Euro will collapse, 'Pig States' to bring EU down

[bashi]

Here a more current status:

[bashi]

Portugal gets dragged in:

Stormy times...

[bashi]

The spread betwee german and greek bonds:

Its a bloodbath...

[bashi]

The yield rose above 18% (this time confirmed):


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?s...0&pid=20601087

[bashi]

The boat is rocking and the Germans play cool:

Speaking at an election rally Tuesday afternoon, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it is appropriate to tell Greeks, "You have to economize, you have to become fair, you have to be honest; if not, nobody can help you," according to the German news agency DAPD.

[bashi]

Today morning:

"Greek 2 year government bond yield at 22.7%"

[bashi]

Here a timeline for the bailout:

GreeceBailout_617&#.pdf

[Swanny]

The good news in England is that house prices are up by 10% on this time last year

[Mulder]

I don't think British house prices being up is good news because they are way too high & need to come down - e.g. one way to value a house is it should be around 3 X the average wage of its suburb. So with people losing their jobs, house prices should be falling. About the Euro, its just a see-saw one month the Euro is down (will collapse) & the $US is up (won't collapse), then the next month vice-versa. Gerald Celente has said the elite can keep printing money & put-off the collapse for years. Almost all currencies, house, gold, oil prices are manipulated & the elite build up one (making money on the way up) then destroy it (making more money on the way down). Its really a sick game.

[Luke]

Posted by Mulder
Gerald Celente has said the elite can keep printing money & put-off the collapse for years. Almost all currencies, house, gold, oil prices are manipulated & the elite build up one (making money on the way up) then destroy it (making more money on the way down).

Yes, IF they will be careful then can play the shell game for many years. Hyperinflation would not come near IF they manage to keep all created "new money" out of the real market - they're mostly in stock exchange and "exotic financial products" right now. It's another simple way to close access to newcomers, without few millions, you cannot play "big boys game" ... . And all that products, securities: it's a maze where one do not know what one owns. It's virtual world, but tied with money to real world. And comparing sums that are in virtual world ... its many, many times bigger than real economy is.

Point is: funny money and real money are treated the same

Fredkc asked valid questions in post #11:

1. If they inflate "all currencies", then where are the rich supposed to hide their money? Gold?
2. If it's to be gold, or some commodity then, how does this occur without inflating the hell out of it's value?

What I think:
Ad1: Think on some level money doesn't exist, the real money are: property deeds, art objects, patents and "pulls" on politicians&others . Gold is only "exchange medium with intristic value"
Ad2: Inflation only affects goods on open market. Their goods are not on open marked, thus unaffected.
We're just so used to "counting", Forbes 500 list etc. It lists value in $$$ .. but that's converted value: stocks, options, objects d'art, patents is what makes that value, not exchange medium.

[bashi]

Also mineral rights have value. Even not extracted yet, it`s potentially there.

Gold is just paper, as long as you do not insist on physical delivery.

See this vid:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=BfCn8NlLHko

The OTC guy argues exactly that: They don't have the gold, but they claim to know its "somewhere" in the cycle.
Would you accept a 10 ton truckload of electronic scrap, because it contains your 100 gram gold-bar?

.

[bashi]

What will likely be announced today is this:

They will give Greece EVERYTHING it needs and even MORE!

Angela Merkl will 100% reverse her stand and will stand together with ECB and IMF to hold the EU together.
Anything else would only sink the boat quickly, with everybody inside.

That will buy them some time (months?).
But sooner or later the return to roost will start.

.

[Swanny]

ollowing the downgrading of Greece's debt to "junk" status.

Doesn't sound good does it .......

[Luke]

Germany would not do that. Why?
Their constitution.
In the Lisbon treaty they (and only they) gotten clause that every EU law would be evaluated if it's in accordance with their constitution. Their law forbids in-EU money lends. Thus if Chancellor A.Merkel would stand for lend, she will be a criminal. Not lightly taken in Germany.
Way I see it: Greece will be kicked out of monetary union, with other countries soon to follow. Maybe it will be announced as "temporary" .. but truth is, EU cannot allow to whole concept of Euro to collapse.

[bashi]

Posted by SaiCO (here)
Germany would not do that. Why?
Their constitution.
In the Lisbon treaty they (and only they) gotten clause that every EU law would be evaluated if it's in accordance with their constitution. Their law forbids in-EU money lends. Thus if Chancellor A.Merkel would stand for lend, she will be a criminal. Not lightly taken in Germany.
Way I see it: Greece will be kicked out of monetary union, with other countries soon to follow. Maybe it will be announced as "temporary" .. but truth is, EU cannot allow to whole concept of Euro to collapse.

Merkl will have to take the hit. Her election poker has not worked.

If you start cutting Greece out, who will be next Portugal, then Spain?
Because if you cut it, Greece WILL default and the signal will be that whoever is in trouble will be left alone. Instead of curing the disease, it will get more inflamed by seeking out the next victim.
So, no there will be a MASSIVE rescue mission. They will speed up the legislative process to make everybody feeling financially save. Thats the only way for them now.
Its too late for something else. You will see it today.

.

[Luke]

Well, as you say, we will see, one thing for sure, every option seems quite dark.
I will hedge my bets in following way:
10% - Bailout
45% - "Temporary" suspension of Greece's membership in Monetary Union (other offenders will follow)
45% - Creating a post of "Special Economic Commissary" for Greece, that will personally enforce "reforms" no matter what Greeks will think- ( End of economic independence, massive budget cuts, higher taxes resulting in revolts, in aftermath: Martial law and EU "Police intervention",Greece as EU "Protectorate", example for other countries.)

EDIT: Exposure to Greek debt by country, via zerohedge http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fra...tation-bailout

EDIT2: Also via zerohedge : bailout estimates (he seems to agree with you, Bashi ) http://www.zerohedge.com/article/its...k-bailout-7-bi

[bashi]

OK,
my bet:

100 % on a bailout with option to increase it to over 100 Billion, together with controlled and enforceable commitment of greece to restructure.
Massive pressure to ensure change of the law in Germany

0% on other possibilities.


It will come today or otherwise they will have to resurrect Greece.
So, lets see

.

[bashi]

So everybody is waiting.

BTW, i forgot to mention that today the yield on the greek 2 year bond was briefly at 38% .

[Panta rhei]

Posted by bashi (here)
OK,
my bet:

100 % on a bailout with option to increase it to over 100 Billion, together with controlled and enforceable commitment of greece to restructure.
Massive pressure to ensure change of the law in Germany

0% on other possibilities.

.

I agree but I think this will only postpone the inevitable, I don't think they will be able to pay for all of the PIGS states.

And if bank runs will indeed take place all can happen very quickly....

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/...bank-risk.html

But we neglected to consider a more direct source of trouble, namely, that of bank runs in the countries at risk. John Mauldin’s latest newsletter tells us that is already underway in Greece:

Money is flying from Greek banks, which makes sense, as how can a bankrupt Greek government guarantee Greek bank deposits? I know that Greek bankers may have a different view, but Greek depositors are voting with their feet. And …it is not just Greece. It is fast becoming Portugal. And Spain is not far behind in my opinion.

[Emmanuel]

“If Greece is allowed to fail, the damage to the German budget and German taxpayers will with certainty be greater than if we rescue it,” said Roland Koch, state premier in Hessen and a leading member of Mrs. Merkel’s Christian Democrats, in an interview on Thursday with the daily newspaper Berliner Zeitung. “The faster a decision is made, the less harm will arise,” Mr. Koch said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/30/wo.../30greece.html

who's bet is up?