Tirelessly updating Avalon on the El Hierro eruption.

[Hervé]

Starting a new page so that the following graphs are at its top.

Just keep an eye on these diagrams, especially the ones recording changes in elevations (right hand side of GPS Solutions diagrams) around El Hierro as the one indicator of possible troubles if showing a dramatic increase.

Polly’s* latest:

How it's looking like now from Las Puntas de La Frontera:

For the last 15 days, it now shows whatever Polly is up to as far as seismic activity is concerned:

For the last 90 days:

Click on above image to go to the IGN list of registered EQs

GPS solutions from IGN:

Deformaciones

GPS Stations location:

Location of recent EQs:

Earthquakes in Canary Islands

Current activity in El Hierro: http://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/vlc-ayer-y-hoy


Refresh your browser page to get the latest numbers and positions.

* : Polly was so named from the “polycephalic snake” look of the initial cumulative energy graph (see post # 327).
The name became most appropriate when the eruption from multiple mouths/vents/cones/heads started to develop.


PS: Check this IGN site for other pertinent data: http://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/vlc-area-volcanologia

[Hervé]

Update October 2014:

A big

THANK YOU !

to the

10,000

viewers, new and veteran, who have been keeping an eye on El Hierro since August 2014!

***


THANK YOU !

to the more than 260,000 viewers who visited this thread since September 2011!

Since July 2011, IGN has officially logged 22,061 tremors at El Hierro...
... and still counting since the rumbling seismic activity is still on going!

Thank you for your support and for dropping by!




THANKS AGAIN !

Hello all!

Since Polly returned to her quiet sleep and dreams of new islands, so is this thread returning to hibernation until Polly's next agitated dreams...

Just keep an eye on the diagrams at the top of this page especially the ones recording changes in elevations around El Hierro as the one indicator of possible troubles if showing a dramatic increase.

A+

Amzer Zo

PS: Check this IGN site for pertinent data: http://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/vlc-area-volcanologia

[Hervé]

Update November 2014:

A big

THANK YOU !

to the

10,000

viewers, new and assiduous veteran, who have been keeping an eye on El Hierro since October 2014!

***


THANK YOU !

to the more than 270,000 viewers who visited this thread since September 2011!

Since July 2011, IGN has officially logged 22,137 tremors at El Hierro...
... and still counting since the rumbling seismic activity is still on going!

Thank you for your support and for dropping by!




THANKS AGAIN !

Hello all!

Since Polly seems to be going into a hibernation phase and wishing her a quiet sleep and dreams of new islands, so is this thread returning to hibernation until Polly's next agitated dreams...

Just keep an eye on the diagrams at the top of this page especially the ones recording changes in elevations around El Hierro as the one indicator of possible troubles if showing a dramatic increase.

A+

Amzer Zo

PS: Check this IGN site for pertinent data: http://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/vlc-area-volcanologia

[Hervé]

Well, it's been a long while, but:

Tenerife volcano news & activity updates:

Teide volcano (Tenerife Island, Canaries): magnitude 3 earthquake under the volcano

Friday Jan 06, 2017 17:41 PM | BY: T

Location of today's earthquake under Teide volcano

A shallow magnitude 3 earthquake occurred almost directly under the summit of Teide volcano in 3 km depth today (at 12:18 UTC).

Whether the quake is volcanic in origin and might be a sign of a gradual reawakening of the volcano is impossible to say, but it is important to follow the volcano's seismic activity closely.

• All news about: Tenerife volcano
• Information about: Tenerife volcano

---
Links / Sources:

• Volcano Earthquake Report for 6 Jan 2017

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Hervé (here)
Well, it's been a long while, but:

Tenerife volcano news & activity updates:

Teide volcano (Tenerife Island, Canaries): magnitude 3 earthquake under the volcano

Nine months later ... more tremors from the Canary Islands, as reported in the UK Express: Volcano warning: Canary Islands panic as earthquakes hit La Palma – 40 tremors in 48 hours:

==============

La Palma was rocked by more than 40 seismic movements of low magnitude and intensity between 1.5 and 2.7 on the Richter scale, according to the data of the National Geographic Institute.

The biggest earthquake, recorded at around 1pm on Saturday, had a magnitude of 2.7 and took place in the area of the Natural Park Cumbre Vieja, 28 kilometres deep.

The second largest quake, of 2.6, took place at 1.23pm on Sunday in the same area, while the third quake erupted at midnight on Monday, reaching a magnitude of 2.1, according to the Volcanological Institute of the Canary Islands (Involcan).

The earthquakes have sparked panic across the Canary Islands, with volcano experts pulled in to examine the unusual seismic activity.

María José Blanco, director of the National Geographic Institute in the Canary Islands, said the island has "never recorded a similar swarm" and although the energy levels are low and very deep, it is different from the seismic activity they have recorded so far.

The Ministry of Territorial Policy, Sustainability and Security of the Government of the Canary Islands, respecting the Special Plan for Civil Protection and Emergency Care for Volcanic Hazards, will meet with the Scientific Committee of Evaluation and Monitoring of Volcanic Phenomena, to evaluate the data obtained from monitoring stations on the island.

A scientific team of five will also visit La Palma to keep track of the tremors in situ.

Ms Blanco said the team will start to increase the number of seismic stations in the volcanic monitoring network in a bid to develop the geochemical measurements usually carried out in the island of La Palma.

So far, the earthquakes have not been felt by residents because they are occurring at a great depth.

The last significant seismic activity in the archipelago took place in 2011 on the island of El Hierro, which finally led to the eruption of an underwater volcano in the southeast of the island.

==============

There are images and a bit more text at the above UK Express link.

[Hervé]

Polly burped

Scientists on alert as underwater volcano Tagoro in the Canary Islands bursts into life

Sean Martin The Express (UK)
Fri, 13 Oct 2017 18:11 UTC

The underwater volcano near El Hierro is simmering

On October 10, 2011, the Tagoro underwater volcano near to the island of El Hierro, the smallest of the isles in the Canaries, began bursting into life.

The volcano beneath the surface began spewing ash and lava which bubbled to the surface - and although that eruption was not too strong, scientists are monitoring the volcano as they are wary it could burst into life with more power.

A project known as Vulcano-II-1017 from the Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness and Feder, in conjunction with the Spanish Institute of Oceanography, the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, the University of La Laguna and the Museum of Nature and Man of Tenerife, will monitor the situation to see if the volcano poses any danger.

The reason experts are keeping a close eye on it is because the volcano is still rumbling six years after its eruption near to the tourist hotspot.

The scientists say it is still emitting "large quantities of magma, heat and gases to the marine environment" to the surrounding areas.

However, it is not all doom and gloom.

The team say that the volcanic burst has fertilised the region beneath the surface, contributing to one of the most productive and richest ecosystems around.

The Tagoro volcano is not the only volcano causing problems for the Canary islands.

La Palma volcano, which is an island itself in the Canaries, has experienced 50 earthquakes in just three days recently, prompting fears that it may blow.

The biggest earthquake, recorded at around 1pm on Saturday, October 7, was a magnitude 2.7 and took place in the area of the Natural Park Cumbre Vieja, 28 kilometres deep.

The second largest quake, of 2.6, took place at 1.23pm on Sunday in the same area, while the third quake erupted at midnight on Monday, reaching a magnitude of 2.1, according to Involcan.

This then rose to 50 tremors on Monday after 10 more quakes were recorded from the huge Cumbre Vieja volcano, which sits on La Palma, overnight and into dawn.

However, director of the Canarian Institute of Volcanology Nemesio Pérez, moved to calm fears.

He said: "It is absolutely normal for active volcanoes to register seismic swarms such as the one that this weekend has been recorded in the Cumbre Vieja volcano."


Related:
40 earthquake tremors in 48 hours hit La Palma, Canary Islands

[Hervé]

El Hierro volcano

shield volcano 1500 m, Canary Islands (Spain), 27.63°N / -17.99°W

Nearby recent earthquakes (within 30km radius):

Earthquake list: past 7 days (only M>=-0.8) (1 quakes)

all M>2 M>3 M>4 M>5 | latest |

show

Updated: Sun, 15 Oct 13:37 UTC (GMT)

Time----------------- 10 Oct 01:18 UTCM
Mag. / Depth--------- 2.1 / 24 km - [info]
Distance------------- 4 km
Location------------- S EL PINAR.IHI
Map----------------- [Map]
Source-------------- IGN

Tue, 10 Oct Tue,

[ThePythonicCow]

From the UK Express, La Palma continues to shake:

La Palma volcano: Map shows Canary Islands SMASHED by HUNDREDS of earthquakes in 15 hours:

============

LA Palma has been smashed by hundreds of earthquakes in just 15 hours raising fears the Canary Island's volcano is about to erupt.

By Rob Virtue, PUBLISHED: 10:12, Mon, Oct 16, 2017 | UPDATED: 13:28, Mon, Oct 16, 2017

A shock map has been released by Spanish authorities showing where the tremors hit in the area surrounding the deadly Cumbre Vieja.

There were 44 earthquakes recorded up to 2.1 magnitude hit between Friday at 1.52pm and Saturday to 4.17am.

But experts believe the total number, including ones too small to be located, within the seismic storm was 352.

The quakes follow another seismic storm the weekend before. which saw around 50 tremors in three days, between 1.5 and 2.7 on the Richter Scale.

============

[Hervé]

...

Volcano monitoring: http://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/vlc-area-volcanologia


El Hierro data: http://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/vlc-serie-hierro

La Palma data: http://www.ign.es/resources/volcanol...S_eventos.html

Seismic Signals:

• Quasi real time

• Yesterday and today

Earthquakes Canarias, last 10 days (mag 1.5 and higher): http://www.ign.es/web/resources/volc.../canarias.html

Seismograms, Canary Islands: http://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/vlc-ayer-y-hoy

[Hervé]

...

That's when Polly woke up: 4.0 mbLg ATLÁNTICO-CANARIAS 2017/10/10 05:38:41 III -26Km +info

Where it's at today:

The last time similar seismograms appeared, it was indicative of magma + gases moving around.

[Hervé]

...

[Hervé]

...




Magma and/or gases motion fizzling out

[Hervé]

I forgot about it: Happy belated birthday Polly (AKA "Tagoro")!

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=CbpH1XrnAGQ

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=vQ5-yXPlAH0

Sixth Anniversary of the Tagoro Volcano Eruption

VulcanoElHierro
Published on Oct 10, 2017

On October 10, 2011, today 6 years ago, Spanish territory was expanded with the emergence of a new volcanic edifice: the Tagoro submarine volcano, on the island of El Hierro, which, for more than 6 months, issued into the marine environment large quantities of magma, heat and gases, which produced strong physicochemical anomalies in one of the richest and most productive ecosystems in Europe. To this day, this same volcano, still active in the degassing phase, has been responsible for emitting large amounts of nutrients that have produced a natural fertilization effect that is allowing the recovery of the ecosystem.

On the occasion of the sixth anniversary of the birth of the Tagoro submarine volcano, all the scientific and technical teams of the Vulcano and Vulcana projects have made a 4-minute informative video showing, for the first time, underwater images acquired with the ROV Liropus 2000, of the Spanish Institute of Oceanography, during the Vulcana0417 campaign in April of this year. The images clearly show these exits of heat and gas by cracks housed in the volcanic edifice around the primary and secondary craters and, associated with them, large extensions of whitish bacterial coats linked to the consumption of sulfur. In addition, it shows not only the difficulty of measurements with instruments placed inside the crater, but also, the beauty of nature and how it, 6 years later, has almost colonized the area.

---------------------------------------

On the geophysics research side:

DiarioElHierro, Valverde (4/10/2017. 12:25 horas)

How to predict the magnitude of a future volcanic eruption in El Hierro

In July 2011 the first signs of volcanic activity in El Hierro were detected. Months later, the October 10 underwater eruption occurred under the Mar de las Calmas which was officially ended on March 5, 2012. However, volcanic activity on the island did not cease. From March 2012 to March 2014, there were at least six new episodes of volcanic reactivation that were accompanied by high seismic activity and deformation of the terrain throughout El Hierro.

Click picture for larger version.

A team from the National Geographic Institute, in collaboration with the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, has analyzed the relationship between seismicity and deformation throughout all volcanic reactivations and related them.

The study proposes a new form of forecast that could obtain a previous estimate of the order of magnitude of the seismic energy.

This work, which has been published recently in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, argues that although in all reactivations the deformation and seismicity begin simultaneously, in those volcanic reactivations in which the seismicity migrated for a longer time, between the moments of greater growth of both signals.

On the other hand, it has been found that the logarithms of the volume of magma intruded and of the seismic energy released in the different reactivations follow a linear relationship.

How to estimate the order of magnitude of the seismic energy released
The study proposes a new form of forecast that, under certain conditions, could obtain a previous estimate of the order of magnitude of the seismic energy that would be released from data of deformation of the terrain.

Given that the seven volcanic reactivations studied hitherto are based on the linear relationship observed between the logarithms of the volume of magma intruded and the seismic energy released, one would expect that a hypothetical new volcanic reactivation in El Hierro would also be adapted to this linear relation. If, in addition to meeting this first condition, a sufficient time lag between deformation and seismicity, an a priori estimate of the order of magnitude of the seismic energy that would be released during the reactivation could be obtained.

This research provides a new tool for the management of the volcanic emergency in El Hierro that would be useful for Civil Protection authorities.

[Hervé]

...

Check this page for the current seismic activity in El Hierro: http://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/vlc-ayer-y-hoy#

... and this page for the recent earthquakes in the Canary islands: http://www.ign.es/web/resources/volc.../canarias.html

... this one for Spain and vicinity: http://www.ign.es/web/resources/sism...imos/prox.html

Recent earthquakes, Europe: https://www.emsc-csem.org/#2

Recent earthquakes, worldwide: http://www.ign.es/web/resources/sism...ejanos_pg.html

[ThePythonicCow]

Ken, over at Redefininggod.com, makes an excellent point regarding the risk (or lack thereof) to the East Coast of the USA from a collapse of any of the Canary Islands:

I recommend against believing in all the natural disaster hype that’s flying around right now, especially the Cumbre Vieja scenario. Just have a look at the size of the CV compared to the size of the East Coast. It is physically impossible for such a small landmass moving at landslide speed to displace enough water to swamp such a huge landmass an entire ocean away. It would be like dropping a marble into one end of an Olympic-size swimming pool and expecting a five foot tidal wave to crash over the other end. There’s just not enough volume or kinetic energy to do the job.

[Hervé]

Fears growing over possible eruption of Canary Island's Mount Teide, nearly 300 earthquakes have shaken the island within 10 days

Sputnik
Tue, 08 May 2018 21:49 UTC

Nearly 300 earthquakes have been recorded in just ten days near Spain’s Canary Islands raising fears of a volcanic eruption.

Stepped-up tremors of unascertained reasons has scared one of the most popular holiday destination, the Canary islands, ahead of summer high season, raising fears [of a] devastating natural disasters. The local government holds an urgent meeting to discuss why [it] might happen.

Almost 300 earthquakes have shaken the territory of the biggest islands of the Canary archipelago, Tenerife and Gran Canaria, over the last ten days. According to the Spanish National Geographic Institute, the biggest one, with a 3.2 magnitude on the Richter scale, happened 35 km away from the Port of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.

The area is the home to the world's third-tallest volcano, Mount Teide and the National Park of the same name, which is incidentally one of the most visited tourist destinations, with lots of volcanos.

The research cited by the Daily Star, suggested that seismic activity has been caused by a submarine fault between the two major Canary Islands, which could lead to an eruption, similar to the recent Hawaiian disaster. Kilauea volcano there sent lava flows to the neighboring houses, forcing thousands to evacuate.

Fears that the Canary's Teide volcano may be reactivated and fears of a mega-eruption forced the government to appoint an urgent meeting.

However, the director of the National Seismic Network from Spain's National Geographic Institute, Emilio Carreño, speaking to Canary News, suggested, that these minor quakes were of tectonic origin and are "not usually associated with volcanology."

"It is not unusual. Right now in the Peninsula there are quite a few places at which these series are being observed, it is common during any single month to register between 100 and 600 earthquakes in areas like in the Jódar area, or in Jaén, which can experience between 400 and 500 at the same time," he told the media.

===================================================

See post # 2854 for current activity.

[Satori]

With respect to the ongoing volcanic activity on the Big Island of Hawaii, I read something recently where it was suggested that a part of that island on the east side, facing the USA, Mexico, Central America... could slip into the Pacific, sending a tidal wave to the east. The wave could travel at several hundred miles per hour and be a hundred or more feet high, this article suggested.

Turning to the Canary Island, I read something very similar years ago about the same thing happening on that island. But in that event, a large section(s) on the west side of the island could slip into the Atlantic and travel to the east coast of the USA.

In either or both cases, such an event(s) would be disastrous.

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Satori (here)
With respect to the ongoing volcanic activity on the Big Island of Hawaii, I read something recently where it was suggested that a part of that island on the east side, facing the USA, Mexico, Central America... could slip into the Pacific, sending a tidal wave to the east. The wave could travel at several hundred miles per hour and be a hundred or more feet high, this article suggested.

Turning to the Canary Island, I read something very similar years ago about the same thing happening on that island. But in that event, a large section(s) on the west side of the island could slip into the Atlantic and travel to the east coast of the USA.

In either or both cases, such an event(s) would be disastrous.

That was a major concern of this thread, going "way back ... yes.

My current best guess is that such a massive tidal wave, even if 100 feet high in shallower waters near its origin, would spread out, lower its intensity, after traveling a long distance east across the Pacific (if from Hawaii), or west across the Atlantic (if from the Canary Islands.)

This computer model, as posted on Rense.com tries to examine the potential height of such a wave more analytically:

The computer model, compiled in collaboration with Steven Ward of the University of California, Santa Cruz, predicts that the tsunami will have a height of 100 metres (330ft) from crest to trough when it crashes into the shores of nearby north-west Africa. By the time it reached its final destination, the east coast of Florida and the Caribbean islands, the tsunami would still be up to 50 metres high.

Granted, a 50 meter (not just 50 foot) wave hitting Miami would be an epic disaster.

===

Perhaps this computer model has more integrity than the computer modeling of the collapse of the twin towers "due to office fires started by jet fuel".

[Hervé]

Posted by Satori (here)
[...]

In either or both cases, such an event(s) would be disastrous.

See this site/article:

La Palma Tsunami: The mega-hyped tidal wave story

http://www.lapalma-tsunami.com/notes.html

It's somewhere in this thread, discussed at nauseam... one would need to search the thread for "tsunami" to find the various scare-mongering episodes.

The main thing to keep in mind is that the origin of the hypothetical wave is punctual -- not linear. In such a case the hypothetical wave front is circular to semi-circular and the energy, height and velocity of the wave front gets stretched out to nil over increasing distances.

The other main factor to consider is the speed of the hypothetical landslide generating a hypothetical wave:

• instant = big wave
• slow = no wave

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Hervé (here)
See this site/article:

La Palma Tsunami: The mega-hyped tidal wave story

http://www.lapalma-tsunami.com/notes.html

It's somewhere in this thread, discussed at nauseam... one would need to search the thread for "tsunami" to find the various scare-mongering episodes.

So, it sounds like one could speculate, without actually bothering to look closely, that that computer simulation mentioned on Rense, that I noted above, unfortunately might have had integrity on the same order as the integrity of the computer modeling of the collapse of the twin towers "due to office fires started by jet fuel".