

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    Canada Avalon Member TomKat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by AutumnW (here)
    The forces of deflation are going to overwhelm forces of inflation, even with all of the money printing. Money has to be loaned into existence in a debt based system and when people aren't working, how's that supposed to happen. Plus, the smallest hint of a Depression and the banks will tighten regardless of how low the fed drops interest rates.
    Yes, the banks have been fighting deflation for over a decade by printing more money, and doing more of that will at best blow some more bubbles.

    Quote Posted by AutumnW (here)
    Anyway, Rickards is incorrect. Cash is king and gold has **** the bed. It isn't a safe haven anymore.
    Gold is holding pretty steady in the face of paper contract sell-offs by Wall St gamblers raising cash to cover their margin calls. This happened after 2008, followed by a serious bull run in gold price. Silver has really tanked, but that's controlled, like gold, from the futures market (paper contracts). Physical silver is almost unobtainable, and you have to pay a high premium to get it because the low price doesn't jibe with the high demand.
    Last edited by TomKat; 21st March 2020 at 21:04.

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    United States Avalon Member Dennis Leahy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Yes, I poked my nose into the Kitko website to see what 1oz silver coins currently are going for. Silver was down around $12/oz yesterday, and in the past when i have looked, to buy a coin you had to pay a couple of dollars over the "spot" price. Like when silver was around $16/oz, a one ounce coin was about $18 or maybe $19.

    Now, you have to pay between $5 and $6 on top of the spot price. A huge markup.

    However, if you want to sell silver coins to them, they will buy all you have and pay you $12.50 per 1 oz coin. They also mentioned that demand has outstripped inventory, but I didn't pay attention to how long you'd have to wait to actually get the coins. They also posted that the Canadian mint that produces the desired 'maple leaf' coins was currently shut down.


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