Sun Stuff: What's up!

[panopticon]

G'day All,

@Unified Serenity & jcocks: You might find this workshop report from 2008 interesting and for a list of events since the 1859 Carrington storm have a look here.

Here's Dr K Strong's 'The Sun Today' report on the 9th November CME's:

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzMdZbLcUsg

At iSWA's predicted 6.2Re the standoff is approx 4000 Km outside geosync orbit (~5.6Re) -- (Calculated using Re = 6400 km & geosync orbit = 35,786 km).
I blame dyslexia for remembering geosynchronous orbit at 6.5Re (oops) -- Apologies.

Kind Regards,
Panopticon

Addendum:
IPS Oz Latest forecast agrees with spaceweather.com & Dr K Strong regards incoming CME's:

There have been several C class flares over the last 24 hours
The largest of these flares was a C6.0 flare from region 1339(N19W33) at 1831UT.
Solar activity is expected to be Low with a chance of isolated M-class flares for the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed varied mostly between 340-400 Km/s over the UT day.
The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT with some prolonged southwards periods in the later half of the UT day.

A possible glancing blow from the CME activity observed on November 9 may elevate the wind speed and density during the later half of November 11 or early on 12 November.

[panopticon]

G'day All,

Spaceweather.com reported:

As predicted, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 12th at approximately 0600 UT. The impact caused ground currents in Norway and a brief flurry of auroras around the Arctic Circle, but otherwise had little effect. No big geomagnetic storms are in tthe offing.

Further information from spaceweather.com:

Rob Stammes

Image taken: Nov. 12, 2011

Location: Laukvik,Lofoten,Norway,polarlightcenter instruments.

Details: A distinct and very weak effect from a CME this morning,nov.12 2011 on my instruments.

Also CACTUS reports a small CME Halo on the 12/11/2011 @ 18:48UT.

Kind Regards,
Panoption

[Ineffable Hitchhiker]

Here is last nights video from drkstrong.
Not much happening but it is interesting how tiny earth is and how it could fit into just one sunspot.

Anyway, on with the show.

THE SUN TODAY: 12 November 2011 - Sunspots That Could Swallow the Earth

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nl6WqTSl8AA

Todays images.

[MorningSong]

Update from spaceweather.com:

MERCURY-DIRECTED CME: A significant coronal mass ejection (CME) blasted away from the sun's eastern hemisphere on Nov. 12th. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the cloud will hit Mercury on Nov. 13th at 1800 UT (+/- 7 hr) followed by Venus about one day later. The innermost planets are about to experience space weather. [CME: movie, forecast track]

REMARKABLE SOLAR ACTIVITY: There haven't been any strong solar flares in days. Nevertheless, some impressive activity is underway on the sun. For one thing, an enormous wall of plasma is towering over the sun's southeastern horizon. Stephen Ramsden of Atlanta, Georgia, took this picture on Nov. 11th:



"Solar forums all over the world are buzzing with Sun-stronomers proclaiming this to be the biggest prominence that many of them had ever witnessed," he says.

Remarkably, though, this is not the biggest thing. A dark filament of magnetism is snaking more than halfway around the entire sun: SDO image. From end to end, it stretches more than a million km or about three times the distance between Earth and the Moon. If the filament becomes unstable, as solar filaments are prone to do, it could collapse and hit the stellar surface below, triggering a Hyder flare. No one can say if the eruption of such a sprawling structure would be Earth directed.

What is a Hyder Flare?

http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/4/1

Looks to me, like the filament is getting ready to lift off....but I may be wrong...

[panopticon]

G'day MorningSong,

That CME sure is big:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/...im.tim-den.gif

Thanks for the info on on Hyder Flares, sneeky little blighters ain't they.

Kind Regards,
Panoptiion

[MorningSong]

spaceweather has updated their comments on the giant filament:

REMARKABLE SOLAR ACTIVITY: In terms of solar flares, the sun is quiet today. Nevertheless, some impressive activity is underway on the sun. For one thing, an enormous wall of plasma is towering over the sun's southeastern horizon. Stephen Ramsden of Atlanta, Georgia, took this picture on Nov. 11th:

"Solar forums all over the world are buzzing with Sun-stronomers proclaiming this to be the biggest prominence that many of them had ever witnessed," he says.

Remarkably, though, this is not the biggest thing. A dark filament of magnetism is winding halfway around the entire sun. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory took this picture during the early hours of Nov. 14th:



From end to end, this twisted fiber of magnetism stretches more than a million km or about three times the distance between Earth and the Moon. If the filament becomes unstable, as solar filaments are prone to do, it could collapse and hit the stellar surface below, triggering a Hyder flare. No one can say if the eruption of such a sprawling structure would be Earth directed.

"I cant help but wonder what could possibly come next since we are still over a year away from the forecasted Solar Maximum," adds Ramsden. "There's never been a better time to own a solar telescope than now!"

SOLAR UPDATE: The wall of plasma on the sun's SE limb has shifted to a state of high activity. "The prominence is evolving very fast now!" reports Sylvain Weiller of Saint Rémy lès Chevreuse, France. This morning it looked like [the dinosaur] Diplodocus."

In my previous post, I had posted a similar picture, but it got lost somewhere.....oh, well.

[MorningSong]

Today from spaceweather.com:

NAP! ERUPTING FILAMENT: For the past few days, astronomers around the world have been monitoring a dark filament of magnetism sprawled more than 1,000,000 kilometers across the face of the sun. Make that 750,000 km. On Nov. 14th the filament snapped and flung a fraction of itself into space. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the action:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/1...nap_strip2.jpg

The eruption hurled a cloud of plasma into space, but not toward Earth. The only effect on our planet would be to disappoint observers hoping for a longer filament.

Meanwhile, a wall of plasma towering over the sun's SE limb is seething with activity and may be poised to erupt as well. Readers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.

And in another meanwhile, two M-class flares were noted today; one at 9:03 UTC from sunspot 348 located on the far western limb so the CME might just give a very slight buff to Earth and another at 12:30 UTC from sunspot 346 located just east of center view which means that it's CME will be geoeffective within the next 48 hours.

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html

http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/8

As the Kp Index has moved up to level 4 today, aurora activity has increased from the 1-3 levels of yesterday to 5-8 levels since around 6:00 UTC today.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/Plots.html

[MorningSong]

On November the 17th, a wave flury of C-class flares occured on the eastern limb of the Earth-facing solar corona involving new sunspots 353 and 354 and a filament eruption. The action began at 19:20 UTC on the 17th and ended at 1:40 UTC on the 18th.

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw...22907_148/www/

A filament eruption today on the 19th from 13:45 to 15:00 UTC in the same area.

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw...7_80054_2/www/

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

[MorningSong]

From spaceweather.com:

ACTIVE SUNSPOT: A new sunspot (image) has emerged over the sun's NE limb and it could bring an uptick in solar activity. On Nov. 18th, the active region hurled a bright CME toward Venus, and on Nov. 19th it produced the following eruption, recorded by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory:



So far, Earth has been unaffected by the action of this sunspot group, but this could change as the region turns toward our planet in the days ahead. Stay tuned

[nomadguy]

on the 19th,

[Sidney]

Why does it say Nov 8 in the corner of the image.

[nomadguy]

no kidding, somehow my computer sorted into the 19th,
nice spotting!
SO its the 8th. Somehow it got date stamped 11 19 2011. No matter,

~mighty odd corona I think.

[MorningSong]

From Presto Alert:

:Issued: 2011 Nov 26 1240 UTC
roduct: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A solar energetic particle event at energies above 10 MeV was detected
by GOES starting from around 08:30 UT this morning. The proton flux
increase was associated with a double-peaked C-class flare detected this
morning, with two peaks at 07:13 UT (C1.2) and 08:27 UT (C1.5). The
first peak is associated with a filament eruption to the west of the
Catania sunspot group 52 (NOAA AR 1353) starting at 06:43 UT, as
evidenced by SDO/AIA data, and with a CME first detected in the
SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 07:12 UT. The second flare peak took
place in the Catania sunspot group 55 (NOAA AR 1357) that is currently
situated at the north-west limb. The SOHO/LASCO data is still not
available to confirm if a CME was possibly associated with the second
flare peak. The proton flux increase seems to be associated with the
second flare.

http://www.sidc.be/products/presto/

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html

One of the flares:





http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/lates...1126_0609.html

[Ineffable Hitchhiker]

Full Halo CME + Proton Flare / Solar Watch Nov 27, 2011

Full Halo CME / S1 Minor Radiation Storm:
At 07:00 UT, a magnetic filament exploded in the northwest quadrant of the solar corona, causing a powerful Coronal Mass Ejection. Analysis of the Lasco C2 and in the latest STEREO Ahead/Behind COR2 images, it does appear that most of the explosion was directed away from Earth. A glancing blow may be possible in 48 hours. The proton levels reached the S1 Minor Radiation Storm threshold and slowly subsiding.

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlSHR6MYAaY

[MorningSong]

Update from Presto Alert:

:Issued: 2011 Nov 26 2119 UTC
roduct: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
New SOHO/LASCO data on the CMEs associated with the double-peaked
C-class flare of this morning is now available. The C1.2 flare peak
(updated peak time 07:10 UT, located at N11W47) resulted from the
eruption of a filament to the west of the Catania sunspot group 52 (NOAA
AR 1353). It was associated with a partial halo CME first detected in
the LASCO C2 field of view at 07:00 UT, with angular width around 270
degrees and the speed around 700 km/s. On the contrary, the C1.5 flare
peak (updated peak time 08:24 UT) located in the Catania sunspot group
55 (NOAA AR 1357) at the north-west limb was not associated with any
CME. It is therefore most probable that, contrary to our earlier
evaluation, today's SEP event (that is still ongoing) was produced by
the partial halo CME associated with the filament eruption to the west
of Catania sunspot group 52 (NOAA AR 1353). The arrival of the
corresponding ICME at the Earth is expected in the evening of November
28 - morning of November 29. Configurations of the photospheric magnetic
field and post-eruptive arcade indicate that a possible magnetic cloud
will most probably have left-handed chirality and will be inclined at
around 45 degrees to the ecliptic plane, with southward interplanetary
magnetic field in the leading part of the cloud. A major geomagnetic
storm will be possible.

http://www.sidc.be/products/presto/

[MorningSong]

spaceweather.com is reporting a weak CME impact last night around 21:25 UTC causing auroras in various areas of the world. A photographer describes them as "mind.blowing...all over the sky". I say.....hmmm..and that was a "weak CME", huh?

What I have seen, examining the data is a very quick quirk in the mag field at the hour indicated with a much more significant event following much later on, starting at 00:17 UTC and completely resolved at 00:32 UTC:
http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simula...1129001732.jpg
http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simula...1129003247.jpg

A bit later on around 02:00 UTC, the mag field got all wound up and hot due to density/velocity and temperature fluxing:



This reconnection of mag fields behind the Earth aids the influx of charged solar plasma into our atmosphere which is then observed as auroras.



Finally around 06:11 UTC, the mag fields untangled themselves and began to deflect the solar plasma storm:



So, if any of you have had a ho-hum, exausting day like me....this is probably why.

PS: According to iNtigrated Space Weather System, we had 3 CMEs incoming last night and this morning..... will try to post something if any of the data sites mention them specifically.

[MorningSong]

Spaceweather.com says the sun is quiet.....

so what is this, hmmmm????

[Sidney]

That......is the explanation for my migraine. And yeah, I have noticed on a regular basis they say its quiet when there are flares left and right. OMG my head hurts...

[Wind]

Wow. Sun is surely waking up.

[MorningSong]

What's up at spaceweather.com:

SUBSIDING SUNSPOT: After three days of meteoric growth, sunspot AR1363 has reversed course and is beginning to decay. As its magnetic field relaxes, the active region poses a subsiding threat for strong flares. It's not dead yet, though, as this snapshot shows:



NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this extreme ultraviolet flash from a C6-class solar flare in the sunspot's magnetic canopy during the late hours of Dec. 5th. AR1363 is crackling with low-level flares like this one.

There is still a slim chance that AR1363 will buck the trend and unleash a major M- or X-class eruption. If such an flare happens today, it will be geoeffective because the sunspot is facing Earth. Quiet, however, is more likely.