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Thread: Sun Stuff: What's up!

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    Avalon Member Ineffable Hitchhiker's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    THE SUN TODAY: 26 September 2011 - Severe Geomagnetic Storm

    The heart knows a hundred thousand ways to speak.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    From Space Weather Advisory Bulletin:

    Quote SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #11- 4
    2011 September 26 at 03:00 p.m. MDT (2011 September 26 2100 UTC)

    **** EARLY AUTUMN GEOMAGNETIC STORM ****

    A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from NOAA Active Region 1302 on Saturday September 24 in conjunction with an M7 strength solar flare, arrived this morning at 1237 UT (8:37am Eastern Time). It has kicked off moderate (G2) geomagnetic storms for low latitudes, but high latitudes are seeing severe (G4) levels of activity. Aurora watchers in Asia and Europe are most favorably positioned for this event, though it may persist long enough for viewers in North America. The bulk of the CME missed the Earth, meaning the storm intensity and duration are less than what they would have been in the case of a direct hit. Region 1302 remains capable of producing more activity and will be in a favorable position for that activity to have impacts on Earth for the next 3-5 days.
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/advisories/bulletins.html
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  5. Link to Post #103
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    G'day All,

    The Bz has evened out again as has the solar wind (530km/sec). Kp has also quietened down again:



    Not sure how long it's going to remain calm as NASA's iSWA webtool reports there's another CME passing 28/09 around 5am UT with an estimated magnetopause offset of 6.4Re.

    Latest from IPS Oz on the little blow we're having:
    Quote Active region 1302 remains the most significant feature on the solar disk. This region has stretched in the E-W direction and produced an M2 level flare at 26/1446UT. Regions 1303 and 1301 produced C-class flares over the day. Background X-ray flux declined to B-class levels towards the end of the UT day as regions 1295 and 1303 rotate off the visible disk. Solar wind parameters increased significantly after 12 UT following arrival of the CME observed on 24 Sep. Solar wind velocity increased from 350 to 700 km/s over the second half of the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF reached -30nT, but has settled to near-neutral values over the last quarter of the UT day. Expect solar wind parameters to remain disturbed next 1-2 days.

    A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1151UT on 26 Sep.

    ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 26/1140UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
    Space weather reports:
    Quote SUBSIDING STORM: A severe geomagnetic storm (Kp=7-8) that began yesterday when a CME hit Earth's magnetic field is subsiding. At the peak of the disturbance, auroras were sighted around both poles and in more than five US states including Michigan, New York, South Dakota, Maine, and Minnesota...

    BIG SUNSPOT: The source of all this solar and geomagnetic activity is sunspot AR1302. Measuring more than 150,000 km from end to end, the sprawling active region is visible even without a solar telescope. Fabiano Belisário Diniz saw it plainly in last night's sunset from Curitiba, Brazil...
    The sunspot has quieted down since unleashing dual X-flares on Sept. 22nd and 24th. Nevertheless, NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours. Any such eruptions would be Earth-directed as the sunspot crosses the center of the solar disk.
    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon
    "What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence.
    The only consequence is what we do."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Super Sun Blast Fears Put Russian Nuke Plants In Lockdown

    A frightening report circulating in the Kremlin today (september 25th) prepared by the Federal Atomic Energy Agency (FAAE) states that “emergency notices” have gone out to all of Russia’s nuclear power plants warning them that a potential “blast” from our Sun could cause “massive power blackouts” and could even result in “spontaneous atomic explosions.” ...

    ... the Federal Security Service (FSB) addendum to this FAAE report suggesting that the “takeout” of two of America’s top planetary scientists this past month are related and show the ends to which the US is going to in their effort to keep the truth hidden....

    http://www.eutimes.net/2011/09/super...s-in-lockdown/
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    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Black Panther,

    uhummmm...not sure this source of info is valid. Would be better to convalidate with multiple sources, IMO. I think this type of post needs it's own thread, personally.

    Let's try to stick to actual scientific data, if that's ok?
    Last edited by MorningSong; 27th September 2011 at 19:20.
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    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    thats okay
    bye
    ViRal
    .... be gentle with your anger. Sixto Rodriguez, Cape Town 20.02.2013

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    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Sorry viral.....lol...I wanted to write viRal, but on the edit thing,I couldn't see your nick...so I opted for a lesser choice....sorry! lol

    And I'll also explain to viewers that your link is International Bussines Times site...thought it was from EUTimes...my bad...didn't check. Sorry again.

    No harm meant.

    But seriously, if we can keep this thread for data, I think it would be more useful. Any other interesting articles can be posted in new threads. Than would avoid any problems with getting off topic if a good debate should get going over an article in a post.....

    What do you all say?
    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Thanks to SolarWatcher, who always puts the information together nicely!

    "I believe in God like I believe in the sun, not because I can see it but because of it all things are seen." -C.S. Lewis

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by MorningSong (here)
    Black Panther,

    uhummmm...not sure this source of info is valid. Would be better to convalidate with multiple sources, IMO. I think this type of post needs it's own thread, personally.

    Let's try to stick to actual scientific data, if that's ok?
    Your thread, you're the boss

    We never know for sure what's valid or not. That's why we are looking for the truth.

    There are various threads about the sun. And because this thread calls 'Sun Stuff' I placed it here.
    Remember Who You Are!

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    No boss but my own, my friend. I just thought that keeping a data oriented thread tidy was kinda important.

    We all thank you for contributing in the search for truth... the more the heads, the better.
    Last edited by MorningSong; 27th September 2011 at 23:49. Reason: struck an a
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    G'day All,

    Solar conditions and forecast from IPS Oz:
    Quote Solar activity declined to low levels on 27 Sep. A disappearing solar filament was observed in AR1305 (N13E45) at 0125UT. A C6.4 level flare was observed in AR1302 (N13E10) at 12058UT. Type IV radio bursts and noise continua were observed throughout the UT day. North- and East-directed CME's were observed early in the UT day. These are not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed declined steadily from 650 to 550 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT. There is a chance of isolated M to X class flares from AR1302.
    and their Geostat alert:
    Quote IPS GEOSTAT ALERT NUMBER 123: STATUS 5
    CME OBSERVED
    GEOMAGNETIC STORM POSSIBLE WITHIN 2-4 DAYS
    ISSUED AT 2115 UT ON 26 Sep 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
    FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
    So everything has returned to peace and quiet following the last weeks events.
    As AR1302 wheels around to face the Earth who knows if we'll have another X class, as Vivek pointed out Bradbury was reporting a 63% likelihood (this has been lowered to 50% since then).

    There is still the incoming CME NASA forecast for 5am UT today (which is about now) so let's see what happens. I got my tin foil hat ready ta go!

    Might make for some pretty aurora's at the very least.

    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon
    "What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence.
    The only consequence is what we do."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    New flares from 1302 today: 2 B- 3 C-and 1 M-classers:

    C9.3 at 12:38UTC then M1.9 at 13:30UTC were the strongest. Because the sunspot is nearly dead center the Earth-facing side of the Sun, they are most likely Earth-bound.





    http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    massive heatwave,lots of sweating in scotland

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Both Lasco 2 and 3 have over 10 hours missing footage from today. Skips from 10:38 (give or take a few) to 21:something. HMMM Wonder whats up with that.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    G'day All,

    All's quietish on the sun front.
    Space weather is reporting that AR1302 still has a chance of flares and that a CME is heading towards Mercury with an estimated impact date of the 1st October. Check it out here: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/...im.tim-den.gif

    Nothing heading this way.
    KP = 0, solar wind ~ 450 km/sec and everything else is similar.

    @ starchild111, Thanks for pointing out the lack of imagery from Lasco 2 & 3 on the 27th. Did you email NASA to ask why? I had a gitsy and there's no keyholes (so... WTF is a keyhole) or anything else I could see scheduled so might have been routine maintenance or maybe...
    • a Goa'uld mother ship flew past and they decided it was best to not release those images...
    • a saucer pilot (or is that jockey?) brown eyed SOHO and there's all sorts of trouble behind the scenes...
    • Crichton was caught entering a worm hole by Scorpius...
    • Dr Who chased the evil Santa away and we are all safe again...
    Who knows (pun intended).

    IPS Oz also noticed that there was incomplete Lasco imagery in their 29 September Solar Conditions Summary/Forecast:
    Quote Active Region 1302 (N13W16) produced a long-duration C2 level flare at 1247UT. There was an associated Type II radio sweep with estimated shock speed 608km/s. This event may become geoeffective. LASCO C3 imagery was incomplete for the day but showed a slow semi-halo CME after 20UT. A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at the ACE satellite platform at about 00UT. Solar wind speed stepped from 450 to 550 km/s, then declined gradually over the UT day back to 450 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF sustained -10nT for about 2 hours following the shock, then was mostly neutral to slightly positive for the remainder of the UT day. Region 1302 maintains potential for isolated M to X class flares.
    A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0024UT on 29 Sep.
    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon.

    Sources:
    http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/...im.tim-den.gif
    http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/data_query
    http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/soc/keyholes.txt
    http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/hotshots/2004_01_04/
    http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5
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  32. Link to Post #117
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    There is so much covering up, and dis-infoing out there anymore, and if data is missing, I automatically raise an eyebrow or two. When you look at that 10+ hour jump, as the imagery resumes at 20 something hours, the sun appears (to me) to be recovering from some sort of cme or flare. That said, I am only an amateur at this, but there looks to be alot if energy exiting the sun as the video resumes after the 10 hour lapse. again, NASA = Never A Straight Answer

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by starchild111 (here)
    There is so much covering up, and dis-infoing out there anymore, and if data is missing, I automatically raise an eyebrow or two. When you look at that 10+ hour jump, as the imagery resumes at 20 something hours, the sun appears (to me) to be recovering from some sort of cme or flare. That said, I am only an amateur at this, but there looks to be alot if energy exiting the sun as the video resumes after the 10 hour lapse. again, NASA = Never A Straight Answer
    G'day starchild111,

    I hope you weren't offended by my joking. It wasn't intended to be offensive.
    Your observation regards the 10 hours of missing Lasco imagery is well worth reporting and your observation of CME/Flare activity around the 20 hour mark, when the imagery returns, is also mentioned in the IPS Summary I quoted.

    So, good catch and keep at it!

    I'm no scientist either, so welcome to the club.
    I just try to supply information (and point to resources that I've learnt from) if someone asks about something I've already researched. That way I can save them time and point out information that they might interpret differently to me. This approach adds to the collective understanding of those researching and is one reason I participate at Avalon.

    This is a very dry subject (pun intended) and sometimes I try to lighten the mood (pun intended again) as I reckon it is important that people are aware of the potential danger solar weather represents to our westernised civilisation.

    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon
    "What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence.
    The only consequence is what we do."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by panopticon (here)
    Quote Posted by starchild111 (here)
    There is so much covering up, and dis-infoing out there anymore, and if data is missing, I automatically raise an eyebrow or two. When you look at that 10+ hour jump, as the imagery resumes at 20 something hours, the sun appears (to me) to be recovering from some sort of cme or flare. That said, I am only an amateur at this, but there looks to be alot if energy exiting the sun as the video resumes after the 10 hour lapse. again, NASA = Never A Straight Answer

    G'day starchild111,

    I hope you weren't offended by my joking. It wasn't intended to be offensive.
    Your observation regards the 10 hours of missing Lasco imagery is well worth reporting and your observation of CME/Flare activity around the 20 hour mark, when the imagery returns, is also mentioned in the IPS Summary I quoted.

    So, good catch and keep at it!

    I'm no scientist either, so welcome to the club.
    I just try to supply information (and point to resources that I've learnt from) if someone asks about something I've already researched. That way I can save them time and point out information that they might interpret differently to me. This approach adds to the collective understanding of those researching and is one reason I participate at Avalon.

    This is a very dry subject (pun intended) and sometimes I try to lighten the mood (pun intended again) as I reckon it is important that people are aware of the potential danger solar weather represents to our westernised civilisation.

    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon
    Not at all offended, and I appreciated the humor for sure!! I also appreciate your participation on this thread, and morningsong, and others, we all just seek the truth and facts about whats going on, in front and behind the scene.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    THE SUN TODAY: 1 October 2011 - FLARES, CMEs, & A COMET!

    The heart knows a hundred thousand ways to speak.
    ~ rumi

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