Sun Stuff: What's up!

[MorningSong]

Not much going on with the sun lately. Today this was on spaceweather.com:

SOLAR CYCLE CRASHING: Is anyone wondering, why has the sun been so quiet lately? Answer: The 11-year sunspot cycle is crashing. Just look at the numbers in the graph below:



For the past two years, the sunspot number has been dropping as the sun transitions from Solar Max to Solar Min. Fewer sunspots means fewer solar flares and fewer coronal mass ejections (CMEs). As these explosions subside, we deem the sun "quiet."

But how quiet is it, really?

A widely-held misconception is that space weather stalls and becomes uninteresting during periods of low sunspot number. In fact, by turning the solar cycle sideways, we see that Solar Minimum brings many interesting changes. For instance, the upper atmosphere of Earth collapses, allowing space junk to accumulate around our planet. The heliosphere shrinks, bringing interstellar space closer to Earth. And galactic cosmic rays penetrate the inner solar system with relative ease. Indeed, a cosmic ray surge is already underway. (Goodbye sunspots, hello deep-space radiation.)

Stay tuned for updates as the sunspot number continues to drop.

[Wind]

I actually get to update this thread once again since our sun is finally giving some signs of life.

A moderately strong M6.7 solare flare 00:29 UTC April 18.

[Wind]

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=VVgUZv9ccyQ

[Wind]

Kp index was high (6) earlier. Flaring has been quiet althoug there was this moderate C-class flare, which of course is nothing.
I'm feeling that there will be more quakes soon.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=efnmnsh4vaM

[MorningSong]

Yesterday there was a significant uptick on the pK index:



From spaceweather.com:

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: For the past 24+ hours, Earth's magnetic field has been reverberating with geomagnetic storms. At their most intense on May 8th, G3-class storms sparked bright auroras around both poles, parts of four continents, and more than a half a dozen US states. In Antarctica, everything turned green:



"The auroras were beautiful at Argentina's Belgrano II base in Antarctica," reports photographer Gabriel Saiquita, who has witnessed bright Southern Lights for two days in a row.

In the United States, auroras were sighted in Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Michigan, Montana, Minnesota, and even Arkansas.

The "Mother's Day Storms" of May 8th began when Earth crossed a fold in the heliosphereic current sheet, entering a region of space filled with negative-polarity magnetic fields. Such fields easily link to Earth's magnetic field, opening a crack in our planet's magnetosphere. Solar wind pours in to fuel spectacular auroras.

Overall, this was the strongest episode of geomagnetic activity so far in 2016. The storms are subsiding now. NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of minor G1-class storms on May 9th as Earth's magnetic environment returns to normal.

[Wind]

From Suspicious0bserver's Twitter feed:

"Electrical disruptions during this 24hr solar storm have produced a 50x increase in search results for electrical transformer fire outage."

As the saying goes... Eyes open, no fear.

[Wind]

Geomagnetic storm, solar plasma penetrated the ionosphere.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=0niZbS8PIlw

[MorningSong]

News from spaceweather.com:

VANISHING SUNSPOTS: Something interesting is happening on the sun. Yesterday, June 3rd, the sunspot number dropped to 0, and the solar disk is still blank on June 5th. Latest images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory reveal no significant dark cores:



What does this mean? The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and forth between periods of high and low sunspot number every 11 years. Today's blank sun is a sign that the pendulum is swinging toward low sunspot numbers. In other words, Solar Minimum is coming.

The spotless state of today's sun is just temporary. Underneath the visible surface of the sun, the solar dynamo is still churning out knots of magnetism that will soon bob to the surface to make new sunspots. The current solar cycle is not finished. It is, however, rapidly waning.

Forecasters expect the next Solar Minimum to arrive in 2019-2020. Between now and then, there will be lots of spotless suns. At first, the blank stretches will be measured in days; later in weeks and months. Don't expect space weather to grow quiet, however. Solar Minimum brings many interesting changes. For instance, as the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun decreases, the upper atmosphere of Earth cools and collapses. This allows space junk to accumulate around our planet. Also, the heliosphere shrinks, bringing interstellar space closer to Earth. Galactic cosmic rays penetrate the inner solar system with relative ease. Indeed, a cosmic ray surge is already underway. Goodbye sunspots, hello deep-space radiation!

.................................



For the first time in almost two years, the sun is blank--no sunspots! Credit: SDO/HMI

..........................

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 2 days
2016 total: 2 days (1%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 05 Jun 2016

[Wind]

The implications of that blank sun will be massive in the near future.

G2 storm it seems, Kp level 5.

[Fairy Friend]

Minor signs of an uptick in activity on a flatlined sun. Must of had some error (spike) which seemed to be corrected now.

[Wind]

Moderate geomagnetic storm, let's see how many electronic disruptions this might cause.

[Hervé]

Blank Sun Again

Robert June 24, 2016

For the second time this month, the solar disk is blank–no sunspots.

Spotless Sun – 23 Jun 2016 – Credit SDO/HMI

This image of the sun taken by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory on June 23rd shows zero sunspots.


http://spaceweather.com/

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Hervé (here)
For the second time this month, the solar disk is blank–no sunspots.

Some chilling news, from "Dr Sircus", at drsircus.com: Silent Sun – Record Cold & Snow – Gathering Food Crisis.

He is anticipating that the solar system is entering a cooling era, which will include a new "mini-ice age" on earth, in the coming decades. The colder weather will reduce food production and lead to a major food crisis for humanity during this century.

The diminishing sun spot activity is a key indicator. This article includes this plot of sun spot activity, from 1749 through (projected) 2040:

After reading the above, I started looking into small scale hydroponics, figuring that I could grow at least a little bit of healthy plant based food inside my trailer, to supplement the poorer quality and reduced quantity food I might be able to afford, in coming decades. I still don't know of any reasonable alternative to obtain the critical omega 6 and 3 Parent Essential Oils (PEOs), as described at length by Brian Peskin (see brianpeskin.com), or other high quality saturated or mono-unsaturated fats, if the grocery store shelves are empty, or their contents too costly for my budget. Key minerals in water soluable, bio-available forms, can be bought in bulk quite economically and with very long shelf lives, and will also be provided by plants, if they are grown in soil (or in the case of hydroponics, water) that has these minerals. Healthy gut bacteria, supported by a variety of fermented foods, provide many of the important vitamins. It's the good fats and oils that are potentially expensive or unavailable in times of famine, and some of which, especially the poly unsaturated omega 3's and 6's, have short shelf lives and require careful extraction and processing.

But I've got time to work on this ... such things don't (he said hopefully) happen over night.

[MorningSong]

That's the second time I've seen that Dr. Sircus article posted here on Avalon in the last few days, and I must say that IMO it is a mix-match of tabloid article titles worked up in paragraph form so that its dots connect... It's wording is very high strung and close to what I'd almost call fearporn, I am very sorry to say. BUT...

Yes, we are seeing a levelling off of sunspot count as we enter the solar cycle minimum, which is completely normal. Sunspot count minimum has been predicted to occur soon, or around 2022... take your pick... your guess is as good as mine.

Yes, Solar Cycle 24 was only half as strong as Cycle 23. Does anyone but me remember when the predictions for Cycle 24 were supposed to superceed Cycle 23 with possibility of catastrophic CME blasts (especially back in 2009-2010)? There were a lot of articles out back then spreading doom and gloom to come from the sun. It just didn't happen.

Take a look at this article from 2006... it shows the prediction for Cycle 24 being greater that that of Cycle 23... and it did NOT happen! I don't trust the current methods of predicting what the sun will or will not do tomorrow, much less years from now. But that's just me...

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news...may_longrange/

This is from spaceweather.com... the sunspot count with comparison back to 2009:

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 26 Jun 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 2 days
2016 total: 6 days (3%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 26 Jun 2016

In 2009, Sunspot Cycle 22-23 Minimum, there were 260 days without any sunspots.... so what? Did you notice food shortages or any memory shaking weather events (except for the economic crisis, which may well be connected somehow, according to Mandeville, http://radio.rumormillnews.com/podca...mandeville/))?

Dr. Sircus states:

“The main driver of all weather and climate … has gone quiet again during what is likely to be the weakest sunspot cycle in more than a century. Not since February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots.”

I'm not sure he is saying what he means with that last phrase... makes no sense to me...but, if this cycle 24 can be compared to the cycle year 1906.. So? Were there substancial worldwide crop failures at that time? Maybe I willo just have to look that up for curiosity's sake.

He reported some wild weather that has happened in the world recently... no doubt that the weather has been wild even here where I live. But isn't snow in northern Russia or Siberia pretty normal even for June ( we have had snow flurries here in the Alps in July or August before, no big deal). Snow in Ukraine June 9... well it snowed 20cm at Livigno, Italy last Friday. Yes, weird, but not catastrophic.

RE: record cold in Antarctica, Wiki says this:

The lowest natural temperature ever directly recorded at ground level on Earth is −89.2 °C (−128.6 °F; 184.0 K), which was at the Soviet Vostok Station in Antarctica, on July 21, 1983. Analysis of satellite data indicated a probable temperature of around −93.2 °C (−135.8 °F; 180.0 K), in East Antarctica, on August 10, 2010; however, this reading was not confirmed by ground measurements.

A 2009 study estimated that under exceptional climate conditions similar to those recorded at Vostok in 1983, temperatures higher on the plateau around Dome Argus could potentially drop as low as −95 °C (−139 °F; 178 K).[1] On August 10, 2010, satellite observations measured a surface temperature of −93.2 °C (−135.8 °F; 180.0 K) at 81.8°S 59.3°E, along a ridge between Dome Argus and Dome Fuji, at 3,900 m elevation.

RE:Snow in Zimbabwe, the source article even states that it was a local phenom within a radius of about 5 km, and it was hail or sleet, not snow and that the normal temps in that area this time of the year get as low as 9°C... maybe it was just a tad bit colder and some rain froze.

And back to the sunspot count... if we are heading toward another "Little Ice Age" like the one back in 1790-1830... that doesn't mean we will all be snowed in for 50 years on running...it just means that the winters will be colder and maybe the summers will be cooler... it doesn't mean that we won't have seasons and that crops won't grow at all.


RE Weak Sunspot Slar Cycles, I found this article's statement worth mentioning... since it is much more important IMO than anything the the article re: the sun in the OP:

There can be important consequences from weak solar cycles; especially, if they are part of a long-term pattern. First, this particular weak solar cycle has resulted in rather benign “space weather” in recent times with generally weaker-than-normal geomagnetic storms. By all Earth-based measures of geomagnetic and geoeffective solar activity, this cycle has been extremely quiet. However, while a weak solar cycle does suggest strong solar storms will occur less often than during stronger and more active cycles, it does not rule them out entirely. In fact, the famous "superstorm" Carrington Event of 1859 occurred during a weak solar cycle (#10). In addition, there is some evidence that most large events such as strong solar flares and significant geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the declining phase of the solar cycle. In other words, there is still a chance for significant solar activity in the months and years ahead.

http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2...-solar-minimum

@ Paul:
Evening Primrose, a common roadside "weed" but is highly edible is a great souce of γ-linolenic acid, a type of omega-6 fatty acid. And Purslane contains more omega-3 fatty acids (alpha-linolenic acid in particular) than any other leafy vegetable plant. Just sayin'.

[Wind]

I would recommend to check out the channel Adapt 2030. I don't see it as fear-mongering, it's just good to be aware.

https://www.youtube.com/user/MyanmarLiving/videos

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by MorningSong (here)
That's the second time I've seen that Dr. Sircus article posted here on Avalon in the last few days, and I must say that IMO it is a mix-match of tabloid article titles worked up in paragraph form so that its dots connect... It's wording is very high strung and close to what I'd almost call fearporn, I am very sorry to say. BUT...

True ... First (that I remember) it was a coming ice age, then it was melting polar ice caps that would drown coastal cities, and now it another variation of a coming ice age.

Maybe nature will surprise us and present the most boring 50 years of "average" weather in recorded history .

For the moment, I am planning for greater food shortages in the coming decades. Of course, nine of the ten things I have planned for haven't happened, yet anyway.

Posted by MorningSong (here)
@ Paul:
Evening Primrose, a common roadside "weed" but is highly edible is a great souce of γ-linolenic acid, a type of omega-6 fatty acid. And Purslane contains more omega-3 fatty acids (alpha-linolenic acid in particular) than any other leafy vegetable plant. Just sayin'.

Thanks .

On further investigation, it seems that flax, chia and hemp also contain good amounts of alpha-linolenic acid as well. These too should be growable, perhaps to the "microgreen" (immature leaf) stage, using hydroponics.

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Hervé (here)
(called "Helical" in DJ Sadhu's video which is incorrect for both motion and trajectories):

Phil Plait, in this three year old article, agrees that Sadhu's video is incorrect, and sends Sadhu's presentation through a virtual Veg-O-Matic, slicing and dicing Sadhu's model.

Admittedly, Plait is a main stream astronomer, so not someone I would expect to agree with on some basic issues, such as whether the Electric Universe model is compelling. But I do figure that Plait at least correctly understands the basic orbits of planets in the solar system, and the solar system in our galaxy.

[Wind]

For a while cosmic ray readings have been abnormal, once again.

In case you're wondering why there's so much rain/flooding, this epxlains it.

Just recently here the rainfall records were broken and this is only the beginning.

[Nick Matkin]

We're all doomed cos I found this: Sun Has Likely Entered New Evolutionary Phase, Say Astronomers

Though how something with an overall lifespan close to 10 billion years can show any long term changes in just the time of all of human existence, let alone one human lifetime seems incredulous. Seems more likely that if it is 'entering a new phase', it is that very phase that allowed complex life of earth to develop in the first place, and not a phase that started last year, last century or last millennium!

Anyway, an interesting read that caught my eye.

[Hervé]

A Massive Canyon-Shaped Hole has Opened up in the Sun's Atmosphere

nemesis maturity

Published on Jul 5, 2016

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=-IddzVVHJfo

MAGNETIC CANYON ON THE SUN: A canyon-shaped hole has opened up in the sun's atmosphere, and it is spewing solar wind into space. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is monitoring the structure, which stretches more than 700,000 km from end to end.

The massive structure is called a "coronal hole."

Coronal holes are places in the sun's atmosphere where magnetic fields peel back and allow hot gas to escape.

A gaseous stream of solar wind flowing from this opening will reach Earth on July 8th or 9th, possibly sparking polar geomagnetic storms when it arrives.

High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, especially in the southern hemisphere where dark winter skies favor visibility.
http://spaceweather.com/

The visible disk remains spotless for the 12th day in a row.
A region of emerging flux was observed near N03W63 but the spots did not persist long enough to be assigned an active region number.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (05-07 Jul).
http://www.solarham.net/

Solar Wind Speed: 345 km/sec
Solar Wind Magnetic Fields: Bt 4 nT, Bz 2 nT
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Clips, images credit: Helioviewer.org, SDO, spaceweather.com & solarham.

Music credit: Living Voyage by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/...)
Source: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-...
Artist: http://incompetech.com/