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Thread: Sun Stuff: What's up!

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    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Sunspot 1429 keeps wowing us: another M6.3 flare early this morning around 3:22 UTC.



    http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/lates...0309_0322.html

    From SIDC Presto Alert:

    Quote :Issued: 2012 Mar 09 1058 UTC
    roduct: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
    # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
    SOHO/LASCO detected a full halo CME in association with the M6.3 flare
    in Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) this morning. The CME first
    appeared in the LASCO C2 field of view at 04:14 UT and had a speed
    around 750 km/s. We expect the CME arrival at the Earth late on March 11
    - early on March 12. An evaluation of the possible erupting flux rope
    orientation on the basis of HMI photospheric magnetograms and AIA images
    of the post-eruption arcade gives the south-east-north (SEN,
    left-handed) configuration. Due to the position of the CME source region
    close to the solar central meridian, we expect a nearly central
    encounter of the resulting ICME, which will probably be a magnetic cloud
    with leading southward field. A strong geomagnetic storm (K = 7 or
    higher) is probable.
    http://www.sidc.be/products/presto/

    As you can see, the sunspot was facing Earth... the CME should be arriving within the next 48 hours.

    The Kp Index rose to 7 during the day and has now subsided to level 6. Middle lattitudes should be on the watch for auroras.



    http://hfradio.org/aurora_globe.html

    Vanuatu had a 6.7 EQ at 7:09 UTC.
    Last edited by MorningSong; 9th March 2012 at 15:59.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    One more M8.4 flare:



    http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

    From spaceweather.com:

    Quote WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. In New Mexico, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded a series of shortwave bursts emanating from the blast site: audio. Also, the explosion propelled yet another CME toward Earth: forecast track. The cloud is expected to hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th around 1800 UT. A CME from an earlier explosion will arrive much sooner, however. Continue reading.....

    INCOMING CME: A CME from sunspot AR1429 is nearing Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong geomagnetic storm at that time is 50%.

    The same eruption that hurled the CME toward Earth also produced a monsterous tsunami of plasma on the sun. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the shadowy but powerful wave rippling away from the blast site:

    The tsumani was about 100,000 km high and raced outward at 250 km/s with a total energy of about 2 million megatons of TNT. Such waves often underlie CMEs like the one en route to Earth now.

    Animated forecast tracks show that the CME will also hit the Mars Science Lab (MSL) spacecraft on March 12th followed by Mars itself on March 13th. Mars rover Curiosity onboard MSL might get some interesting readings as the cloud passes by.
    The Proton Flux is still quite high. From SIDC Presto Alert:

    Quote Latest issue

    :Issued: 2012 Mar 09 1455 UTC
    roduct: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
    # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
    The SEP event is still on-going, with proton fluxes at energies above
    10 and 50 MeV being above the 10 pfu event threshold. The SEP event is
    expected to continue for at least another 12 hours.
    Last edited by MorningSong; 10th March 2012 at 21:08.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    From spaceweather.com

    Quote CME IMPACT (MORE TO COME): An interplanetary shock wave buffeted Earth's magnetic field on March 11th at 11:59 UT. It was probably the first of two CMEs expected to arrive today. The impact did not spark a strong geomagnetic storm, but it did cause significantly elevated electron counts in Earth's outer radiation belt. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say that "spacecraft in orbits passing through or in the vicinity of Earth's outer radiation belt [could be affected]." Another CME is on the way (see below), so sky watchers should remain alert for auroras on March 11-12.


    SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE: Earth Directed M8.4-Class Solar Flare/CME (March 11th, 2012).

    "WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory."




    ^That´s the "normal", now the "weird".









    Source
    Last edited by Ineffable Hitchhiker; 11th March 2012 at 22:42. Reason: added video
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    As of yesterday around 13:00 UTC, the Earth has been affected by what looks like solar wind arriving from a coronal hole formation: V(km/s) was pretty stable around 450 although Density jumped quite abruptly:



    This activity continued until this morning when a sudden Geomagnetic Impule Shock was detected by ACE after 08:00 UTC.

    Quote Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
    Serial Number: 148
    Issue Time: 2012 Mar 12 0927 UTC

    SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
    Observed: 2012 Mar 12 0921 UTC
    Deviation: 96 nT
    Station: Boulder


    The Solar Wind jumped to near 600 km/s and a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse measuring 96 nT was detected.

    Although the Kp-index has remained in the 4 range for the past 12 hours, there is an alert of a possible increase to level 6, causing Geomagnetic Storming.

    Edti: This just transpired! (12:10 UTC)

    Quote Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
    Serial Number: 191
    Issue Time: 2012 Mar 12 1020 UTC

    WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
    Valid From: 2012 Mar 12 1020 UTC
    Valid To: 2012 Mar 12 1800 UTC
    Warning Condition: Onset
    NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
    This is what the Mag simulation looks like now:



    The Electron and Proton flux is still on a rollercoaster ride, up and down then up again.

    http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/elec_3d.html

    It appears that the misterious "dark" filament located on the SE edge of the sun lifted off around 1:00 UTC but should not be (they say) geoeffective:



    Flare activity has been quite mild, yet there is still a 40% chance of X-class flares, 80% chance for M-class flares from sunspot 1429 which has rotated to the western face of the sun. Two new sunspots have been numbered:

    Last edited by MorningSong; 12th March 2012 at 12:24.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Here's a video showing that black-sphere shooting off of the side of the sun!



    I feel like I should have posted this on one of the music threads. =)

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    G'day All,

    Just looking for any information on the March 12, 2012 event between 5.00 and 12.00 UT (that's when the Bz component went southwards for a long period).
    Appears that the magnetopause stand-off was pushed inside geosynchronous orbit for a short period but I'm having difficulty finding data on it.
    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon

    Update:
    Got these images from iSWA's 'Magnetopause position' tool:


    Last edited by panopticon; 13th March 2012 at 13:32.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Hi panopticon- Could you explain what that is, I have been looking at those ever since I have been watching all this sun stuff, but I don't have a clue what I am looking at with these diagrams. Thanks in advance.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    G'day starchild111,

    The Earth's magnetic field creates a protective region out into space (that's what helps stop the suns radiation from frying the Earth) that is called the 'magnetosphere'. In the images the sun is to the right (way out of image) and the blue/red/orange colours represent the magnetopause which is the spot where the sun's radiation and the Earth's magnetic field interact and move about. Kind of like the bow of a boat moving through water has a 'bow-wave'. The black lines represent the stand-off distance of the magnetopause boundary and shows where it moves from being the Sun's solar wind and the Earth's magnetosphere having the most effect. The dotted lines show where geosynchronous orbit is.

    In the images (and viewable at IPS Oz magnetopause model) the magnetopause stand-off distance moved inside geosync orbit and that can cause momentary problems for satellites (or major problems if conditions are severe).

    I am interested in the effect that repeated barrages of CME's have on the magnetosphere as well as the transit time decrease associated with this type of event.

    I hope that helped a bit in explaining what the images are about. It's all about where the Earth's magnetic fields influence ("magnetosphere" so I think "magnetic sphere of influence") and Sun's influence (solar wind, CME's, etc) interact and how that interaction moves closer and farther away from the Earth and satellites.
    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon

    Magnetosphere artist impression (courtesy wikipedia):


    Magnetopause:
    Last edited by panopticon; 13th March 2012 at 15:00.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Incoming M (????) flare!



    Quote GOES 15 X-Ray Events 1-8A
    Cur 13/1747 M7.7 Ratio 0.208
    Beg
    13/1712

    C3.4

    Max
    13/1741

    M7.9
    Int 1.1e-01 J m-2
    End
    ****

    ****
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

    Just saw the D-rap over the US and S. America turn from purple to bright red!

    Last edited by MorningSong; 13th March 2012 at 17:50.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Sunspot 1429 just gave a final(?) salutation flare: a M7.9er off the NWern limb starting at 17:12 UTC and peaking at 17:30.



    Immediately a proton/electron event was triggered on the sun-facing part of Earth and exhibited on the D-rap model.

    Alerts from SWPC:

    Quote Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
    Serial Number: 61
    Issue Time: 2012 Mar 13 1818 UTC

    WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
    Valid From: 2012 Mar 13 1817 UTC
    Valid To: 2012 Mar 14 0600 UTC
    Warning Condition: Onset
    Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

    Space Weather Message Code: ALTPC0
    Serial Number: 36
    Issue Time: 2012 Mar 13 1818 UTC

    ALERT: Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
    Begin Time: 2012 Mar 13 1817 UTC
    Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

    Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
    Serial Number: 781
    Issue Time: 2012 Mar 13 1746 UTC

    ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
    Begin Time: 2012 Mar 13 1715 UTC
    Estimated Velocity: 1366 km/s
    Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

    Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
    Serial Number: 169
    Issue Time: 2012 Mar 13 1727 UTC

    ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
    Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 13 1726 UTC
    NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
    Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.

    Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
    Serial Number: 351
    Issue Time: 2012 Mar 13 1726 UTC

    EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
    Extension to Serial Number: 350
    Valid From: 2012 Mar 13 0800 UTC
    Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 14 0600 UTC
    Warning Condition: Persistence
    Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
    Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by panopticon (here)
    G'day starchild111,

    The Earth's magnetic field creates a protective region out into space (that's what helps stop the suns radiation from frying the Earth) that is called the 'magnetosphere'. In the images the sun is to the right (way out of image) and the blue/red/orange colours represent the magnetopause which is the spot where the sun's radiation and the Earth's magnetic field interact and move about. Kind of like the bow of a boat moving through water has a 'bow-wave'. The black lines represent the stand-off distance of the magnetopause boundary and shows where it moves from being the Sun's solar wind and the Earth's magnetosphere having the most effect. The dotted lines show where geosynchronous orbit is.

    In the images (and viewable at IPS Oz magnetopause model) the magnetopause stand-off distance moved inside geosync orbit and that can cause momentary problems for satellites (or major problems if conditions are severe).

    I am interested in the effect that repeated barrages of CME's have on the magnetosphere as well as the transit time decrease associated with this type of event.

    I hope that helped a bit in explaining what the images are about. It's all about where the Earth's magnetic fields influence ("magnetosphere" so I think "magnetic sphere of influence") and Sun's influence (solar wind, CME's, etc) interact and how that interaction moves closer and farther away from the Earth and satellites.
    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon

    Magnetosphere artist impression (courtesy wikipedia):


    Magnetopause:

    Thank you so much for taking the time to explain, very helpful.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    According to Solarsoft... yesterday's M7.9 flare was produced by sunspot 1430, not 1429... both sunspots are very close to one another over on the western limb of the sun, but 1430 is just a tad farther west.... nonetheless, the flare did cause a bunch of alarms and warnings to go off, which is quite impressive in itself.

    Here's what spaceweather has to say:

    Quote STRONG FLARE, INCOMING CME: Departing sunspot AR1429 unleashed another strong flare on March 13th, an M7-class eruption that peaked around 1741 UT. Although the sunspot is no longer directly facing Earth, the blast will affect our planet. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say a CME is en route to Earth, and its impact on March 15th at 06:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) could trigger minor to moderate geomagnetic storms.


    Today around 15:08 UTC, sunspot 1432 produced a M2.8 flare. Because this sunspot is almost dead center of the sun, it will be geoeffective probably within the next 48-72 hours.



    What I'm wondering about is this (below) big flare this morning at the sun's north pole.... not reported anywhere I can find.. check if out at SOHO Movie theater.... a pretty big and prolonged ruckus!

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    panopticon,

    I tried to find more info for you, but I came up with mostly empty hands.... I view the same models you posted and have noticed the same that you point out.

    Here is another model of the bowshock/mag field, but it isn't all that great:

    http://pixie.spasci.com/DynMod/

    Let us know if you find more data and figure out how to decifer it.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    We do have another quite small sun-diviving comet in sight, again.

    Here's the news from spaceweather.com:

    Quote BRIGHT COMET DIVES INTO RADIATION STORM: A bright comet is diving into the sun. It was discovered just last week by SOHO's SWAN instrument, so it has been named "Comet SWAN." The comet's death plunge ( or "swan dive") comes just as the sun has unleashed a strong flare and radiation storm around Earth. SOHO images of the comet are confused to some degree by energetic protons striking the camera. Nevertheless, you can see Comet SWAN moving through the electronic "snow" in this updated 17 hour movie:



    This is a Kreutz sungrazer, a fragment of the same ancient comet that produced sungrazing Comet Lovejoy in Dec. 2011. According to comet expert Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab in Washington DC, "Comet SWAN is one of the brightest Kreutz-group comets ever observed by SOHO, although not quite as bright as Comet Lovejoy." Battams forecasts a peak magnitude of -1 for Comet SWAN, while Lovejoy was three magnitudes brighter at -4.

    Will Comet SWAN survive its plunge through the sun's atmosphere as Comet Lovejoy did? Probably not, but experts also said Comet Lovejoy would not survive, and they were happily wrong. Comet's SWAN's closest approach to the sun will likely come on March 14th. Stay tuned to Karl Battam's blog for updates.
    Below you can see it almost at destination on the last pict from Lasco 3:



    Will it cause a flare? Is is headed for the strange triangular coronal hole (some say "stargate"?)

    Check out the updates from Sungrazing Comets here:

    http://sungrazer.nrl.navy.mil/index....ws/SWAN-kreutz
    Last edited by MorningSong; 14th March 2012 at 21:20.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Sunspot 1432 gave off another M-class flare (1.8) today around 7:23 UTC. Lasco 3 has no photograms for viewing the event at the moment, but we can be sure the CME is headed towards earth:



    A geomagnetic suden impuse was observed at 13:09 UTC as a CME reached our planet, causing a new proton flux and sending the Kp-index up to 6.

    As for the sungrazer, it looks like it did not survive it's close encounter with the sun. From space weather:

    Quote COMET, DELETED: Sungrazing Comet SWAN, which dove into the sun's atmosphere during the late hours of March 14th, apparently did not survive. In the following 10 hour movie, Comet SWAN enters the solar corona but does not exit again:



    Comet SWAN was a Kreutz sungrazer, a fragment of the same ancient comet that produced sungrazing Comet Lovejoy in Dec. 2011. Comet Lovejoy famously survived its brush with the sun and put on a flamboyant show after it emerged from the solar fire. While Comet SWAN was cut from the same cloth, it was a smaller fragment that has completely evaporated.

    The CME emerging from the sun's northwestern limb near the end of the movie was not caused by this tiny comet's impact. It is just another eruption of active sunspot 1429.
    PS: I have observed several sun-divers whose impacts are followed by flares, and I just feel that the flare refered to above WAS caused by the comet....but until I can see the impact picts, I won't know....
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    saw the index up to 17 a bit ago, one after another...

    I smiled seeing the Sphere photo, we're getting closer to knowing, too many are watching for photos to appear more and more.

    are we having a warning about the upcoming nuclear war, that there is something much more powerful they are protecting us from, but they don't have to...

    Iran's leader and Obama, both wanting a peaceful resolution now, do they know something we don't?

    whistles innocently...

    hang on Skib...
    Coincidence or Destiny, it's all in the art of knowing.... III IIII charts ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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  33. Link to Post #357
    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Last night sunspot 1434 located in the SW Earth-facing quadrant produced a M1.3 flare althought GOES X-Ray flux doesn't show it overreaching the M-class level:



    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html

    Nothing is visible in lasco2....

    Here is the latest SWPC 3-day Solar Weather Forcast:

    Quote Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
    SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2012

    IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
    to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1435 (S26W37)
    grew rapidly overnight ending the period as a Dro type group with
    beta magnetic characteristics. Nearby Region 1434 (S22W27) produced
    an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 17/2039Z. This flare was accompanied
    by a Type II radio sweep (1140 km/s). A northward directed wave was
    visible in SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Region 1432 (N14W39), currently a
    Cro type group with beta magnetic characteristics, produced a C1
    flare at 17/0312, but was generally quiet overnight. New Region
    1437 (S34E15) was numbered today. It and the remaining regions were
    small, magnetically simple, and stable.

    IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
    with a chance for an isolated M-class flare all three days (18-20
    March), particularly from the vicinity of Regions 1434 and 1435.

    IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
    Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels with
    isolated minor to major storm levels observed at high latitudes.
    This activity was in response to the continued presence of a high
    speed solar wind stream. Solar wind speed, measured at the ACE
    spacecraft, remained around 650 km/s while Bz ranged between +5 and
    -5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
    reached high levels during the period.

    IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
    expected to begin at unsettled levels and increase to active to
    isolated minor storm levels on Day 1 (18 March) as a CME from 15
    March arrives. Activity levels are expected to be predominantly
    active on Day 2 (19 March), declining to unsettled levels on Day 3
    (20 March) as effects from the CME subside. Analysis of the M1/Sf
    flare is ongoing to determine if it was associated with an
    Earth-directed CME.

    III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
    Class M 30/30/30
    Class X 05/05/05
    Proton 05/05/05
    PCAF green

    IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
    Observed 17 Mar 102
    Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 100/100/105
    90 Day Mean 17 Mar 124

    V. Geomagnetic A Indices
    Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 017/021
    Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 013/016
    Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 018/025-015/020-008/010

    VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
    A. Middle Latitudes
    Active 40/30/05
    Minor storm 20/15/01
    Major-severe storm 05/01/01
    B. High Latitudes
    Active 15/15/15
    Minor storm 25/20/10
    Major-severe storm 35/25/05
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html
    Last edited by MorningSong; 18th March 2012 at 11:38.
    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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  35. Link to Post #358
    United States Avalon Member loc333's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    has anybody seen...youtube...nasa hiding data of magnetosphere reversal....16th of march data missing from everywhere except a japanese site (nirt?????) the reversal, i can see as a back lash from the x flare.. or the flare going past the magnetoshere.....but the hiding of information... thats what makes me nervous.

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  37. Link to Post #359
    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Hey loc333! I would be very interested in your source. The nict site has been off ( or at least I can't get into the data) since the 2 big EQs in japan the other day.

    This would be HUGE!
    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

  38. Link to Post #360
    United States Avalon Member loc333's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    hello morning song i couldnt do the link, god like productins video....search..nasa hiding data of magnetospere reversal... i tried to link the video but im an old dum dum

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