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Thread: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

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    United States Avalon Member Dennis Leahy's Avatar
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    Default Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    I popped into this sub-forum and the forum software notified me that there has not been a post in this sub-forum in the past 60 days - a long time in a supposedly precarious economy.

    We know that the mainstream economic prognosticators and trend watchers are owned and controlled by the corporate media, a subset of the Global Corporate Network, so we know the mainstream talking heads are not to be believed. Jon Stewart, to his credit, ambushed and disemboweled a particularly egregious syndicate lapdog, Jim Cramer, for shepherding people to buy Bear Stearns just before they collapsed. But, most of the compromised, corporately entangled talking heads just sell whatever their bosses tell them to, and have not been called out.

    Formerly active member and admin, Paul, and physically recovering member and admin, Hervé, used to keep this topic current, but are not here to do this now.

    Can someone step in and fill the shoes (I sure can't.)

    I must say that I would not personally be interested in having someone just post links to their blog, and really, it would be good if the person/persons that step up to fill this role are truly independent and can provide some analysis and not just links to Gerald Celente or whoever's videos. Buying a can of beans or paying a mortgage payment affect pretty much all of us, so - boring as the topic can be - it's kinda important.


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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    I am in no way applying for the task you propose Dennis - but I found this to be an interesting article. I suspect most of the gigantic banks are in trouble for the same thing and that these "resignations" prior to today's stock market tumble (which may continue) just means they got their money out just in time to "retire" somewhere underground per se.
    Wells Fargo Officials Resign Days Before They Were Set To Testify Before Congress
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/busin...ign/index.html

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    United States Avalon Member Dennis Leahy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Soda, I didn't mean to set the bar too high, I was just hoping to entice the members that are savvy in economic/financial affairs to share their knowledge. I have never spent much time researching these issues, but I'm sure that for some members, it's their bailiwick. I think the article you added, and your analysis, is spot on for this thread (and very interesting - those bastards! hahaha)

    Of course, today (as you mention) just happens to be explosive (implosive?) in the stock market, so I'll include an article link, and a pull quote from it:

    Today, the stock market took its biggest fall since 2008, and they STOPPED TRADING so it wouldn't go even further.
    "Stocks took their worst one-day beating on Wall Street since the global financial crisis of 2008 as a collapse in oil prices Monday combined with mounting alarm over what the coronavirus could do to the world economy.

    The staggering losses, including a 7.8% tumble in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, immediately raised fears that a recession might be on the way in the U.S. and that the record-breaking 11-year bull market on Wall Street may be coming to an abrupt end in a way no one even imagined just a few months ago.

    The drop was so sharp that it triggered the first automatic halt in trading in more than two decades. European stock indexes likewise registered their heaviest losses since the darkest days of the 2008 meltdown and are now in a bear market."

    I love that line, "in a way no one even imagined just a few months ago." Yet some Econ 101 dumbass like me read numerous credible people predicting it.

    Here's today's article, if anyone wants to scan it for yourself: https://www.nbcboston.com/news/business/stocks-sink-after-oil-prices-plunge-amid-virus-fears/2087728/


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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    justntime2learn just posted this Chris Martenson video in the main corona virus thread, and I think it's a good fit here too.



    I just listened to it, but would have a hard time putting together a cogent synopsis. It is analysis of the big picture of global economics (focused mostly on the Federal Reserve banking system) and Chris notes that the biggest bubble was caused by the way banks' credit policy changed in 1971. He and John Rubino also speak about real/hard assets as the only safe spot, as the bond market (which had always been the go-to when the stock market was wonky) are not safe either - and nor is FDIC insured "money" deposited in a bank. Another big takeaway is that the government only has financial tools, and financial tools cannot fix the problems that are not financial (which the corona virus fallout creates.)


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    United States Avalon Member Dennis Leahy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Silver and gold "spot" price graphs:

    (snagged from kitco.com)


    silver, 1 year




    gold, 2020


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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    thanks Dennis, you seem to be doing a good job hahaha

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Ray Dalio (head of Bridgewater hedgefund) predicted last August that there was 40% chance of recession in 2020. In November, he lowered that to 25%.

    There are certain elements of the deep state hierarchy who are intent on crashing the economy before the next election cycle to make Trump unelectable. The whole Coronavirus scaremongering and hype is little more than a form of economic warfare to push things towards this end. But despite what we hear in the news, a lot of the multinationals are actually gearing up for production, especially those involved in the hard sciences. The sector of engineering is currently going through rapid expansion which means productive capital is going to exponentially grow over the coming years, which imo, will prevent the speculative bubbles from fully collapsing. Trump will be re-elected later this year because the markets will re-stabilise after the Coronavirus hype has been and gone.

    Anyway, Ray Dalios latest article on how Coronavirus will affect the markets in 2020:

    =============
    My Thoughts About the Coronavirus

    I will repeat my overarching perspective, which is that I don’t like to take bets on things that I don’t feel I have a big edge on, I don’t like to make any one bet really big, and I’d rather seek how to neutralize myself against big unknowns than how to bet on them. That applies to the coronavirus. Still, there’s no getting around having to figure out what this situation is likely to mean and how we should deal with it, so here are my thoughts for you to take or leave. In reading them please realize that I’m a “dumb ****” when it comes to viruses, though I do get to triangulate with some of the world’s best experts. So, for the little that they’re worth, here are my thoughts.

    Three Perspectives

    As I see it there are three different things going on that are related yet are very different and shouldn’t be confused: 1) the virus, 2) the economic impact of reactions to the virus, and 3) the market action. They all will be affected by highly emotional reactions. Individually and together they lend themselves to a giant whipsaw with big mispricings, with the off chance that it will trigger the downturn that I have been worried would happen with both the big wealth/political gap and the end of the big debt cycle (when debts are high and central banks are impotent in trying to stimulate).

    1) The Virus

    The virus itself will almost certainly a) come and go and b) have a big emotional impact, which will most likely produce a big whipsaw. It will most likely lead to an uncontained global health crisis that could have high human and economic costs, though how it is handled and what the consequences will be will vary a lot by location (which will also affect how their markets behave). Containing the virus (i.e., minimizing its spreading) will occur best where there are 1) capable leaders who are able to make executive decisions well and quickly, 2) a population that follows orders, 3) a capable bureaucracy to enforce and administer the plans, and 4) a capable health system to identify and treat the virus well and quickly. It will require the leaders to turn on “social distancing” quickly and effectively ahead of the virus accelerating and to withdraw it quickly as it declines. I believe that China will excel at this, major developed economies will be less good but OK, and those who are weaker than them in these respects will be dangerously worse. For this reason, I am told that it’s likely that it will s pread fast in these other countries and roughly in proportion to those four factors I just mentioned, and likely as a function of the weather (e.g., the hot weather in the Southern Hemisphere is thought to be an inhibitor). Because it is spreading fast to many countries and the reported cases and deaths are likely to increase rapidly, the news is likely to rapidly increase panicky reactions. Also, in the US there will be much more testing happening over the next couple of weeks, which will dramatically increase the numbers of reported infected people, which will also probably lead to more severe reactions and greater social distancing controls. I am told that the stresses on hospitals could become very large, which will make handling the cases of all patients more difficult. In short, I am told that we should expect much more serious problems ahead.

    2) The Economic Impact

    Reactions to the virus (e.g., “social distancing”) will probably cause a big short-term economic decline followed by a rebound, which probably will not leave a big sustained economic impact. The fact of the matter is that history has shown that even big death tolls have been much bigger emotional affairs than sustained economic and market affairs. My look into the Spanish flu case, which I’m treating as our worst-case scenario, conveys this view; so do the other cases.

    While I don’t think this will have a longer-term economic impact, I can’t say for sure that it won’t because, as you know, I believe that history has shown us that when a) there is a large wealth/political gap and there is a battle against populists of the left and populists of the right and b) there is an economic downturn, there are likely to be greater and more dysfunctional conflicts between the sides that undermine the effectiveness of decision making, and this is made worse when c) there are large debts and ineffective monetary policies and d) there are rising powers challenging the existing world powers. The last time that happened was during the 1930s leading up to World War II, and the time before that was in the period leading up to World War I. Certainly, the wealth gap and political conflict leading to possible policy changes will be top of mind along with the coronavirus on this Super Tuesday.

    3) The Market Impact

    The world is now leveraged long with a lot of cash still on the sidelines—i.e., most investors are long equities and other risky assets and the amount of leveraging that has taken place to support these positions has been large because low interest rates relative to expected returns on equities and the need to leverage up low returns to make them larger have led to this. The actions taken to curtail business activities will certainly cut revenues until the virus and business activity reverse which will lead to a rebound in revenue. That should (but won’t certainly) lead to V- or U-shaped financials for most companies. However, during the drop, the market impact on leveraged companies in the most severely affected economies will probably be significant. We will show you what that looks like shortly. My guess is that the markets will probably not distinguish well between those which can and cannot withstand well the temporary shock and will focus more on their temporary hit to revenues than they should and underweight the credit impact—e.g., a company with plenty of cash and a big temporary economic hit will probably be exaggeratedly hit relative to one that is less economically hit but has a lot of short-term debt.

    Additionally, it seems to me that this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. These folks come in all sorts of forms, such as insurance companies who insured against the consequences that we are about to experience, those who sold deep-out-of-the-money options planning to earn the premiums and cover their exposures through dynamic hedging if and when the prices get near in the money, etc. The markets are being, and will continue to be, affected by these sorts of market players getting squeezed and forced to make market moves because of cash-flow issues rather than because of thoughtful fundamental analysis. We are seeing this in very unusual and fundamentally unwarranted market action. Also, what’s interesting is how attractive some companies with good cash yields have become, especially as many market players have been shaken out.

    As far as central bank policies are concerned, interest-rate cuts and increased liquidity won’t lead to any material pickup in buying and activity from people who don’t want to go out and buy, though they can goose risky asset prices a bit at the cost of bringing rates closer to hitting ground zero. That’s true in the US. In Europe and Japan, monetary policy is virtually out of gas so it’s difficult to imagine how pure monetary policy will work. In Europe, it will be interesting to see if fiscal policy stimulations can pick up in this political environment. Also, in all countries, don’t expect much more stimulation coming from rate cuts because most of the rate cuts have already happened via the declines in bond and note yields which is what equities and most other assets are priced off of. So, it seems to me that containing the economic damage requires coordinated monetary and fiscal policy targeted more at specific cases of debt/liquidity-constrained entities rather than more blanket cuts in rates and broad increases in liquidity.

    The most important assets that you need to take good care of are you and your family. As with investing, I hope that you will imagine the worst-case scenario and protect yourself against it.
    ===========

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by Jayke (here)
    There are certain elements of the deep state hierarchy who are intent on crashing the economy before the next election cycle to make Trump unelectable. The whole Coronavirus scaremongering and hype is little more than a form of economic warfare to push things towards this end.
    we may put somethings on focus to understand "the maneuver".

    First, crash the economy is the (well knowed maneuver) to make a profit -- they spend time, money and propaganda to induce people to buy monetary bonds that give losses to the investor. At the other hand of these investments is the profit of those who sold the bonds, that can only effectively make the profit by making a loss to someone. So, the crash is the dead line between who gets the profit and who gets the loss.

    Second, Trump will certainly be re-elected, but the more he is threatened with this likely re-election, the more he will have to spend money on political campaigning, and that matters a lot to the media, which makes a lot of money promoting campaigns (and news) both for and against whoever (candidate) it is.

    Third, Coronavirus, it is the surprise factor of imbalance that is being used to promote a turnaround in everyone's plans. For Example, The money you saved to dine out with your family ends up being used to buy a box of protective masks that you may never need, so it’s an analogy similar to the titles that cause crash to the investor, because later they probably will be useless, but now it seem to be an better option to worth investing in.
    Last edited by RogeRio; 10th March 2020 at 17:04.

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Hello

    Prognostications:

    1. I agree with Jon Rappoport: Corona virus is a sham and the cabal controlled media is simply spewing CV fear porn in order to create chaos from which they will bring there intended order. David Ickes: classic problem reaction solution.

    Professionally I am a licensed Physician in the state of Arizona and I can validate Mr. Rappoport's medically based assumptions regarding the CV virus being used as a tool or means to an end -just as Sars, Ebola, swine flu were used before them.

    The primary difference, as pointed out by Mr. Celente, is the unparralled media driven CV fear porn created to falsely establish a source point for the current global economic slowdown and stock market corrections, when in fact it just poured gasoline on an already raging fire. Now, the cabal/government do not have to admit to/nor experience the repercussions of the global economic condition we all know they created.

    Bottom line: I can say with certainty that the CV is not an epidemic and will certainly not become a pandemic ( it should in fact be treated as that influenza virus until proven otherwise); hence markets will come back at least 50% from where they are now as the trump administration/congress will implement whatever stimulus packages necessary to kick the proverbial economic can down the road until after the elections.

    Now, After the elections, I predict that there will have to be a financial reset or some sort of major restructuring as lowering interest rates to zero causes the central banks to be unable earn and this is something they will not tolerate. If this is not done - there will first be deflation followed by hyperinflation. I cannot imagine these cabal bastards allowing it to get that far unless they are looking to impose some sort hypercontrolled China like society which would have to implemented out of the ensueing chaos.

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
    Now, After the elections, I predict that there will have to be a financial reset or some sort of major restructuring as lowering interest rates to zero causes the central banks to be unable earn and this is something they will not tolerate. If this is not done - there will first be deflation followed by hyperinflation. I cannot imagine these cabal bastards allowing it to get that far unless they are looking to impose some sort hypercontrolled China like society which would have to implemented out of the ensueing chaos.
    I heard it's near impossible to get hyperinflation unless the government indexes prices to inflation. Now deflation, they've been fighting it since 2008, with money printing. But money printing is mostly just causing asset inflation and full employment. If there's a recession, that full employment goes away and we're back to deflation. As long as the world wants dollars, we probably won't have hyperinflation. More likely just a pop of the asset bubbles and higher unemployment.

    Stock market's really worried about oil prices below US$40. That's WITHOUT any recession (yet).

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Thank you for the clarification TomKat

    government indexes prices to inflation.... ??? Could you elaborate on just what government indexes are and how they relate to inflation?


    I see and agree: With the global interest rates being at historic lows, along Trump calling for negative rates (which already exist in some countries) the dollar is flimsingly hanging on as the world reserve currency, but as longs it remains Hyperinflation is unlikely.

    As the world economic slow down ensues I would predict that many countries like BRICS nations and others would not honor this worldwide currency agreement - again leading to hyperinflation unless a global reset/financial restructuring is implemented.


    Thank you


    Luke


    Also the price of oil in the 30's is amazing and indicative of the fear/belief that the upcoming worldwide economic slowdown/recession/depression is eminent.

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    In just the first few opening minutes of this new video, Dr Nick Begich sums it all up perfectly. The video's been posted on a couple of other forum threads, but I make this comment here because Begich correctly states the simple truth that no matter what monetary instruments the US Fed (or any other agency in any other country) tries to apply, it'll make no difference to the markets because the problems are all supply-side.

    (In other words: if there are no products to buy, no financial incentives will encourage consumers to buy what's just not there.)

    He's also correct inasmuch as these serious issues — and also those about to impact every nation's healthcare system — are all too real regardless of the origin of the problem, or even the possible motivation for any of this happening at all.

    It doesn't what the cause is of the big avalanche. Best get out of the way, and prepare to dig your family and friends out of it if they get buried. The reason the avalanche happened is a different conversation.


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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    If real data continue to track forecasts made during the early 1970s, we should be seeing problems with economic output a few years from now:

    "Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
    government indexes prices to inflation.... ??? Could you elaborate on just what government indexes are and how they relate to inflation?
    In this context, index as a verb means automatically adjusted. A weakening currency will cause prices of imports to increase. In the US we let the middle class just eat that increase, so people go into debt or bankrupt or whatever -- because their salaries stay the same -- resulting in a recession. But what if they started to automatically adjust everyone's salary or pension to keep up with the weakening of the dollar? That's when hyperinflation takes hold. This is what was historically done in countries that had this problem.

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by TomKat (here)
    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
    government indexes prices to inflation.... ??? Could you elaborate on just what government indexes are and how they relate to inflation?
    In this context, index as a verb means automatically adjusted. A weakening currency will cause prices of imports to increase. In the US we let the middle class just eat that increase, so people go into debt or bankrupt or whatever -- because their salaries stay the same -- resulting in a recession. But what if they started to automatically adjust everyone's salary or pension to keep up with the weakening of the dollar? That's when hyperinflation takes hold. This is what was historically done in countries that had this problem.
    Hello Tom

    SO currently we will likely be seeing a supply chain decline leading to greater buyer demand and higher prices for goods and services.

    I would assume inflation is the result as my dollar will be worth proportionately less.

    Hyperinflation will not occur until salaries also begin to rise proportionately in attempt to cover the rising cost of goods and services - is that right?
    Last edited by Luke Holiday; 13th March 2020 at 02:11.

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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
    Quote Posted by TomKat (here)
    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
    government indexes prices to inflation.... ??? Could you elaborate on just what government indexes are and how they relate to inflation?
    In this context, index as a verb means automatically adjusted. A weakening currency will cause prices of imports to increase. In the US we let the middle class just eat that increase, so people go into debt or bankrupt or whatever -- because their salaries stay the same -- resulting in a recession. But what if they started to automatically adjust everyone's salary or pension to keep up with the weakening of the dollar? That's when hyperinflation takes hold. This is what was historically done in countries that had this problem.
    Hello Tom

    SO currently we will likely be seeing a supply chain decline leading to greater buyer demand and higher prices for goods and services.

    I would assume inflation is the result as my dollar will be worth proportionately less.

    Hyperinflation will not occur until salaries also begin to rise proportionately in attempt to cover the rising cost of goods and services - is that right?
    Yes, except declining supply does not create increasing demand, just higher prices. Supply goes down, price goes up. Demand goes down, supply goes up. Like a see-saw. But in a global marketplace, where currency has its own market, things aren't that simple. After the global panic of 2008, the US dollar (the least bad currency) went up in value at a time of decreasing demand (increasing unemployment) in the US, exacerbating deflation. Which the Fed is still fighting with money printing, asset purchases, etc. It looks like the Fed is determined to keep printing money until there's a complete loss of faith in the money.
    Last edited by TomKat; 14th March 2020 at 02:35.

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    Germany Avalon Member wegge's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    I never understood how an economy could break down even if there was no more money or randomly changing Wall Street Numbers or anything at all.

    No resources, no knowledge of processing them, (and probably also not millions of irreplaceable workers) would suddenly be puff! gone with the wind.

    It seems to me just like a forced vacation that yes - for a time can disrupt supply chains - but if it takes up steam again and works normal (with no bombs being dropped at factories - or natural catastrophes - or aliens siphoning off some of our goodies) nothing would have been vanished and companies could even ramp up their halted productions, being well and rested from their holidays, eager to deliver again - having to catch up with a lot of business water that got walled up behind a dam.

    All scenarios of breakdown are to me pure fiction, but if enough believe that story yes it can surely become a fact.

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    Canada Avalon Member TomKat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by wegge (here)
    I never understood how an economy could break down even if there was no more money or randomly changing Wall Street Numbers or anything at all.

    No resources, no knowledge of processing them, (and probably also not millions of irreplaceable workers) would suddenly be puff! gone with the wind.

    It seems to me just like a forced vacation that yes - for a time can disrupt supply chains - but if it takes up steam again and works normal (with no bombs being dropped at factories - or natural catastrophes - or aliens siphoning off some of our goodies) nothing would have been vanished and companies could even ramp up their halted productions, being well and rested from their holidays, eager to deliver again - having to catch up with a lot of business water that got walled up behind a dam.

    All scenarios of breakdown are to me pure fiction, but if enough believe that story yes it can surely become a fact.
    People are already being laid off. They won't be spending much at the stores and restaurants. Who will have to lay people off due to the decreased amount of business. Whose former employees won't be spending much... a vicious circle. What's not to understand?

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    Unhappy Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by TomKat (here)
    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
    Quote Posted by TomKat (here)
    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
    government indexes prices to inflation.... ??? Could you elaborate on just what government indexes are and how they relate to inflation?
    In this context, index as a verb means automatically adjusted. A weakening currency will cause prices of imports to increase. In the US we let the middle class just eat that increase, so people go into debt or bankrupt or whatever -- because their salaries stay the same -- resulting in a recession. But what if they started to automatically adjust everyone's salary or pension to keep up with the weakening of the dollar? That's when hyperinflation takes hold. This is what was historically done in countries that had this problem.
    Hello Tom

    SO currently we will likely be seeing a supply chain decline leading to greater buyer demand and higher prices for goods and services.

    I would assume inflation is the result as my dollar will be worth proportionately less.

    Hyperinflation will not occur until salaries also begin to rise proportionately in attempt to cover the rising cost of goods and services - is that right?
    Yes, except declining supply does not create increasing demand, just higher prices. Supply goes down, price goes up. Demand goes down, supply goes up. Like a see-saw. But in a global marketplace, where currency has its own market, things aren't that simple. After the global panic of 2008, the US dollar (the least bad currency) went up in value at a time of decreasing demand (increasing unemployment) in the US, exacerbating deflation. Which the Fed is still fighting with money printing, asset purchases, etc. It looks like the Fed is determined to keep printing money until there's a complete loss of faith in the money.

    Hello Tom, Dennis and fellow Avalonians

    It appears to me, that a primary reason for the corona virus is to create a source point of blame for the global economic meltdown that is occurring right before our eyes.

    We all knew this day was coming and the CV (as Mike Malony from Gold/Silver.com states) is the Pin that has Popped the everything bubble leading to major economic upheaval.

    The CV conveniently provides the PTB/International Bankers the necessary ruse to divert attention/blame away from themselves for the creation of the current global economic crisis/meltdown.

    From here on out, the MSM will divert all blame for a worsening global economic on the CV and away from the real perps -The GCB (Global Cabal Bastards ).

    The CDC just gave the recommendation to limit all crowds to no more the 50 people - ( GCB speak/translation - Lets continue our social distancing campaign and prevent them from peacefully assembling).

    Banks are not allowing customers into banks - relegating all business to be done via internet/phone and limited drive thru
    (GCB speakTranslation - limiting the likelihood of a bank run)


    I am also seeing a GCB planned worldwide CV testing procedure that involves DNA collection along with a subsequent worldwide vaccine agenda playing out.

    I am seeing the primary medical test for the CV, known as the PCR test, has not been proven valid/reliable.

    I am seeing a symptom picture of CV that delineates itself from the influenza virus in the form of lung damage and pneumonia - both of which had been occurring in extremely high incidence rates in the heavily air polluted Wuhan, china for years prior to the CV.

    I see a media fear porn machine like I have never seen before... and it appears to be working as people run to horde TP (GCB translation: lets use the propaganda to maximize fear/panic in order to pacify the masses into acquiescing to our planned solutions (Problem reaction solution)


    I may be wrong about this, and the CV may in fact have originated from some stewing batch of bat guano and maybe it is doing exactly what the official governmental organizations are saying that it is doing.

    But the reasons I am vigorously questioning the official narrative is the obvious larger problem here: I/we simply do not trust our governments!

    We have witnessed most major world changing events beginning with a false flag moment - Just as I believe we are seeing with current CV/economic meltdown.

    PLEASE NOTE:

    The above, is just how I see the CV/world economic meltdown tie in - based on all the evidence I have absorbed over the last several weeks. It is less important then the following half of this post, which is my attempt to understand what economically happens next.

    This weekend, The Fed has committed over a trillion dollars to QE in the form of repos, 700 billion in asset purchases (they will own billions more in mortgages) and zero interest rates.

    Based on my limited current knowledge, I believe that the current global monetary systems days are numbered and will likely not last until the November elections.

    I believe we are heading for short term deflation, as evidenced by the historically low oil prices and global CV shutdowns. Within 3-5 months this will be followed by Hyperinflation. occurring when the bankers are forced to "Helicopter drop money" to bail out business's (… that are too big to fail - travel, oil industies etc) and US citizens in mass, in order to offset the rising prices brought on by low supply/high demand for good/services.

    The Helicopter money drops will be a last ditch effort to keep the game going.

    The charade will ultimately lead to the (planned) destruction of the world economic system creating chaos; thus harbinging the (planned) new monetary system. Right out of the cabal playbook - Problem, reaction solution/ and order out of chaos


    How do you see it playing out? Am I close here...

    Thank you

    Luke
    Last edited by Luke Holiday; 19th March 2020 at 02:33.

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    Canada Avalon Member TomKat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic and Financial Prognostications, Trends, and Data, 2020

    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
    How do you see it playing out? Am I close here...
    Luke
    It'll be a replay of the 2008 crisis. Dollar strengthening, gold, stocks and commodities falling -- a deflationary scenario. Followed by the govt trying to reflate (if they can this time).

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