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Thread: Sun Stuff: What's up!

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    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    To all sun watchers, take notice of this message I posted here:

    http://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...l=1#post910631


    Quote Coronal hole influence continues
    published: Tuesday, December 09, 2014 06:21 UTC

    The solar winds continue above 600 km/s as the effects from the southern polar coronal hole remain the predominant influence on the solar wind environment. From the looks of the latest WSA Enlil model run, the enhanced conditions are likely to continue for the next day or so, before slowly subsiding, returning to background conditions. G1-minor geomagnetic storm conditions are no longer expected. However, with the continued influence of the coronal hole high speed stream, there is still a chance for an isolated period near the G1-minor level.

    Stay tuned here for details.
    http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/news...ence-continues

    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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  3. Link to Post #2862
    Finland Avalon Member Wind's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    From spaceweather.com...

    Growing peril for astronauts?



    "According to the plot, in the year 2014, a 30 year old male flying in a spaceship with 10 g/cm2 of aluminum shielding could spend approximately 700 days in deep space before they reach their radiation dose limit. The same astronaut in the early 1990s could have spent 1000 days in space.

    What’s going on? Cosmic rays are intensifying. Galactic cosmic rays are a mixture of high-energy photons and subatomic particles accelerated to near-light speed by violent events such as supernova explosions. Astronauts are protected from cosmic rays in part by the sun: solar magnetic fields and the solar wind combine to create a porous ‘shield’ that fends off energetic particles from outside the solar system. The problem is, as the authors note, “The sun and its solar wind are currently exhibiting extremely low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing states that have never been observed during the Space Age. As a result of the remarkably weak solar activity, we have also observed the highest fluxes of cosmic rays in the Space Age.”

    This situation could become even worse if, as some researchers suspect, the sun is entering a long-term phase of the solar cycle characterized by relatively weak maxima and deep, extended minima. In such a future, feeble solar magnetic fields would do an extra-poor job keeping cosmic rays at bay, further reducing the number of days astronauts can travel far from Earth."

    What they didn't mention in the article was the fact that cosmic rays increase cloud cover which means more snow and cold continuing cooling in certain places...
    "Through our eyes, the universe is perceiving itself. Through our ears, the universe is listening to its harmonies.
    We are the witnesses through which the universe becomes conscious of its glory, of its magnificence." ~ Alan Watts

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  5. Link to Post #2863
    Finland Avalon Member Wind's Avatar
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    "Through our eyes, the universe is perceiving itself. Through our ears, the universe is listening to its harmonies.
    We are the witnesses through which the universe becomes conscious of its glory, of its magnificence." ~ Alan Watts

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    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Flares are increasing in frequency and level as a new (old) active region turns to the earth-facing position.

    Here's yesterday's report form SolarHam:

    Quote December 13, 2014 @ 15:45 UTC
    Solar Update / Moderate Activity
    Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Saturday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate with a number of C-Flares, and one M-Class solar flare detected. A new active region turning into view off the east limb produced an M1.5 solar flare at 05:20 UTC (Dec 13). The same region was also responsible for a few mid to upper level C-Flares. Region 2227 also produced minor C-Flares as it continued to move closer towards the west limb. All other visible sunspots were fairly stable.No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the past day. An isolated M-Flare will remain possible this weekend. Stay tuned for the latest information.
    Yesterday there was a "routine" power and data outage:

    Quote Service Interruption – Saturday, December 13th
    published: Friday, December 12, 2014 17:12 UTC

    On Saturday, December 13th, SWPC operations will be temporarily suspended due to facility power system maintenance. The outage window will begin at 5:00 AM (instead of 6:00 AM as stated in the original notice) and end at 6:00PM Mountain Standard Time on that day. During this time all SWPC forecast and alert products, data products, and email Product Subscription Service will be suspended. SWPC's website will remain in service, but all data will be stale until the power outage has concluded. In the event of active space weather or a reasonable chance of active space weather, this maintenance will be postponed. Phone notification of key stakeholders and customers currently receiving that level of support will continue uninterrupted during this outage.
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/servic...-december-13th

    ...and in the meantime, something set off a Proton Event:

    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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  9. Link to Post #2865
    Finland Avalon Member Wind's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    If the governments ever truly were prepared for something, then this was it.




    A great comment I saw:

    Quote Less solar activity means more cosmic radiation which means more cloud cover which means lower temperatures which means more snow which means more reflection of sunlight which means lower temperatures. Combined with more volcanic eruptions that belch ashes into the high atmosphere which means more dust which means more rain and snow.
    More here:
    https://www.youtube.com/user/MyanmarLiving/videos
    Last edited by Wind; 16th December 2014 at 21:29.
    "Through our eyes, the universe is perceiving itself. Through our ears, the universe is listening to its harmonies.
    We are the witnesses through which the universe becomes conscious of its glory, of its magnificence." ~ Alan Watts

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  11. Link to Post #2866
    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Thanks, Wind! Those vids are a must-see for everyone!

    Sun update:

    Sunspot 2247 has produced quite a few C-flares since it's debut on the earth-facing side of the solar disc. It also produced an M1 at 05:20 UTC on the 13th and an M1.6 at 19:33 UTC on the 14th.

    The kP index is up to level 4 due to solar wind flowing from a coronal hole.

    AR2230 and AR 2234 have beta-gamma magnetic fields that promise a possibilty of 55% for M-flares and the possibity of X-flares is at 10%
    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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  13. Link to Post #2867
    Finland Avalon Member Wind's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Earlier tonight I was wondering that what is this wavy motion and nausea again and here's the explanation... The magnetic field is weakening as every day passes and us sensitive ones are apparently feeling the effects of it. What can you do, we're electromagnetical beings.

    "Solar activity reached high levels early Wednesday morning. Expanding sunspot 2242, now located in a geoeffective position, produced a strong M8.7 solar flare peaking at 04:50 UTC. The event was associated with a 7 minute long Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 320 solar flux units (SFU). Region 2242, along with region 2241, will each remain a threat for additional moderate to strong solar flares. More updates regarding a possible CME once additional information becomes available. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest updates."

    "Through our eyes, the universe is perceiving itself. Through our ears, the universe is listening to its harmonies.
    We are the witnesses through which the universe becomes conscious of its glory, of its magnificence." ~ Alan Watts

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    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Here's an update on yesterday's "quasi" x-flare from spaceweather.com:

    Quote ALMOST-X FLARE: Active sunspot AR2242 erupted on Dec. 17th, producing an M9-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:



    The explosion caused a brief HF radio blackout on the daylitt side of Earth. The event was minor, however, and would have been noticed by only a small number of mariners and ham radio operators. Of greater interest is the CME. SOHO coronagraphs have detected a bright and massive cloud of plasma emerging from the blast site:



    The bulk of the CME appears to be traveling south of the sun-Earth line, so a direct hit is unlikely. However, our planet could receive a glancing blow from the cloud a few days hence. Stay tuned for updates.

    More strong flares could be in the offing. AR2242 is growing and it has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field poised to explode again. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on Dec. 17th. .
    Here's what the earth-facing solar disc looks like now:



    This is what SolarHam says:

    Quote December 17, 2014 @ 15:45 UTC
    High Solar Activity
    Good morning Solar Hammers. Below is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Wednesday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was high with three M-Flares and a number of C-Flares detected around both regions 2241 and 2242. The strongest of these events was an M8.7 solar flare around 2242 at 04:50 UTC (Dec 17). The event was responsible for a coronal mass ejection (CME) that appears to be directed mostly to the south and away from Earth. Beforehand, the active region produced an M1.5 flare at 01:10 UTC. A near M-Flare (C9.8) was detected this morning around 2242 at 15:01 UTC. Elsewhere, region 2241 was responsible for an M1.1 flare at 01:50 UTC. Both regions continued to evolve and will remain a threat for a moderate to strong solar flare. All other regions were fairly stable.
    Last edited by MorningSong; 17th December 2014 at 16:36.
    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    United States Avalon Member Rocky_Shorz's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    check out the sundiving comet/Nuke that hit before the flares...
    Click image for larger version

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    firstflare following the impact

    followed by this long duration earth facing flare...
    Coincidence or Destiny, it's all in the art of knowing.... III IIII charts ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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    Finland Avalon Member Wind's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    M6.9 flare.

    "Through our eyes, the universe is perceiving itself. Through our ears, the universe is listening to its harmonies.
    We are the witnesses through which the universe becomes conscious of its glory, of its magnificence." ~ Alan Watts

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    Finland Avalon Member Wind's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    X1.8flare which lasted a couple of hours!

    Last edited by Wind; Today at 03:43.
    "Through our eyes, the universe is perceiving itself. Through our ears, the universe is listening to its harmonies.
    We are the witnesses through which the universe becomes conscious of its glory, of its magnificence." ~ Alan Watts

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Yes an X flare.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	goes-xray-flux-15.gif
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ID:	28323  

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    it is still flaring earth facing...

    Coincidence or Destiny, it's all in the art of knowing.... III IIII charts ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Lasco 3 and the CME model seem to show that we do have a cme headed towards earth but I am not sure how big. I thought some of the pictures look like a diamond. It is just starting to settle down according to the graph but the pictures sure still look like it's pumping out energy.

    Looks like the majority of the cme is going south of the ecliptic.
    Last edited by Fairy Friend; Today at 06:01.

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