Posted by Flash
Icecold, allow me to hijack your writing on one of the other threads, on topics unrelated to this one. It can help to explain so much in my opinion.
Please bare with me with this long post, there is a logic throughout that has to be explained.
For those that love Charles, I am in for a real blasting here, so please, replace Charles by the 33, in case he was truly genuine as you may believe. It is the principles that matter here, not the persons. The following is, in my view, for the welfare of us all.
It goes as follows:
Re: Chemtrail pilot talks
What happened to the thread??????
Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses regardless of whether the information is true.
As a result, people gather evidence and recall information from memory selectively, and interpret it in a biased way. The biases appear in particular for emotionally significant issues and for established beliefs. For example, in reading about gun control, people usually prefer sources that affirm their existing attitudes. They also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position.
Biased search, interpretation and/or recall have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a stronger weighting for data encountered early in an arbitrary series) and illusory correlation (in which people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations).
A series of experiments in the 1960s suggested that people are biased towards confirming their existing beliefs. Later work explained these results in terms of a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and ignoring alternatives. In combination with other effects, this strategy can bias the conclusions that are reached. Explanations for the observed biases include wishful thinking and the limited human capacity to process information. Another proposal is that people show confirmation bias because they are pragmatically assessing the costs of being wrong, rather than investigating in a neutral, scientific way.
Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. Hence they can lead to disastrous decisions, especially in organizational, military, political and social contexts.
Now a little history:
Charles/33 come in somewhere last August or even prior in Bill’s life. He/they presented himself/themselves as the destructor of Avalon, and of Bill in his physical body – following Kerry, Bill still has death threats. The destructor, Charles, has a change of heart – having had his life spared thanks to Bill - and won’t do the job given to him.
This could (speculation here) only means he won’t kill him, because he owes him that much. Therefore, he and/or they 33, found a mean of doing the job while not having to make Bill disappear, by killing Avalon.
In the mind of paid “problem solvers” this is a great gift and a real change of heart, what Charles did. I do thank Charles for sparing Bill’s life.
Now, the best way to destroy something is through looking at its prey, its behaviour, habits, weaknesses and strengths, be it in commercial terms between competitors, in hunter’s terms during hunting season, or in a killer’s/33/destructors terms.
So, Avalon’ structure is analysed, Bill’s behaviour is analysed, and every important member of Avalon is analysed – through regular means, simple behavioural and structural studies (barely speculative, this is how it is done on a regular basis in ordinary businesses and more in depth by the army during wartime).
Other means – unknown to normal folks - may have been used to see the future potential of members and their impact on Avalon (speculation here).
Then measures are taken. And this with the outmost grace and pleasantness if it was coming from Charles. If you master the information and know how, why would you be unpleasant?
The measure taken will always start with the easiest, namely structures and behaviours. Here Icecold article comes in handy
]“people are biased towards confirming their existing beliefs”.
Furthermore, what will often be considered is in fact biased:
]“gather evidence and recall information from memory selectively, and interpret it in a biased way. The biases appear in particular for emotionally significant issues and for established beliefs” .
You can be absolutely sure about this. This is people’s basic behaviours. This is why change is so hard to achieve in families, organisations, societies or forums. As Carmody just mentioned in another thread, we are pre-wired to see in certain ways, to “lie to ourselves” for faster brain processing.
Now, was there any more emotionally significant issues for Bill and Richard than Avalon existence – which, standing alone, is quite an emotional issue. The answer is yes: Bill’s life, consciously or not, and Richard’s wife, consciously or not.
I explain: Bill has been threatened covertly or overtly for a while (see Kerry’s comments). Anybody in his place would feel edgy. This may cloud one’s reactions and behaviours.
On the other hand, the most interesting hitting point was Richard, he was holding the day to day aspects of the forum together. Get at him and be efficient, to make sure he holds a constant grudge, that will permeate even when the Avalon’s problem is resolved (meaning dead).
How do you do it? Here are some speculations, based of reading through the lines of Céline’s posts on Avalon: Through Richard’s weakest point, Céline. Be nice to Céline, make sure she feels like a potential saviour, an extraordinary women and hit when she is on the downside of manic disorder. She will pick on it.
Richard’s will feel edgy for the forum and for his wife at the same time (for losing her personally or through the illness), and he will make mistakes. Easy, just drive the guy crazy. Any other extra stress – which may have inadvertently been given by stressed out Bill or others, and there it is, mistakes in behaviours.
One of the main characteristic of manipulators is that they will end up having people do things that are entirely out of their natural make up
. Ex: Vincent Lacroix in Quebec who stole 30 millions$ from pension funds- his accountant is now in jail and he still does not understands how come he let this fraud go on, this was out of character for him, but he rots in jail, while Lacroix is basically out.
Following Icecold article, this:
“explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence)”.
In behavioural science, you can absolutely count on this.
What are the expected behaviours/desires we can count on here precisely:
INTEGRITY for one (established expected belief system, positive in open relationship, but usable if one wants destruction) –
POLARISATION – BITCHING for the other (expected behaviour when grudge/beliefs blindness holds).
Once the first results show up and the strategy is well implemented, the manipulators can leave, human behaviour will take over, this becomes automatic, pre-wiring and grudge doing the job.
Why do I bring this point: In my idea, anything still polarized
in this forum is the result of what went on previously.
When we continue, anyone of us, hammering this nail, we are pursuing the manipulation job already started by PTB and/or the 33 and/or Charles.
Furthermore, we can be assured that this will be tried again if the forum holds up. If we know how manipulation works, it will be easier to defeat.
When I deal with manipulators, one thing I do is to behave in unexpected ways. I behave and react in unexpected ways that are not in my basic temperament, in order to throw the manipulators off and have the time to recoup and strategize. This is difficult to do when one is basically straightforward and honest.
It took me literally 35 years to learn. Do I like it: NO. Do I have to do it? Usually not, I just leave. But I will do it if needed, while trying to hold love in my heart - these manipulators are only doing what they have learned, and it pays them well. And most manipulators are not aware of manipulating – not true for the trained ones.
Please, stop doing the manipulators jobs. Openly desiring integrity and transparency for example, in open relationships, is entirely fine and helpful. Doing the same in manipulative circumstances is naive and not helpful. IMHO.
Relaying suspicion, he said, she said, he said, and trashing anybody that have regular behaviour (sometimes without grandeur, but just human petiteness) in any way is doing the manipulator’s job, for him. How silly will we get?
This is why I was trying to mitigate what was said in some of my posts, and told some of you to rest. Rest, recoup and relaunch with open heart. Lets stop doing the destructive job started by manipulators and please move on to better areas of openness.
I really hope that Richard and Céline are reading this as well because I am sure they are fundamentally of good hearts, as Bill is as well, and that these behaviours could be stopped. Mourning is over, destruction happened, now lets move on. I also hope Bill reads it.
Lets go back to open, honest and working relationships and really define what is
for each one of us, and for us all.
Thanks to all for your patience at reading this long post, hopefully it will be helpful. Love to all.