Need a reference source: Imminent Financial Collapse? Move money to?

[mgray]

Posted by Dennis Leahy (here)
Thank you NancyV, Czarek, and mgray.

Let me ask a stupid simple question... do you believe there will be a financial collapse (engineered or organic/domino effect) within the next six months?

Dennis

A collapse is dependent on your circumstances. Dow 5K with a US 10-yr note with a negative yield on dollar strength. A bifurcated euro (one for the PIIGS) and one for northern Europe.
Gold, silver and crude oil would not trade well in dollar terms in this scenario.
If you are near retirement its horrible.

[joamarks]

I think it's so obvious the titanic already hit the iceberg!
we are going down already in a steady pass.

here in Europa the banks were falling in 2008. they were rescued by government.
so now, if they push the magic button, not only the banking market will fall but also complete governments and whole continents.
they will declare bankruptcy

there are not enough lifeboats.
if there are any they are reserved for the strongest ones, (read wealthy)

may i do a rough prediction based on just experience and no files backing up this "feeling"

if there is a world elite (still) running the show, my guess is they will act only after a successful Olympic 2012 in London.
the world game is an important play in their rituals.

so whatever will happen, it will happen in the 4th quart of this year. with its peak somewhere in april/ may 2013

if nothing is happening by then we are really in trouble because then we are certain that the captain has abandoning ship premature.
and we are on stupid automated control. with water pumps running full power it can take even years before something fresh will happen. (the matter of fact is that a hole lot of people are waiting already for decades that this will happen, i don't like joining them.)

so if you have money, enjoy it! spent it! BUY A BOAT

[Dennis Leahy]

Posted by 9eagle9 (here)
What does the financial collapse we've experienced in the last two years tell you?

Posted by Dennis Leahy (here)
Let me ask a stupid simple question... do you believe there will be a financial collapse (engineered or organic/domino effect) within the next six months?

Dennis

It doesn't tell me enough to know if it is a gradual decline, or if we are (as my gut feels) close to a precipice. Others say the Big Bastards won't let anything drastic happen - at all - because it would hurt them. And finally, I see the giant (unprecedented) derivatives debt and hope someone can provide a source that appears to have a good idea what specifically that means, whether it will unravel slowly or rather explode (like all the other "bubbles" have.) The derivatives debt bubble is just one piece, but the enormity of it is mind-boggling.

The "Strategic Investment" guy didn't even mention derivatives, and sees the US dollar and even capitalism imploding due to the end of the Petrodollar. It is conflicting and confusing information - and I don't have much money and no investments, so this isn't something I have been following from an investment/divestment angle. I realized that my opinion comes from bits and pieces I have gleaned over the last couple of years, and that I had no definitive website to send a family member to that might get them to quickly find the information they could use to make an informed decision.

That's why I asked.

Dennis

[T Smith]

Hi Dennis,

Below is a recent article from a very reputable source:

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2012...omy-end-world/

If you're not familiar with Roberts, he was the assistance Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan Administration and is highly regarded and acclaimed economist.

[Belle]

I'm late to the party as usual.

I did bookmark the following page a while ago...worth spending the time to read the whole thing...http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...a-single-event, an excerpt follows:

....Yes, there will certainly be times of great chaos. The financial crisis of 2008 was one of those moments.

But the financial crisis of 2008 did not completely destroy us.

Neither will the next crisis.

I think it is helpful to think of what is happening to us as a series of waves.

When you build a beautiful sand castle on the beach, the first wave that comes in does not totally destroy it.

Rather, the first wave weakens the castle and it is destroyed by subsequent waves.

Well, that is what is happening to us.

The financial crisis of 2008 was a wave.

The epicenter of the next great financial crisis will be in Europe and that will be another wave.

For many, the next financial crisis will feel like "the end of the world" but it won't be.

There will be waves after that one that will be even worse.

Yes, the waves are going to start coming more rapidly and will start becoming more intense.

In that way, they will kind of be like birth pains.

But these problems did not build up overnight and they are not going to disappear overnight either.

A lot of people that write about the coming economic collapse seem to suggest that we should just let it happen so that the "recovery" can begin.

Unfortunately, it is not going to be so simple.

It took decades to build up a national debt of almost 16 trillion dollars.

It took decades for American consumers to build up the greatest consumer debt bubble in the history of the world.

It took decades to gut the economic infrastructure of the United States and ship millions of our jobs overseas.

These problems are going to plague us for a very long time.

Sadly, a lot of people out there seem to wish for an economic apocalypse. They seem to think that if the global financial system crashes that the government is going to disappear and we are going to start fighting with each other using sharp pointed sticks.

Well, it simply is not going to happen.

The U.S. government is not going to help you survive when things hit the fan, but it is not going to disappear either.

In fact, the federal government will probably try to grab more power than ever in an attempt to "restore order"......

imo, they are letting things slowly implode to pull as much money out of the system as possible before a collapse.

When governments are putting in the controls they have the past several years, and especially lately [NDAA, FEMA camps, etc.], it is apparent they are preparing for after a collapse...just like they changed the bankruptcy laws prior to the real estate collapse and the importing of jobs overseas, to make sure debt would not be forgiven but that as much as possible would be paid back.

At risk of repeating myself over and over again...gather together a group of like-minded people with a variety of skills to form small self-supporting communities. You could even start an exchange of sorts right in your own neighborhood...gardening, "handyman", etc. Imo, it's the only way to survive what appears to be heading our way.

[crested-duck]

The British Join the American Revolution: Glass- Steagall Now!

July 15, 2012 • 8:45AM


by Dave Christie U.S. Candidate for Congress WA-9

The LIBOR (London InterBank Offer Rate) criminal scandal is about to hit Barack Obama, and is playing into the LaRouche Slate-led drive to get him out before the Democratic Party National Convention on September 3rd. Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke are already up to their necks in this criminal operation to murder our citizens, where major international banks conspired to manipulate key interest rates used by cities and states, bilking them for trillions and forcing budget cuts and austerity that is killing our citizens. This scandal is behind the wave of bankruptcies that are hitting cities in California, such as what has already struck Stockton and San Bernardino.

It is now beyond time for Glass- Steagall.

In the middle of the eruption of the LIBOR scandal, a powerful faction in the United Kingdom has now stated their intention to go with Glass- Steagall. This faction has come to understand that the only way to avoid the presently unfolding Dark Age in Europe and the United States is to go with a full throated FDR New Deal. That announcement by this faction in no way secures victory; it only creates the potential for victory, given that other factions of the British financial oligarchy continue to push their agenda of extinction, with calls for reducing the world population to less than one billion people. Russia and China have now called the bluff of that genocidal faction who has demanded that Asia join the suicide pact of economic disintegration of the transatlantic banking system Europe through zero-growth environmentalist policies and the bailouts, or face war- and thermonuclear war at that.

While the war danger still looms, saner heads in the British establishment are now moving with the LaRouche-led initiative to pull the world out of collapse with an FDR style New Deal, starting with the immediate restoration of Glass-Steagall. This powerful faction of the British Establishment has also called for a new Pecora Commission to get the “heads rolling” of the most criminal banksters. What better way to start the criminal proceedings than by exposing the unfolding LIBOR scandal?

We must be blunt about this “scandal.” This is not just a case where the “bankers have screwed us over yet one more time.” This is systematic murder in the tradition of Adolf Hitler. Hitler will look like a mere piker compared to those who created this swindle and the resulting murderous budget cuts. We must put these criminals behind bars, including those in and around the Obama administration. They cannot be allowed to claim ignorance of the consequences of the austerity demanded by their swindle. In the lead up to the passage of Glass- Steagall and FDR’s New Deal, Ferdinand Pecora put the worst of the Wall Street scumbags on the stand, and exposed their criminal activity. We must do the same today, and implement a new Pecora Commission immediately.

However, we aren’t going to wait for the conclusion of this new Pecora Commission to pass Glass- Steagall. Glass- Steagall must be implemented now, so that we can initiate today’s modern New Deal, beginning with the construction of NAWAPA XXI to employ 6 million people over the next 30 years. This requires the implementation of an American credit system, where credit is generated based on the credibility of the future wealth that it produces, and circulated through a regulated national banking system as Alexander Hamilton had designed.

We are running out of time to make this happen. Both Obama and Romney must be dumped as candidates now, before the conventions at the end of the summer. This has been the mission of the National LaRouche Slate, and we will not stop now. As was said by another genius, who had recruited layers of the British to join the American Revolution, “Join, or Die!”
http://larouchepac.com/node/23348

[mgray]

Dennis,
Not within your 6 month window, but at some point towards the end of 2013, I would think there would be a reputation of 50% of sovereign debt across the globe. At this point there needs to be reset, because the alternative is worse. How that plays out in capital markets is anyone"s guess. Credit default swaps should be triggered, but this instruments were not triggered on the previous Greek defaults. By some estimates there is $700 trillion notional value on these and other types of derivatives in the marketplace. Most are tied to currency swaps or interest-rate swaps to insulate against plunging currency values.

[waves]

Posted by Dennis Leahy (here)
You make some good, logical points. I have thought some of the same things, including the reality the the very top tier of international bankers (the top of the pyramid) has partial ownership in many corporations. This makes me think (and this is addressed to everyone)...

But then... (like you said, opinion swinging wildly) we now know that the 1929 crash was engineered by bankers. Bankers who must have also lost some money but knew with the shakedown, they would not only remain on top, but would further consolidate wealth and power into their hands. Leading up to 1929, I assume that the bankers that caused the crash and depression were at least loaning money to companies, (if not outright partial owners) and the crash did detrimentally affect those companies too. But the bankers went ahead with it anyway. Does this mean that they are just sociopathic chess players? Will they sacrifice rooks, bishops, and queens as long as they win the match?

When someone has trillions of dollars, losing most of their money will not affect their lifestyle. A analogy is that it is true that we all float on the same ocean, rising or falling as the ocean rises and falls - but most of us are hanging onto flotsam while the Financial Elite are in the crows nests of tall-masted ships. We drown when the waves get big; they are largely unaffected.

So, is there a gambit in engineering a complete monetary collapse, immediately losing piles of your own money right along with the average slobs, but planning on a power grab when assets like land and even businesses can be purchased for pennies on the dollar? They also know that they have the inside track to filling their bank vaults back up - they are insiders to the system, and are not held back by "scruples" or "conscience."

Won't the giant corporations survive regardless, even with a severe depression? Certainly (if there is no paradigm change in governance), the "defense" contractors will do just fine, as will many of the top 100 corporations. Even in those corporations that might fail, the CEO and the next tier down will be just fine.

Aren't the Global Ruling Bankers in a league of their own when it comes to global macro-economics? Trying to think like a sociopath, for a moment, do they really care who gets hurt, as long as they get what they want?

Dennis

Yes to all the similarities you cite to those in power then and now and the engineered 29 crash. The X factor to me are the big differences in the world then and now - especially 20 years now of worldwide communicating AND infrastructure of commerce being done on the internet. They can't pull the plug on the internet without grave backlash.

Also, as stupid as we mostly collectively still are, the difference between the sheeple then and now is vastly improved and more aware and history-EXPERIENCED, and the difference in the numbers of people and systems in place is vastly different. It was a LOT simpler to cover all their bases when engineering a crash in 29. There may be too many loose ends to be able to stay in control after a plug-pulling now.

However, I am still not throwing out that the plan may have changed to slow bloodletting over plug-pulling if I am right about these factors.

That said, from the perspective that there are few less educated than me about the financial world, my elementary observation and gut feeling regarding your other post comment about the derivative elephant in the room to us Category A's... if it's all phony debt paid with phony money created out of thin air to create phony stories to lay on us, is it a phony elephant unless we all agree it's there? We collectively probably will, but it's not there.

That's where I hit a wall. Yes, the phony elephant effect will continue. My way of not playing along as much as possible is with credit unions, property, escape prep, staying observant, enjoying continuing to pursue my art and really enjoying every unchaotic minute until further notice.... :-)

[Dennis Leahy]

Posted by mgray (here)
Dennis,
Not within your 6 month window, but at some point towards the end of 2013, I would think there would be a reputation of 50% of sovereign debt across the globe. At this point there needs to be reset, because the alternative is worse. How that plays out in capital markets is anyone"s guess. Credit default swaps should be triggered, but this instruments were not triggered on the previous Greek defaults. By some estimates there is $700 trillion notional value on these and other types of derivatives in the marketplace. Most are tied to currency swaps or interest-rate swaps to insulate against plunging currency values.

Sorry, I need a bit of translation for some of that.

"reputation of 50% of sovereign debt"
I'm not sure what you mean by this


"At this point there needs to be reset"
reset=debt forgiveness?

"Credit default swaps should be triggered...
...currency swaps or interest-rate swaps to insulate against plunging currency values."
does this mean there is a cushion against plunging currency, or a double-whammy against currency - hastening the plunge when these derivatives implode/explode?

Dennis

[mgray]

Yes repudiation and reset are the same. 50% off sale on all government debt. Swaps are hedges or insurance against your position going bad. So if you and I invested in 10-year Greek bonds in 2007 paying 3% interest. We would have lost our investment because Greece defaulted on that note and issued a bond that is payable in 10 years just principle no interest.
But the players who put Greece in this position by cooking their books in 1999-2000 so they could gain entry into the euro (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros. etc) all took insurance -- or had a cushion as you say -- on that bet through credit default swaps. They were paid more for the default than if it paid off, by virtue of the swaps trading higher as the default seem more eminent.

[Dennis Leahy]

I have parents in their 90's, as well as a big family (lots of siblings and several generations) who are good people who have basically worked their asses off for their whole lives. They are (mostly) among the group most of us see as 'sheeple.' They generally trust the US government but grumble and believe it is this Party or that Party that causes problems. They eat "conventionally grown" food because they trust the USDA is looking out for them. They drink fluoridated water because they believe the ADA is watching out for them. They probably know Big Finance is filled with crooks, but have no idea the level and degree of collusion with the US government (or again, blame it on a Party, and see an electoral solution.)

Some of them could care less what I say, and run away from any conversation that makes them uncomfortable. Others are more open and a few have started asking questions. We're not about to talk about time travelers, alternate timelines, or existing zero-point technology being used in underground cities... but, like I said, these are not lazy people and they are starting to wonder what the hell is really going on financially, and especially, what specifically they can do to safeguard their earnings to take care of their families. The info really is not for me. I have my pile of nickels in a Credit union, have been drying and storing food and a few supplies, and right now I'm off to weed my organic garden.

I mention all of this to steer the conversation back to the OP, and to try to get some info that is geared more to average folks that have not spent any time down the rabbit hole.

Dennis

p.s. It is my opinion that of the people who are "unawakened", a financial crisis that puts them in constant fear or destroys them financially, leaving them in survival mode, will pretty much take away any opportunity to educate themselves by researching. If you volunteer at a soup kitchen, you won't see much inquisitiveness or fire in the eyes of those lined up for food. So, especially if there really is an impending financial disaster right around the bend, it it now-or-never to get this info to them.

[mgray]

In the current environment your family will be the ones to feel it the worst. They will get no interest on their savings. Unfortunately the dollar is the one-eyed king in this game. It is the strongest currency in the land of the weak. Yes the euro trades $1.22 to a dollar, which says that the euro is stronger, but it was $1.40 to the dollar a year ago.
So as international investors look for a safe place to put their money it is with Uncle Sam. That drives down interest rates paid on all savings accounts.
As US consumers stop spending, growth in Asia falls, since we aren't buying the third big-screen TV for the house.
The stock market is hinged to two gate posts. The cheaper dollar in 2010-11 drove markets higher. With that reversing, it is now praying at the altar of the Fed to give them a heroin shot of more quantitative easing.
The easing provides more cash for banks by allowing them to sell their worst assets to the Fed for more cash to trade in questionable investments, see London Whale and JPMorgan.
If commodities such as gold can disconnect from falling on stronger dollar that can be a saver for us individual investors.
With the US job market still in the toilet, there is very little fear of inflation to drive up metal prices.
If many people on the street will do your job for less than you get paid, there is little chance you'll get a big enough raise to create wage inflation, which is needed for run away inflation to occur.
The big crime here is that all US banks have access to cheap capital. Less than 0.5% interest paid for borrowing, yet try to get a mortgage or business loan from a bank.
The banks say no one wants to borrow, yet the levels of loans denied has grown.
Hope this provides some information on cause and effect to offer across the picnic table at family gatherings.

[Belle]

Dennis, could you start a conversation with your parents about the great depression? My Mom is 82 and has never forgotten how her family (her mom and dad and 11 children) made it through that time. She's always had a little stockpile of canned goods and a freezer full of meats and dairy (especially butter), some cash on hand as well as a nest egg in a credit union and her home is paid off..."just in case" she says. And I've given her a silver coin for each special occasion throughout the year since silver was $7. an ounce...those she saves 'for a rainy day.'

For the past several years, my neighbors and I have a "garden exchange"...my yard is primarily shaded, not good for a full garden, but great for growing potatoes with a bit of room for peas, zucchini and tomatoes. My neighbors each grow different things. We have a few days during the season that we share our 'harvests', spending the day canning and/or dehydrating, making pickles and jams, etc and splitting the bounty.

I first suggested this to them when I moved to the neighborhood 9 years ago, presenting it as a way of getting to know each other. It turned out to be so much fun...as well as a way to learn to work together for a common good. Now we inevitably talk about how much money we're saving by doing this. One of the single guys doesn't have much time to garden...he does minor repairs for us in exchange for part of the bounty. Now my daughter has started the same thing in her neighborhood. It is a non-threatening way of building trust and helping each other out...much needed when difficult times are upon us.

I don't want to frighten my Mom, so I just share some of what I'm doing. If she asks why, I'll tell her in preparation for the second great depression we may have someday.

[ljwheat]

Its incredible to me, those who have it feel the need to let some one else to hold their basket of eggs looking to increase there baskets intake.

When any of this go’s south, why would you trust someone else to still hold your basket. Any new venture in global society, any journey ventured west weather alone or in a wagon train. One needs to hold his own basket till the journey is at hand or completed.

If you know you are stable and will stand on your own when the rest of the world collapses. Standing in your own pool of assets. When others will run in all direction, not in your best interests at a time never before seen? Its seem's prudent to pull your family together and create a system incorruptible and wont run away at the drop of the hat.

It is not the time for money to make money as usual, FT. Knox, be the bank you want to see, Be the grocery store you want to see, Be the change you want to see. Be the system that works, when you know the rest will fall.

Be your own insurance policy, quite giving it away to others to handle your affairs. Letting others handle your affair’s right now is IMO insanity thinking that they some how know more than you. Drop the greed of more, and pull in your resource’s when you still have the will to do so. Its no longer a warning. When it falls its over, and all this talk will mean nothing. Stop playing with your egg’s. be your own banker. John xoxo

[ljwheat]

Dennis

p.s. It is my opinion that of the people who are "unawakened", a financial crisis that puts them in constant fear or destroys them financially, leaving them in survival mode, will pretty much take away any opportunity to educate themselves by researching. If you volunteer at a soup kitchen, you won't see much inquisitiveness or fire in the eyes of those lined up for food. So, especially if there really is an impending financial disaster right around the bend, it it now-or-never to get this info to them.

This reminds me of a story or a ship “Titanic” here we see an identical ship that’s about to leave port. With the for knowledge of the last ships folly, taking the time to build one’s own ship for safe passage, any other choice is to go down with the ship your family trusts. The ship of the unawakened, family or not some one must step into the new. Is that going to be you? This may sound cold, but some will make it threw. its a personal choice. Stay on dry land, when there wet and sinking and reaching out there hand to be saved, pull them in. You can't save a house thats divided. If your not safe? how will that help them?

John xoxo

[Unified Serenity]

This is how I feel

[ljwheat]

Obama, Romney, Mickey Mouse, Ron Paul, If they were all at home inside the belt way when a big hole opened up and no survivors. I’m still going to wake up in the morning, sh**, shower, and save, Have my coffee, do my chores and go about my day with the other people around me, all of witch are going to do the right thing and contiue living. As that’s having a life, having an X on a ballet once every for years means nothing to any of us that have a life, I say let the hole open up.

We never needed them ever, why do people think we still do? They’ve never sat at my dinner table, or pumped gas into my lawn mower. Or delivered the mail to my door, cocked me dinner washed my cloths. So if there is a hole in Washington and things would carry on with out them. Stop putting your votes in a hole? if no one voted would you still live your life? you wont know if you dont let that hole open. quit feeding the stage thay allllll stand on. i dont need them to enjoy a good cup of coffee. and will never be apart of my life.

John xoxo

I determine where, how, and when I spend or hide my penny’s. not the belt way.

[Dennis Leahy]

Posted by Unified Serenity (here)
This is how I feel

{Image deleted. One image of that jerk in a thread is one too many}

Yeah, I have family members who think that it matters who and which party is in the white house. Of course, with the Financial Elite vetting, approving, hiring, and supporting/sponsoring BOTH the D and the R candidate, it really doesn't matter which one wins.

I really don't want to argue the political party thing here, and dilute the thread. I'm surprised that at Avalon, where the Secret Government pulling marionette strings and a clear understanding of the collusion between whichever clown takes office in the White House or Congress and the Financial Elite is a given, that any of us let slip the old thinking that political Parties matter. I believe that the financial policy of Bush (R) and Obama (D) being pretty much identical proves it does not matter. The Financial Elite will win the US presidency. One of the two candidates sponsored by international bankers will win the US presidency, and they will do as they are told.

please.

Dennis

[Mulder]

Posted by mgray (here)
Yes repudiation and reset are the same. 50% off sale on all government debt. Swaps are hedges or insurance against your position going bad. So if you and I invested in 10-year Greek bonds in 2007 paying 3% interest. We would have lost our investment because Greece defaulted on that note and issued a bond that is payable in 10 years just principle no interest.
But the players who put Greece in this position by cooking their books in 1999-2000 so they could gain entry into the euro (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros. etc) all took insurance -- or had a cushion as you say -- on that bet through credit default swaps. They were paid more for the default than if it paid off, by virtue of the swaps trading higher as the default seem more eminent.

Thank you for your input on this thread. I've found your posts very interesting. You talk like you are, or have been in the financial industry. I have to agree with you as there are elections in the USA later in the year & the economy has to be kept going at least until then - I don't think these elections will be cancelled as too many ripples will be caused & frankly, both contenders will be puppets so they might as well continue with the charade.

[rmauersr]