Sun Stuff: What's up!

[MorningSong]

Well... just in time...

SOLAR ACTIVITY PICKS UP: Dec. 25th began with a pair of magnetic filaments erupting in the sun's northern hemisphere followed by a sequence of C-flares from sunspot 1385 in the sun's southern hemisphere. Both halves of the sun are rocking on Christmas: SDO movie. Coronagraph images from SOHO and the twin STEREO probes suggest a possible Earth-directed CME. Stay tuned for updates.

http://spaceweather.com/

And an 4.0 M-class flare was abserved at 18:11 UTC from an unidentified sunspot (S22W26) today, too!



http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

[MorningSong]

Latest from spaceweather.com:

CME TARGETS MARS, EARTH: New sunspot 1387 erupted during the late hours of Christmas Day, producing an M4-class flare and hurling a CME toward Earth and Mars. Click to view an animated forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab:



The CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 28th at 1200 UT and a direct hit to the planet Mars on Dec. 30th at 1800 UT. Using onboard radiation sensors, NASA's Curiosity rover might be able to sense the CME when it passes the rover's spacecraft en route to Mars. Here on Earth, NOAA forecasters estimate a 30-to-40% chance of geomagnetic storms on Dec. 28th when the CME and an incoming solar wind stream (unrelated to the CME) could arrive in quick succession. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Wednesday night.

BEAUTIFUL BLAST: After three years of deep quiet, the sun woke up in 2011. Sunspots and solar flares became commonplace again as long-awaited Solar Cycle 24 got underway. One of the most beautiful eruptions of the young solar cycle occured just this past weekend. Rogerio Marcon of Campinas SP Brasil photographed the blast on Christmas Eve:



"I made a time-lapse video of the eruption," says Marcon. "What a wonderful Christmas present." While Marcon was recording the event from Earth, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory was doing the same from Earth-orbit. It was beautiful up there, too.

This explosion was not Earth-directed. Next time, however, could be different. The source of the blast, sunspot 1386, is turning toward Earth, increasing the chances of a geoeffective flare in the days ahead.

I will add that we got another M-Class flare this morining (1.5 mag) around 2:26 UTC from an AR near sunspot 387.

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/lates...1226_0213.html

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

[MorningSong]

Update from spaceweather.com:

CMEs TARGET EARTH, MARS: The odds of a geomagnetic storm on Dec. 28th are improving with the launch of two CMEs toward Earth in less than 24 hours. NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft photographed this one on Dec. 26th:



According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud should squarely strike Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 28th at 20:22 UT (+/- 7 hours). Another CME could deliver a glancing blow a few hours earlier on the same date. The double impact is expected to spark mild-to-moderate geomagnetic storms at high latitudes.

Mars is also in the line of fire. The first of the two CMEs is squarely directed toward the Red Planet--estimated time of arrival: Dec. 30th at 1800 UT. Using onboard radiation sensors, NASA's Curiosity rover might be able to sense the CME when it passes the rover's spacecraft en route to Mars.

SolarSoft has just posted another M-class ( 2.0 mag) at 20:12 UTC. That makes at least three incoming CME's back to back.... should be an interesting ride on the 28th.

[Turcurulin]

From Secchi -

[MorningSong]

What is the significance, Turcurulin? I see a flare and what looks like 2 planets.... what happened at that time in 2007?

[Turcurulin]

Sorry, MorningSong. Was looking for a good compare/contrast between then and now, but couldn't find the right pictures to present with the proper planetary orientations. But, look at all of that extra energy Jupiter's getting anyhow!

Thanks for all of the info you post here. Amazing!

[MorningSong]

ok.

I was just looking at SOHO Lasco3 Movie Theater and was taking in all the flares, wondering why only a few are listed in the data sites...and stumbled onto the bottom pare of the SolarMonitor home page..... it has this:

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.7(11:23) /C1.6(04:47) C5.5(08:49) C8.4(11:20) C2.2(16:55) C7.7(20:23)

http://solarmonitor.org/

Those are all pretty big flares and are all Earth bound..... incredible!

[MorningSong]

Latest SWPC 3-day Space Weather Forecast:

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hour. Region 1387 (S22W42) has produced two M-class flares, the
largest being an M2/Sf event at 26/2030Z. Region 1387 continues to
grow, in areal coverage and magnetic complexity as it rotates into a
more geoeffective location. Region 1386 (S17E37) also continues to
grow and evolve. A proton enhancement at geosynchronous orbit was
observed by the GOES 13 spacecraft, with a max flux of 3 pfu at
26/0135. This enhancement appears to be correlated to the M4/1n
flare from Region 1387 on 25 December. Protons were again at
background level at the time of this report. Over the past 36 hours,
5 CMEs have been observed in STEREO and LASCO C2 and C3 imagery.
Three CMEs were associated with eruptive filaments and two were
associated with flares from Region 1387. Of these five CMEs two are
forecast to become geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class events for the next
three days (27 - 29 December).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels on day one (27
December). An increase to quiet to active levels with a chance for
an isolated minor storm period on days two and three (28 -29
December) is expected as two CMEs, from filament eruptions on 25
December and 26 December, are expected to arrive on 28 December and
early on 29 December, respectfully.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 146
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 144

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 004/005-013/018-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 01/40/40
Minor storm 01/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/40/40
Minor storm 05/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/15/20

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

[MorningSong]

Latest SWPC 3-day Space Weather Forecast:

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1386 (S18E08), Region 1387 (S21W70) and New Region
1389 (S20E70) have all produced C-class events, the largest being
from Region 1389, which was a C7/1F flare at 1425Z. Region 1386 and
1387 both continue to grow and evolve, but have yet to produce
major solar activity. Several small non-Earth directed CMEs were
observed during the summary period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (29 - 31 December).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Signatures observed by the ACE spacecraft indicate the arrival of a
small CME around 0950Z. Solar wind speeds increased from around 250
km/s to 280 km/s with and increase in the total IMF to around 14 nT.
This transient appears to be from an unknown event, perhaps on 24
December. The lower energetic particle sensors on the ACE spacecraft
continue to gradually increase, indicating another approaching CME.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with a chance for isolated
minor storm levels on day one (29 December) as multiple CMEs are
expected to arrive. Quiet to unsettled level are expected on day two
(30 December) as effects the previous CMEs wane. Predominantly
quiet levels are expected on day three (31 December).

III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 145
Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 145/140/140
90 Day Mean 28 Dec 144

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 015/022-012/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/01
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 20/20/01

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

Yesterday morning around 11:00UTC, a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse was observed and the K-index rose and fell as a result of the arrival of one of the first CME's from Dec 24 or Dec 26. This morning the Geomagnetic K-index has risen again as two CME waves have reached Earth. Presently we are in a geomagnetic storm as a third wave has reached Earth.



http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/

[MorningSong]

Latest SWPC 3-dy Space Weather Forecast:

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class flares were
observed from Region 1389 (S22E44), an M2/Sf at 29/2151Z and a M1/Sn
at 30/0309Z. The region ended the period as an Ekc type group with
beta magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions were stable
and magnetically simple.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels, particularly from Region 1389,
for the next three days (31 December - 02 January).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft was near 350 km/s. Bz at ACE was briefly southward
to -8 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for day one (31 December),
increasing to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active
conditions on days two and three (01-02 January). The increase in
activity is expected with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed
stream.

III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 141
Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 30 Dec 144

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 005/005-008/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/15/15

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

[MorningSong]

Has been a pretty calm week, but looks like things are picking up.

Here's the latest from SuspiciousObservers:

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNFSZAQQofM

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EnlSj1zriA

And the latest from spaceweather.com:

INCOMING CME? A magnetic filament in the sun's northern hemisphere erupted on Jan. 5th and hurled a CME in the general direction of Earth. At first it appeared that the cloud would sail north of Earth and completely miss our planet. Subsequent work by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab suggests a different outcome: the CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 7th. Click to view an animated forecast track:



NOAA forecasters were already calling for a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Jan. 7-8 in response to a high-speed solar wind stream. The arrival of a CME would boost the chances even more.

[Ineffable Hitchhiker]

Hi MorningSong,
haven´t popped in here for ages.

I have a little update....
I enjoy the presentations and the images are stunning.

FARSIDE BLAST: A magnetic active region behind the sun's eastern limb erupted during the late hours of Jan. 6th. SOHO recorded the flying debris. In a few days the blast site will rotate onto the Earthside of the sun for closer inspection. Stay tuned.

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFF9RnXTqEY

[Ineffable Hitchhiker]

Source

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHVzGc97ztg

FARSIDE ERUPTION: On Jan. 12th, between 10:00 and 1300 UT, NASA's STEREO-Behind spacecraft observed a significant eruption on the farside of the sun. Although the blast was partially eclipsed by the edge of the solar disk, it nevertheless produced a long-duration X-ray flare (C3-class) detectable from Earth. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows some of the debris flying over the NE limb:



The blast site is only ~two days away from rotating onto the Earthside of the sun. By this weekend, we could get a direct look at the active region. Perhaps it will break the recent string of mostly quiet days and low solar activity.

Update: The partially-eclipsed C-flare was strong enough to make waves of ionizaton in Earth's upper atmosphere. This, in turn, disturbed the normal propagation of low-frequency radio waves over Europe. "The C3.3 flare on the far side of the Sun was picked up on my SID monitoring station," reports Dave Gradwell of Birr Ireland. "It affected the 20.9 kHz signal from FTA in France, just before the signal became unstable."

[blufire]

Has anyone else observed the since this solar cycle has became active all the major flares and eruptions have occurred on the “other side” of the sun.

Something “over there” always out of our line of site perturbing the sun perhaps???

[MorningSong]

Yes, blufire, I have been seeing this reality for as many years as I have been watching the sun through on-line data ( since about 2007). I have truely wondered why the sun appears to be much more active on the non-Earth facing side. Unfortunately, I haven't found an answer to this question....yet! lol

[MorningSong]

Just to liven things up, the sun is turning it's more active side towards Earth again. Today we got a M-class 1.4 mag flare from an active area just coming over the north-western edge....



From spaceweather.com:

M-FLARE: Today at 1318 UT, Earth-orbiting satellites detected an M1-class solar flare (SDO movie). The source is a new sunspot emerging over the sun's northeastern limb.

And this Coronal Hole is staring us in the face:

CORONAL HOLE: NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is monitoring a dark gash in the sun's atmosphere--a coronal hole. It's the dark vertical feature in this extreme UV image taken on Jan. 13th:



Coronal holes are places where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows the solar wind to escape. This yawning hole is about 120,000 km wide and more than a million km long. Solar wind flowing from its UV-dark abyss will reach Earth on Jan. 16th or 17th, possibly sparking auroras for high-latitude sky watchers.

[blufire]

You know from time to time how you get those little bits of info from ‘out there’ that makes your pulse go up and hair stand on end . . . . . well I just got one of those looking at the picture of the dark gash nearly the entire length of the sun.

In the Maya literature the “dark rift” is mentioned over and over and how the earth, sun and other planets will line up with it in 12/2012. Books and other info have generally suggested it is the dark rift in our solar system . . . . well what if they (mayan) meant the dark rift that opens in the sun??? Or even the dark rift we see now in the sun lining up with the rift in our solar system in addition to our planets?

I no joke am feeling a bit sick right now . . . . .

[astrid]

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvSp8XSWuGU

[Rocky_Shorz]

Posted by MorningSong (here)
Yes, blufire, I have been seeing this reality for as many years as I have been watching the sun through on-line data ( since about 2007). I have truely wondered why the sun appears to be much more active on the non-Earth facing side. Unfortunately, I haven't found an answer to this question....yet! lol

take a look at this link right after the burst, look at the little white dots pulling away they are the size of our moon... they are in a straight line stretching across the sunspot and all pull away together...

Posted by Rocky_Shorz (here)
check this soho movie...

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/gal...171_S22W53.mov

whatever they are, we're glad they are there...

it is like they are sunspot band aids, covering the opening until danger passes from earth...

That M popped early or it would have hit us...

[Ineffable Hitchhiker]

Aurora watch in the Northern hemisphere.

A very long duration C6.4 event was detected around Active Region 11402. A Full-Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced shortly after. This CME will hit Venus during the late hours of Jan. 18th. This CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field around 1200 UT on Jan. 19th. The impact could cause geomagnetic activity and auroras around the Arctic Circle.

Earth is entering a moderately-fast (540 km/s) solar wind stream that could spark geomagnetic disturbances around the Arctic Circle. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight.

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=273u4ANl9dc

AURORA WATCH: Earth is entering a moderately-fast (~500 km/s) solar wind stream that could spark geomagnetic disturbances around the Arctic Circle. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight.

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_leHAKHYH0