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Thread: Sun Stuff: What's up!

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    Finland Avalon Member Wind's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    A couple hours ago we had M5.5 solar flare, also earlier there were M1.5 and M1.0 flares yesterday and M1.2 one. Currently there are a few active looking sunspots on the sun.


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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Yes! Lots of activity on the sun! Sunspot 2673 came out of nowhere and has been popping off numerous M-flare these past few days - just in the past 24 hours there have been at least 10! (see http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/lates...028/index.html )

    From yesterday on spaceweather.com:
    Quote SUNSPOT UPDATE: Huge sunspot AR2673, which materialized with shocking speed over the weekend, is seething with activity. Today in Romania, solar photographer Maximilian Teodorescu captured this snapshot of plasma currents surging inside the sunspot's magnetic canopy--apparently on the verge of an explosion:



    "It's magnetic madness!" says Teodorescu. "What a complex and beautiful sunspot group!"

    AR2673 has already produced two M1-class solar flares on Sept.4th and a bigger explosion may be in the offing. Stay tuned.

    SUNSPOT SURPRISE: What a difference a day can make. On Saturday, Sept. 2nd, sunspot AR2673 was an unremarkable speck largely ignored by forecasters. On Sunday, Sept. 3rd, it underwent a furious transformation. Play this movie and watch what happens to the tiny sunspot:



    AR2673 expanded more than 10-fold in a single day, suddenly becoming one of the largest sunspots of the year. It has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. Any such explosion today would be geoeffective as the active region is directly facing Earth. Possible outcomes include moderately-strong shortwave radio blackouts, Earth-directed CMEs and geomagnetic storms later this week.

    Amateur astronomers with safely-filtered solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.
    The active region was facing head-on towards Earth, so we've been taking a beating magnetically speaking.

    There is still a 71% possibility for mor M-flares andf a 25% possibility for X-flares.

    As you can see from the D-rap graph in Wind's post above, there is an immense amount of ionization going on in our atmosphere.

    From spaceweather.com today:

    Quote A SOLAR STORM IS COMING: On Sept. 4th at approximately 2030 UT, active sunspot AR2673 hurled a CME toward Earth: movie. NOAA analysts are still modeling the cloud's trajectory. At first glance, the CME appears likely to reach our planet on Sept. 6th with the possibility of moderately strong (G2-class) geomagnetic storms when it arrives. Stay tuned for an updated forecast.
    Keep your tin foil hats handy!
    Last edited by MorningSong; 5th September 2017 at 09:11. Reason: fixed bad link
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    "When you've seen beyond yourself, then you may find, peace of mind is waiting there." ~ George Harrison

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    I'm still learning and have a question.

    Did I miss the chart with the speed and density that is usually displayed in these podcasts?

    It seems like a fast-moving CME, but how dense is it?
    “To develop a complete mind: Study the art of science; study the science of art. Learn how to see. Realize that everything connects to everything else” – Leonardo Da Vinci

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    PorcaPuzzola! We have had 2 X-flares this morning!



    The first was an X2.2 peaking at 9:10 UTC circa and the latest was an enormous X9.3 just in on the graphs peaking at 12.02 UTC!

    Presto Alert:

    Quote An X9.3 flare occurred peaking at 12:02UT.
    Awaiting confirmation, this flare most probably originated again from
    Catania group 46 (NOAA region 2673).
    More details will be provided when available.
    For the first X-flare, spaceweather was saying it was an M8.
    Belgium's Presto Alert said this:

    Quote An X2.2 flare has occurred peaking at 9:10UT originating from Catania group
    46 (NOAA AR 2673).
    (Magnitude and timing is based on NOAA/GOES13 measurements)
    More information will be provided when it becomes available.
    WOW!!!!!
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Holy moly! That's so cool! The strongest solar flare of this cycle it was, largest one in 12 years and also the 15th largest solar flare ever recorded.

    We will be under a major geomagnetic storm in a few hours, G3 class. Auroras will be seen especially in many northern places. Electrical equipment might be experiencing malfunctions soon if not already experiecing and I'm sure there have been already many radio blackouts.





    Last edited by Wind; 6th September 2017 at 20:26.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    We just had another X1 flare.

    Last edited by Wind; 8th September 2017 at 00:46.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    The major geomagnetic storm has just started. Kp index is at 8, that's pretty damn high.

    "Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon."


    Last edited by Wind; 8th September 2017 at 01:36.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by Wind (here)
    The major geomagnetic storm has just started. Kp index is at 8, that's pretty damn high.

    "Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon."


    Hi Wind,

    I live in Oregon where we have partial blue skies with smoke and haze. It is 7:10 pm and no Aurora's yet, but I'll let you know if we see any.

    Thanks for keeping us posted
    “To develop a complete mind: Study the art of science; study the science of art. Learn how to see. Realize that everything connects to everything else” – Leonardo Da Vinci

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    HF (short wave) radio conditions completely out on sunlit side of earth up to about 25 MHz from 0704 UTC for about 45 minutes due to solar flare. Bands so quiet I though my communications receivers were all broken!

    Therefore yet another CME due in 24 to 48 hours!

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    From those SO's

    Quote Posted by Star Tsar (here)
    Suspicious Observers News | The Sun and Storms | September 2017 Update



    I for one will join in with anyone, I don't care what color you are as long as you want to change this miserable condition that exists on this Earth - Malcolm X / Tsar Of The Star

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Our Sun has just released X8.3 flare!

    Last edited by Wind; 10th September 2017 at 23:54.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    A "see ya later" from complex sunspot 2673/2675...X8.9 peaking at 16:06 UTC:



    http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/lates...535/index.html

    The flare doesn't look like much here, and I'm surprised they even acknowledged it.....once susnspots turn that far away from the Earth-facing side they don't usually get much attention until they come back around on the other side. In fact, spaceweather.com had already said "bye-bye":

    Quote GOODBYE SUNSPOT, SEE YOU IN 2 WEEKS: Sunspot AR2673 materialized with shocking speed on Sept. 3rd. Three days later it unleashed the strongest solar flare in more than a decade, an X9.3-class eruption that hurled a CME directly at Earth. Now this memorable sunspot is about to disappear. Maximilian Teodorescu of Magurele, Romania, photographed it approaching the sun's western limb:



    "AR2673 is preparing for departure," says Teodorescu. "As it goes towards the limb its shape is distorted like the hot air distorts far away objects during the summer days."

    Later today, the sunspot will go around the bend, commencing a 2-week journey across the backside of the sun. Will it still be as potent when it reappears 14 days from now? Stay tuned for updates as the sun turns.
    Presto Alert:

    Quote Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) produced an X8.9 flare
    peaking at 16:06UT while at the western limb.
    Proton flux levels have been rising since, with >10 MeV as well as >100MeV
    proton fluxes passing the 10 pfu event threshold.
    Last edited by MorningSong; 10th September 2017 at 18:13.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    An audio/visual report from NM...

    Quote Posted by Star Tsar (here)
    Nemesis Maturity

    X8.2 Solar Flare & CME R3 Strong Radio Blackout In North & South America

    Published 10th September 2017

    An X8.2 X-Ray flare (R3-Strong radio blackout) occurred on 10 September at 1606 UTC (1206 ET). The source region was Region 2673, now located just around the visible disk. This R3 event produced a rapid increase in relativistic proton levels which are currently above the S2 (Moderate) threshold.
    Radio blackout in North & South America & West Africa.
    This event was just observed peaking at 16:06 UTC around region 2673, now located off the west limb. A Strong (G3) level radiation storm is now in progress as particles ejected outwards following the blast stream past Earth. Another massive coronal mass ejection (CME) is visible in STEREO imagery, but will be mostly directed towards the west.

    http://www.solarham.net/
    http://www.spaceweather.com/

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    I find the extreme proton event in act caused by yesterday's X8 quite allarming:



    I haven't seen anything like this in quite a few years. In fact it reminded me of some of the huge flares back around the autumn of 2003.

    A little history:

    In March of 1989 there was an X15 that was blamed for the crashing of the elctrical grid in Quebec, Canada. There isn't much data like we have today, so I have no picts of the flare or space after the flare.

    In April of 2001, there was an X20, and luckily the sunspot was not head-on with Earth. The CME didn't do much damage it seems.

    More recently, there was a huge flare and CME in 2003...initially. they tagged it with X28, then upped the values to X45. Here in Northern Italy, I saw the northern lights for the first time ever... amazing stuff!

    Quote Biggest ever solar flare was even bigger than thought

    Press Release From: American Geophysical Union
    Posted: Monday, March 15, 2004

    image WASHINGTON - Physicists in New Zealand have shown that last November's record-breaking solar explosion was much larger than previously estimated, thanks to innovative research using the upper atmosphere as a gigantic x-ray detector. Their findings have been accepted for 17 March publication in Geophysical Research Letters, published by the American Geophysical Union.

    On 4 November 2003, the largest solar flare ever recorded exploded from the Sun's surface, sending an intense burst of radiation streaming towards the Earth. Before the storm peaked, x-rays overloaded the detectors on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), forcing scientists to estimate the flare's size.

    Taking a different route, researchers from the University of Otago used radio wave-based measurements of the x-rays' effects on the Earth's upper atmosphere to revise the flare's size from a merely huge X28 to a "whopping" X45, say researchers Neil Thomson, Craig Rodger, and Richard Dowden. X-class flares are major events that can trigger radio blackouts around the world and long-lasting radiation storms in the upper atmosphere that can damage or destroy satellites. The biggest previous solar flares on record were rated X20, on 2 April 2001 and 16 August 1989.....
    http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=13844

    Here is a pict of the 2003 Earth-facing X45 flare:



    Note the slight concentration of the proton event after the flare:



    Now, just look at yesterday's flare:



    And now look at the proton particles above.

    Looks like we may have just barely avoided anothe "Kill Shot"....we'll see what the scientists say in the months to come as they review the data better.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    We are lucky... Or then there's a deeper intelligence behind all of that.

    Last edited by Wind; 11th September 2017 at 15:20.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by Wind (here)
    We are lucky... Or then there's a deeper intelligence behind all of that.

    I feel it's deeper
    “To develop a complete mind: Study the art of science; study the science of art. Learn how to see. Realize that everything connects to everything else” – Leonardo Da Vinci

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    During all this frenetic solar activity (and some of the reports were/are getting close to the Doom Porn category), how many people here have actually had any part of their lives affected by it? I don't mean perceived physical or psychological feelings, but actually experienced something not working properly directly due to solar activity?

    We keep being told the kill shot is imminent (and perhaps it is), but if you're not operating radio equipment in the 3MHz to 30MHz bands, and are not responsible for maintaining any satellite networks or power grids, what have you actually noticed? Some aurora at least I hope.
    Last edited by Nick Matkin; 12th September 2017 at 15:42.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    For all you sun watchers...take a good look at this important vid from SO!

    Thanks, Ben, for the confirmation....again!

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    "SOLAR WIND, INCOMING: NOAA forecasters say there is a 45% chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms on Jan. 20th when a stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a crescent-shaped hole in the sun's atmosphere. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend. Free: Aurora Alerts."



    Link:http://spaceweather.com/
    “To develop a complete mind: Study the art of science; study the science of art. Learn how to see. Realize that everything connects to everything else” – Leonardo Da Vinci

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