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Thread: Sun Stuff: What's up!

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    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Solar Update: Despite the sunspot count (10 right now), solar activity remains relatively low to medium level. Sunspot 1309 has rotated onto the western limb and Sunspot 1315 appears to have faded away. A new region that formed towards the east of sprawling Sunspot group 1319 now looks to be fading as well.



    The three largest Sunspot groups are currently 1314, 1316 and 1319. There have been 14 C-class flares in the past 2 days.

    There will remain the chance for C-Class flares and a 35% possibility for M-Class events.

    Just for you inquisitive minds, here's what happens to the atmosphere when there is a Earth-bound class C5 flare:

    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by MorningSong (here)
    Just for you inquisitive minds, here's what happens to the atmosphere when there is a Earth-bound class C5 flare.
    G'day Morning Song,

    Thanks for sharing that video.
    It was really interesting to "see" the effect on the atmosphere of such a small flare.

    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon
    "What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence.
    The only consequence is what we do."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    G'day All,

    IPS Oz reports minor C-class flares on the 16th (UT) and the likelihood of continued C-class flares with possible M-class over the next few days.

    Anyway here's the IPS Oz report:

    Quote C-class flare activity was observed during 16 October.
    Further C-class flare activity is possible over the next few days with the small chance of M-class flares.
    A Type II sweep was observed at 1357UT on 16 October in association with a C1-flare from region 1317. The estimated shock speed from this sweep was 618 km/s. Analysis of STEREO B satellite imagery suggests a very weak CME was observed in the ecliptic plane around the time of this event, however, LASCO C2 imagery suggests CME activity around this time is directed to the west. Further imagery and analysis is required to ascertain the geoeffectiveness of this event, however, any impact is likely to be only weakly geoeffective and anticipated to occur during the latter half of 19 October.

    Solar wind declined slowly during 16 October.

    Solar wind speeds may increase slightly during the latter half of 19 October under the influence of possible CME effects.

    Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1302 is due for return to the north-east limb around 18 Oct. Also, previously M-flare(s) producing region 1305 is due for return to the north-east limb around this date.
    Bradford flare monitor is not predicting a high likelihood of flare activity at the moment, however spaceweather.com is reporting that NOAA is forecasting a 40% chance of an M-class flare in the next 24 hours. There are no coronal holes facing the Earth either.

    NASA is reporting that SOHO is still in its keyhole period (10th October to 23rd) and that a 180 degree roll will be executed on the 20th (UT). So we may experience further problems with imagery due to this.

    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon
    "What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence.
    The only consequence is what we do."

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    Avalon Member MorningSong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Another approaching sun-diving comet was sited yesterday (but it's tinsy-winsy) and should disappear into the sun today:

    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    G'day All,

    October 22, 2011 from around 10:30 UT there was a long duration M 1.3 flare and CME from region 1314.
    This is not expected to effect the Earth.
    It's easy to forget how big these events really can be so here's a video showing the images from SOHO's Lasco C2 & C3 instruments.
    C2 is a close in view and C3 is a wider one.



    All of these images are downloadable from the SOHO website:
    http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/data_query

    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon
    "What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence.
    The only consequence is what we do."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    LDE Flare cause fast CME
    (Long Duration Event causes fast Coronal Mass Ejection)





    Twin M1.3 Flares & Huge CME Oct 22, 2011



    "Solar Activity continues to be moderate with more low level M-Class flares taking place. Two CME's are seen in Lasco images and one of those caused by a filament burst is probably directed towards earth."
    The heart knows a hundred thousand ways to speak.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Looks like a dragon. Thank you for posting those, explains my melancholy mood yesterday. I wonder if being a Leo (sun sign) could have something do do with why I am so greatly affected by these events.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    G'day All,

    Here's the predicted transit of the 22 October CME from Goddard:



    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon

    Source:
    http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/...im.tim-den.gif
    "What we think, or what we know, or what we believe is, in the end, of little consequence.
    The only consequence is what we do."

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    G'day All,

    Interesting 24 hours.
    ISWA isn't reporting any CME impact data within its 'CME Arrival Time Prediction' tool, yet IPS Oz was predicting that a CME appeared to be Earth bound:
    Quote Analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggests that a CME observed approximately 00UT on 22 October is likely to have a glancing impact at the Earth during the latter half of the UT day of 24 October. Active levels are possible for the Australian region during 24-25 October with Storm levels possible at high latitudes.
    I also don't understand why the warnings at the top of this page are reporting "normal" & "quiet" when it should be reporting "normal" & "storm" as we are in a geomagnetic storm at the moment. Peculiar.



    Spaceweather reports:
    Quote A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 24th at approximately 1800 UT (02:00 pm EDT). According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the impact caused a strong compression of Earth's magnetic field, allowing solar wind to penetrate all the way down to geosynchronous orbit for a brief period between 19:06 UT and 19:11 UT. Earth-orbiting spacecraft could have been directly exposed to solar wind plasma during that time.
    Anyway there's been no flares reported today and here is IPS Oz's summary and forecast:
    Quote Solar activity has been Very Low over the last 24 hours.
    Solar activity is expected to be Low over the next 3 days.
    The solar wind speed remained around 350km/s for most of the UT day, increasing to ~500km/s with a strong shock observed at at 1749UT, probably due to the arrival of the 22/0058 CME.
    IMF Bz was mostly neutral until the shock, subsequently varying between +/-20nT.
    If you get a chance check out the IPS Oz Magnetopause model for the last day or so to see how close the magnetopause boundary got to the satellites..

    Kind Regards,
    Panopticon

    Addendum:
    I reported that the warning for the geomagnetic storm weren't appearing at the top of the page, posted and then next thing ya know they are. Buggar. hehehehehe
    Last edited by panopticon; 25th October 2011 at 05:56.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    It even produced a CME strong enough for the southern us to enjoy these beautiful Northern lights!!! Enjoy


    http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/vid...rn-us-14808921

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Here's the news from spaceweather.com.....better late than never...

    Quote SUBSIDING STORM: The intense geomagnetic storm of Oct. 24-25 (described below) has subsided and US skies are returning to normal. If you missed the show, don't worry. The Northern Lights will be back. For much of the past few years, the sun has been in a quiet state; but solar activity is cyclical and the sun appears to be waking up again. Forecasters expect new Solar Cycle 24 to peak in 2012-2013 with many more chances to see auroras in unfamiliar places.

    AURORAS IN THE USA: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth on Oct. 24th at approximately 1800 UT (2:00 pm EDT). The impact strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, directly exposing geosynchronous satellites to solar wind plasma, and sparked an intense geomagnetic storm. As night fell over North America, auroras spilled across the Canadian border into the contiguous United States. A US Department of Defense satellite photographed the crossing:



    "This shows the auroras on Oct. 25th at 0140 GMT," says Paul McCrone of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center in Monterey, California. He created the image using visual and infrared data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's F18 polar orbiter. DMSP satellites carry low light cameras for nightime monitoring of moonlit clouds, city lights and auroras. Some of the auroras recorded by the F18 on Oct. 25th were as bright as the city lights underneath.

    This "big picture" from orbit makes sense of what happened next. The bright band swept south and, before the night was over, auroras were sighted in more than thirty US states: Alabama, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Missouri, Illinois, Nebraska, Kentucky, North Carolina, Indiana, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, Maryland, New York, Montana, Ohio, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Washington, Virginia, Texas, Arizona, Minnesota, Maine, Michigan, Montana, Oregon, Arkansas and California.

    THE INSTIGATING EXPLOSION: The CME that hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 24th left the sun almost two days earlier. It was propelled in our direction by an unstable magnetic filament, which erupted around 0100 UT on Oct. 22nd. This movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory shows the cloud expanding toward Earth in the first hours after the explosion:



    Traveling faster than two million mph, the cloud took about 41 hours to cross the sun-Earth divide. The CME was so geoeffective because it contained a knot of south-pointing magnetic fields. These fields partially cancelled Earth's north-pointing magnetic field at the equator, allowing solar wind plasma to penetrate deeply into Earth's magnetosphere.
    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Just posted this on another thread and didn't notice this one... so I'm posting it again here


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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Two M-class flares have occured today from an area just over the Northeastern side of the sun:

    http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/



    Last edited by MorningSong; 31st October 2011 at 21:28.
    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
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    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!








    Glitch in the matrix?







    The heart knows a hundred thousand ways to speak.
    ~ rumi

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Hey, Folks. It is getting ever more difficult for me to be on top of the Sun's situation because of time lags in internet data distribution/documentation and data not divulged outright, but I am still trying to keep you all as updated as can be as I find the available info.

    Right now, the Sun's Earth-facing side has been quite calm with only a few C-class flares and only 7 numbered sunspots, but that will change in the next few days as a very active area in the Northeastern (and Southeastern) hemisphere turns around our way. As of only yesterday, two areas only identified with it's coordinates (N20E88, N21E88, N19E88 as well as S13E88, S16E88, S15E88) have been popping off C-class and M-class flares in abundance.

    http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

    According to SolarMonitor.org, solar activity is considered HIGH with the most active region being sunspot 330, with possibilities of X-flare 2%, M-falre 14% and C-flare 38%.

    http://solarmonitor.org/

    A Solar Storm is now underway with an alert for Kp index of 5. This may be caused from solar wind from a coronal hole as predicted by spaceweather.com on Oct. 30th.

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

    http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?...h=10&year=2011

    The Mag-field is having a "static hair day" which is a pretty good thing even though the recombination on the backside of the Earth continues, letting solar plasma into our atmosphere, favoring visible auroras and electrification of our upper atmosphere.

    http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/

    Heads up and keep an eye on the skies!
    Last edited by MorningSong; 1st November 2011 at 12:32.
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    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!



    G1 Geomagnetic Storm & Filament Eruption Nov 2, 2011
    SOLAR ACTIVITY PICKING UP: A huge sunspot is emerging over the sun's NE limb. Yesterday it unleashed three M-class solar flares and hurled a coronal mass ejections into space.
    Geoeffective solar activity could increase in the days ahead as the sun's rotation turns the sunspot toward Earth.
    Last edited by astrid; 3rd November 2011 at 09:04.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by astrid (here)
    G1 Geomagnetic Storm & Filament Eruption Nov 2, 2011
    SOLAR ACTIVITY PICKING UP: A huge sunspot is emerging over the sun's NE limb. Yesterday it unleashed three M-class solar flares and hurled a coronal mass ejections into space.
    Geoeffective solar activity could increase in the days ahead as the sun's rotation turns the sunspot toward Earth.

    Indeed.
    See the next photo. I always seem to arrive at this thread when there are the weirdest photos.
    I hope you don´t mind me posting them here, MorningSong. (kind of saving them for posterity.)
    I love this thread and have learnt so much.







    Today´s sunflares




    Hot! Flare and CME! Late on November 2, the newest sunspot group, AR11339 produced an M4.3 flare with a peak in X-ray emission at ~22:00 UTC. There was a CME that appears to be associated off to the Northeast limb, not Earth directed. Here is a video of the flare observed in the 131 Angstrom wavelength from the SDO/AIA instrument. This wavelength shows plasma in the corona with temperatures up to about 15 Million Kelvin! (these high temperatures are observed in solar flares) and occur when Iron is super heated, having almost all of its electrons stripped away.


    I was also able to follow drkstrong´s channel with updates but unfortunately only see this when wanting to see his videos :-
    Quote Unfortunately, this video is not available in Germany because it may contain music for which GEMA has not granted the respective music rights.
    The videos are very informative and up to date.
    At the moment he is not adding his own voice/audio because he is busy writing a couple of papers.
    So of anyone else is able to watch his videos, I highly recommend them.



    edit :-
    Yay!
    He changed the music.


    THE SUN TODAY: 3 November 2011 - M4 Flare (plus!)

    Last edited by Ineffable Hitchhiker; 3rd November 2011 at 13:39. Reason: added video
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Wonderfully good finds, Astrid and Ineffable! Thanks for posting them and keep up the good work!
    Last edited by MorningSong; 3rd November 2011 at 16:52.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!



    Also there is an article here worth reading on
    Linda Moulton Howe's site.

    http://www.earthfiles.com/news.php?I...tegory=Science
    Last edited by astrid; 4th November 2011 at 01:53.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Invest in a Faraday cage to protect your flashlights, solar lamps, batteries, emergency hand crank radios, any radios, computers, car batteries, or anything else, depending on how large a container you have.

    Boy that sounds technical and complicated. Nope. Remember these?
    Click image for larger version

Name:	steel_trash_bin.jpg
Views:	37
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ID:	11044

    Also, for the small stuff, those holiday cookie tins would work (as long as you sand off the paint on the inner lid, so it has a metal on metal contact).

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