Ken Ring's Predictions for November Solar Eclipse, Oceana

[KiwiElf]

Dark morning in November

Ken Ring | View Archive August 9, 2012, 12:07 pm

http://nz.news.yahoo.com/opinion/pos...g-in-november/

A total solar eclipse of the sun is coming which is worth noting.

During a solar eclipse, the moon's apparent diameter is larger than the sun, blocking all direct sunlight for viewers on earth and turning day into darkness as the moon passes between earth and sun. Totality occurs in a narrow path across the surface of the earth.

This event will occur on 14 November around 10:30 AM(NZ Time) and this time the maximum eclipse will be almost over New Zealand, passing 1100 miles to our east.

The best place on the globe to see it from will be Cairns, followed by Norfolk Island and Auckland 4 hours after Cairns. Whilst Cairns gets 100% of the visual effect, Auckland will see 80% of the sun obscured, and Christchurch, 60%.

The cycle of solar and lunar eclipses around the earth repeats every 223 lunar months, which means 223 full Moons must be counted before earth, moon and sun are again in the same positions in the sky. It means these total solar eclipses occur every roughly 18 years. The last was in 1994 and the next will be in 2030.

This eclipse will be 12 hours before lunar perigee, and perigee eclipses should be respected. The 14 November is the day of new moon, the day the moon is third closest to earth for the whole year (perigee), and also in direct line ("node") with the sun.

Consequently the moon will exert extra gravitational pull on earth not diminished by parallax. These factors allow increased turbulence to land sea and air. The 14th is also the first day of a kingtide that will last until the 16th.

Eclipses were feared in ancient times but much of the reason why has become lost in antiquity. Today it is an unrecognised science and if extreme weather arrives around an eclipse it is more likely to be called a fluke.

However it will be found that eclipses are always in some way related to the area of a disaster, especially if the eclipse is visible in the predicted area of a disaster.

A magnitude 6 earthquake struck Japan as a total solar eclipse occurred on March 29, 2006 and within 24 hours the satellite responsible for NZ's SKY Network Television failed. On the 31st a 6.1-mag earthquake struck western Iran.

Following the August 1999 solar eclipse, destructive floods came to France and Italy, major earthquakes occurred in Turkey and Greece, and a huge cyclone hit India. Martinique’s Mt. Pelee eruption in 1902 was preceded by a total lunar eclipse.

Sometimes an eclipse [event] may occur a month or two beforehand. The solar eclipse of 10 May 1994 may have triggered one month later the 1994 Arthurs Pass earthquake of 6.7mag which was the largest on land in NZ for 65 years and which spawned over 12,000 seismic events over the next two years in Canterbury.

The Tangshan, China earthquake of 1976 may also be a good example, with an eclipse over Tangshan three months earlier. The same may hold true for the 1900 Galveston, TX hurricane that claimed over 6,000 lives, preceded by a solar eclipse just four months earlier. And yet again they all may be amazing coincidences.

Right now we are about three months out from 14 November. But there has already been activity beneath Mt Tongariro and White Island and a noticeable increase in earthquakes to the northeast of the North island close to the eclipse path. Stress and unsettlement may be brewing way down under the plates which may culminate in something larger between now and the eclipse.

Total eclipses can also bring sudden temperature drops. During the 7 March 1970 eclipse the temperature in Norfolk, Virginia fell by 11degC. In the eclipse of 11 July 1991 the temperature in Baja California dropped 7degC. During total eclipse if there is a lot of moisture aloft, the dew point may be reached very quickly as temperature drops and extensive sheets of heavy cloud may form.

So the situation is worth a warning, but probably not a panic warning. However, as always, exact magnitude and location is unpredictable and the most we can say is that the time is a risk-filled one.

Vigilance should be observed in areas showing the greatest seismic murmurings and Civil Defence should be alerted. Whenever there is a significant shake there are also smaller shakes in other prone zones.

Due to significant moon positions alone we can say that over the kingtide+close perigee+new moon+southern declination interval of 13-16 November, heavy rain and flooding are likely from Central Plateau southwards, expected to cover much of the South Island. The widespread heavy rain may be associated with significant electrical activity, with squalls and thunderstorms also affecting central New Zealand.

Consequently the Tararua and Ruahine Ranges could receive torrential rain, flooding may affect parts of Wellington and rivers may burst banks in Wanganui, southern Wairarapa, Buller and Fiordland. Also, by the 17 November, westerlies may reach gale force in central and eastern regions.

The November eclipse will probably add weight to these possibilities and there is plenty of time now to prepare.

Ken Ring of www.predictweather.com is a longrange forecaster for Australia's Channel Seven

[KiwiElf]

The full moon and Hurricane Sandy
Ken Ring | View Archive October 31, 2012, 10:21 am

http://nz.news.yahoo.com/opinion/pos...rricane-sandy/

It may not have escaped readers’ attention that Hurricane Sandy has peaked on the exact day of full moon.

Perigees (day of moon closest to earth for the month) supply intensity of extreme weather systems.

Perigee exaggerates the air tide, creating lower air height and enabling the searing heat of the equatorial summer sun to come closer to the surface of the sea at or near the equator.

This in turn allows the temperature at the sea’s surface to reach the required 26°C that is needed to activate massive evaporation within 6° latitude of the equator to create a cyclone.

In comparison, the average surface temperature of the ocean is only 16°C.

Hurricane Sandy has been running true to the rules of the moon.

Hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons, all one and the same thing, happen with full/new moons and involve Perigees.

Right on Perigee day 17 October, Sandy popped into the eastern Caribbean Sea.

At first a low pressure area, extra heat from the moon’s Southern Declination of 19th allowed Sandy to become a tropical wave within 2 days.

The southern moon trekking north on 21 October pulled Sandy towards the US mainland. The full moon has halted her progress.

Hurricane Sandy is near the end of the northern hemisphere hurricane season which runs from June to November.

Sandy formed because the October Perigee was a powerful 6th-closest to earth for 2012.

Sandy was always going to be losing the fight to stay relevant after Perigee day 17 October. Her edge would brush the mainland, but not her brunt.

Consequently Sandy was always going to be history by Full Moon day 29th, losing her eye and at the same time hurricane status.

As her remnants went ashore the winds immediately dropped.

A quick look at this year’s hurricanes reveals the commonality in patterns; and the reader may see that hurricanes are new or full moon-related in instigation, and require Perigee for strength and maximisation.

The season started with Subtropical Storm “Beryl” on New Moon day 21 May, and although Beryl ran out of puff in a week, Perigee/full moon day 4 June made remnants of Beryl intensify into a new storm in the east.

On Northern Declination/new moon day 19 June, the US National Hurricane Center renamed Tropical Storm Chris as “Hurricane Chris” although it only lasted 3 days then withered.

Two days after Perigee day 29 July, a system called Tropical Depression 5 developed into “Hurricane Ernesto”, becoming Tropical Storm Ernesto on full moon day 2 August, striking Mexico on 9 August and dying the next day.

“Hurricane Gordon” peaked as a Category 2 hurricane on New Moon day 18 August, then immediately started weakening, displaced by a new system called Tropical Depression-9 on 21 August and intensifying on Perigee day 24 August.

It developed its eye the next day, the 25th, shortly before making landfall at Haiti and subsequently dying.

“Hurricane Kirk” developed in the same time frame, dying on Full Moon day 31 August.

This full moon saw two other systems start, one becoming “Hurricane Leslie” two days later, affecting Newfoundland and Canada but only lasting another week, and another called “Hurricane Michael” with the same duration, affecting the Cape Verde Islands.

“Hurricane Isaac” also started on New Moon day 18 August, its eye developing on 24 August (Perigee 23 August) and dying as an extratropical cyclone over Missouri on 31 August, the day of full moon, exactly as Hurricane Sandy has done.

On 15 September, only one day before new moon day 16 September, saw “Hurricane Nadine” named.

The wind-field became larger than average on Perigee day 19 September, after which Nadine transitioned to a subtropical cyclone on 21 September.

On 15 October, “Hurricane Rafael” strengthened into a Category-1 hurricane the day before new noon/Perigee of 16th/17 October.

The storm intensified east of Bermuda, reaching peak winds of 150 km/h exactly on that new moon/Perigee day.

Soon after, it began to weaken to become an extra-tropical cyclone later in the day of 17 October.

Our own 1988 “Cyclone Bola” formed on 17 February, the New Moon/Perigee day.

Bola took 10 days to reach hurricane-force, and died on full moon day 3 March, the remnants passing to the north of the North Island of New Zealand on March 8.

Bola continued to weaken and was finally absorbed by a stationary trough near the South Island on March 12.

Cyclones “Fergus” in the last days of December 1996, and two weeks later “Dreena” in January 1997 was one moon cycle of 19 years after Bola, almost exactly to the month, and may be said to have been Bola on a return trip.

Fergus formed straight after 24 December (day of Full Moon + Northern Declination).

Dreena was at its most destructive 10-12 January, due to New Moon/Perigee 9-10 January, hardly any coincidence.

So why is it that meteorologists do not recognise the moon in forecasting? The answer, when it comes to science and truth is money.

Cycles simply do not sell newspapers.

Scare stories do.

We read and hear the phrase "Worst since records began!", or "Worst in living memory!" so very often these days.

It is the media’s bread and butter.

If it was more widely known that such storms have happened often before, as would be the situation in the case of a cycle, then such headlines would be more readily recognised as science lies.

It is perhaps the greatest scientific gaff of the previous century, and still ongoing, that the moon has been factored out of all weather models.

But meteorologists have put themselves in an impossible and invidious position, because to admit the moon’s role now would put egg on their faces.

Ken Ring of www.predictweather.com is author of the Weather Almanac for NZ for 2013 (publisher Random House)