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Thread: Sun Stuff: What's up!

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    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Lasco2 and Lasco3 are blocked at September 30, so I am curious as to what's up with the sun. I do know that there was a sun diving comet on October 1st, and that usually causes fireworks up there... and sometimes EQs down here. A few M-class flares have occured from sunspot 305 which is dead center....anything it produces is Earth-bound.

    Here are a couple of vids found on TY that I cannot verify:





    Another:

    Last edited by MorningSong; 2nd October 2011 at 23:16.
    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    And another 13+ hours of missing time immediately after the x flare that followed the object imploding into the sun. Getting tired of the censorship. Heavy chemtrails today. Gee thats a surprise.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    G'day All,

    Here's IPS Oz's latest solar forecast:

    Quote Last updated 02 Oct 2011 23:40 UT

    Active Region 1305 (N12W25) produced an M3.9 level flare peaking at 0037UT. STEREO imagery shows a front-side CME first visible after 0134UT. This event appears Earth-directed with an estimated speed of 532km/s. Region 1302 (N16W54) produced an impulsive M1 level flare at 1723UT. A C7 level flare was observed in Culgoora H-Alpha imagery in AR 1305 at 2148UT. There were a few minor C level flares also observed over the UT day.

    Solar wind speed declined slowly from 520 to 440 km/s over the UT day.

    The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT with sustained periods of Southward bias 05-08UT and 19-21UT.

    Solar wind parameters should decline day one as the present weak coronal hole wind stream subsides. Expect possible shock arrivals days two to three following the flare/CME sequences observed Sep 30-Oct 02.

    Regions 1302 and 1305 maintain potential for further isolated M to X class flares.
    NASA's iSWA is not reporting a CME arrival over the coming days.

    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon
    "What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence.
    The only consequence is what we do."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    From Spaceweather.com:

    Quote COMET AND CME: A comet discovered by amateur astronomers on Friday, Sept. 30th, disintegrated in spectacular fashion the very next day when it plunged into the sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the comet's last hours. The end was punctuated by an unexpected explosion; click on the image to set the scene in motion:



    Watch the movie again. The timing of the CME so soon after the comet dove into the sun suggests a link. But what? There is no known mechanism for comets to trigger solar explosions. Before 2011 most solar physicists would have discounted the events of Oct. 1st as pure coincidence--and pure coincidence is still the most likely explanation. Earlier this year, however, the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) watched another sungrazer disintegrate in the sun's atmosphere. On July 5, 2011, the unnamed comet appeared to interact with plasma and magnetic fields in its surroundings as it fell apart. Could a puny comet cause a magnetic instability that might propagate and blossom into a impressive CME? The question is not so crazy as it once seemed to be.
    Oh, but we Avalonians already know the answers to their silly questions, don't we?
    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by MorningSong (here)
    Lasco2 and Lasco3 are blocked at September 30, so I am curious as to what's up with the sun. I do know that there was a sun diving comet on October 1st, and that usually causes fireworks up there... and sometimes EQs down here. A few M-class flares have occured from sunspot 305 which is dead center....anything it produces is Earth-bound.

    Here are a couple of vids found on TY that I cannot verify:





    Another:

    ....
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    Coincidence or Destiny, it's all in the art of knowing.... III IIII charts ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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    France Avalon Member Amzer Zo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by Rocky_Shorz (here)
    [...]
    ....
    able to read, shut off pop up notify...

    test post
    OMG! Long time no see... welcome back!
    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    G'day All,

    IPS Oz Updates reporting incoming CME with minor disturbances.

    Geomagnetic Warning:

    Quote Last updated 04 Oct 2011 03:00 UT
    SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 11/21
    ISSUED AT 03/2351Z OCTOBER 2011
    BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
    DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
    FROM 05-06 OCTOBER 2011

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
    05 Oct: Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
    06 Oct: Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
    Geostat alert:

    Quote Last updated 03 Oct 2011 23:52 UT
    IPS GEOSTAT ALERT NUMBER 124: STATUS 5
    CME OBSERVED
    GEOMAGNETIC STORM POSSIBLE WITHIN 2-4 DAYS
    ISSUED AT 2352 UT ON 03 Oct 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
    FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
    Nasa's iSWA's CME arrival prediction tool has finally caught up with IPS Oz and issued what looks like alerts for three different CME's, however on closer inspection two seem to possibly be the same one (arrival times separated by three minutes) and the other maybe an earlier estimate. Either that or they're really close together.

    So from NASA iSWA:

    Quote Event Issue Date: 2011-10-03 16:05:27.0 GMT
    CME Arrival Time: 2011-10-05 10:48:04.0 GMT
    Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
    Disturbance Duration: 15 hours
    Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
    Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.5 Re
    Quote Event Issue Date: 2011-10-03 15:39:41.0 GMT
    CME Arrival Time: 2011-10-05 11:23:07.0 GMT
    Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
    Disturbance Duration: 14 hours
    Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
    Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.5 Re
    Quote Event Issue Date: 2011-10-03 16:44:22.0 GMT
    CME Arrival Time: 2011-10-05 11:23:04.0 GMT
    Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
    Disturbance Duration: 14 hours
    Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
    Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.5 Re
    Just seems like NASA can't get it together, must have been a big weekend!
    For IPS Oz just another day...

    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon
    "What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence.
    The only consequence is what we do."

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    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    There has been a huge flare today... I have no data yet:

    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Holy crfapp.. That is big!!

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Wow MorningSong. That solar flare shot is amazing!




    Earth Directed CME / Solar Watch Oct 5, 2011

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Hi I 've been interested in the "what's up with the sun thread" and i have read through the last page of this one and can see that there is a high level of specialism here. Therefore, you may be just the people to answer the following question as my level of technical understanding on how to access the data is next to nothing.

    The sun and moon seem to transiting lower for this time of year, there also is a discernible movement of magnetic north to the east. can you compare current solar and lunar transits with previous years or is this a completely normal state of affairs? and one last question why did we have a very close transit of the moon earlier this year?

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Of note is that Earth's magnetic field has shown a tremendous uptick of late, and in particular, just in the last number of hours. This link is for a magnetic field satellite, and it continually updated. Normal Earth magnetic field is around 2 or 3 in the top section of this chart! Note that these levels have been occurring since just before Elenin had it's conjunction, with a huge spike, similar to what is occurring now, during the main conjunction, and it had 'tapered off' for the last week - until Now!
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_7d.html

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    @Pete: Sorry, I can't help you there. I know a lot of people say tht the sun and moon appear to be out of place recently, but I really don't know where to get the info needed to verify this....wish I did.

    @Kindred: Today Earth is being buffered by 3 CME's that erupted from the sun on the 3rd. That does effect our magnetosphere, yes. The sun has been very active since just before the dates you mention, so, yes, the levels have been rollercoastering up and down for a while.

    From spaceweather.com:

    Quote GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of minor geomagnetic storms on Oct. 5th and 6th as a series of two to three CMEs sweeps past our planet. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
    And this, too:

    Quote FARSIDE CME: Yesterday, October 4th, something exploded on the far side of the sun and propelled a spectacular CME into space. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud as it emerged from behind the sun's limb:



    Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have combined observations from SOHO and the twin STEREO spacecraft to calculate the CME's trajectory: It is heading for Mercury. The CME will hit the innermost planet on Oct. 5th around 04:30 UT plus minus 7 hours. Energetic particles accelerated by shock waves at the leading edge of the cloud could also have minor effects on the MESSENGER probe in orbit around Mercury. The CME's forecast track shows that Venus might also receive a blow on Oct. 6th.
    Hmmm..... Are we going to loose Mercury and other planets to solar wind erosion? Like the Crop Circle showed in 2008 (dont' remember which one it was)? This was reported the other day:

    http://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...-Mag-Field-and....



    EDit: Found it:

    Last edited by MorningSong; 5th October 2011 at 15:41.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    OMG! The Mag field is all funked out!

    Last edited by MorningSong; 6th October 2011 at 00:55.
    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

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    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Thanks you guys, that's really really cool. So what's it all mean? I should stock up on sunscreen?

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by Pete (here)
    Hi I 've been interested in the "what's up with the sun thread" and i have read through the last page of this one and can see that there is a high level of specialism here. Therefore, you may be just the people to answer the following question as my level of technical understanding on how to access the data is next to nothing.

    The sun and moon seem to transiting lower for this time of year, there also is a discernible movement of magnetic north to the east. can you compare current solar and lunar transits with previous years or is this a completely normal state of affairs? and one last question why did we have a very close transit of the moon earlier this year?

    Hi Pete, you could check this thread for real data on the subject starting here : http://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...l=1#post314562
    "La liberté de chacun s'arrête là où commence celle des autres"
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    The psycho's utter terror: "This universe is entirely composed -- but for one trivial exception -- of others."

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  31. Link to Post #137
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    I woke up feeling out of sorts and have a huge headache this morning.
    Looking at that warped magnetic field screen shot explains alot!

    G1 Geomagnetic Storm / Magnetosphere Simulation Oct 5, 2011





    Geomagnetic storm explained in WIKI

    A geomagnetic storm is caused by a solar wind shock wave and/or cloud of magnetic field which interacts with the Earth's magnetic field. The increase in the solar wind pressure initially compresses the magnetosphere and the solar wind magnetic field will interact with the Earth’s magnetic field and transfer an increased amount of energy into the magnetosphere. Both interactions cause an increase in movement of plasma through the magnetosphere (driven by increased electric fields inside the magnetosphere) and an increase in electric current in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. During the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, electric current in the magnetosphere create magnetic force which pushes out the boundary between the magnetosphere and the solar wind. The disturbance in the interplanetary medium which drives the geomagnetic storm may be due to a solar coronal mass ejection (CME) or a high speed stream (co-rotating interaction region or CIR)[1] of the solar wind originating from a region of weak magnetic field on the Sun’s surface. The frequency of geomagnetic storms increases and decreases with the sunspot cycle. CME driven storms are more common during the maximum of the solar cycle and CIR driven storms are more common during the minimum of the solar cycle.


    Solar particles interact with earth´s magnetosphere.
    Image courtesy WIKIPEDIA




    6.10.2011 @ 6:42





    Even though a G 1 is not a major geomagnetic storm, I think I will don my tinfoil hat today.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    For what it's worth, my head hurts too.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    G'day All,

    @ Pete: I have no answers for you on this one either blue. I've heard the stories but have not noticed any differences here in Oz.
    @ Amzer zo: Excellent thread link bloke. Thanks I'd missed that one.

    Solar activity is low, space weather mild.
    Possibility of moderate increase to solar wind over the next few days due to coronal hole.
    Otherwise a nice period of calm.

    IPS Oz Latest Solar Forecast:

    Quote Last updated 09 Oct 2011 23:31 UT

    Solar activity was Low today. One C1.7 flare was observed from region 1314(N26E72) today.

    Solar wind speed varied between around 300 km/s and 360 km/s during the UT day today.

    The Bz component of the IMF varied between +/-6nT for most parts of the day.

    Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next three days.

    Solar wind stream parameters showed slight enhancement due to the anticipated effect of a coronal hole today.
    This coronal hole effect may be expected to continue on 10 October.
    Don't worry though as Sunspot 11314 is on its way around and Bradford seems pretty excited about it.

    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon
    "What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence.
    The only consequence is what we do."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    I have been watching this for a while too and been paying close attention to the sun, and I have noticed that the sun seems liked its much larger than it used to be. If not twice as big, maybe 25 to 50% bigger. I cant figure it out. weird.

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