Sun Stuff: What's up!

[Sidney]

Hi Morning song, do you know if this flare is earth-facing? And will this "NEW" sun spot endanger us, in the upcoming month as it turns to face us?

[MorningSong]

The M3-Class flare was not facing Earth and actually occured just over the NE limb of the Sun, so much of the CME blast will not be/did not affecting/affect us so much; although, as the cloud of plasma expanded away from the Sun, it did cause some radio(electromagnetic) disturbance in the northern hemisphere as reported by spaceweather.com on March 3.

This is their update as of today:

BIG SUNSPOT: A sunspot almost four times as wide as Earth itself is rotating onto the solar disk. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded its entrance on March 2nd and 3rd; click to view a 24-hour animation:



The sunspot has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. Indeed, it has already unleashed an M3-class eruption on March 2nd that created mild waves of ionization in the atmosphere over Europe.

Earth-effects could become stronger as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of additional M-class flares and a 5% chance of an X-flare during the next 24 hours.

Now, when a sunspot has a beta-gamma configuration, that means "heads up". Will it endanger us?...well, that I don't know. We can only hope the next couple of weeks as it transits in front of our blue marble that it behaves itself... lol

Other news....

The KP-index shot up this morning as solar wind from a coronal hole located in the south-western hemisphere catches up with us.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

The electron flux is stilll very unstable (and looks really nasty as it pulsates with an almost daily cycle) as numerous small slow moving CMES from as far back as Feb 27 keep arriving as well as solar wind from coronal holes.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/elec_3d.html

Just in:

Another M-class (M2) flare has occured, at around 10:29 UTC, graced from our new sunspot 1429.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

Now this, might definately cause us some heavy "static".

Here are the latest 2 alerts from SWPC:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 360
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 04 1302 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 04 1040 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 527
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 04 1230 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 04 1126 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 04 1135 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 04 1212 UTC
Duration: 46 minutes
Peak Flux: 750 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 116 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/arch...ent_month.html

[MorningSong]

From spaceweather.com this morning:

STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: Solar activity is now high. Big sunspot AR1429, which emerged on March 2nd, is crackling with strong flares. The strongest so far, an X1-class eruption, occured just ths morning, March 5th at 0413 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:



The explosion also hurled a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) into space: SOHO movie. The expanding cloud will probably deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on March 6th or 7th. (Stay tuned for updates on this possibility as more data arrive.) High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras in the nights ahead.

When the CME from today's X-flare arrives, a geomagnetic storm might already be in progress. An earlier CME is en route and nearing our planet. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud, which was produced by an M2-class eruption from sunspot AR1429 on March 4th, could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on March 6th at 04:30 UT (+/- 7 hr). See the CME's animated forecast track.

There is also a Proton Flux occuring probably provocated by yesterday's M2-class flare.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html

SIDC Presto Alert reports:

:Issued: 2012 Mar 05 0613 UTC
roduct: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
An X1.1 flare was detected by GOES this morning, peaking at 04:05 UT in
the NOAA AR 1429 (no Catania number yet) situated at N19E58. With the
limited AIA data available at the moment of writing, it appears that the
flare is accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post-eruption arcade
indicating the eruption of a CME. A halo CME was detected by the
SOHO/LASCO coronagraph. We expect the CME-associated interplanetary
disturbance to arrive at the Earth on March 7-8, possibly triggering a
minor to moderate geomagnetic storm. SEP flux at energies above 10 MeV
started to rise since around 00:00 UT today (probably resulting from the
CME associated with yesterday's M2.0 flare). Crossing the threshold of
an SEP event is probable in the coming hours. Protons from both CMEs are
delayed due to the eastern position of the CME source region.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=e_w7SXykRlg

[jcocks]

Ha! NOW we're talking!



Nothing to fear guys , unless you're into that kind of thing! It's just Father Sun doing his thing, and it's all for our own best good - nothing happens without a purpose!

We've got a full-moon coming up too - so should be real fun!

[MorningSong]

Sunspot 1429 continues to flare!

On the 4th, it produced 3 B-class flares, 5 C-class flares adn 1 M2 flare. These will not ver very geoeffective although the Proton Flux did start creeping up just before midnight UTC.

Yesterday, on the 5th, it produced 15 C-class flares, 3 M-class flares and one X1.1 flare. Each of these flares will be just a tad more geoeffective than the flares on the 4th.



Today, the saga continues....

As of 12:23 UTC, it has produced 6 C-class flares, 5 M-class flares and no X-class flare....so far!

Here's what spaceweather.com had to say this morning:

CHANCE OF FLARES: Today, NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class solar flares and a 30% chance of an X-flare from big sunspot AR1429.The active region is slowly turning to face Earth, so if any such eruptions do occur, they are increasingly likely to be geoeffective.

[Sidney]

Wow, the next week or so should be interesting. Thanks for the regular updates. I depend more on these posting than the weather. My animals are skittish today.

[MorningSong]

Oh, yes starchild111.... yesterday my cats didn't know if they wanted to stay out or in...and my dog kept barking at every car it heard pass by the house (and nearly every other sound it heard)...nearly drove me nuts!

And again, yes, this spot is really amazing. I don't ever remember seeing a sunspot that keeps the bullets flying for so long...they usually pretty much fizzle out after a big flare...this one just keeps packing them in and letting them blow.

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

[Wind]

Full moon soon... Combined with major solar flares... Not good! People always go nuts in times like these. I already saw signs of it today.

[Ineffable Hitchhiker]

I caught a filament eruption.



Source




Source





The latest from drkstrong.

THE SUN TODAY: 6 March 2012 - 4M Good

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_0jaIzlDA

Geospace is expected to become stormy in the next few days.

[MorningSong]

Final count of sunspots from Sunspot 1429 for the 6th:

13 C-class flares, 7 M-class flares, AND the Big Ones at the end of the day....and X5.4 at 00:02 UTC and X1.4 at 1:02 UTC!!!!!

Mega Proton Flux:



Here are the latest Alerts from SWPC:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX1
Serial Number: 285
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0526 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0510 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1565
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0517 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 0513 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 361
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0435 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0016 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 146
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0429 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Mar 07 0427 UTC
Deviation: 20 nT
Station: Boulder

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPC0
Serial Number: 35
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0416 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0405 UTC
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 750
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0355 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0415 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 07 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1883
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0354 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1882
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0145 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 08 0000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 106
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0353 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0415 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 07 0500 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Mar 07 0334 UTC

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 531
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0310 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0007 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 07 0117 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 07 0210 UTC
Duration: 123 minutes
Peak Flux: 7200 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 138 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
Serial Number: 54
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0256 UTC

WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0300 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 07 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 779
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0215 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0110 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1084 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 79
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0206 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0105 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 07 0114 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 07 0123 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.3
Location: N22E12
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1882
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0135 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0145 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 07 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 778
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0109 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0017 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 2273 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 78
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0057 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0002 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 07 0024 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 07 0040 UTC
X-ray Class: X5.4
Location: N17E29
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 343
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0019 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0030 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 08 0000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 166
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0009 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 0008 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 1867
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 06 1441 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1866
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 02 1425 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2186 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

From spaceweather.com:

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE: Big sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another major flare. This one is the strongest yet, an X5-class eruption on March 7th at 00:28 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme UV flash:





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CME IMPACT: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on March 7th at approximately 0400 UT. The impact was not a strong one, but it could stir up polar geomagnetic storms anyway. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text, phone.

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE: Big sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another major flare. This one is the strongest yet, an X5-class eruption on March 7th at 00:28 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme UV flash:

This eruption hurled a bright CME into space. First-look data from STEREO-B are not sufficient to determine if the cloud is heading for Earth. Our best guess is "probably, yes, but not directly toward Earth." A glancing blow to our planet's magnetosphere is possible on March 8th or 9th. Stay tuned for updates.

No images from SOHO yet, but I'd bet they are full of "snow"!

[Kristo]

My best friend's fiance is a pilot of many years.... They are traveling abroad now, but I plan on grilling him on what they teach pilots in regard to solar flares... Hmmmmm. Thanks for all the updates!!!!
Much love,
Kris

[MorningSong]

Quite calm on the sun front right now except for a C8.3 flare from sunspot 1430 around 4:41 UTC. Sunspot 1430 is more center-sun, so that flare, almost an M-classer, will be very geoeffective.

spaceweather.com has this update:

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE: Big sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another major flare. This one is the strongest yet, an X5-class eruption on March 7th at 00:28 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme UV flash: (same pict as before. ms)

This eruption hurled a bright CME into space, shown here in a movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. Although the CME is not squarely Earth-directed, it appears direct enough to deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on March 8-9. This would add to the magnetic unrest already underway at high latitudes.

The flare also accelerated energetic protons toward Earth, triggering an S3-class solar radiation storm, in progress. Such a storm is mainly a nuisance to satellites, causing occasional reboots of onboard computers and adding noise to imaging systems.

Look at all of the "snow" out there!!! This is gonna be a mess when it gets to Earth, mark my words!

[mab777]

I never saw this before.. thank´s MorningSong

[MorningSong]

Here are today's alerts from SWPC:

Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 43
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1742 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 08
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 487
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1742 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G1 (Minor) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 09
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 276
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1454 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 1448 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washinton state.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 186
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1451 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 1451 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 07 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washinton state.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX3
Serial Number: 25
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1417 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1410 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 344
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1159 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 343
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0030 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 08 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Comment: This warning UPGRADED from S1(Minor) to S2(Moderate) due to increasing flux levels.
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 751
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1159 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 750
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0415 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 08 0000 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX2
Serial Number: 49
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1022 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1015 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 275
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0852 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 0848 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washinton state.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 185
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0751 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0751 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 07 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washinton state.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 678
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0637 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 0633 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX1
Serial Number: 285
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0526 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0510 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/arch...ent_month.html

Here's what the Kp-index is doing:



The latest SIDC Presto Alert:

:Issued: 2012 Mar 07 0656 UTC
roduct: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Two X-class flares in Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) were
detected by GOES today. The X5.4 flare peaking at 00:24 UT was located
at N17E27. The X1.3 flare peaking at 01:14 UT (during the declining
phase of the X5.4 flare) was located at N22E12. According to the SDO/AIA
data, each flare was accompanied by coronal dimmings, an EIT wave and a
post-eruption arcade, indicating the eruption of two CMEs. At least one
of the CMEs was detected by SECCHI/COR2 coronagraph onboard STEREO B. At
the moment of writing the SECCHI data is too fragmented and no
SOHO/LASCO data is available, so the CME speed cannot be determined
reliably. Both flares were accompanied by type II radio bursts. The SEP
flux at energies above 10 MeV started to rise shortly before 02:00 UT
and crossed the SEP event threshold shortly before 06:00 UT. The
contemporary rise of the proton flux at energies above 50 and 100 MeV
indicates that the protons are mostly accelerated at the CME-driven
shock associated with the (either of) the two X-ray flares today. A
contribution from a possible shock that was detected by ACE at 03:35 UT
(most probably associated with the halo CME on March 4) and from the
halo CME on March 5 is not excluded. The SEP event spectrum looks rather
hard. No SOHO/CELIAS data is available at the moment to confirm the
shock detection by ACE. The solar wind speed is currently around 420
km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is around 18 nT,
with the north-south Bz component negative during extended intervals.
Disturbed geomagnetic conditions up to the minor storm level are
expected.

http://www.sidc.be/products/presto/

[MorningSong]

From solarham.com:

Updated 3/7/2012 @ 14:30 UTC
Incoming Full-Halo CME
Incoming! The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for a direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). The solar wind is expected to increase to over 800 km/s and Strong Geomagnetic Storming will be possible. This plasma cloud is the result of the X5.4 and X1.3 Solar Flare event very early this morning. In the new movie below, you can see that the plasma cloud is Full-Halo and heading this way. Click HERE to watch the latest model run.

http://solarham.com/cmewatch2.htm

Updated 3/7/2012 @ 14:30 UTC
Ongoing Radiation Storm
The high energy proton levels continue to rise following the strong solar flare from very early this morning. A strong S3 Level Radiation Storm is now in progress. The increase in proton levels are a direct result of the major solar flare activity from early Wednesday morning around Sunspot 1429.

Updated 3/7/2012 @ 18:20 UTC
CME Impact / G2 Geomagnetic Storm
A moderate G2 Geomagnetic Storm (Kp=6) was sparked by an incoming Coronal Mass Ejection impact from an explosion earlier in the week. The IMF pointed -20nT South for long periods and this likely helped intensify the storm. The Kp is now beginning to drop off somewhat.

http://www.solarham.com/

[Sidney]

Get out the tin foil!! Looking forward to a mega-migraine.

[MorningSong]

The latest from SuspiciousObservers:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=IGNCVZjYyk0

[Ineffable Hitchhiker]

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=uecMk8ZZ1uE

The large solar flare from this morning generated a bright and full halo Coronal Mass Ejection that is expected to impact Earth directly on March 8, 2012. This video shows movies by Lasco C2 and C3 as well as the latest WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=-scvqaP35gc

Major X 5.4 Solar Flare !!
The second strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 24 and the Second X-Flare from Active Region 11429, after further investigation there may have been a double X Flare as another spike was registered shortly after the initial X 5.4 event with a possible X 1.3 registered. This major event measured X 5.4 at 00:24 UTC and triggered a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout. A coronal mass ejection was captured shortly after and is likely to be headed earths way. more information shortly.
The expected CME from March 4 has impacted the earths magnetic field moments ago, causing the Bz component of the IMP to deviate sharply southward to - 20nT. Geomagnetic storm should result. A strong Proton event is now in progress.

[Turcurulin]

From the Japanese NICT site ... http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simula...ime/movie.html

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=ccxOI0RA2hg

[Ineffable Hitchhiker]

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=wIVmmP75kB4

CME IMPACT: A widely-reported CME produced by an X5-flare from sunspot AR1429 hit our planet's magnetic field on March 8th. The impact was weaker than expected, producing only a mild geomagnetic storm. Power grids and other sun-sensitive technologies were unaffected. Update: As March 9th unfolds, conditions in the wake of the CME are becoming favorable for stronger geomagnetic storming.

From spaceweather.com
CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of an X-class solar flare today from big sunspot AR1429. The sunspot is almost directly facing Earth, so any such eruptions should be geoeffective.