Sun Stuff: What's up!

[Roisin]

Today's Space Weather

Friday 24 October last updated 23/2330 UT

Moderate solar flare activity, with a chance of high activity from the large and magnetically complex sunspot group. Minor coronal hole effects possible. Moderate solar wind. Geomagnetic conditions at quiet to unsettled levels with the possibility of isolated active periods. Short-wave radio fadeouts possible. High-frequency radio communications normal to good.

[Fairy Friend]

Feeling hot and flushed. Wondering about another impulsive small M flare.

[MorningSong]

From spaceweather.com:

CHANCE OF FLARES: Giant sunspot AR2192 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate an 85% chance of M-class flares and a 45% chance of X-flares on Oct. 24th. If an explosion does occur, it will be geoeffective because the sunspot is directly facing Earth.

LOTS OF SOLAR FLARES: Solar activity is high. Since the week began, giant sunspot AR2192 has produced 27 C-class solar flares, 9 M-class flares, and 2 X-flares.

The most powerful eruption so far was an X1.6-category blast on Oct 22nd:

Remarkably, not one of the explosions so far has hurled a significant CME toward Earth. The primary effect of the flares has been to ionize Earth's upper atmosphere, causing a series of short-lived HF radio communications blackouts. Such blackouts may be noticed by amateur radio operators, aviators, and mariners.

Earth-effects could increase in the days ahead. AR2192 has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful explosions, and the active region is turning toward Earth. NOAA forecasters estimate a 85% chance of M-class flares and a 45% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

Because the sunspot is so large--now about as wide as the planet Jupiter--people are beginning to notice it at sunset when the sun is dimmed by clouds or haze....

[Fairy Friend]

We definitely have an X flare coming in.

[Rocky_Shorz]

Posted by Fairy Friend (here)
Odd I didn't get an alert either. Eclipse. Interesting picture.

great Halloween sun shot, didn't notice we had a filament swinging by us on top of the large spot

[MorningSong]

WOW!

[Roisin]

Honestly, it looks like it's going to explode.

[MorningSong]

From Presto Alert:

:Issued: 2014 Oct 24 2159 UTC
roduct: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) produced an X3.1 flare peaking at
21:41 UT. No SOHO/LASCO data is available for a moment to determine if an
associated CME occurred, but a preliminary inspection of the SDO/AIA data
indicates no coronal dimming, so the flare is probably confined. An update
will be provided as soon as more data become available.

http://www.sidc.be/products/presto/

From Solarsoft:

[3(C)+me]

Solar X-ray Flux
R3 (Strong) Radio Blackouts from Region 2192




Region 2192 produced an X1 (R3 - Strong) flare at 10:28 EDT (1428 UTC) on October 22nd. Further analysis will be conducted to determine if there is a CME associated with this event as imagery comes in. This region has produced 7 M-class (R1/R2 - Minor/Moderate) flares in the past 48 hours as well as an X1 flare on October 19th. So far none of the CMEs associated with these events are expected to be geoeffective, however, forecasters will keep an eye out for both CME activity and solar radiation storm possibility as the region approaches center disk. Stay tuned for updates.
http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/news...ts-region-2192
Latest issue
:Issued: 2014 Oct 24 2159 UTC
roduct: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) produced an X3.1 flare peaking at
21:41 UT. No SOHO/LASCO data is available for a moment to determine if an
associated CME occurred, but a preliminary inspection of the SDO/AIA data
indicates no coronal dimming, so the flare is probably confined. An update
will be provided as soon as more data become available.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
# #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #
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#----------------------------------------

[Fairy Friend]

Huge. Still going. I didn't get an alert. Huh?

[Fairy Friend]

Electrons are extremely high I wouldn't be surprised if people are feeling very floaty.

[Wind]

And yet it really isn't that strong flare... But still a beauty. Let's see if "he" decides to unleash more soon. My Australian government mail alert stopped working yesterday for some reason, color me suspicious.

Major Solar Flare (X3.1)
Sunspot 2192 unleashed the sixth strongest solar flare of the current solar cycle, a major X3.1 event peaking at 21:40 UTC on Friday evening. Surprisingly, and disappointingly for some, the event looks to have failed to produce a noteworthy CME. Click HERE for the X3.1 event log.

[Fairy Friend]

Indeed odd, a sunspot that huge and complex wouldn't have surprise me to producing X 10 but it didn't. And extremely surprising that no huge cmes have happened. Turning away now so to speak. Still putting out energy.

[Sidney]

I too think it odd that no CMEs have popped from this flare.

[Rocky_Shorz]

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=UoPCLNcdK24

this swarm hit California's Supervolcano almost the same time as the X3 flare

Posted by Sidney (here)
I too think it odd that no CMEs have popped from this flare.

it has to shut off to explode out a CME, this is a continuous flaring sunspot, at least has been since the Mars/Sun comet discharge on the 19th

this time there was an explosion but it blew south after passing us...



all we have left to watch, is the growing magnetic filament facing us...

[Rocky_Shorz]

woah, just took a walk, feel like I'm glowing, there is another going on right now, nothing explosive...



energy inbound is dropping, like waves drawing back to join the next one racing inbound...

[MorningSong]

Yep... X1.0 from sunspot 2102 peaking at 17:08 UTC:

[Fairy Friend]

Putting out a lot of energy.

[Wind]

Why did the mail alert stopped working? That has never happened before so I have missed those flares.

[Bob]

you can also see the geometry forming in what would become coronal holes.. suspicion is the "hole" could be a polarity mirror for the active sunspots.. so i keep an eye on the "hole geometry".. when the holes open up the x-ray flux from the sunspots is augmented with proton streams.. Right now the solar wind is dropping as is particle count in the solar wind..

Posted by Rocky_Shorz (here)
woah, just took a walk, feel like I'm glowing, there is another going on right now, nothing explosive...
[..]

energy inbound is dropping, like waves drawing back to join the next one racing inbound...