Sun Stuff: What's up!

[Wind]

Everything is perfectly calm now and no noteworthy solar flaring whatsoever, but we did have another major cosmic ray spike yesterday.

[MorningSong]

Oh yes. With the decline in CME's, the cosmic rays always go back up quite quickly:



http://cr0.izmiran.rssi.ru/mosc/main.htm

[MorningSong]

OOPs! How did we miss this yesterday?

New sunspot 2378 produced an M1.5 flare yesterday peaking at 12:51 UTC:



From spaceweather.com:

3RD OF JULY FIREWORKS: Sunspot AR2378 in the sun's southern hemisphere is increasingly active. On July 3rd at 12:51 UT it unleashed an impulsive M1.5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash:



UV radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a mild radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean. Mariners and ham radio operators might have noticed the disturbance at frequencies below ~10 MHz. The explosion did not produce an Earth-directed CME.

4th of July fireworks could be in the offing if AR2378 continues to crackle with flares. Stay tuned.

[Wind]

See this. Another geomagnetic storm and eruption from the Sun.

[MorningSong]

Sunspot 2381 is growing and this morning produced an M1.0 peaking at 08:44 UTC:

[MorningSong]

Last night, sunspot 2381 produced an M1.7 peaking at 20:40 UTC:



From spaceweather.com:

QUIET WITH A CHANCE OF FLARES: Solar activity is low, but the quiet might not last. Fast-growing sunspot AR2381 has an unstable magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters have boosted the odds of an M-class eruption on July 7th to 45%.



Sunspot 2381 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares.

Updated at: 2015 Jul 06 2200 UTC
FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
CLASS M 45 % 45 %
CLASS X 10 % 10 %

[Wind]

Cosmic rays at it again.

[Wind]

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=7whL9jvdL5s

Scientists say Sun’s heartbeat will bring on Ice Age

A new model of the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat suggests that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s, dropping to conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum.

Beginning in about 1645, the Maunder minimum corresponded with the severest portion of the last “Little Ice Age.”

Results of the new study were to be presented yesterday by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno.

Many solar physicists think the solar cycle is driven by a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun. However, when Zharkova and her colleagues added a second dynamo close to the surface, they found that it completed the picture with unprecedented accuracy.

“Our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%,” said Zharkova.

The model predicts that the waves from the two dynamos will become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, from about 2030 to 2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch, leading to a significant reduction in solar activity.

“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’,” said Zharkova. “Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago.”

In other words, we should expect continued deterioration in global climatic conditions between now and 2022, at the peak of Cycle 25.

That’s only seven years away!

Then it will get worse.

We will be praying for global warming.

See entire article:
http://phys.org/news/2015-07-irregul...en-dynamo.html

[Wind]

In other news.... We have been hit! Proton storm, Kp index level 5 now, our magnetic field is definitely feeling it.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=qDm8wK3exxk

[Fairy Friend]

Some cosmic ray spikes and electrons diving again. Bz is negative and maybe enough protons to tip the scales for another earthquake. Not sure but we'll find out.

[Wind]

Yeah, kp index has risen to level five again.

[Wind]

Cosmic rays out of the norm... Again.

[Fairy Friend]

More cosmic ray spikes but earth has been handling it pretty good. Up and down though. Bz has dropped a few times too. Shhhhhhh sun is asleep. Tip toeing so as not to wake the sun.

[Wind]

It's not looking good.

The solar flares have almost completely flatlined, because even C-class flares are barely noteworthy and lately we have had only B-class flares.

Also there are very few and little sunspots and they too are now disappearing. Anyone got a defibrillator?
Our sun could use some reviving, we just don't want to see major heading our way CME's.

The situation isn't catastrophical... Yet. However this is a precursor for what is to come.

Developing El Nino might explain the strange weather, but it has only post-poned the cold weather in some places, although not in here. People need to be prepared mentally and physically for extreme weather events. It is not fear-mongering, it's just a fact. Why are our governments still preparing for global warming when there is something much more dangerous ahead? Are they incompetent idiots or just greedy liars? I'm sorry that I'm venting here, but we are talking about human lives. Major loss of life unless something is done about it.

[Fairy Friend]

I've not seen the baseline this low and unperturbed for so long. Just in case, I have a lot of coats. Stocking up but mostly clearing out first. Transitions are rough. Hoping things adjust slow and gradual. Not feeling a flare yet. Energies are up and down this month even if not seen on all charts. Planetary alignment puts us in quake watch yet. May make a flare.

[Wind]

Kp index has risen to storm levels again.

[Wind]

We barely had a C-class flare just now, that was a dud if I've ever seen one, lol.

[Fairy Friend]

Lol. I agree, a dud. Doesn't even look like a proper uptick even.

[Fairy Friend]

Not surprised to see a quake in Indonesia we had a solar sector boundary crossing I think.

[Fairy Friend]

Looks like the publication from SO was denied review. They are not resubmitting.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=pEyflcAlqZc