Tirelessly updating Avalon on the El Hierro eruption.

[Hervé]

Check La Restinga webcam eruption zone NOW... burning lava floats!

[Hervé]

Last night I started to compose a post about the above occurrence when my internet connection went on vacation... what I was going to post was this:

Unless someone's got the means to launch floating Chinese lanterns and flares on top of a live volcano, this is the best feux-follets display I ever got to witness.

It started with this, a faint glow on the panoramic view of La Restinga on the spot where the Jacuzzi was all day:

Followed by those from the eruption, zoomed webcam, where I thought it must be a ship decked with blinking christmas decorations since the lights were multicolored and flashing:

Here are the glows in perspective with the harbor:

My trouble with this being a ship is that the lights disappeared one by one (see post # 1767, last picture), that doesn't happen with vessels of that estimated size.

So, for me the debate (see Earthquake-report.com) remains between floating Chinese lanterns hoax and genuine, large floating lava boulders which fire and flaring is maintained by the flammable degassing... high temperature feux-follets as with blow-torches!

Here is a link to a video which recorded a portion of the show:

http://s186.photobucket.com/albums/x...ceeruption.mp4

Note that when flaring occurs, what we can see being illuminated are steam clouds... no ship superstructures detectable.

[Hervé]

Strongest so far (no data):
Serious reduction in the amplitude of the harmonic tremor....

For the day:

Frequencies spectrogram, the vertical streaks indicate “events” (tremors/EQs) whereas the horizontal ones reflect volcanic/magmatic activity:

From Wikipedia: A Harmonic tremor is a sustained release of seismic and/or infrasonic energy typically associated with the underground movement of magma and/or venting of volcanic gases from magma. Being a long-duration continuous signal from a temporally extended source, a volcanic tremor contrasts distinctly with transient sources of seismic radiation, such as tremors that are typically associated with earthquake and explosion.

How is El Hierro looking like, now:

(Click on picture to go to webcam page)

Refresh your browser to get the latest traces

For the last 10 days, following the count of EQs as shown by the orange bars (≥ 2.0), it now shows whatever Polly is up to as far as seismic activity is concerned:

(just realized these IGN guys are funny: how do they manage to get 0.5 of an earthquake... according to their graph scale?)

Since the beginning

New cumulative graph starting October 10, 2011. The continuously changing scales keeps compressing the earlier graphs to the bottom and to the left!

Location of the EQs for the last 10 days:

Since the beginning

Refresh your browser page to get the latest numbers and positions.

[Hervé]

Time-lapsed video from Julio del Castillo Vivero:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=BFl9Bl3ByJk

Again, notice what comes to light when flaring occurs.

On checking on the marine traffic and similar sites, there was no vessels cruising in the area at the time. The closest one was C Whale (see prior page). The possibility remains that a ship could have come from the GPS/AIS dead zone.

[Hervé]

From space today:

[Hervé]

Strongest so far (no data):

For the day: :

Frequencies spectrogram, the vertical streaks indicate “events” (tremors/EQs) whereas the horizontal ones reflect volcanic/magmatic activity:

From Wikipedia:A Harmonic tremor is a sustained release of seismic and/or infrasonic energy typically associated with the underground movement of magma and/or venting of volcanic gases from magma. Being a long-duration continuous signal from a temporally extended source, a volcanic tremor contrasts distinctly with transient sources of seismic radiation, such as tremors that are typically associated with earthquake and explosion.

See top of page for the other auto-updating diagrams

[Hervé]

About those night lights... I finally got some facts straight.

At the time of this screen shot:

C Whale was about here (mid afternoon in El Hierro, time on screenshot is EST= GMT - 5 hours, EST + 5 hours = GMT = local time El Hierro):

That's roughly 30 kilometers (17 nautical miles) from that restricted yellow area center. However, that was mid-afternoon when that tanker-turned-freighter was going out of the field of view of every webcam.

Last position before entering the GPS/AIS dead zone at a speed of 10.9 knots on a 272 course:

Now, at the time of posting the top post of this page when the lights were starting to fade, that ship was interpolated to be here (if not, then it's further west on that 273 course at 10 knots):

... that's another 15 kilometers further away (25 nautical miles total) and that 340 meters long ship was already a mirage reflection at 30 kilometers... then, night, and 45 kilometers away with a poor webcam definition that doesn't even have as strong a zoom as the Ustream, mirage one.

The following position would be when Joke Volta saw the ship lights with binoculars around 7 am, local time, from the height of El Pinar:

Now, that's about 60 kilometers (32 nautical miles) away by then...

All that to say that, that statement of IGN to PEVOLCA:

DIARIOELHIERRO.ES, redacción (15/12/2011. 15:15 horas)

The National Geographic Institute (IGN) has confirmed on Thursday to the direction of the Civil Protection Plan for Volcanic Risk (Pevolca) that the lights that appeared yesterday in the Sea of ​​Calm (which were mistaken for the eruption of incandescent material) were a boat anchored from early afternoon about 17 miles from the coast and to the SW area of the eruption.

... doesn't hold much water either... since 10-11 knots are hardly indicative of an anchored vessel.

Also, see picture #4 in post # 1802 above where the faint lights can be seen right smack where the jacuzzi holds the spot... not SW of it.

[Hervé]

Posted by GlassSteagallfan (here)
Thank you for all your effort on this thread. The Canary Islands were featured on Discovery Channel some years ago on the topic of tsunamis.

There is another thread on PA which makes a prediction for 2012 about the Islands. A little off topic, but PM me if you prefer and I will edit it off this thread.
https://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...o-insider-info

Please, see post # 672, this post, post # 674, this other post, post # 1514 as well as post # 1534 and post # 1554.

... and you may get the idea that, in this thread we are relying on data to draw a rational picture.

As I once answered/commented to Bill:

Posted by Amzer Zo (here)

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
-------

Dr Bill Deagle interviewed John Moore on his Nutrimedical Report radio show (30 Sept, hour 3).

John Moore reported that he'd heard from a private source that El Hierro would "cut loose" (i.e. there would be a major eruption or earthquake) in 7-10 days -- "not weeks or months". According to his source, that would of course be round about now.

Potentially important 1 minute extract: http://projectavalon.net/John_Moore_...ember_2011.mp3

Hi Bill, interesting that an "insider" could predict a time for an eruption...

Hence the caveat:

Posted by Amzer Zo (here)
[...]
...

Both Stan Deyo and John Moore have vested interests in catastrophic speculations as they both sell preparedness plans and items and are consultants for hire on disaster prevention...

Me think it's time to revise the origins and perpetuation of these speculated "catastrophes."

That said, a few well placed "explosive charges" could very well make me, and other experts, wrong... and it wouldn't surprise too many people as it is now a highly anticipated outcome due to the drummed up propaganda.

... how, indeed, can an insider predict an eruption or an earthquake -- when no genuily knowledgeable expert would dare to do so; "Ask the volcano" one wisely answered -- unless that eruption or earthquake were to be MANufactured?

Henceforth:

[Hervé]

Archivo

SPECIAL SEISMIC CRISIS - 16/12/2011 (13:50 pm)

IGN is not aware of the emergence of new magmatic material in the Sea of ​​Calms.

DIARIOELHIERRO.ES, writing (12.16.2011. 13:50 pm)
Scientists at the National Geographic Institute (IGN) have no record of new magmatic material to have appeared at the surface of the Sea Calms. What we have seen has been a pulse of tremor associated with submarine eruption of El Hierro, extremely long, which yesterday marked a change in its evolution, according to the Pevolca.

Thus, starting at 13:02 pm yesterday a reduced frequency and amplitude of the pulses which decreased significantly on the 18:20 hours, as recorded by scientists.

The oscillation of these pulses is considered normal in the evolution of the eruptive phenomenon and visible on the surface of the sea. As the stain clearly shows a dark brown head, fairly bubbling in the middle and a green area, which confirms the presence of gases.

As for ground deformation, the GPS monitoring stations recorded the same pattern of recent days, following the trends of stability in both vertical and horizontal components.

[Hervé]

Strongest so far (2.3 at 02:40):

For the day: :

Frequencies spectrogram, the vertical streaks indicate “events” (tremors/EQs) whereas the horizontal ones reflect volcanic/magmatic activity:

From Wikipedia:A Harmonic tremor is a sustained release of seismic and/or infrasonic energy typically associated with the underground movement of magma and/or venting of volcanic gases from magma. Being a long-duration continuous signal from a temporally extended source, a volcanic tremor contrasts distinctly with transient sources of seismic radiation, such as tremors that are typically associated with earthquake and explosion.

See top of page for the other auto-updating diagrams

[Hervé]

Yesterday's video of the La Restinga area of the Sea of Calm from INVOLCAN/Guardia Civil helicopter's flight:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=kEyhNxjH-yE

[Hervé]

From space yesterday:

[Hervé]

From space today:

[Hervé]

Pictures from yesterday's flight:

[Hervé]

SPECIAL SEISMIC CRISIS - 12/17/2011 (18:45 pm)

The tremor signal maintained a constant level.

DIARIOELHIERRO.ES, writing (17.12.2011. 18:45 pm)
Yesterday, November 16th, the tremor signal held at levels similar to those of the last hours of the previous day. In this respect, the amplitude remained constant with two insignificant declines. The most significant record occurred at 21:26 hours when there was a high amplitude pulse that lasted 4 minutes and then returned to previous levels.

The evolution of tremor indicates that the eruption is ongoing and at present is not associated with seismic events. During the 16th, there were no recorded earthquake in the island of El Hierro but the provisional registration of the National Geographic Institute recorded at 2:40 am today, November 17th, a 2.3 magnitude earthquake, NW of Frontera at a depth of 22 kilometers.

In the stain visible on the surface of the La Calmas Sea, no dark tones nor bubbling were detected yesterday given the heavy swell state of the sea.

According to data provided by the Maritime Rescue aircraft Sasemar 103, after a reconnaissance flight in the focal zone, there was no difference in temperature from the sea background nor emission of volcanic material or surface water vapor.

[Hervé]

Strongest so far (no data):

For the day: :

Frequencies spectrogram, the vertical streaks indicate “events” (tremors/EQs) whereas the horizontal ones reflect volcanic/magmatic activity:

From Wikipedia:A Harmonic tremor is a sustained release of seismic and/or infrasonic energy typically associated with the underground movement of magma and/or venting of volcanic gases from magma. Being a long-duration continuous signal from a temporally extended source, a volcanic tremor contrasts distinctly with transient sources of seismic radiation, such as tremors that are typically associated with earthquake and explosion.

See top of page for the other auto-updating diagrams

[Hervé]

CO2 measurements graphed against tremor and earthquakes:

Very interesting graph because it basically demonstrates CO2 as being not a very reliable precursor indicator of eruptions... just an accompanying factor of a very visible eruption already on-going.

[Hervé]

Pictures from today's INVOLCAN/Guardia Civil helicopter's flight:

Soooo... as you can see... Polly is still spewing mud all around, in spite of no earthquakes and a trememdously decreased harmonic tremor.

[Hervé]

Here is the video that goes with the above pictures:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=kIld5tDTURA

HELICOPTER FLIGTH INVOLCAN - GUARDIA CIVIL SUBMARINE VOLCANO AREA OF RESTINGA IN THE SOUTH OF EL HIERRO IN THE MORNING OF DECEMBER 18, 2011, MEASURING HEAT AND DISSOLVED GASES IN THE AIR ON THE ERUPTION ZONE AND TAKING PICTURES . CAN SEE AT THIS TIME A NEW JACUZZI LOCATED MORE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, ALIGNED IN FRONT OF LA RESTINGA AND TO THE SOUTH OF IT.

Here is a location picture from Madrid-Panalara at http://foro.tiempo.com/seguimiento-e...5081.3300.html:

This would mean that Polly managed to climb to the top of the ridge... which, in turn, means less distance to climb up to the surface...

Here is the fish-eye video of this morning's flight:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Gy6_O8YDv6g

[Hervé]

From space today: