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Thread: Gulf Oil Aftermath. What now?

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    Avalon Member Snowy Owl's Avatar
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    Thumbs up Re: Gulf Oil Aftermath. What now?

    I understand that for US citizens the impacts of the BP off shore exploitation and tragedy concern them most. But Europe is indeed concern too. I am sorry but I do not have the time right now to read everything you have written on the subject, please be indulgent.

    RISK OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE BY BP OIL SPILL


    Gianluigi Zangari

    Frascati National Laboratories (LNF)
    National Institute of Nuclear Physics (INFN)
    Frascati 00044, Via E. Fermi, 40, ITALY


    Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research

    Abstract: BP Oil Spill may cause an irreparable damage to the Gulf Stream global climate thermoregulation activity.

    The Gulf Stream importance in the global climate thermoregulation processes
    is well assessed. The latest real time satellite (Jason, Topex/Poseidon, GeosatFollow-On, ERS-2, Envisat) data maps of May-June 2010 processed by CCAR1,2

    (Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research), checked at Frascati


    Laboratories by the means of the SHT congruent calculus3 and compared with past years data, show for the first time a direct evidence of the rapid breaking of the Loop Current, a warm ocean current, crucial part of the Gulf Stream.
    As displayed both by the sea surface velocity maps and the sea surface height maps, the Loop Current broke down for the first time around May 18th and generated a clock wise eddy, which is still active (see Fig. 1).

    Figure 1| Real time satellites data maps. Real time sea surface height maps (above) and as of today the situation has deteriorated up to the point in which the eddy has detached itself completely from the main stream therefore destroying completely the Loop Current, as in figure 2 below, dated June 12th 2010.

    Figure 2| Real time satellites data maps updated. Real time sea surface height map (left) and sea surface velocity maps (right) updated on June 12th processed by CCAR1,2 and checked at LNF (Frascati) by SHT calculus3.

    The star indicates the site of BP platform “Deepwater Horizon”. The yellow arrow indicates the breaking of the Loop Stream.

    Since comparative analysis with past satellite data until may 2010 didn’t show
    relevant anomalies, it might be therefore plausible to correlate the breaking of
    the Loop Current with the biochemical and physical action of the BP Oil Spill on the Gulf Stream.

    It is reasonable to foresee the threat that the breaking of a crucial warm
    stream as the Loop Current may generate a chain reaction of unpredictable
    critical phenomena and instabilities due to strong non linearities which may
    have serious consequences on the dynamics of the Gulf Stream thermoregulation activity of the Global Climate.

    PDF with images at http://www.associazionegeofisica.it/OilSpill.pdf

    References:

    1. CCAR web page: http://argo.colorado.edu/~realtime/welcome/;
    2. Leben, R. R., G. H. Born, B. R. Engebreth, 2002, Operational altimeter
    data processing for mesoscale monitoring. Marine Geodesy, 25, 3-18;
    3. G. Zangari patent SIAE-OLAF n. 9903198/1999

    Acknowledgements: we acknowledge Frascati National Laboratories
    (www.lnf.infn.it) and the National Institute of Nuclear Physics (www.infn.it).

    We also aknowledge the University of Colorado, Boulder, USA: the maps
    displayed in Fig. 1 and 2 were produced by the Colorado Center for
    Astrodynamics Research at the University of Colorado, Boulder, USA.

    More information on these data products is available at
    http://argo.colorado.edu/~realtime/welcome/.

    I suggest you to reread

    From Project Avalon

    http://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...he-Gulf-Stream

    he Jet Stream
    Climate

    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstrea...al/climate.htm

    The earth's tilt, rotation and land/sea distribution affect the global weather patterns we observe.

    While the weather varies from day-to-day at any particular location, over the years, the same type of weather will reoccur. The reoccurring "average weather" found in any particular place is called climate.

    German climatologist and amateur botanist Wladimir Köppen (1846-1940) divided the world's climates into several major categories based upon general temperature profile related to latitude. These categories are as follows:
    A - Tropical Climates
    Tropical moist climates extend north and south from the equator to about 15° to 25° latitude. In these climates all months have average temperatures greater than 64°F (18°C) and annual precipitation greater than 59".
    B - Dry Climates
    The most obvious climatic feature of this climate is that potential evaporation and transpiration exceed precipitation. These climates extend from 20°-35° North and South of the equator and in large continental regions of the mid-latitudes often surrounded by mountains.
    C - Moist Subtropical Mid-Latitude Climates
    This climate generally has warm and humid summers with mild winters. Its extent is from 30°50° of latitude mainly on the eastern and western borders of most continents. During the winter, the main weather feature is the mid-latitude cyclone. Convective thunderstorms dominate summer months.
    D - Moist Continental Mid-latitude Climates
    Moist continental mid-latitude climates have warm to cool summers and cold winters. The location of these climates is poleward of the C climates. The average temperature of the warmest month is greater than 50°F (10°C), while the coldest month is less than -22°F (-30°C). Winters are severe with snowstorms, strong winds, and bitter cold from Continental Polar or Arctic air masses.
    E - Polar Climates
    Polar climates have year-round cold temperatures with the warmest month less than 50°F (10°C). Polar climates are found on the northern coastal areas of North America, Europe, Asia, and on the land masses of Greenland and Antarctica.
    H - Highlands
    Unique climates based on their elevation. Highland climates occur in mountainous terrain where rapid elevation changes cause rapid climatic changes over short distances.


    The map (below) shows where these major categories occur in the mainland United States.

    Take it to the MAX! Learn about further sub-divisions of these climate zones.


    The classical length of record to determine the climate for any particular place is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The quantities most often observed are temperature, precipitation, and wind.


    The "normals" are computed once every 10 years which helps to smooth out year-to-year variations. For example, the current 30-year normals were calculated from the actual weather data that occurred during the 30 years of 1971-2000. In 2011, a new set of 30-year normals will be calculated using the data from the period of 1981-2010. So, when you hear what the normal high and low temperature for your location, for example, they come from these 30-year averages.
    __________________
    LIN YUTANG:
    Hope is like a road in the country;
    there was never a road,
    but when many people walk on it,
    the road comes into existence.

    "Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle." Unknown

    The Jet Stream

    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/global/jet.htm


    The Jet Stream

    Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere.



    The winds blows from west to east in jet streams but the flow often shifts to the north and south.



    Jet streams follow the boundaries between hot and cold air. Since these hot and cold air boundaries are most pronounced in winter, jet streams are the strongest for both the northern and southern hemisphere winters.

    Why does the jet stream winds blow from west to east? Recall from the previous section what the global wind patterns would be like if the earth was not rotating. (The warm air rising at the equator will move toward both poles.) We saw that the earth's rotation divided this circulation into three cells. The earth's rotation is responsible for the jet stream as well.

    The motion of the air is not directly north and south but is affected by the momentum the air has as it moves away from the equator. The reason has to do with momentum and how fast a location on or above the Earth moves relative to the Earth's axis.



    Your speed relative to the Earth's axis depends on your location. Someone standing on the equator is moving much faster than someone standing on a 45° latitude line. In the graphic (above right) the person at the position on the equator arrives at the yellow line sooner than the other two. Someone standing on a pole is not moving at all (except that he or she would be slowly spinning). The speed of the rotation is great enough to cause you to weigh one pound less at the equator than you would at the north or south pole.


    The momentum the air has as it travels around the earth is conserved, which means as the air that's over the equator starts moving toward one of the poles, it keeps its eastward motion constant. The Earth below the air, however, moves slower as that air travels toward the poles. The result is that the air moves faster and faster in an easterly direction (relative to the Earth's surface below) the farther it moves from the equator.





    In addition, with the three-cell circulations mentioned previously, the regions around 30° N/S and 50°-60° N/S are areas where temperature changes are the greatest. As the difference in temperature between the two locations increase, the strength of the wind increases. Therefore, the regions around 30° N/S and 50°-60° N/S are also regions where the wind, in the upper atmosphere, is the strongest.



    The 50°-60° N/S region is where the polar jet located with the subtropical jet located around 30°N. Jet streams vary in height of four to eight miles and can reach speeds of more than 275 mph (239 kts / 442 kp/h).


    The actual appearance of jet streams result from the complex interaction between many variables - such as the location of high and low pressure systems, warm and cold air, and seasonal changes. They meander around the globe, dipping and rising in altitude/latitude, splitting at times and forming eddies, and even disappearing altogether to appear somewhere else.






    Jet streams also "follow the sun" in that as the sun's elevation increases each day in the spring, the jet streams shifts north moving into Canada by Summer.



    As Autumn approaches and the sun's elevation decreases, the jet stream moves south into the United States helping to bring cooler air to the country.


    Also, the jet stream is often indicated by a line on maps and by television meteorologist. The line generally points to the location of the strongest wind. Jet streams are typically wider and not as distinct but a region where the wind increase toward a core of strongest wind.


    One way of visualizing this is consider a river. The river's current is generally the strongest in the center with decreasing strength as one approaches the river's bank. It can be said that jet streams are "rivers of air".

    So with all these informations in english and of course most of the same informations in other language the preventive step in order to reduce morbidity and mortality for me was to write the following;

    The importance of planning ahead for cold weather
    Salutations to all,

    I would like to share with you what I have learned from my family, from First Nations and from Technology on how to insulated yourself in winter.

    I will talk about Boreal Hemisphere People but I presume a lot of the means can be apply to the Xouthern Hemisphere coutries.

    We must first look at the NorthWind, this wind is the coldest one and the most sustained one in the winter.

    As you know most of the house windows are directed towards the south because our ancesters where aware of this nasty North Wind.

    The second coldest wind is the West Wind it often brings cold from the northwest.

    So I will concentrated on this post to two walls of your house or appartment the North Wall and the West wall.

    Usually our great grand parents used to grow trees about 25 feet from the house on the north side and the west side to sort of stop or deviate those Winds. Leave them there.

    If you do not have trees don't worry there are many solutions as you will see.

    WHen it Snow, do not fight Nature. Built snow banks about 10 feets from the two walls, you will notice that snow tends to accumulate there so follow the wind and bring this snow from the peripphery of your land of you two walls and bring it at about 10 feet from your house. Do that at the beginning, the Winds do not argue and will pilled up its Wind Snow on the lay out you will have done.

    The fondation is important for those two walls put few bags of soil about 4 inches high along the the walls fondation, it will avoid more water to melt at the base of the fondation.

    The Doors needs a strip of isolator, it is not expensive and stop the cold from getting in.

    The windows,
    You must first close your window tighly and start putting gell insulator but from the outside FIRST, then put some around each window inside.

    Check for yourself with an incences stick if there is still wind coming trough.

    Do not forget electrical plugs and interruptors with you incence stick should dhow you how much breeze comes from those.

    Insulate them, depending of you country go to the hardware store and they will tell you ehat to use, never use piece of clothe or any flammable things, in a winter time it would start a house fire.

    ALways make sure that your dryer is tightly fix (the hose that brings hot air outside) and always keep the door of the fryer and the door of that room close.

    If you run on 110 volts by small heating fan of 600 watts and put them on the floor at the corner of your northern and western walls on the floor about 5 feets from the corner and avoid putting anything in front of it. NEVER LEAVE THIS WITHOUT ANY PRESENCE IN THE HOUSE, check once in the while if the fan wire is hot if so get it away, at 600 watts it is NOT supposed to heat therefore get it away.

    I hope this will help, I will post more thing as time allows.

    SNowy Owl from the 48th Parralel

    Hat tip to Morning son of Project Avalon
    http://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...he-Gulf-Stream

    Hat Tip to Tothe of the Project Avalon
    http://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...-Stream/page2&

    The Breaking of the Loop Current in the Gulf Stream

    Now we have 3 sources for GOM plug in maps for speed/currents, SSH & SST.
    Lets see who is the most un-biased re. latest Marshall Masters update!

    Update# 1 http://yowusa.com/earth/2010/earth-0810-05a/1.shtml

    From the US Naval Research Laboratory
    http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/skill.html
    Snapshot & movies of GOM note: get a load of the July 13 loop current stall.
    http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/gom.html

    From The Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research
    http://argo.colorado.edu/~realtime/g...l-time_velmag/

    From NOAA/AOML and NOAA/SEFSC
    Index.
    http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dhos/index.php
    "plug-in" map
    http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dhos/geos.php

    Index of all Ocean Conveyer articles of research from the Hole
    http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455

    Hat Tip to Tothe of Avalon Project
    http://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...f-Stream/page3

    The Breaking of the Loop Current in the Gulf Stream

    We could use this as a possible 4th. source for GOM & Gulf Stream data..

    Naval Research Laboratory real-time experiment with the 1/25° Gulf of Mexico HYCOM The archives do go back to June.
    http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycom...ll_public.html

    Information about the consorium.
    http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomGOM2/prologue.html

    HYCOM website..called experiment here too. Archives go back to 2003.
    http://www.hycom.org/

    Found more papers on the loop current.
    Mega-flood triggered European ice age: At the end of this article I find JPL is going political trying to downplay the significance of a Gulf Stream slow down...in other words they don't know or are total jerks.
    Part or text from link below.

    "Scientists say they have found the trigger of a sharp cooling 13,000 years ago that plunged Europe into a mini ice age......
    The finding has confirmed past theories about the likely cause of a sudden cooling period called the Younger Dryas when temperatures in Europe plunged into ice age conditions that lasted for about 1400 years."
    http://www.abc.net.au/science/articl...1/2862429.htm?
    Index
    http://search.abc.net.au/search/sear...meta_v=science

    Staying Warm
    http://66.236.6.194:8888/html/Staying_Warm.html a must read
    Last edited by Snowy Owl; 27th September 2010 at 02:07.

  2. Link to Post #42
    Avalon Member nomadguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gulf Oil Aftermath. What now?

    Great post Snow! This is a good symposium of the latest info ongoing gulf disaster and it's impacts,
    note ~
    We shall see how the oil pressure effects storms this winter, starting in my view with Iceland and most of Europe. The convection is likely to bring oil saturation air and water to the currents near Iceland. Sometime after it shall move down to the UK and spread all the way to Gibraltar, and this zone could end being a main receptor for storms with oil/chemical combinations and perhaps electrically active in some form. the temperatures of the storms as the carry moisture over land masses I think is key to this, with the added chemicals a lot of variables are in play.
    Why not now?

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    Avalon Member Snowy Owl's Avatar
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    Lightbulb Re: Gulf Oil Aftermath. What now?

    @NomadGuy

    I am a Algonquin Ojibwa, Pontiac Nation at the 48th parallel upper Québec, I personnally saw the Canadian loony (lol) leaving south 3 and an half week ago.

    Up-here Elderlies says that they have never witness the rivers so low, 3 weeks earlier than usual for harvest and Gooze 3 weeks ahead of time leaving south and BTW they fly as rushed by sum'pin.

    Snowy Owl alias Achak
    The economy is to serve the people, not the people to serve the economy -- Manfred Max-Neef

    An Old Spanish proverb that says “civilization and anarchy are only seven meals apart''.

    Un Vieux proverbe Espagnol qui dit ''la civilisation et l'anarchie ne sont qu'à 7 repas d'écart''.

  4. Link to Post #44
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    Default Re: Gulf Oil Aftermath. What now?

    I mean no disrespect
    This should NOT read "what now?" " What now" reads as a 'reactionary" move.
    "NOW WHAT" should have a more, get involved and precautions to correct this crap verbage direction.
    "Now what" sounds more like "what's our next move?".
    I'm not a republican,democrat,or teabagger. I AM a firm believer in this website and the intent of those that started this, and those that follow this websites basic principles.
    I want to get more involved in grassroots efforts without getting labeled.
    This oil leak/explosion mismanegement disgusts me.
    Never mind Nigeria..
    Nevermind everything else that I have no control over.
    Where do we step in?
    I'm actually doing real stuff with my new company. But we all need to do more. I hate politics.
    Change? It's inevitable. I'd like to work with you people to manifest the best change we can collectivly.. More then a "mindfreak".

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    Avalon Member Snowy Owl's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gulf Oil Aftermath. What now?

    Sorry English is not my first language, french is and for example we say the pencil blue not the nlue pencil.

    Please let me add that you have written : Never mind Nigeria, that is not Humaniterian, would you go as far as to say never mind if Europe freeze this winter because of the UD spill ?

    Dare to answer please.

    Thank you

    Snowy
    The economy is to serve the people, not the people to serve the economy -- Manfred Max-Neef

    An Old Spanish proverb that says “civilization and anarchy are only seven meals apart''.

    Un Vieux proverbe Espagnol qui dit ''la civilisation et l'anarchie ne sont qu'à 7 repas d'écart''.

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    Avalon Member kaliestar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gulf Oil Aftermath. What now?

    Don't know about you guys around the world but here in Brasil we never see anything on the oil spill anymore...no more ecological impact, nothing...so funny...

    Anybody here from Florida or surroundings?

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    Avalon Member Snowy Owl's Avatar
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    Default Re: Gulf Oil Aftermath. What now?

    Lessons in Brazil's oil spill after a decade
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBZNKcQ4ba8
    The economy is to serve the people, not the people to serve the economy -- Manfred Max-Neef

    An Old Spanish proverb that says “civilization and anarchy are only seven meals apart''.

    Un Vieux proverbe Espagnol qui dit ''la civilisation et l'anarchie ne sont qu'à 7 repas d'écart''.

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