+ Reply to Thread
Page 3 of 6 FirstFirst 1 3 6 LastLast
Results 41 to 60 of 106

Thread: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

  1. Link to Post #41
    Canada Avalon Member
    Join Date
    16th September 2018
    Posts
    1,790
    Thanks
    5,347
    Thanked 10,971 times in 1,706 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Quote Posted by Luke Holiday (here)

    Does anyone have the current number comparisons, CV 19 vs influenza even the stats - my guess you are right CV19 will be higher.
    I do have the stats as I pointed out in one of my latest posts.

    But I am watching right now perhaps THE best video I've watched over the past couple of months on this.
    It was mentioned recently:
    https://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...=1#post1353017

    He also covers your question at the 17:00 mark.

    Dr. Erickson nails all the points I have been trying to make for weeks now.

    And the bonus is that he and his colleague are MD's !!!
    Now that adds a lot of clout!

    It is an absolute MUST view.
    Last edited by DaveToo; 25th April 2020 at 05:04. Reason: other notes added

  2. The Following 10 Users Say Thank You to DaveToo For This Post:

    araucaria (25th April 2020), Chester (25th April 2020), Elainie (25th April 2020), Ernie Nemeth (25th April 2020), graciousb (25th April 2020), greybeard (25th April 2020), Gwin Ru (29th April 2020), Luke Holiday (1st May 2020), Philippe (25th April 2020), pueblo (25th April 2020)

  3. Link to Post #42
    United States Avalon Member onawah's Avatar
    Join Date
    28th March 2010
    Language
    English
    Posts
    22,260
    Thanks
    47,745
    Thanked 116,522 times in 20,692 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    It seems the elite of China and of the US are actually working together, trying to push the public through fear into a lockstep toward an Orwellian NWO, implemented through a fear and dumbing down program, with the end result of a "social credit system" such as we already see in China, which would grow only more and more Draconian in time.
    See: https://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...=1#post1353140

    Quote Posted by graciousb (here)
    Quote Posted by greybeard (here)
    onawah I am surprised at the number of Avalon members who dont seem to get that the "virus" is mainly a hyped event.
    The fear story seems to be bought into.
    I really wish people would look into the aftermath of lockdown -- the heart break suffering that this is causing instead of being stuck in -- is this a flu or a virus should we wear the mask? leading to inoculation no doubt.
    People dont seem aware to the degree they are being brain washed.
    Tell the same lie over and over and it becomes believed.
    Your posts, onawah, are a welcome pointer to the truth.
    Chris
    It's feeling to me like some kind of religion or ideology, a litmus test of good character a la 1950s ''red scare'' in the US where your willingless to believe was a sign of good citizen, or the witch scares of late middle ages where there was a witch or devil behind every door, and rooting them out signaled your virtue. So nonbelievers in Church of Covid are blasphemers and bad actors willing to harm the vulnerable and thus worthy of being dragged in the press and social media. Haven't we been through this rodeo before? When will we wake up.
    Each breath a gift...
    _____________

  4. The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to onawah For This Post:

    Chester (25th April 2020), DaveToo (25th April 2020), pueblo (25th April 2020), wondering (29th April 2020), XelNaga (28th May 2020)

  5. Link to Post #43
    Scotland Avalon Member greybeard's Avatar
    Join Date
    17th March 2010
    Location
    Inverness-----Scotland
    Language
    English
    Age
    78
    Posts
    13,356
    Thanks
    32,618
    Thanked 68,863 times in 11,839 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Agree DaveToo.
    These Drs have properly researched the numbers and their conclusions echo what I said in my very first post on the subject.
    No worse than the seasonal flu -- more people die of other things.
    Lockdown unnecessary for the workforce.
    The consequences of the "cure" much worse than the disease -- millions loosing their jobs.
    Who will pay the mortgage?
    Many will become homeless.
    Chris
    Be kind to all life, including your own, no matter what!!

  6. The Following 9 Users Say Thank You to greybeard For This Post:

    araucaria (25th April 2020), Chester (25th April 2020), DaveToo (25th April 2020), Ernie Nemeth (25th April 2020), graciousb (25th April 2020), onawah (26th April 2020), Philippe (25th April 2020), pueblo (25th April 2020), XelNaga (28th May 2020)

  7. Link to Post #44
    Ireland Avalon Member pueblo's Avatar
    Join Date
    5th February 2016
    Posts
    2,235
    Thanks
    9,900
    Thanked 18,535 times in 2,211 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Quote Posted by graciousb (here)
    Thank you SO MUCH for posting that! Their calm, measured, factual, on the ground science based information presented so powerfully, even staying gracious with the reporters ignorant questions and lack of listening, made me actually choke up in sheer relief.
    You are welcome, it had the same effect on me!

    It's nice to hear rational common sense applied to this 'situation', so tired of all the blatantly misplaced fear being pushed by many atm.

  8. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to pueblo For This Post:

    DaveToo (25th April 2020), graciousb (25th April 2020), greybeard (25th April 2020), onawah (26th April 2020)

  9. Link to Post #45
    United States Avalon Member Chester's Avatar
    Join Date
    15th December 2011
    Location
    into my third life within this one
    Language
    English
    Age
    66
    Posts
    6,069
    Thanks
    34,011
    Thanked 33,206 times in 5,691 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Quote Posted by greybeard (here)
    Agree DaveToo.
    These Drs have properly researched the numbers and their conclusions echo what I said in my very first post on the subject.
    No worse than the seasonal flu -- more people die of other things.
    Lockdown unnecessary for the workforce.
    The consequences of the "cure" much worse than the disease -- millions loosing their jobs.
    Who will pay the mortgage?
    Many will become homeless.
    Chris
    Just what the "Dr." ordered.
    All the above is all and only my opinion - all subject to change and not meant to be true for anyone else regardless of how I phrase it.

  10. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Chester For This Post:

    greybeard (25th April 2020), onawah (26th April 2020), wondering (29th April 2020), XelNaga (28th May 2020)

  11. Link to Post #46
    France Avalon Member araucaria's Avatar
    Join Date
    24th January 2011
    Posts
    5,400
    Thanks
    12,061
    Thanked 30,977 times in 5,003 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    I take two things from this excellent press conference.



    1) apart from everything else, the lockdown will be having a negative effect on everyone’s immune system, and fear is a part of this. So do what you can to protect it.


    2) it is sufficient to be an academic of 20 years standing without seeing a patient to have a very distorted view of the situation. A theory is a useful starting point until data begins coming in to contradict it.


    Combining the two, it seems clear that this is not a time to be entertaining conspiracy theories, for the bigger they are, the more fear they instill. Regardless of the reality or otherwise of such scenarios, much better stick to the baseline idea that Dr Fauci is in his ivory tower, and needs to get out a bit more, as do the rest of us. There is much more chance of getting someone to back down by telling them they were right but things have changed than by telling them they are evil people planning on doing even worse things. It's called diplomacy.


    Here is an article from Le Monde with some figures for France. On April 17, compared with 2018 (the worst recent year), there were 13,349 extra deaths in 2020. On that day 18,681 covid deaths had been reported. This means that 5,332 deaths out of the 13,349 extra deaths were due to other causes (comorbidities), and hence 29% of the reported covid deaths were due to something else. This is supposing that this year would otherwise have been as bad as the worst in the last five years. It might not have been that bad, and of course it might have been worse still. But if we took an average figure, this 29% figure would be even higher.


    Something to watch out for: the doctors warn of a massive kickback in health issues after lockdown is lifted. There is a real danger that these patients will be recycled back to the covid monster, which would only be an excuse for more lockdown. So, if you are going to have anything at this time, it might be a good idea – if you can – to catch shingles or at least (since shingles is not a good idea) something else entirely unrelated to this virus.
    Last edited by araucaria; 25th April 2020 at 18:12.


  12. The Following 8 Users Say Thank You to araucaria For This Post:

    Chester (26th April 2020), DaveToo (25th April 2020), Ernie Nemeth (25th April 2020), graciousb (25th April 2020), greybeard (25th April 2020), Gwin Ru (29th April 2020), Luke Holiday (8th May 2020), pueblo (25th April 2020)

  13. Link to Post #47
    United States Avalon Member
    Join Date
    1st April 2016
    Posts
    4,400
    Thanks
    17,201
    Thanked 21,933 times in 4,050 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Here is a counter-point: Nepal.

    In Nepal, there is no such thing as a "medical system". They have to import food since a large portion of the population works in other countries. In mid-March, they found three infected individuals returning from abroad.

    The response was nothing medical, but an immediate, utter lockdown, no one around but police.

    As of now they have come to forty-eight infections and zero deaths.

    There are about thirty million of them, three times the size of Sweden. They perhaps lack nursing homes, aircraft carriers, or a large prison industry, so there are no ideal breeding grounds.

    In the long run, they will have to "re-open" and of course this will allow it to spread, but for the time being, they have yet to make a statistic.

  14. The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to shaberon For This Post:

    DaveToo (5th May 2020), graciousb (1st May 2020), greybeard (29th April 2020), Gwin Ru (29th April 2020), wondering (29th April 2020)

  15. Link to Post #48
    Avalon Member
    Join Date
    3rd July 2018
    Posts
    4,392
    Thanks
    40,297
    Thanked 33,745 times in 4,372 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Here is the YouTube-disappeared video on Bitchute:


    RAMZPAUL ramzpaul

    This is a video two California medical doctors (immunologists) who presented their data concerning COVID-19. Because their findings conflicted with the globalist narrative, YouTube censors banned it.

  16. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Gwin Ru For This Post:

    greybeard (29th April 2020), Luke Holiday (1st May 2020)

  17. Link to Post #49
    Administrator Mark (Star Mariner)'s Avatar
    Join Date
    15th November 2011
    Language
    English
    Posts
    4,416
    Thanks
    29,345
    Thanked 35,633 times in 4,329 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Found this interesting, a precedent for this present lockdown 100 years ago.

    Name:  1919_2_influenza.jpeg
Views: 54
Size:  128.3 KB

    And also this, which is quite profound. There is nothing new under the sun, it is said. Couldn't agree more.

    Name:  1919_influenza.jpeg
Views: 55
Size:  96.2 KB
    "When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace."
    ~ Jimi Hendrix

  18. The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to Mark (Star Mariner) For This Post:

    Anka (1st May 2020), ClearWater (1st May 2020), DaveToo (5th May 2020), gini (1st May 2020), Luke Holiday (31st May 2020), XelNaga (28th May 2020)

  19. Link to Post #50
    Avalon Member
    Join Date
    3rd July 2018
    Posts
    4,392
    Thanks
    40,297
    Thanked 33,745 times in 4,372 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    How to manipulate a beholder's perspective...


    Telephoto-lens

    Wide angle

    https://static.boredpanda.com/blog/w...72653__700.jpg

  20. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Gwin Ru For This Post:

    Luke Holiday (31st May 2020), onevoice (4th May 2020), XelNaga (28th May 2020)

  21. Link to Post #51
    Avalon Member
    Join Date
    3rd July 2018
    Posts
    4,392
    Thanks
    40,297
    Thanked 33,745 times in 4,372 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Del Bigtree – Dr. Erickson

    The HighWire with Del Bigtree
    119K subscribers

    CENSORED DOC DOUBLES DOWN
    Dr. Daniel Erickson, owner of seven CA urgent care facilities, was thrown into the spotlight after his press conference on the COVID 19 stirred up enough controversy to get censored by YouTube. Here’s Del’s follow-up interview and this doc’s message is clear: he is not backing down. #CensoredDocs

  22. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Gwin Ru For This Post:

    Ernie Nemeth (2nd May 2020), Luke Holiday (2nd May 2020)

  23. Link to Post #52
    United States Avalon Member
    Join Date
    1st April 2016
    Posts
    4,400
    Thanks
    17,201
    Thanked 21,933 times in 4,050 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Red is the reality in Sweden, compared to Ferguson's computer modeling:






    As of today, Sweden, which has a population of roughly 10.5 million, has recorded 21,092 cases and 2,586 fatalities from COVID-19, that’s roughly 256 deaths per million people.

    Assume a million people evenly-distributed in a sphere, with exactly one standard atmosphere of pressure and relative humidity 65%.

    I mean, when you compare it to Scnadinavia, Freetown is not Svalbard, and 1/3 of Sweden's nursing homes that we know are effected were not at the cafe'. You can, tangibly, say there's 2500-ish over there who had flu-like symptoms, but there aren't really these ideal samples of "a million" and so forth as charts suggest. It's all clusters of different areas which are very specific, not evenly-spread like icing on a cake.

    Even without much legal force, though, their business capacity is running at something like 20%, and it is reasonable to say that "opening" any shut-down place will not "open" anything, because if people remain somewhat cautious, no one is likely to want to go out in bigger numbers than is seen in Sweden.

    I certainly don't see them being felled like a tree due to a relaxed policy, but, it is possible the public as a whole is not going to do much any time soon, anywhere, out of their own inhibition.

  24. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to shaberon For This Post:

    ClearWater (4th May 2020), Gwin Ru (5th May 2020), Luke Holiday (8th May 2020), onevoice (4th May 2020)

  25. Link to Post #53
    Avalon Member
    Join Date
    3rd July 2018
    Posts
    4,392
    Thanks
    40,297
    Thanked 33,745 times in 4,372 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Lockdown Stockholm Syndrome: Loving economic destruction and loss of liberty

    Rob Slane The Blogmire
    Sun, 03 May 2020 17:11 UTC


    Stockholm Syndrome:
    A condition in which hostages develop a psychological alliance with their captors during captivity.

    Lockdown Stockholm Syndrome:
    A psychological state of mind that causes its sufferers to come to love seeing their economies and liberties being destroyed, whilst simultaneously being incapable of accepting that Sweden kept its society going without resorting to such measures.
    I continue to be baffled by those who cannot bring themselves to admit that Sweden has carried out a relatively sensible policy on Covid-19, whilst the response of so many other countries has been authoritarian and frankly unhinged. The idea of quarantining millions of perfectly healthy people and stopping them from doing normal, healthy things is something that has apparently never occurred to any national leaders in the past, or at least if it did, they presumably never enacted it for fear of revolt.

    No such fear today. It is simply staggering to see how so many people have not only come to
    accept the inevitable destruction of the economy and curtailment of civil liberties as a price worth paying to deal with an illness which is killing numbers on roughly the same levels as a bad flu season, but have actually become cheerleaders for the giant social experiment being done to them. It reminds me of the chilling and dispiriting line at the end of 1984: "He loved Big Brother." Today, for reasons that are not at all clear to me, many appear to "Love Lockdown" — that is, they appear to be absolutely fine with having their liberties taken away from them; absolutely fine with having the right to do lawful work taken from them; and absolutely fine with having the right to do normal, healthy things taken away from them. If anyone has an explanation, do be sure to let me know.

    But it gets worse. Not only do they seem to be perfectly willing to go along with these things, but they are appear to be utterly oblivious and even apathetic to the economic train wreck headed their way because of the policy they support. Why? What will shake them out of that apathy and complacency? Will it be when they hear about the Great Depression-era unemployment levels coming on us? No! Even that doesn't do it. The chart below is one of the most genuinely frightening I've ever seen, showing as it does US unemployment rising by over 30,000,000 in just seven weeks to levels not seen since the 1930s. And yet when I show it, many just airily dismiss it with a shrug of the shoulders as if it's irrelevant. Perhaps it will only be if they lose their own jobs and can't pay the rent or can't get stuff in the shops like they used to that it'll hit home! Who knows?

    If you try to show such people that it didn't have to be this way, comparing the UK with Sweden, or Sweden with other countries, or Sweden with what the Imperial College model might have predicted, they either dismiss it, or get angry, or ignore it. It's a thought they don't want to entertain, presumably because they have thoroughly convinced themselves that "lockdown" is the only policy that can possibly work, and any data that shows that this is not the case must either be wrong or ignored (for those who want to see a real expert thoroughly debunk the idea that lockdown was or is necessary, I recommend this interview with Professor Knut Wittkowski).

    Despite studying the data for a number of weeks,
    I have yet to find any discernible evidence that the Swedish policy has hurt that country in anything like the way the doom-mongers predicted. Just as importantly, I have been unable to find any discernible evidence that destroying your economy and wrecking civil liberties — which is what the policy of "lockdown" is — was necessary.

    For instance, the chart below shows two countries with a very different policy — Sweden and the UK — by daily deaths per million population (note, the UK figures are somewhat skewed on 29th April, as the Government decided to count deaths in care homes on that day ((extraordinary that these were missed off before)).
    What is actually clear is that Sweden has in fact fared better than the UK, with total recorded deaths at 256.6 per million, compared to 419.1 per million for the UK, as at 3rd May:
    Or we could look at weekly recorded deaths for 13 European countries, plus the US. Interestingly, in all cases (except the UK because of that care home spike on 29th April), the numbers of deaths are now clearly falling and — it would seem — beginning to peter out — including Sweden:


    Or here's a cumulative way of looking at the same data:
    What I have noticed, however, is the more Sweden's figures have failed to shoot up into the stratosphere, the more some people have ground their teeth, digging in and claiming that because Sweden's death numbers are worse than Denmark's, Finland's and Norway's, this somehow proves the point that they messed up big time. Does it? Here's another way of looking at it.

    As of today, the country has seen just short of 2,700 deaths. This is:

    • Approximately 265.62 deaths per million population
    • Approximately 0.0265% of their entire population.
    This is not even close to what the doom-mongers were predicting. My own very conservative estimate of what Imperial College's model might have predicted for them, under the measures they have taken, came out at approximately 32,500 deaths (approximately 3,250 deaths per million). However, a study carried out by Sweden's Uppsala University in April applied the Imperial College model to Sweden and came out with far bigger numbers than my conservative estimate. According to their projections, if Sweden continued its current response:
    • It would pass 40,000 deaths shortly after 1st May
    • This would continue to rise to almost 100,000 deaths by June.
    But let me again remind you: so far, Sweden has had just under 2,700 deaths, and we've now passed 1st May. That's many orders of magnitude below what the Imperial College model would have predicted for it.

    I think we can safely say (if we didn't know it already) that the Imperial College model overestimated deaths from Covid-19 by a huge margin. Bit like their estimates for Mad Cow Disease. And Swine Flu. And H5N1 Bird Flu. In fact, perhaps the question we should ask is if anyone knows of an instance when Neil Ferguson's team have got their predictions right — or at least within say a few tens of thousands at least?

    And yet here's the thing: not only is the UK Government's draconian policy
    based on these faulty predictions, but many have taken to these draconian measures based on faulty so-called science like ducks to water. I find it extraordinary. I'd love to know why. Any one?

    Related:

  26. The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to Gwin Ru For This Post:

    cascadian (5th May 2020), DaveToo (8th May 2020), greybeard (5th May 2020), Luke Holiday (8th May 2020), Philippe (31st May 2020), shaberon (8th May 2020), XelNaga (28th May 2020)

  27. Link to Post #54
    United States Avalon Member
    Join Date
    1st April 2016
    Posts
    4,400
    Thanks
    17,201
    Thanked 21,933 times in 4,050 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Sweden's 2,700 deaths looked like a surge at first compared to here, but I don't think it is; yes, if it went anywhere near the "predicted 40,000" it would look differently.

    Nothing has changed here, it is very linear, it has neither skyrocketed or slacked off. Although we haven't quite reached Sweden's numbers, I don't think it shows anything spectacular. We got a local surge of at least a hundred cases "at large", or outside of the nursing homes, but it's not really doing anything. Comparatively, in south Georgia, which is mostly black people but way more rural than here, they are getting clobbered, or, at least, there are fatalities. So the simple fact of rural areas certainly does not prevent spread.

    The whole thing will wash out since "wave two" comes at any point in time, but, we can pretty much promise that each step taken to "re-open" the U. S. is not going to be reversed, it will not shut down again no matter what. Other countries may be different.

  28. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to shaberon For This Post:

    greybeard (8th May 2020), Gwin Ru (8th May 2020), Luke Holiday (31st May 2020)

  29. Link to Post #55
    United States Avalon Retired Member
    Join Date
    15th January 2018
    Location
    Arizona
    Language
    English
    Posts
    538
    Thanks
    911
    Thanked 2,145 times in 461 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    https://www.newsweek.com/japan-ends-...ckdown-1506336

    Japan is also a country without 5 g, although it appears 5 G will fully operation very soon - so now we will see....

    https://venturebeat.com/2020/03/23/j...cs-face-delay/


    Blessings Luke

  30. The Following User Says Thank You to Luke Holiday For This Post:

    Philippe (31st May 2020)

  31. Link to Post #56
    United States Avalon Retired Member
    Join Date
    15th January 2018
    Location
    Arizona
    Language
    English
    Posts
    538
    Thanks
    911
    Thanked 2,145 times in 461 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    and resolution we failed to affect
    The Flat Curve Society
    Tim Stickings 24 May 20 2890



    69
    Shares
    69

    Source JP Morgan: https://www.anti-empire.com/lockdown...-morgan-study/



    Coronavirus lockdowns have failed to alter the course of the pandemic but have instead ‘destroyed millions of livelihoods’, a JP Morgan study has claimed.

    Falling infection rates since lockdowns were lifted suggest that the virus ‘likely has its own dynamics’ which are ‘unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures’, a report published by the financial services giant said.

    Denmark is among the countries which has seen its R rate continue to fall after schools and shopping malls re-opened, while Germany’s rate has mostly remained below 1.0 after the lockdown was eased.

    The report also shows many US states including Alabama, Wisconsin and Colorado enjoying lower R rates after lockdown measures were lifted.

    Author Marko Kolanovic, a trained physicist and a strategist for JP Morgan, said governments had been spooked by ‘flawed scientific papers‘ into imposing lockdowns which were ‘inefficient or late’ and had little effect.

    ‘Unlike rigorous testing of new drugs, lockdowns were administered with little consideration that they might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than Covid-19 itself,’ he claimed.

    The JP Morgan report includes graphs showing that ‘the vast majority of countries had decreased infection rates’ after lockdowns were lifted.

    Infection rates have continued to decline even once a lag period for new infections to become visible is factored in, the report says.


    A second graph shows a similar effect in the US, showing that many states saw a lower rate of transmission (R) after full-scale lockdowns were ended.

    They included Colorado, Iowa, Alabama, Wyoming, Wisconsin and Mississippi, according to the chart, although not all states are included.

    Nevada and North Dakota are among the exceptions which appear to have had a higher rate of transmission since normal life began to resume.

    The R rate shows how many people each virus patient typically infects, and some countries regard a rate below 1.0 as a key indicator that the epidemic is in retreat.
    ‘While we often hear that lockdowns are driven by scientific models, and that there is an exact relationship between the level of economic activity and the spread of [the] virus – this is not supported by the data,’ the report says.

    ‘Indeed, virtually everywhere infection rates have declined after re-opening even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.

    ‘This means that the pandemic and Covid-19 likely have [their] own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented.’
    Those dynamics may be influenced by increased hand-washing and even weather patterns but seemingly not by full-scale lockdowns, the report suggests.

    ‘The fact that re-opening did not change the course of the pandemic is consistent with studies showing that initiation of full lockdowns did not alter the course of the pandemic either,’ it says.

    An Oxford University professor has previously suggested that the crisis in Britain began falling from its peak before Boris Johnson ordered a lockdown on March 23.
    Professor Carl Heneghan said last month that the peak of new cases had come on April 8, suggesting a peak of infection three weeks earlier around March 18.

    The JP Morgan analysis linked the decision to impose lockdowns to ‘flawed scientific papers’ predicting millions of deaths in the West.

    ‘This on its own was odd, given that in China there were only several thousand deaths, and the mortality rate outside of Wuhan was very low,’ it says.

    ‘In the absence of conclusive data, these lockdowns were justified initially. Nonetheless, many of these efforts were inefficient or late.’

    In some European countries, studies suggest that the measures ‘did not produce any change in pandemic parameters’ such as the R rate, the JP Morgan report says.
    Kolanovic says that lockdowns had remained in place even as ‘our knowledge of the virus and lack of effectiveness of total lockdowns evolved’.

    ‘At the same time, millions of livelihoods were being destroyed by these lockdowns,’ he writes.

    Countries in lockdown are having to blow huge holes in their budgets to counter the economic standstill which is forcing millions of people into unemployment.

    The report also cites ‘worrying populism’ as an obstacle to re-opening the economy, for example in the US where senators passed an anti-China measure this week.

    It warns that economic activity in the US is ‘now largely following partisan lines’ as Republican and Democratic governors adopt different strategies for their states.

    As well as casting doubt on the wisdom of imposing lockdowns in the first place, the report suggests that economies could now be re-opened more quickly.

    Denmark is among the countries which has started re-opening its economy without seeing a new surge in virus cases.

    Zoos, museums and cinemas have re-opened early in Denmark with many children now back at school after scientists said the R rate had continued to fall.

    Germany has also been confident enough to scale back the lockdown after the R rate mostly stayed below 1.0 following an initial lifting of restrictions.

    However, chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly urged caution and warned that a second wave of virus cases could leave hospitals overwhelmed.

    The UK government has similarly warned that some restrictions could be re-imposed if there is a ‘sudden and concerning’ rise in new cases.

    The World Health Organisation has urged ‘extreme vigilance’ about lifing lockdowns, saying there is ‘always the risk that the virus takes off again’.

    WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that some countries such as Germany and South Korea had systems in place to respond to a new surge.
    However, Britain’s efforts to set up a tracking and tracing system have been hampered by delays in rolling out the necessary app.

    Tedros said that a ‘comprehensive package of measures’ is needed until a vaccine becomes available, which is likely to be many months away at least.

    It is not yet fully clear how many people have been infected or to what extent they are now immune, but most people remain susceptible.
    Some vaccine projects have already begun testing humans, including at Oxford University.

    Up to 1,102 participants have been recruited across multiple study sites in Oxford, Southampton, London and Bristol, although results are not expected for weeks.
    Imperial College London is also progressing with its vaccine candidate and will look to move into clinical trials by mid-June, with larger scale trials in October.
    However, experts and politicians warn there is no guarantee that an effective vaccine will ever be developed.

    Even if it is, there are concerns about how it will be distributed in large enough quantities to bring the pandemic to a standstill.


    This debate should now be over: conclusions are clear: Lockdowns were useless, facemasks are a shame, acquiescing to a vaccine from Bill Gates is insane, the CV 19 tests are useless, and CV 19 contagiousness/lethality has been proven equal to that of seasonal flu...etc.. (I could go on...) There is only one conclusion - this is a scam/plandemic designed to fulfill eliteist's agenda's....

    ...Now the question remains...what are we going to do about it


    Blessings

    Luke
    Last edited by Luke Holiday; 26th May 2020 at 19:58.

  32. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Luke Holiday For This Post:

    DeDukshyn (28th May 2020), greybeard (26th May 2020)

  33. Link to Post #57
    Canada Avalon Member DeDukshyn's Avatar
    Join Date
    22nd January 2011
    Location
    From 100 Mile House ;-)
    Language
    English
    Age
    50
    Posts
    9,394
    Thanks
    29,778
    Thanked 45,452 times in 8,541 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Source link for the above article cited?

    Edit: Thanks for adding that ... I shared the original article to FB.
    Last edited by DeDukshyn; 28th May 2020 at 17:22.
    When you are one step ahead of the crowd, you are a genius.
    Two steps ahead, and you are deemed a crackpot.

  34. Link to Post #58
    Avalon Member
    Join Date
    3rd July 2018
    Posts
    4,392
    Thanks
    40,297
    Thanked 33,745 times in 4,372 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    “It’s all Bullsh*t” – 3 Leaks that Sink the Covid Narrative

    In recent days a series of leaks across the globe have further shown the “official line” on coronavirus does not hold water

    Kit Knightly



    The science of the coronavirus is not disputed. It is well documented and openly admitted:
    • Most people won’t get the virus.
    • Most of the people who get it won’t display symptoms.
    • Most of the people who display symptoms will only be mildly sick.
    • Most of the people with severe symptoms will never be critically ill.
    • And most of the people who get critically ill will survive.
    This is borne out by the numerous serological studies which show, again and again, that the infection fatality ratio is on par with flu.

    There is no science – and increasingly little rational discussion – to justify the lockdown measures and overall sense of global panic.

    Nevertheless, it’s always good to get official acknowledgement of the truth, even if it has to be leaked.

    Here are three leaks showing that those in power know that the coronavirus poses no threat, and in no way justifies the lockdown that is going to destroy the livelihoods of so many.

    1. “It’s all bull****!”
    On May 26th Dr Alexander Myasnikov, Russia’s head of coronavirus information, gave an interview to former-Presidential candidate Ksenia Sobchak in which he apparently let slip his true feelings.

    Believing the interview over, and the camera turned off, Myasnikov said:
    It’s all bull**** […] It’s all exaggerated. It’s an acute respiratory disease with minimal mortality […] Why has the whole world been destroyed? That I don’t know,”
    2. “covid-19 cannot be described as a generally dangerous disease”
    According to an e-mail leaked to Danish newspaper Politiken, the Danish Health Authority disagree with their government’s approach to the coronavirus. They cover it in two articles here and here (For those who don’t speak Danish, thelocal.dk have covered the story too).

    There’s a lot of interesting information there, not least of which is the clear implication that politicians appear to be pressing the scientific advisors to overstate the danger (they did the same thing in the UK), along with the decision of some civil servants to withhold data from the public until after the lockdown had been extended.

    But by far the most important quote is from a March 15th e-mail [our emphasis]:
    The Danish Health Authority continues to consider that covid-19 cannot be described as a generally dangerous disease, as it does not have either a usually serious course or a high mortality rate,”
    On March 12th the Danish parliament passed an emergency law which – among many other things – decreased the power of the Danish Health Authority, demoting it from a “regulatory authority” to just an “advisory” one.
    3. “A Global False Alarm”
    Earlier this month, on May 9th, a report was leaked to the German alternate media magazine Tichys Einblick titled “Analysis of the Crisis Management”.

    The report was commissioned by the German department of the interior, but then its findings were ignored, prompting one of the authors to release it through non-official channels.

    The fall out of that, including attacks on the authors and minimising of the report’s findings, is all very fascinating and we highly recommend this detailed report on Strategic Culture (or read the full report here in German).

    We’re going to focus on just the reports conclusions, including [our emphasis]:
    • The dangerousness of Covid-19 was overestimated: probably at no point did the danger posed by the new virus go beyond the normal level.
    • The danger is obviously no greater than that of many other viruses. There is no evidence that this was more than a false alarm.
    • During the Corona crisis the State has proved itself as one of the biggest producers of Fake News.
    After being attacked in the press, and suspended from his job, the leaker and other authors of the report released a joint statement, calling on the government to respond to their findings.
    *
    If the current crisis was being approached rationally by all parties, these leaks would seal the debate.

    Evidence is piling up that the people in charge knew, from the very beginning, that the virus was not dangerous.

    The question remaining is: Why are these leaks happening now?

  35. The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to Gwin Ru For This Post:

    fractal being (31st May 2020), greybeard (31st May 2020), Luke Holiday (31st May 2020), Philippe (31st May 2020), Sue (Ayt) (31st May 2020)

  36. Link to Post #59
    United States Avalon Retired Member
    Join Date
    15th January 2018
    Location
    Arizona
    Language
    English
    Posts
    538
    Thanks
    911
    Thanked 2,145 times in 461 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Quote Posted by Gwin Ru (here)
    “It’s all Bullsh*t” – 3 Leaks that Sink the Covid Narrative

    In recent days a series of leaks across the globe have further shown the “official line” on coronavirus does not hold water

    Kit Knightly



    The science of the coronavirus is not disputed. It is well documented and openly admitted:
    • Most people won’t get the virus.
    • Most of the people who get it won’t display symptoms.
    • Most of the people who display symptoms will only be mildly sick.
    • Most of the people with severe symptoms will never be critically ill.
    • And most of the people who get critically ill will survive.
    This is borne out by the numerous serological studies which show, again and again, that the infection fatality ratio is on par with flu.

    There is no science – and increasingly little rational discussion – to justify the lockdown measures and overall sense of global panic.

    Nevertheless, it’s always good to get official acknowledgement of the truth, even if it has to be leaked.

    Here are three leaks showing that those in power know that the coronavirus poses no threat, and in no way justifies the lockdown that is going to destroy the livelihoods of so many.

    1. “It’s all bull****!”
    On May 26th Dr Alexander Myasnikov, Russia’s head of coronavirus information, gave an interview to former-Presidential candidate Ksenia Sobchak in which he apparently let slip his true feelings.

    Believing the interview over, and the camera turned off, Myasnikov said:
    It’s all bull**** […] It’s all exaggerated. It’s an acute respiratory disease with minimal mortality […] Why has the whole world been destroyed? That I don’t know,”
    2. “covid-19 cannot be described as a generally dangerous disease”
    According to an e-mail leaked to Danish newspaper Politiken, the Danish Health Authority disagree with their government’s approach to the coronavirus. They cover it in two articles here and here (For those who don’t speak Danish, thelocal.dk have covered the story too).

    There’s a lot of interesting information there, not least of which is the clear implication that politicians appear to be pressing the scientific advisors to overstate the danger (they did the same thing in the UK), along with the decision of some civil servants to withhold data from the public until after the lockdown had been extended.

    But by far the most important quote is from a March 15th e-mail [our emphasis]:
    The Danish Health Authority continues to consider that covid-19 cannot be described as a generally dangerous disease, as it does not have either a usually serious course or a high mortality rate,”
    On March 12th the Danish parliament passed an emergency law which – among many other things – decreased the power of the Danish Health Authority, demoting it from a “regulatory authority” to just an “advisory” one.
    3. “A Global False Alarm”
    Earlier this month, on May 9th, a report was leaked to the German alternate media magazine Tichys Einblick titled “Analysis of the Crisis Management”.

    The report was commissioned by the German department of the interior, but then its findings were ignored, prompting one of the authors to release it through non-official channels.

    The fall out of that, including attacks on the authors and minimising of the report’s findings, is all very fascinating and we highly recommend this detailed report on Strategic Culture (or read the full report here in German).

    We’re going to focus on just the reports conclusions, including [our emphasis]:
    • The dangerousness of Covid-19 was overestimated: probably at no point did the danger posed by the new virus go beyond the normal level.
    • The danger is obviously no greater than that of many other viruses. There is no evidence that this was more than a false alarm.
    • During the Corona crisis the State has proved itself as one of the biggest producers of Fake News.
    After being attacked in the press, and suspended from his job, the leaker and other authors of the report released a joint statement, calling on the government to respond to their findings.
    *
    If the current crisis was being approached rationally by all parties, these leaks would seal the debate.

    Evidence is piling up that the people in charge knew, from the very beginning, that the virus was not dangerous.

    The question remaining is: Why are these leaks happening now?

    Thank you for this Great article articulating/validating what I and am many other's intuitively and observationally have come to realize about the CV crisis:

    To Further clarify my belief:

    Global financial elites, knowing the current global financial system that they created was unsustainable, have Engineered this crisis as a harbinger to a new/planned financial system : highlighted by Orwellian societal AI controls.

    In order to implement the new system the old one has to be destroyed and in order to accomplish this the old system must collapse with the global population battered, weakened, and divided in order for the new system to be successfully implemented.


    Blessings Luke
    Last edited by Luke Holiday; 31st May 2020 at 18:45. Reason: yes It is all BULL****E!!!

  37. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Luke Holiday For This Post:

    greybeard (31st May 2020), Gwin Ru (31st May 2020), Philippe (31st May 2020)

  38. Link to Post #60
    Scotland Avalon Member greybeard's Avatar
    Join Date
    17th March 2010
    Location
    Inverness-----Scotland
    Language
    English
    Age
    78
    Posts
    13,356
    Thanks
    32,618
    Thanked 68,863 times in 11,839 posts

    Default Re: Lockdown vs Non-lockdown: A statistical perspective

    Good on youLuke.
    In the supermarket today an employee asked me what I thought of the situation I said "Its all hype"
    That started a torrent of information -- surprised me the depth of his knowledge.
    He spoke of a financial reset. Said it had been attempted before --last recession.
    Now I dont understand how that could be done or what it entails.
    Perhaps some one could enlighten me --any volunteers --Luke -smiling.
    It might be an idea for another thread.
    Chris
    Be kind to all life, including your own, no matter what!!

+ Reply to Thread
Page 3 of 6 FirstFirst 1 3 6 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts