Sun Stuff: What's up!

[MorningSong]

What's new at spaceweather.com:

SOLAR PROMINENCE: Today, a network of plasma-filled magnetic filaments is rising over the sun's northwestern limb. Some of the arcs in this Solar Dynamics Observatory image taken during the early hours off Jan. 18th are nearly 500,000 km long:



The vast structure is an easy target for backyard solar telescopes. If you have one, take a look. Any instability in the magnetic thicket of this prominence could produce a spectacular eruption framed by the black of space over the sun's horizon.

"Any instability.....could produce a...eruption...." Yes, and this is turning towards us slowly every day...... cross your fingers it doesn't decide to come un-attached then!

PS: In case anyone missed it, there was an M1 flare yesterday from sunspot 401.... some are predicting a glancing blow from its CME around the 19th-20th preceded by possible geomagnetic disturbance from another incoming CME produced on the 16th.

Here's the latest SWPC 3-day forecast:

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 1401
(N18E38) produced an M1/1n at 17/0453Z. The other significant spot
group, Region 1402 (N28E40), was quiet during the period. Both
regions continued their growth phase in area and magnetic complexity
and are both classified E-type Beta-Gamma groups. New Region 1406
(S23W55) emerged on the disk as a D-type group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the
next three days (18 - 20 January).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, steadily decayed
during the past 24 hours from a high of near 500 km/s to a low of
about 400 km/s at the end of the period. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through day one and most of
day two (18 - 19 January). By late on day two and through day three
(20 January), the field is expected to increase to quiet to
unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods. This activity
is due to the anticipated effects from a glancing blow as a result
of the 16 January CME.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 139
Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 145/150/155
90 Day Mean 17 Jan 144

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 004/005-006/006-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/20

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

[MorningSong]

We are having a prolonged M-Class flare, now decreasing n magnitude, that reached it's peak around 16:08UTC.



From spaceweather.com:

ADVANCING SUNSPOTS: A phalanx of sunspots is turning toward Earth. Their advance is documented in this two-day movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:



The large one in the middle, AR1401, has a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. At the moment it is unleashing one such flare every day, such as this flash recorded during the late hours of Jan. 19th. Eruptions from AR1401 will become increasingly geoeffective in the days ahead as the sun's rotation aligns the active region with our planet.

[Ineffable Hitchhiker]

Here is a presentation of the M3.2 Long Duration Event around Sunspot 1402 on Jan 19, 2012. Images + Movies by SDO, EVE and STEREO.
This event produced a bright and partially Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection.

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3n2yZl-nns

These are the latest from SOHO LASCO C2.










update


M 3.2 Flare + FULL HALO CME / Solar Watch Jan 20, 2012

EARTH-DIRECTED CME: Active Region 11402 erupted between 15:15 and 16:30 UT on Jan 19th. The long-duration blast produced an M2.6 & M3.2-class solar flares and a Full Halo CME that appears to be heading toward Earth. Geomagnetic storms will be possible within 60 hours. Further significant solar flare activity around Active Regions 11401 & 11402 are possible in the coming days as they are growing and changing shape rapidly.

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJoehhYZXjA

[1inMany]

I wanted to say thank you for this thread again. I wonder if you could help me with something when you have a moment. I see the spikes on the graph, and I see the "poof" on the video. To me, they look like a "big" solar flare. I don't have anything to compare it to. Is there a "normal" range? Or a level on the graph that would make you sit up and take notice?

Thanks, and much love to you

[MorningSong]

1inMany,

I'm hesitant to define what might be called a "normal" range for anything related to the Sun-Earth connections. It all effects us. But if I really have to narrow it down a little, the M and X-class flares can interfere with radio and satelite transmissions. Extremely strong x-class flares could potentially cause sats to malfunction or even take down mankind's electrical grids.

My own experience is that M and X-class flares seem to precede large earthquakes, as well. So, my eyebrows go up when I see those.

[MorningSong]

From spaceweather.com:

INCOMING CME: Active sunspot 1401 erupted on Jan. 19th around 16:30 UT, producing an M3-class solar flare and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud expanding almost directly toward Earth:



Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).

The cloud is also heading for Mars, due to hit the Red Planet on Jan. 24th. NASA's Curiosity rover, en route to Mars now, is equipped to study solar storms and might be able to detect a change in the energetic particle environment when the CME passes by.

Yet, NOAA/NWS Apac Weather Predictions have this:

2012-01-20 16:35 G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Possible January 23

SWPC Forecasters have determined that the CME from NOAA Region 1402 near disk center yesterday will likely pass above (north) of Earth. This glancing blow will cause just G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity. Look for the first signs of it around 1800Z (1:00 pm EST) on Sunday, January 22, with the bulk of the disturbance to occur Monday, January 23. Watch here for updates.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

[1inMany]

Thank you very, very much.

[Meesh]

The CME from the flare of 1/16 reached us earlier today. The bigger CME (from yesterday's flare) will reach us Sunday evening into Monday. It will be interesting to see what the effects are, if any.

[Wantsthetruth74]

we had internet blackouts most of the day yesterday. hmm

[MorningSong]

As of this morning around 6:00 UTC, the CME produced the 19th from the M3 flare at AR sunspot 401 began to arrive influencing the Earth's magnetosphere. Within an hour the Mag simulation went from this:



...to this:




Right now it looks like this:






http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/

The Cygnet Streamer model show the force of the incoming CME pushing our Mag field back to and beyond the area where most of mankind's satelites orbit, especially around 9:00 UTC.

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaS...-1&cygnetId=40

[Ineffable Hitchhiker]

WOWSER!

Thanks for the info MorningSong.
Immediately went on the hunt for more info.

K-index
The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0-9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval. The label 'K' origins from German 'Kennziffer'[1] meaning 'characteristic digit'.

Source

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovCNfWULsV0

CME Impact: ACE Spacecraft telemetry has recorded a sudden solar wind increase to 540 km/s. A geomagnetic sudden impulse to 30nT was recorded at 06:00 UTC.
This indicates the arrival of the expected Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Minor Geomagnetic Storm conditions are now in progress.

[MorningSong]

As usual, better late than never...here'sthe news from spaceweather.com:

CME IMPACT: Arriving a little later than expected, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at 0617 UT on Jan. 22nd. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the impact strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field and briefly exposed satellites in geosynchronous orbit to solar wind plasma. Shifting lines of magnetic force induced strong ground currents in Norway and sparked bright auroras over the upper reaches of North America. This colorful corona appeared over Chatanika, Alaska:



"We enjoyed some amazing displays as the late arriving CME made its presence felt," says photographer Ronn Murray.

The impact also disturbed Earth's ionosphere. In Atlanta, Georgia, radio engineer Pieter Ibelings monitored a 4.5 MHz CODAR (coastal radar) signal as it bounced off layers of ionization along the US east coast. "The moment of impact can be clearly seen on the CODAR radar plot," he points out:



"The CODAR transmitters are located all around the coast and are used for mapping the ocean currents to a distance of about 200 miles," Ibelings explains. "These signals also propagate through the ionosphere so they can be picked up all around the world. The signals are almost perfect for ionospheric sounding since they are linear chirps. I capture the chirp with a receiver locked to GPS both in frequency and time. I then de-chirp the waveform so I can extract the time of arrival information at my location."

The CODAR echoes show ionization layers shifting vertical position by some hundreds of kilometers, changes that surely affected the propagation of HF radio signals in the aftermath of the impact. More information about Ibelings' observations may be found here.

We are still in a Solar Storm situation:



http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/

[Ineffable Hitchhiker]

Strong M8.7 Solar Flare + CME (Jan 23, 2012) - SolarHam.com

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMtluHjp1Mg

From spaceweather.com

ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME: This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash:

The Solar and Heliosphere Observatory (SOHO) and the STEREO-Behind spacecraft have both detected a CME rapidly emerging from the blast site. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab estimate a velocity of 2200 km. There is little doubt that the cloud is heading in the general direction of Earth. A preliminary inspection of SOHO/STEREO imagery suggests that the CME will deliver a strong glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24-25 as it sails mostly north of our planet.

The Classification of X-ray Solar Flares

A solar flare is an explosion on the Sun that happens when energy stored in twisted magnetic fields (usually above sunspots) is suddenly released. Flares produce a burst of radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum, from radio waves to x-rays and gamma-rays.
Scientists classify solar flares according to their x-ray brightness in the wavelength range 1 to 8 Angstroms. There are 3 categories: X-class flares are big; they are major events that can trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms. M-class flares are medium-sized; they can cause brief radio blackouts that affect Earth's polar regions. Minor radiation storms sometimes follow an M-class flare. Compared to X- and M-class events, C-class flares are small with few noticeable consequences here on Earth.

Source

[MorningSong]

Yes! Things are truely rocking!

As for the CME that arrived yesterday and the M8 flare this morning, we are still in a storm:

From (today's alert) SW for Aviation Service Providers:

24 hour Forecast issued Jan 23 0900 UTC, Geophysical Alert Message

Solar-terrestrial indices for 22 January follow.
Solar flux 141 and estimated planetary A-index 21.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 23 January was 2.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level occurred.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be strong.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S3 level are expected.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/aviation/index.html

Couldn't get the graph to copy correctly so I'll just post-note:

Magnetic storm: G1
Solar Radiation Storm: S3
Radio Blackouts: R2

This is important info for pilots as they must fly much lower and change air routes accordingly for safety reasons (radiation exposure and communications).

[MorningSong]

More from spaceweather.com:

ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME: This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash:



The Solar and Heliosphere Observatory (SOHO) and the STEREO-Behind spacecraft have both detected a CME rapidly emerging from the blast site. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab estimate a velocity of 2200 km. There is little doubt that the cloud is heading in the general direction of Earth. A preliminary inspection of SOHO/STEREO imagery suggests that the CME will deliver a strong glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24-25 as it sails mostly north of our planet. Stay tuned for updates.

[avid]

http://www.sidc.be/products/presto/

PROTON EVENT IN PROGRESS. NOAA AR 1402 produced a M8.3 flare on Jan.
23, peaking at 03:59 UT. A proton event, linked to this flare, is
currently in progress, with >50 Mev proton flux around 40 pfu and still
rising. A halo CME has been observed with the LASCO coronagraph on board
SOHO. STEREO coronagraphic observations show a very widespread and fast
CME. This event is potentially geoeffective. More information about the
possible arrival time at Earth will be given in the coming hours.

SIDC = Solar Influences Data analysis Centre

Also fascinating info from George Ure "Going on Quake Watch" at http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Avid

[panopticon]

G'day All,

Report from IPS Oz:

COMMENT: Solar activity was reached High levels during 23 January.

Solar region 1402 produced an M8.7 flare at 0359UT on 23 January with associated radio bursts. An increase in proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was also observed in association with this flare.

Analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggests that although the majority of the CME associated with this flare is northward directed, a substantial component is in the ecliptic plane and earthward directed.

The CME is anticipated to impact Earth during the latter half of the UT day of 24 January. Significant increases in solar wind speed are expected with the impact of this CME.

Solar activity is expected to be Low during 24 January with the small possibility of further M-class flare activity.

Also a geostat warning and geomagnetic warning have been issued by them.

ABC Online reports:

Biggest solar storm since 2005 pummels Earth

US space weather monitors say a potent solar flare has unleashed the biggest radiation storm since 2005 and could disrupt some satellite communications in the polar regions.

The event started late on Sunday with a moderate-sized solar flare that erupted near the centre of the Sun, said Doug Biesecker, a physicist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Centre.

"The flare itself was nothing spectacular, but it sent off a very fast coronal mass ejection travelling 4 million miles per hour (6.4 million kph)," he said.

A rush of radiation in the form of solar protons has already begun bombarding the Earth and is likely to continue through until the end of the week.

The radiation storm is the largest of its kind since 2005 but still ranks only a three on the scale of one to five, enough to be considered "strong" but not "severe," Mr Biesecker said.

NOAA said on its website the S3 ranking means "it could, for example, cause isolated reboots of computers onboard Earth-orbiting satellites and interfere with polar radio communications".

Mr Biesecker said the polar regions are most affected when it comes to radiation storms.

For instance, the storm could spell disruptions to airline flights, oil operations, Arctic exploration and space satellites.

Night-sky viewers in Asia and Europe may be able to witness the aurora, or Northern Lights, late on Tuesday as a result of the storm.

"We don't expect major impacts from an event like this," Mr Biesecker said.

"It's the people who need GPS (global positioning system) accuracy of centimetres who have to worry, not people who want to know if you're going to turn the car 30 metres ahead."

Kind Regards,
Panopticon

Addendum:
Look at the pretty red colours...


Source: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html

[MorningSong]

Yes, I invite you all to jump over and read this thread, too.

http://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...t-in-six-years

This is a big event that noone is talking about....

Just look at all the "stuff" the CME is blowing around out in space (and towards us):

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Cltv0FT9iM

Strangely, no chemtrails today... just very normal yet rare comtrails... and the sun was almost blistering hot at 10am.... very interesting times!

[MorningSong]

Hew! My heart is still racing because of the 5.1 mag EQ we experienced this morning but at least I'm back home....and looky what I found!



Every agancy is saying the CME is over, that the storm is subsiding....by around 9:30 UTC the velocity of solar windd shot up to above 600km/sec from a near zero level!

Let the roller coaster ride begin!

Just to do justice, here's what spaceweather has to say:

SUBSIDING STORM: A geomagnetic storm caused by Monday's M9-class solar flare and Tuesday's CME impact is over. The aurora watch is cancelled for all but the highest latitudes around the Arctic Circle.

STORM RECAP: As expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24th at approximately 1500 UT (10 am EST). The impact produced a G1-class geomagnetic storm and bright auroras around the Arctic Circle. As the storm crested, Göran Strand of Östersund, Sweden, took a panoramic photo and wrapped it 360-degrees to create this composition, which he calls Planet Aurora:



Even veteran aurora watchers were impressed. "This was one of the best Northern Lights displays that I've ever seen, and I mean ever in over 5000 hours on the ice," says Andy Keen of Inari, Finland. "It was, in short, truly spectacular and something that will live with me for a lifetime." In the Abisko National Park of Sweden, aurora tour guide Chad Blakely contributed a similar report: "Eight tourists and I were treated to one of the most wonderful displays I have ever seen. The auroras began as we were eating dinner and continued into the very early hours of the morning. Words can not describe the excitement we shared."

The storm subsided as it crossed the Atlantic and petered out almost completely by the time it reached North America. Only observers in Scandinavia, Iceland and Greenland witnessed the full display:



"We went out with snowmobiles to wait for the incoming storm," says photographer Antti Pietikäinen of Muonio in the Finnish Lapland. "The show started slowly, but after 15mins the landscape was green! This was the first time for Thomas (pictured above) to see the Northern Lights. He was very happy."

[Ineffable Hitchhiker]

MORE SOLAR ACTIVITY:

Sunspot AR1402, the source of this week's powerful M9-class solar flare, is acting up again. On Jan. 26th between 0100 UT and 0600 UT, a sequence of C-class magnetic eruptions around the active region hurled a bright coronal mass ejection over the sun's north pole, shown here in a coronagraph image from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory:

The cloud is not heading toward Earth, at least not directly. This and future eruptions from AR1402 are unlikely to be geoeffective as the sunspot is turning away from our planet. By week's end it will be on the far side of the sun, blasting its CMEs toward planets on the opposite side of the solar system.

Source

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppTepP9j3XY

Sunspot 1402 produced a long duration C6.4 solar flare during the early hours of Jan 26, 2012.
This event produced a Coronal Mass Ejection off the northwest limb.
It does not look to be Earth directed.