Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

[DaveToo]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)

Posted by Luke Holiday (here)

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
The stats from Sweden, Brazil and Belarus will tell their own clear story (whatever that might be) in a week or two.

… I don't follow - could you elaborate?

Sweden, Brazil and Belarus are the three countries which are blatantly doing things very differently from all others. The results of their strategies will show up in their numbers, one way or another, soon.

And so the "results of their strategies" have shown up in their numbers, for these naughty, non-complying (gasp) non-lockdown countries.

Less than two weeks from your post we can see clear trends have developed with these three countries: Belarus, Brazil and Sweden.

Belarus likely peaked already, a nothing burger here.
With a population of 9.5 million and a whopping total of 8022 cases and 60 deaths.

That is not a spike in the case/death rate in the Belarus chart a few days ago. They simply didn’t include the tallies from the two previous days and lumped them all together for one day (three in one day).



Brazil likely peaked, certainly nothing extraordinary happening there.
With a population of 212 million the number of cases and deaths are like a drop in a bucket.; 50,036 cases and 3,331 deaths.



Sweden is likely close to peaking.
With a population of 10 million it has 16,755 cases and 2,021 deaths. Certainly nothing
to write home about.



Considering the sizes of these countries, the number of cases and deaths in each is laughable really as far as fear and contagion goes.
And they’ve accomplished this all by bucking the trend and not locking down.

If you click on each chart you can see a bigger version.
This is the ‘key’ for the charts:
series 2 = cases
series 1 = deaths

[Luke Holiday]

Posted by DaveToo (here)

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)

Posted by Luke Holiday (here)

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
The stats from Sweden, Brazil and Belarus will tell their own clear story (whatever that might be) in a week or two.

… I don't follow - could you elaborate?

Sweden, Brazil and Belarus are the three countries which are blatantly doing things very differently from all others. The results of their strategies will show up in their numbers, one way or another, soon.

And so the "results of their strategies" have shown up in their numbers, for these naughty, non-complying (gasp) non-lockdown countries.

Less than two weeks from your post we can see clear trends have developed with these three countries: Belarus, Brazil and Sweden.

Belarus likely peaked already, a nothing burger here.
With a population of 9.5 million and a whopping total of 8022 cases and 60 deaths.

That is not a spike in the case/death rate in the Belarus chart a few days ago. They simply didn’t include the tallies from the two previous days and lumped them all together for one day (three in one day).



Brazil likely peaked, certainly nothing extraordinary happening there.
With a population of 212 million the number of cases and deaths are like a drop in a bucket.; 50,036 cases and 3,331 deaths.



Sweden is likely close to peaking.
With a population of 10 million it has 16,755 cases and 2,021 deaths. Certainly nothing
to write home about.



Considering the sizes of these countries, the number of cases and deaths in each is laughable really as far as fear and contagion goes.
And they’ve accomplished this all by bucking the trend and not locking down.

If you click on each chart you can see a bigger version.
This is the ‘key’ for the charts:
series 2 = cases
series 1 = deaths

… well done!!! - where did you get your graphs and stats? for the last 2 weeks - did you have to do the laborious plug and chug?

Be well

Luke

[DaveToo]

Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
… well done!!! - where did you get your graphs and stats? for the last 2 weeks - did you have to do the laborious plug and chug?

Be well

Luke

Thanks Luke!

I have been keeping track of 60+ countries for the past few weeks.
I create graphs daily, using the data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).
I wrote macros in Excel to simplify the graph creations.

A picture is worth a thousand words as they say, and these graphs are how I start each day.

I can quickly zero in on the 'hot spot' countries at just a glance.

The daily fear-porn that the MSM produces is totally useless.
Each day you see headlines of 2,725,920 Covid-19 CASES and 191,061 DEATHS etc.
and the big numbers are in red and seem really scary to the public.

But what good are they if you have no point of reference?

If the MSM had any guts, each and every day they would publish the following numbers in their headlines:

Total worldwide Covid-19 cases 'a'
Total worldwide Seasonal flu cases 'b'

Total worldwide Covid-19 deaths 'c'
Total worldwide Seasonal flu deaths 'd'

Then people with half a brain would begin to say to themselves... "Gee, what's the big deal with this Covid-19 virus?
I can clearly see that it's not nearly as dangerous as the seasonal flu!"

[onawah]

Millions Are Being Murdered | The Killer Cure
Apr 23, 2020
Suspicious0bservers
462K subscribers

"Antibody tests worldwide confirm VAST exposure to coronavirus, which means the real kill rate is exceptionally low. They shut down the world over a flu-level kill rate. The real harm is caused by the halt of society, which supports the existence of 7 billion people. They have sentenced millions to death with their 'cure' because of the poverty and hunger it has created.

Before working in physics, Ben Davidson worked with the Ceragenin compound group, discovering the membrane depolarization mechanism of action involving cationic attachment and deconstruction via hydrophobic tail activity. The compounds are well-understood to be anti-viral and mimic the activity of the human body's own immune system. None of this is relevant in this discussion of the statistics, but some people demand to know why you deserve the microphone on a given topic."

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=F-2C27YLCGE

[greybeard]

onawah I am surprised at the number of Avalon members who dont seem to get that the "virus" is mainly a hyped event.
The fear story seems to be bought into.
I really wish people would look into the aftermath of lockdown -- the heart break suffering that this is causing instead of being stuck in -- is this a flu or a virus should we wear the mask? leading to inoculation no doubt.
People dont seem aware to the degree they are being brain washed.
Tell the same lie over and over and it becomes believed.
Your posts, onawah, are a welcome pointer to the truth.
Chris

[Luke Holiday]

Here is Tucker reporting on the states in the US that are not on lockdown and of course we have the same story... part begins at 30 sec


enjoy

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=MuuA0azQRGQ

… I don't know about you but I'm gettin a little peeved - I want retribution! … Or at least let me go to the GD beach and the gym!!!

Blessings luke

[Luke Holiday]

Posted by DaveToo (here)

Posted by Luke Holiday (here)
… well done!!! - where did you get your graphs and stats? for the last 2 weeks - did you have to do the laborious plug and chug?

Be well

Luke

Thanks Luke!

I have been keeping track of 60+ countries for the past few weeks.
I create graphs daily, using the data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).
I wrote macros in Excel to simplify the graph creations.

A picture is worth a thousand words as they say, and these graphs are how I start each day.

I can quickly zero in on the 'hot spot' countries at just a glance.

The daily fear-porn that the MSM produces is totally useless.
Each day you see headlines of 2,725,920 Covid-19 CASES and 191,061 DEATHS etc.
and the big numbers are in red and seem really scary to the public.

But what good are they if you have no point of reference?

If the MSM had any guts, each and every day they would publish the following numbers in their headlines:

Total worldwide Covid-19 cases 'a'
Total worldwide Seasonal flu cases 'b'

Total worldwide Covid-19 deaths 'c'
Total worldwide Seasonal flu deaths 'd'

Then people with half a brain would begin to say to themselves... "Gee, what's the big deal with this Covid-19 virus?
I can clearly see that it's not nearly as dangerous as the seasonal flu!"

Agreed... and that's is why we have to do it here Thanks again - that is truly stellar work!!!

[pueblo]

Posted by graciousb (here)

Posted by shaberon (here)
I don't think we can match Sweden step for step.

In ten days they went from 4 to 10 thousand cases (and are noticeably beyond that now). Here, it went from 4 to maybe 6,500, out of over 70,000 tests. The hospitalizations are actually decreasing.

Even if the tests and large pile of information are not very accurate, the number of people who are sick enough to be incapacitated is very tangible--it just is not very large. If we were not mostly kicked out of public and that number doubled, would it be a strain? Maybe. But we do not really know that normal function would double it.

Even though it looks worse than here, Sweden considers themselves not as bad off as the hot spots, UK, Italy, etc.

But the 'cases' in the stats includes people testing positive who are not sick or have mild symptoms. I'm in California, we've been on strict lockdown for many weeks, yet mass testing (I spoke to a nurse yesterday in Orange County where I was getting tested myself, she tested a company of 400 and had 50 positives, 30 were positive for antibodies, and 20 had active infection but no one extremely sick, I don't know demographics of the employees) , showing the thing is transmitting anyway. The lockdown is just prolonging the misery really.

Dr. Erickson from Bakersfield, CA agress with you..

The chance of dying from Covid-19 in California? 0.03%

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU

[Luke Holiday]

Posted by onawah (here)
Millions Are Being Murdered | The Killer Cure
Apr 23, 2020
Suspicious0bservers
462K subscribers

"Antibody tests worldwide confirm VAST exposure to coronavirus, which means the real kill rate is exceptionally low. They shut down the world over a flu-level kill rate. The real harm is caused by the halt of society, which supports the existence of 7 billion people. They have sentenced millions to death with their 'cure' because of the poverty and hunger it has created.

Before working in physics, Ben Davidson worked with the Ceragenin compound group, discovering the membrane depolarization mechanism of action involving cationic attachment and deconstruction via hydrophobic tail activity. The compounds are well-understood to be anti-viral and mimic the activity of the human body's own immune system. None of this is relevant in this discussion of the statistics, but some people demand to know why you deserve the microphone on a given topic."

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=F-2C27YLCGE

Onawah,

I was confused by this post, do you agree or disagree, were you addressing myself of anyone else on the thread? If you have the time could you clarify.


Thanks


luke

[onawah]

From all that I've read, I think Davidson is right, and that the virus is causing no more deaths than seasonal flu, but that the lockdown is going to cause millions of deaths, mostly of those people all over the world who are living from hand to mouth.
(And he's generally a good source of info, though his usual focus is investigating solar activity, earthquakes, astrophysics and weather.)
And I agree that the vaccine for it will do more harm than good.
I think the elite's de-population agenda is what is behind this whole scenario.
That was my only reason for posting that info.

Posted by Luke Holiday (here)

Onawah,

I was confused by this post, do you agree or disagree, were you addressing myself of anyone else on the thread? If you have the time could you clarify.


Thanks


luke

[Luke Holiday]

Posted by onawah (here)
From all that I've read, I think Davidson is right, and that the virus is causing no more deaths than seasonal flu, but that the lockdown is going to cause millions of deaths, mostly of those people all over the world who are living from hand to mouth.
(And he's generally a good source of info, though his usual focus is investigating solar activity, earthquakes, astrophysics and weather.)
And I agree that the vaccine for it will do more harm than good.
I think the elite's de-population agenda is what is behind this whole scenario.
That was my only reason for posting that info.

Posted by Luke Holiday (here)

Onawah,

I was confused by this post, do you agree or disagree, were you addressing myself of anyone else on the thread? If you have the time could you clarify.


Thanks


luke

From all that I've read, I think Davidson is right, and that the virus is causing no more deaths than seasonal flu

Thank you for responding back
...hard to say - even if you trust the stats.. so many reports of inflated numbers coming from a variety of sources, huge financial incentives being offered for the Covid 19 death certificate diagnosis.

Certainly the MSM is giving that impression

Does anyone have the current number comparisons, CV 19 vs influenza even the stats - my guess you are right CV19 will be higher.

[DaveToo]

Thank the Lord for controls!
Anyone who comes from a scientific background knows just how important controls are in experiments.

Thankfully we have many countries and states that can be used as controls
to see how effective or non-effective lockdowns have been.

This is VITALLY IMPORTANT because no MSM outlet nor government will be able to say when this is over, "You see it was our strict lockdown measures that saved lives. We had no other choice but to ruin economies".


I will add a few more non-lockdown countries that are doing very well thank you very much.

Japan pop. 126 million
12,368 cases
328 deaths
likely peaked already

Iceland pop. 341 K
1,789 cases
10 deaths
Peaked three weeks ago

Taiwan pop. 23 Mill
428 cases
6 deaths
Peaked over a month ago
https://healthimpactnews.com/2020/ta...d-by-covid-19/

South Korea pop. 51 Mill
10,708 cases
240 deaths
Peaked over a month ago

If anyone wants any graphs of these countries let me know and I'll post them.

[graciousb]

Posted by greybeard (here)
onawah I am surprised at the number of Avalon members who dont seem to get that the "virus" is mainly a hyped event.
The fear story seems to be bought into.
I really wish people would look into the aftermath of lockdown -- the heart break suffering that this is causing instead of being stuck in -- is this a flu or a virus should we wear the mask? leading to inoculation no doubt.
People dont seem aware to the degree they are being brain washed.
Tell the same lie over and over and it becomes believed.
Your posts, onawah, are a welcome pointer to the truth.
Chris

It's feeling to me like some kind of religion or ideology, a litmus test of good character a la 1950s ''red scare'' in the US where your willingless to believe was a sign of good citizen, or the witch scares of late middle ages where there was a witch or devil behind every door, and rooting them out signaled your virtue. So nonbelievers in Church of Covid are blasphemers and bad actors willing to harm the vulnerable and thus worthy of being dragged in the press and social media. Haven't we been through this rodeo before? When will we wake up.

[Luke Holiday]

Posted by DaveToo (here)
Thank the Lord for controls!
Anyone who comes from a scientific background knows just how important controls are in experiments.

Thankfully we have many countries and states that can be used as controls
to see how effective or non-effective lockdowns have been.

This is VITALLY IMPORTANT because no MSM outlet nor government will be able to say when this is over, "You see it was our strict lockdown measures that saved lives. We had no other choice but to ruin economies".


I will add a few more non-lockdown countries that are doing very well thank you very much.

Japan pop. 126 million
12,368 cases
328 deaths
likely peaked already

Iceland pop. 341 K
1,789 cases
10 deaths
Peaked three weeks ago

Taiwan pop. 23 Mill
428 cases
6 deaths
Peaked over a month ago
https://healthimpactnews.com/2020/ta...d-by-covid-19/

South Korea pop. 51 Mill
10,708 cases
240 deaths
Peaked over a month ago

If anyone wants any graphs of these countries let me know and I'll post them.

Yes please … and thanks again for doing the leg work OH just to be clear the numbers in red are just for this week?

[Luke Holiday]

Posted by graciousb (here)

Posted by greybeard (here)
onawah I am surprised at the number of Avalon members who dont seem to get that the "virus" is mainly a hyped event.
The fear story seems to be bought into.
I really wish people would look into the aftermath of lockdown -- the heart break suffering that this is causing instead of being stuck in -- is this a flu or a virus should we wear the mask? leading to inoculation no doubt.
People dont seem aware to the degree they are being brain washed.
Tell the same lie over and over and it becomes believed.
Your posts, onawah, are a welcome pointer to the truth.
Chris

It's feeling to me like some kind of religion or ideology, a litmus test of good character a la 1950s ''red scare'' in the US where your willingless to believe was a sign of good citizen, or the witch scares of late middle ages where there was a witch or devil behind every door, and rooting them out signaled your virtue. So nonbelievers in Church of Covid are blasphemers and bad actors willing to harm the vulnerable and thus worthy of being dragged in the press and social media. Haven't we been through this rodeo before? When will we wake up.

I agree and I think this is why stories of death number manipulation c/b with statistics where people can look at the numbers (of likely inflated numbers) can be a powerful tool to change minds and in the long run - save lives

Luke

[Chester]

http://merlynagain.blogspot.com/2020...-that-has.html

Enjoy

Posted February 26, 2020 here -

Today is prediction day for me. You can slam me later on when (if) I am proven wrong.

I believe the freakout about COVID-19 will be looked upon as "way overblown."

Those who have allowed themselves to be "self-educated" by observing the dynamics of "public perception manipulation" (especially by taking the advanced, accelerated "courses" in such... those that have been so prevalent the last several years) have learned to observe "what they are telling us" and then "gauge the degree of fear" these efforts are attempting to achieve... then analyze these two within the framework of what "they" wish to achieve, and then...

...conclude quite the opposite!

Since I have begun to employ, with discipline and consistency, this very approach, I have found my accuracy rate of my conclusions which inform my predictions has been raised exponentially.

This COVID-19 will prove to be so.

[Luke Holiday]

Here is a link I think everyone in the US may be interested in:

https://bestlifeonline.com/when-will...-lockdown-end/

1more week for me


Be well and when this is over - may we all dance like no one is watching!!!

… be sure to tap on Ms Bennes

Luke

[DaveToo]

Posted by Luke Holiday (here)

Does anyone have the current number comparisons, CV 19 vs influenza even the stats - my guess you are right CV19 will be higher.

Best to get stats straight from the horse's mouth.

The U.S. CDC estimates that, from October 1, 2019, through April 4, 2020, there have been:

24,000 – 62,000 flu deaths

If we take the middle of the estimate, we get 43,000 flu deaths.

Remember that is as of April 4, 2020

As of today, April 24, 2020 we have 52,092 Covid-19 deaths.

So if we add the flu deaths from Apr 4 to Apr 24, we will come up with roughly the same number of deaths.

But I have come up with a much bigger discovery today.
More to follow soon!

[DaveToo]

Posted by Luke Holiday (here)

Yes please … and thanks again for doing the leg work OH just to be clear the numbers in red are just for this week?

NO !!!!
Those numbers are the TOTAL deaths!!!


Here are the charts you asked for:

Japan:


Iceland:


Taiwan:


That spike you see in this Taiwan graph is not for one day!
Data was not provided for three straight days, as you can see in the graph.
So the spike is FOUR day's worth of data!

South Korea:

[graciousb]

Posted by greybeard (here)
onawah I am surprised at the number of Avalon members who dont seem to get that the "virus" is mainly a hyped event.
The fear story seems to be bought into.
I really wish people would look into the aftermath of lockdown -- the heart break suffering that this is causing instead of being stuck in -- is this a flu or a virus should we wear the mask? leading to inoculation no doubt.
People dont seem aware to the degree they are being brain washed.
Tell the same lie over and over and it becomes believed.
Your posts, onawah, are a welcome pointer to the truth.
Chris

Posted by pueblo (here)

Posted by graciousb (here)

Posted by shaberon (here)
I don't think we can match Sweden step for step.

In ten days they went from 4 to 10 thousand cases (and are noticeably beyond that now). Here, it went from 4 to maybe 6,500, out of over 70,000 tests. The hospitalizations are actually decreasing.

Even if the tests and large pile of information are not very accurate, the number of people who are sick enough to be incapacitated is very tangible--it just is not very large. If we were not mostly kicked out of public and that number doubled, would it be a strain? Maybe. But we do not really know that normal function would double it.

Even though it looks worse than here, Sweden considers themselves not as bad off as the hot spots, UK, Italy, etc.

But the 'cases' in the stats includes people testing positive who are not sick or have mild symptoms. I'm in California, we've been on strict lockdown for many weeks, yet mass testing (I spoke to a nurse yesterday in Orange County where I was getting tested myself, she tested a company of 400 and had 50 positives, 30 were positive for antibodies, and 20 had active infection but no one extremely sick, I don't know demographics of the employees) , showing the thing is transmitting anyway. The lockdown is just prolonging the misery really.

Dr. Erickson from Bakersfield, CA agress with you..

The chance of dying from Covid-19 in California? 0.03%

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU

Thank you SO MUCH for posting that! Their calm, measured, factual, on the ground science based information presented so powerfully, even staying gracious with the reporters ignorant questions and lack of listening, made me actually choke up in sheer relief.