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Thread: Sun Stuff: What's up!

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    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Sun Stuff: What's up!

    New thread to post info on the sun's activity.

    Old thread has been moved to Future Talk due to the nature of the OP RE: Boeing Whistleblower via Sickscent.

    I feel that we need this one here now.

    ¤=[Post Update]=¤

    After three days of hot sun activity, we have had an X-class sun flare tonight and it is Earth bound:



    Quote Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
    Serial Number: 71
    Issue Time: 2011 Sep 06 2247 UTC

    SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
    Begin Time: 2011 Sep 06 2212 UTC
    Maximum Time: 2011 Sep 06 2220 UTC
    End Time: 2011 Sep 06 2224 UTC
    X-ray Class: X2.1
    Optical Class: 2b
    Location: N14W18
    NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/arch...ent_month.html

    olarsoft has finally put it on their graphs....it came from Sunspot 1283 so it IS Earth Bound!

    http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
    Last edited by MorningSong; 7th September 2011 at 01:45.
    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    According to this simulation, the CME will just be glancing Earth around the 10th...




    Similar data from SpaceWeather,com:

    EARTH-DIRECTED FLARE: This morning at 0150 UT, sunspot 1283 produced an M5.3-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation:
    Because of the sunspot's central location on the solar disk, the eruption was Earth-directed--but is a CME heading our way? Around the time of the explosion, a number of plasma clouds were already billowing away from the sun, adding an element of confusion to the analysis. Tentatively, we expect Earth's magnetic field to receive a glancing blow from a CME on Sept. 8th or 9th. Stay tuned for updates.
    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
    “There is a condition worse than blindness, and that is, seeing something that isn't there.” LRH

    The psycho's utter terror: "This universe is entirely composed -- but for one trivial exception -- of others."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    SolarSoft says the M5 earlier today and the X2 a few hours ago are Earth bound.

    We shall see what happens.

    Proton Flux is up so something is already coming in:



    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html

    (Hey Amzer Zo! Tag! You're it! lol)
    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Thanks for the new gathering place in Solar Activity, MorningSong!
    Last edited by InTheBackground; 7th September 2011 at 02:17. Reason: Correcting typo caused by kitty's pesky paws, LOL

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Event#: 40

    EName: gev_20110906_2212

    Start: 2011/09/06 22:12:00

    Stop: 22:24:00

    Peak: 22:16:00

    GOES Class: X2.1

    Derived Position (SECCHI/EUVI (BEACON) N13W18
    or EIT High Cadence Wavelength) ( 1283 )

    Flare Locator Image

    Difference: AIA20110906_221403_0094.fits - AIA20110906_221203_0094.fits
    Last edited by Hervé; 7th September 2011 at 02:32.
    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
    “There is a condition worse than blindness, and that is, seeing something that isn't there.” LRH

    The psycho's utter terror: "This universe is entirely composed -- but for one trivial exception -- of others."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Very sharp increase:

    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
    “There is a condition worse than blindness, and that is, seeing something that isn't there.” LRH

    The psycho's utter terror: "This universe is entirely composed -- but for one trivial exception -- of others."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    One for Rocky and the whales:

    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
    “There is a condition worse than blindness, and that is, seeing something that isn't there.” LRH

    The psycho's utter terror: "This universe is entirely composed -- but for one trivial exception -- of others."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    News from Spaceweather.com:

    Quote X-FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have detected an X2-class solar flare from sunspot 1283. The explosion, which occured at 2220 UT on Sept. 6th, appears to have hurled a CME toward Earth. This is the second time today that sunspot 1283 has propelled a plasma cloud in our general direction (see also "Earth-directed Flare," below). Stay tuned for estimates of their arrival times. Solar flare alerts
    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

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    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Cool Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Last edited by giovonni; 7th September 2011 at 02:57.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Getting all these updating graphs on the first pages for quick reference...

    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
    “There is a condition worse than blindness, and that is, seeing something that isn't there.” LRH

    The psycho's utter terror: "This universe is entirely composed -- but for one trivial exception -- of others."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    HAARP magnetometer:





    Induction Magnetometer Bx:

    Last edited by Hervé; 10th September 2011 at 03:00. Reason: Induction Magnetometer Bx added
    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
    “There is a condition worse than blindness, and that is, seeing something that isn't there.” LRH

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    High energy protons:

    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
    “There is a condition worse than blindness, and that is, seeing something that isn't there.” LRH

    The psycho's utter terror: "This universe is entirely composed -- but for one trivial exception -- of others."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
    :Issued: 2011 Sep 06 2200 UTC
    # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
    # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
    #
    Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
    SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2011

    IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
    to 06/2100Z: Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1283
    (N14W18) produced an M5/1b flare at 06/0150Z associated with Types

    II and IV radio sweeps and an Earth-directed full-halo CME. The CME
    had an estimated speed of around 450 km/sec, based upon STEREO-A
    COR2 data, with the bulk of the ejecta directed north of the
    ecliptic plane. Region 1283 appeared to develop a magnetic delta
    configuration in its north-central portion and was classified as an
    Eai-type with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Old Region
    1286 (N20, L = 310) produced multiple CMEs from beyond the west
    limb, none of which were Earth-directed. New Region 1289 (N24E78)
    was numbered.

    IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
    moderate during the period (07 - 09 September) with more M-class
    flare activity likely from Region 1283.

    IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
    Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. Proton flux
    enhancements at greater than 100 MeV and greater than 10 MeV began
    around 06/0300Z at geosynchronous orbit in the wake of the M5 flare
    mentioned above.

    IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
    expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (07 - 09
    September). The halo-CME mentioned above is not expected to affect
    the field during the forecast period.

    III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
    Class M 60/60/60
    Class X 10/10/10
    Proton 10/10/10
    PCAF Green
    IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
    Observed 06 Sep 112
    Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 110/105/100
    90 Day Mean 06 Sep 098

    V. Geomagnetic A Indices
    Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 004/006
    Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 006/007
    Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005

    VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
    A. Middle Latitudes
    Active 10/10/10
    Minor storm 01/01/01
    Major-severe storm 01/01/01

    B. High Latitudes
    Active 15/15/15
    Minor storm 01/01/01
    Major-severe storm 01/01/01
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/RSGA.txt
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Elevated X-Ray flux:

    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
    “There is a condition worse than blindness, and that is, seeing something that isn't there.” LRH

    The psycho's utter terror: "This universe is entirely composed -- but for one trivial exception -- of others."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Link to see what the sun did on the 6th....the movie photograms end (and then repeats... slow it down to see better) as the X-flare was getting interesting:

    http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/seeds/da...10906&r&cor2=a
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!



    ¤=[Post Update]=¤

    Vertical TEC:

    Last edited by Hervé; 7th September 2011 at 03:50.
    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
    “There is a condition worse than blindness, and that is, seeing something that isn't there.” LRH

    The psycho's utter terror: "This universe is entirely composed -- but for one trivial exception -- of others."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Ok, I think I got most of all the relevant ones now...

    TEC:

    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
    “There is a condition worse than blindness, and that is, seeing something that isn't there.” LRH

    The psycho's utter terror: "This universe is entirely composed -- but for one trivial exception -- of others."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Auroral Activity has jumped up from Level 3 to Level 7 in just a few short hours.





    Click on "Recent Data Plots" to see the chronology.

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/
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    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Flares intensity:

    Last edited by Hervé; 8th September 2011 at 19:39.
    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
    “There is a condition worse than blindness, and that is, seeing something that isn't there.” LRH

    The psycho's utter terror: "This universe is entirely composed -- but for one trivial exception -- of others."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Solar-terrestrial activity:

    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
    “There is a condition worse than blindness, and that is, seeing something that isn't there.” LRH

    The psycho's utter terror: "This universe is entirely composed -- but for one trivial exception -- of others."

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