I understand that for US citizens the impacts of the BP off shore exploitation and tragedy concern them most. But Europe is indeed concern too. I am sorry but I do not have the time right now to read everything you have written on the subject, please be indulgent.
RISK OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE BY BP OIL SPILL
Frascati National Laboratories (LNF)
National Institute of Nuclear Physics (INFN)
Frascati 00044, Via E. Fermi, 40, ITALY
Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research
Abstract: BP Oil Spill may cause an irreparable damage to the Gulf Stream global climate thermoregulation activity.
The Gulf Stream importance in the global climate thermoregulation processes
is well assessed. The latest real time satellite (Jason, Topex/Poseidon, GeosatFollow-On, ERS-2, Envisat) data maps of May-June 2010 processed by CCAR1,2
(Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research), checked at Frascati
Laboratories by the means of the SHT congruent calculus3 and compared with past years data, show for the first time a direct evidence of the rapid breaking of the Loop Current, a warm ocean current, crucial part of the Gulf Stream.
As displayed both by the sea surface velocity maps and the sea surface height maps, the Loop Current broke down for the first time around May 18th and generated a clock wise eddy, which is still active (see Fig. 1).
Figure 1| Real time satellites data maps. Real time sea surface height maps (above) and as of today the situation has deteriorated up to the point in which the eddy has detached itself completely from the main stream therefore destroying completely the Loop Current, as in figure 2 below, dated June 12th 2010.
Figure 2| Real time satellites data maps updated. Real time sea surface height map (left) and sea surface velocity maps (right) updated on June 12th processed by CCAR1,2 and checked at LNF (Frascati) by SHT calculus3.
The star indicates the site of BP platform “Deepwater Horizon”. The yellow arrow indicates the breaking of the Loop Stream.
Since comparative analysis with past satellite data until may 2010 didn’t show
relevant anomalies, it might be therefore plausible to correlate the breaking of
the Loop Current with the biochemical and physical action of the BP Oil Spill on the Gulf Stream.
It is reasonable to foresee the threat that the breaking of a crucial warm
stream as the Loop Current may generate a chain reaction of unpredictable
critical phenomena and instabilities due to strong non linearities which may
have serious consequences on the dynamics of the Gulf Stream thermoregulation activity of the Global Climate.
PDF with images at http://www.associazionegeofisica.it/OilSpill.pdf
1. CCAR web page: http://argo.colorado.edu/~realtime/welcome/;
2. Leben, R. R., G. H. Born, B. R. Engebreth, 2002, Operational altimeter
data processing for mesoscale monitoring. Marine Geodesy, 25, 3-18;
3. G. Zangari patent SIAE-OLAF n. 9903198/1999
Acknowledgements: we acknowledge Frascati National Laboratories
(www.lnf.infn.it) and the National Institute of Nuclear Physics (www.infn.it).
We also aknowledge the University of Colorado, Boulder, USA: the maps
displayed in Fig. 1 and 2 were produced by the Colorado Center for
Astrodynamics Research at the University of Colorado, Boulder, USA.
More information on these data products is available at
I suggest you to reread
From Project Avalon
he Jet Stream
The earth's tilt, rotation and land/sea distribution affect the global weather patterns we observe.
While the weather varies from day-to-day at any particular location, over the years, the same type of weather will reoccur. The reoccurring "average weather" found in any particular place is called climate.
German climatologist and amateur botanist Wladimir Köppen (1846-1940) divided the world's climates into several major categories based upon general temperature profile related to latitude. These categories are as follows:
A - Tropical Climates
Tropical moist climates extend north and south from the equator to about 15° to 25° latitude. In these climates all months have average temperatures greater than 64°F (18°C) and annual precipitation greater than 59".
B - Dry Climates
The most obvious climatic feature of this climate is that potential evaporation and transpiration exceed precipitation. These climates extend from 20°-35° North and South of the equator and in large continental regions of the mid-latitudes often surrounded by mountains.
C - Moist Subtropical Mid-Latitude Climates
This climate generally has warm and humid summers with mild winters. Its extent is from 30°50° of latitude mainly on the eastern and western borders of most continents. During the winter, the main weather feature is the mid-latitude cyclone. Convective thunderstorms dominate summer months.
D - Moist Continental Mid-latitude Climates
Moist continental mid-latitude climates have warm to cool summers and cold winters. The location of these climates is poleward of the C climates. The average temperature of the warmest month is greater than 50°F (10°C), while the coldest month is less than -22°F (-30°C). Winters are severe with snowstorms, strong winds, and bitter cold from Continental Polar or Arctic air masses.
E - Polar Climates
Polar climates have year-round cold temperatures with the warmest month less than 50°F (10°C). Polar climates are found on the northern coastal areas of North America, Europe, Asia, and on the land masses of Greenland and Antarctica.
H - Highlands
Unique climates based on their elevation. Highland climates occur in mountainous terrain where rapid elevation changes cause rapid climatic changes over short distances.
The map (below) shows where these major categories occur in the mainland United States.
Take it to the MAX! Learn about further sub-divisions of these climate zones.
The classical length of record to determine the climate for any particular place is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The quantities most often observed are temperature, precipitation, and wind.
The "normals" are computed once every 10 years which helps to smooth out year-to-year variations. For example, the current 30-year normals were calculated from the actual weather data that occurred during the 30 years of 1971-2000. In 2011, a new set of 30-year normals will be calculated using the data from the period of 1981-2010. So, when you hear what the normal high and low temperature for your location, for example, they come from these 30-year averages.
Hope is like a road in the country;
there was never a road,
but when many people walk on it,
the road comes into existence.
"Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown
The Jet Stream
The Jet Stream
Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere.
The winds blows from west to east in jet streams but the flow often shifts to the north and south.
Jet streams follow the boundaries between hot and cold air. Since these hot and cold air boundaries are most pronounced in winter, jet streams are the strongest for both the northern and southern hemisphere winters.
Why does the jet stream winds blow from west to east? Recall from the previous section what the global wind patterns would be like if the earth was not rotating. (The warm air rising at the equator will move toward both poles.) We saw that the earth's rotation divided this circulation into three cells. The earth's rotation is responsible for the jet stream as well.
The motion of the air is not directly north and south but is affected by the momentum the air has as it moves away from the equator. The reason has to do with momentum and how fast a location on or above the Earth moves relative to the Earth's axis.
Your speed relative to the Earth's axis depends on your location. Someone standing on the equator is moving much faster than someone standing on a 45° latitude line. In the graphic (above right) the person at the position on the equator arrives at the yellow line sooner than the other two. Someone standing on a pole is not moving at all (except that he or she would be slowly spinning). The speed of the rotation is great enough to cause you to weigh one pound less at the equator than you would at the north or south pole.
The momentum the air has as it travels around the earth is conserved, which means as the air that's over the equator starts moving toward one of the poles, it keeps its eastward motion constant. The Earth below the air, however, moves slower as that air travels toward the poles. The result is that the air moves faster and faster in an easterly direction (relative to the Earth's surface below) the farther it moves from the equator.
In addition, with the three-cell circulations mentioned previously, the regions around 30° N/S and 50°-60° N/S are areas where temperature changes are the greatest. As the difference in temperature between the two locations increase, the strength of the wind increases. Therefore, the regions around 30° N/S and 50°-60° N/S are also regions where the wind, in the upper atmosphere, is the strongest.
The 50°-60° N/S region is where the polar jet located with the subtropical jet located around 30°N. Jet streams vary in height of four to eight miles and can reach speeds of more than 275 mph (239 kts / 442 kp/h).
The actual appearance of jet streams result from the complex interaction between many variables - such as the location of high and low pressure systems, warm and cold air, and seasonal changes. They meander around the globe, dipping and rising in altitude/latitude, splitting at times and forming eddies, and even disappearing altogether to appear somewhere else.
Jet streams also "follow the sun" in that as the sun's elevation increases each day in the spring, the jet streams shifts north moving into Canada by Summer.
As Autumn approaches and the sun's elevation decreases, the jet stream moves south into the United States helping to bring cooler air to the country.
Also, the jet stream is often indicated by a line on maps and by television meteorologist. The line generally points to the location of the strongest wind. Jet streams are typically wider and not as distinct but a region where the wind increase toward a core of strongest wind.
One way of visualizing this is consider a river. The river's current is generally the strongest in the center with decreasing strength as one approaches the river's bank. It can be said that jet streams are "rivers of air".
So with all these informations in english and of course most of the same informations in other language the preventive step in order to reduce morbidity and mortality for me was to write the following;
The importance of planning ahead for cold weather
Salutations to all,
I would like to share with you what I have learned from my family, from First Nations and from Technology on how to insulated yourself in winter.
I will talk about Boreal Hemisphere People but I presume a lot of the means can be apply to the Xouthern Hemisphere coutries.
We must first look at the NorthWind, this wind is the coldest one and the most sustained one in the winter.
As you know most of the house windows are directed towards the south because our ancesters where aware of this nasty North Wind.
The second coldest wind is the West Wind it often brings cold from the northwest.
So I will concentrated on this post to two walls of your house or appartment the North Wall and the West wall.
Usually our great grand parents used to grow trees about 25 feet from the house on the north side and the west side to sort of stop or deviate those Winds. Leave them there.
If you do not have trees don't worry there are many solutions as you will see.
WHen it Snow, do not fight Nature. Built snow banks about 10 feets from the two walls, you will notice that snow tends to accumulate there so follow the wind and bring this snow from the peripphery of your land of you two walls and bring it at about 10 feet from your house. Do that at the beginning, the Winds do not argue and will pilled up its Wind Snow on the lay out you will have done.
The fondation is important for those two walls put few bags of soil about 4 inches high along the the walls fondation, it will avoid more water to melt at the base of the fondation.
The Doors needs a strip of isolator, it is not expensive and stop the cold from getting in.
You must first close your window tighly and start putting gell insulator but from the outside FIRST, then put some around each window inside.
Check for yourself with an incences stick if there is still wind coming trough.
Do not forget electrical plugs and interruptors with you incence stick should dhow you how much breeze comes from those.
Insulate them, depending of you country go to the hardware store and they will tell you ehat to use, never use piece of clothe or any flammable things, in a winter time it would start a house fire.
ALways make sure that your dryer is tightly fix (the hose that brings hot air outside) and always keep the door of the fryer and the door of that room close.
If you run on 110 volts by small heating fan of 600 watts and put them on the floor at the corner of your northern and western walls on the floor about 5 feets from the corner and avoid putting anything in front of it. NEVER LEAVE THIS WITHOUT ANY PRESENCE IN THE HOUSE, check once in the while if the fan wire is hot if so get it away, at 600 watts it is NOT supposed to heat therefore get it away.
I hope this will help, I will post more thing as time allows.
SNowy Owl from the 48th Parralel
Hat tip to Morning son of Project Avalon
Hat Tip to Tothe of the Project Avalon
The Breaking of the Loop Current in the Gulf Stream
Now we have 3 sources for GOM plug in maps for speed/currents, SSH & SST.
Lets see who is the most un-biased re. latest Marshall Masters update!
Update# 1 http://yowusa.com/earth/2010/earth-0810-05a/1.shtml
From the US Naval Research Laboratory
Snapshot & movies of GOM note: get a load of the July 13 loop current stall.
From The Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research
From NOAA/AOML and NOAA/SEFSC
Index of all Ocean Conveyer articles of research from the Hole
Hat Tip to Tothe of Avalon Project
The Breaking of the Loop Current in the Gulf Stream
We could use this as a possible 4th. source for GOM & Gulf Stream data..
Naval Research Laboratory real-time experiment with the 1/25° Gulf of Mexico HYCOM The archives do go back to June.
Information about the consorium.
HYCOM website..called experiment here too. Archives go back to 2003.
Found more papers on the loop current.
Mega-flood triggered European ice age: At the end of this article I find JPL is going political trying to downplay the significance of a Gulf Stream slow down...in other words they don't know or are total jerks.
Part or text from link below.
"Scientists say they have found the trigger of a sharp cooling 13,000 years ago that plunged Europe into a mini ice age......
The finding has confirmed past theories about the likely cause of a sudden cooling period called the Younger Dryas when temperatures in Europe plunged into ice age conditions that lasted for about 1400 years."
http://18.104.22.168:8888/html/Staying_Warm.html a must read