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Thread: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

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    Australia Avalon Member astrid's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Removed.. another youtube hoax

    sorry folks,
    and thanks Carmody for letting me know
    Last edited by astrid; 17th February 2013 at 09:33.
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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Quote Posted by Referee (here)
    Looks like something went through the metorite..Perhaps shoot at by something... Good video evidence IMO...

    BUMP BUMP BUMP this is strange guys and girls, watch that a few times.

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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Boom, big boom, badabigboom, holy cow, lots of badabigbooms.


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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    -------

    A good article for math nerds:

    http://edition.cnn.com/2013/02/16/op...html?hpt=hp_c2

    (the interesting bit extracted --> )

    Both events happening within one day makes us think they could be connected. That instinct comes from doing the math -- if it is improbable, then we think it cannot be a coincidence. But the facts don't support this conclusion. First of all, in the time between the two events, the Earth moved roughly 300,000 miles, meaning the asteroid and the meteor were in completely different places. Moreover, they traveled in completely different directions, so they couldn't have been associated.

    So there is no way the meteor and the asteroid are connected. It has to be a coincidence that the two events happened on the same day. Yet this would seem to be at odds with our instinct that two very rare things would not happen at the same time.

    How can we reconcile these two opposite thoughts: the impossibility of an association based on the physics of trajectories, and the improbability of coincidence (lack of association) that the math suggests?

    The answer is that we need to rethink the probability calculation. If asteroids as big as DA14 pass close to Earth once every decade or two, and meteors as large as the Chelyabinsk one impact once every 100 years (a similar meteor having caused the Tunguska event in 1908), the chance of both events happening on any one day are indeed very small: 1 in 3,650 days times 1 in 36,500 days, or about 1 in 100 million -- not odds you would bet against.

    But think again: The Earth has been around for 4.5 billion years -- which is 1.6 trillion days. So the chance that these two events would happen on a day sometime in the earth's history is actually larger than we first thought -- it ought to have happened about 12,000 times already.

    Of course, during most of that 4.5 billion year history, the earth was not populated by intelligent life -- human beings who might have noticed the two events happening on the same day.

    So what is the probability that the meteor hits and the asteroid passes Earth on the same day when someone could record it on video? That's probably been possible for about 50 years, or only about five years if we have to do it on a smartphone or dashboard camera. That's 1,825 days, which means the chance of someone filming the event is only about one in 70,000 -- and that's if people blanketed the Earth. Given how sparsely the Earth is populated, we should correct this number downward by a (large!) geographical factor. It's also unlikely that this event would happen within 3,000 miles of the Tunguska impact.

    What to think? Our rough calculation says a large meteor impact on the same day as closest passage of the DA14 asteroid is really improbable. But it did happen. Something in our assumptions could be wrong. For example, the frequency of meteor impacts could be much larger and our estimates too low because we don't notice most of them.

    Then again, maybe sometimes, long odds just pay off.

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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Quote Posted by Referee (here)
    Looks like something went through the metorite..Perhaps shoot at by something... Good video evidence IMO...

    Referee, thank you for digging that video up because, if original and unaltered, it means that the object that zapped across the meteor unscathed was travelling at about twice as fast as the meteor itself. That is, at about 80,000 mph!


    Quote NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., now say the meteor weighed about 10,000 tons and was travelling 40,000 mph (64,373 km/h) when it exploded.
    UFO anyone?
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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Might explain why so many "rescuers" - 20,000 plus - have been sent out? And they didn't detect it coming??
    Remember Roswell... no "left overs"

    EDIT: I should add, that any meteorite fragment found would also be quite valuable in terms of $$
    Last edited by KiwiElf; 18th February 2013 at 04:07.

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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    For another perspective on the subject, from http://www.space.com/6829-military-h...lassified.html:

    Military Hush-Up: Incoming Space Rocks Now Classified

    by Leonard David, SPACE.com's Space Insider Columnist
    Date: 10 June 2009 Time: 05:35 PM ET

    For 15 years, scientists have benefited from data gleaned by U.S. classified satellites of natural fireball events in Earth's atmosphere – but no longer.

    A recent U.S. military policy decision now explicitly states that observations by hush-hush government spacecraft of incoming bolides and fireballs are classified secret and are not to be released, SPACE.com has learned.

    The satellites' main objectives include detecting nuclear bomb tests, and their characterizations of asteroids and lesser meteoroids as they crash through the atmosphere has been a byproduct data bonanza for scientists.

    The upshot: Space rocks that explode in the atmosphere are now classified.

    "It's baffling to us why this would suddenly change," said one scientist familiar with the work. "It's unfortunate because there was this great synergy…a very good cooperative arrangement. Systems were put into dual-use mode where a lot of science was getting done that couldn't be done any other way. It's a regrettable change in policy."

    Scientists say not only will research into the threat from space be hampered, but public understanding of sometimes dramatic sky explosions will be diminished, perhaps leading to hype and fear of the unknown.

    Incoming!
    Most "shooting stars" are caused by natural space debris no larger than peas. But routinely, rocks as big as basketballs and even small cars crash into the atmosphere. Most vaporize or explode on the way in, but some reach the surface or explode above the surface. Understandably, scientists want to know about these events so they can better predict the risk here on Earth.

    Yet because the world is two-thirds ocean, most incoming objects aren't visible to observers on the ground. Many other incoming space rocks go unnoticed because daylight drowns them out.

    Over the last decade or so, hundreds of these events have been spotted by the classified satellites. Priceless observational information derived from the spacecraft were made quickly available, giving researchers such insights as time, a location, height above the surface, as well as light-curves to help pin down the amount of energy churned out from the fireballs.

    And in the shaky world we now live, it's nice to know that a sky-high detonation is natural versus a nuclear weapon blast.

    Where the space-based surveillance truly shines is over remote stretches of ocean – far away from the prospect of ground-based data collection.

    But all that ended within the last few months, leaving scientists blind-sided and miffed by the shift in policy. The hope is that the policy decision will be revisited and overturned.

    Critical importance
    "The fireball data from military or surveillance assets have been of critical importance for assessing the impact hazard," said David Morrison, a Near Earth Object (NEO) scientist at NASA's Ames Research Center. He noted that his views are his own, not as a NASA spokesperson.

    The size of the average largest atmospheric impact from small asteroids is a key piece of experimental data to anchor the low-energy end of the power-law distribution of impactors, from asteroids greater than 6 miles (10 kilometers) in diameter down to the meter scale, Morrison told SPACE.com.

    "These fireball data together with astronomical observations of larger near-Earth asteroids define the nature of the impact hazard and allow rational planning to deal with this issue," Morrison said.

    Morrison said that fireball data are today playing additional important roles.
    As example, the fireball data together with infrasound allowed scientists to verify the approximate size and energy of the unique Carancas impact in the Altiplano -- on the Peru-Bolivia border -- on Sept. 15, 2007.

    Fireball information also played an important part in the story of the small asteroid 2008 TC3, Morrison said. That was the first-ever case of the astronomical detection of a small asteroid before it hit last year. The fireball data were key for locating the impact point and the subsequent recovery of fragments from this impact.

    Link in public understanding
    Astronomers are closing in on a years-long effort to find most of the potentially devastating large asteroids in our neck of the cosmic woods, those that could cause widespread regional or global devastation. Now they plan to look for the smaller stuff.
    So it is ironic that the availability of these fireball data should be curtailed just at the time the NEO program is moving toward surveying the small impactors that are most likely to be picked up in the fireball monitoring program, Morrision said.

    "These data have been available to the scientific community for the past decade," he said. "It is unfortunate this information is shut off just when it is becoming more valuable to the community interested in characterizing near Earth asteroids and protecting our planet from asteroid impacts."

    The newly issued policy edict by the U.S. military of reporting fireball observations from satellites also caught the attention of Clark Chapman, a planetary scientist and asteroid impact expert at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado.
    "I think that this information is very important to make public," Chapman told SPACE.com.

    "More important than the scientific value, I think, is that these rare, bright fireballs provide a link in public understanding to the asteroid impact hazard posed by still larger and less frequent asteroids," Chapman explained.

    Those objects are witnessed by unsuspecting people in far-flung places, Chapman said, often generating incorrect and exaggerated reports.

    "The grounding achieved by associating these reports by untrained observers with the satellite measurements is very useful for calibrating the observer reports and closing the loop with folks who think they have seen something mysterious and extraordinary," Chapman said.
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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Quote Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
    -------



    So what is the probability that the meteor hits and the asteroid passes Earth on the same day when someone could record it on video? That's probably been possible for about 50 years, or only about five years if we have to do it on a smartphone or dashboard camera. That's 1,825 days, which means the chance of someone filming the event is only about one in 70,000 -- and that's if people blanketed the Earth. Given how sparsely the Earth is populated, we should correct this number downward by a (large!) geographical factor. It's also unlikely that this event would happen within 3,000 miles of the Tunguska impact.

    What to think? Our rough calculation says a large meteor impact on the same day as closest passage of the DA14 asteroid is really improbable. But it did happen. Something in our assumptions could be wrong. For example, the frequency of meteor impacts could be much larger and our estimates too low because we don't notice most of them.

    Then again, maybe sometimes, long odds just pay off.
    [/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT][/INDENT]
    Wow Bill , you are coming more and more spooky with logic's force.
    I thought myself is the only unnecessary spooky at this event.

    In 1908, an asteroid or comet measuring tens of metres across detonated about 10km above Siberia. The explosion flattened some 80 million trees over an area of 2,000 sq km (800 sq m) near the Tunguska River - as luck would have it, a sparsely populated region.
    20 Hiroshimas really ? where is the impact location pictures?
    What is wrong with this event?
    something is not just right with projector's trail


    http://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...889#post636889
    Last edited by Tangri; 18th February 2013 at 05:29.

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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Something Odd going on in Key West this evening....

    Last edited by Referee; 18th February 2013 at 06:02.
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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Quote Posted by Amzer Zo (here)
    Referee, thank you for digging that video up because, if original and unaltered, it means that the object that zapped across the meteor unscathed was travelling at about twice as fast as the meteor itself. That is, at about 80,000 mph!

    Quote NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., now say the meteor weighed about 10,000 tons and was travelling 40,000 mph (64,373 km/h) when it exploded.
    UFO anyone?
    My very first thought when I saw that video was that, if it was real, the intercepting object was travelling much faster than any known defence missiles. My next thought of course was that the primary object was less than a minute off course, missing the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting in Moscow by ~1800 Km...

    This page has some interesting analysis of the primary object's trajectory, roughly westerly, so less than a minute to Moscow:



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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Quote Posted by panopticon (here)
    [...]

    This page has some interesting analysis of the primary object's trajectory, roughly westerly, so less than a minute to Moscow:



    -- Pan
    Make it 15 to 25 degrees (unless talking about "time")... the path being subparallel to the border with Kazakshtan:


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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Meteorite Fragments Found in Icy Urals Lake

    MOSCOW, February 17 (RIA Novosti) – The fragments of a meteorite that hit Russia’s Urals on Friday, injuring more than 1,000 people in the area, have been found by scientists in Lake Chebarkul, in the Chelyabinsk Region.


    “We have just completed the study, we confirm that the particulate matters, found by our expedition in the area of Lake Chebarkul indeed have meteorite nature,” Viktor Grohovsky of the Urals Federal University said.

    “This meteorite is an ordinary chondrite, it is a stony meteorite which contains some 10 percent of iron. It is most likely to be named Chebarkul meteorite,” Grohovsky said.

    Eyewitness Footage of Meteorite Strikes
    Zoom InAdd to blog

    NASA estimates the Russian meteorite was roughly 50 feet (15 meters) in diameter when it struck Earth's atmosphere on Friday, travelling faster than the speed of sound, and exploded into a fireball brighter than the sun.

    A flaming meteorite streaked across the sky and slammed into Russia’s Urals with a massive boom that blew out windows and damaged thousands of buildings around the city of Chelyabinsk, injuring 1,200 people in the area. According to the Health Ministry, 52 were hospitalized.

    The rare and spectacular phenomenon sparked confusion and panic among residents of the region and was captured by numerous witnesses on video that quickly spread to television and computer screens around the world.







    source
    Last edited by Eram; 18th February 2013 at 09:16.

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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Video of the primary object that were used as triangulations in the blog post I mentioned:

    Yemanzhelinsk.


    Korkino.


    Then there's all the Chelyabinsk footage we've seen previously.

    I downloaded Google Earth to view the triangulation they created and it actually took me back a bit. The red line is the trajectory they have calculated.



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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Well, something definitely doesn't quite add up between the satellite shot and the constructed trajectory...
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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Quote Posted by Amzer Zo (here)
    Well, something definitely doesn't quite add up between the satellite shot and the constructed trajectory...
    G'day Amzer Zo,

    To tell you the truth I was only just mucking around when I said about the G-20 summit in Moscow.
    I know buggar all about calculating trajectories and only had a look online for someone who had done a rough calculation and found the blog I mentioned.
    They were saying ENE direction and that was all I knew.
    So I thought "Well they've got a Google Earth thingy to do with it so why not have a laugh" so downloaded GE while having dinner.

    I was actually quite shocked when I looked at the trajectory they had worked out.

    What is said in the site about the sat image you mentioned is:

    Quote How does this data square with the Meteosat 9 image that has being doing the rounds? At first glance, not well: Overlaying the image in Google Earth and aligning the border with Kazakhstan shows a 240km contrail that appears to end some 75km to the ENE of Chelyabinsk, even though the path when traced on the ground also leads directly to Lake Chebarkul.

    At first, I thought the image might have been taken 5 minutes earlier, before the meteor streaked straight across Chelyabinsk proper, because the image’s metadata gives us a time of 3:15:00Z, or UTC, which is 6 hours behind Chelyabinsk time. But no meteor is going to take 5 minutes to traverse 75km, so we’ll just have to live with the time discrepancy. Webcams are not atomic clocks.

    Much more interesting is the fact that if you look at the position of Meteosat 9, which is in a geostationary orbit, you see that Chelyabinsk is near the horizon of its view of Earth. This leads to extreme foreshortening in the snapshot of the meteor’s contrail:



    The version used in the overlay is an enhanced view of this image, taken from the same angle. (The blacked-out upper right-hand corner of the overlay is behind the horizon as seen from Meteosat 9.). If you simulate this view of Chelyabinsk in Google Earth, you see that in fact, the contrail aligns quite nicely over Chelyabinsk considering that it would be 30km high and at such an extreme angle over the horizon. So the 4.7 seconds of maximal brightness (with contrail) do get to happen just south of Chelyabinsk proper, as per the above video, and without contradiction by Meteosat 9.
    Source.
    Now I can't make head nor tail of this, and he admits that he isn't a scientist, but there are a number of people who are commenting on it adding information.

    What started as a bit of tongue in cheek on my part is all getting a bit weird.
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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Hi pan.

    I was talking about this shot:


    ... with respect to the Kazakhstan border.

    However, there is one possiblity and that is that the satellite was in the same plane formed by the contrail projected to ground (green, in their reconstruction). In that case, it all fits perfectly and I guess that's what the blogger is trying to say about the satellite position at the time of the above picture.

    Whereas, the following picture almost gives the vertical trajectory of the contrail in the atmosphere:


    Last edited by Hervé; 18th February 2013 at 09:43.
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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Quote Posted by Referee (here)
    Looks like something went through the metorite..Perhaps shoot at by something... Good video evidence IMO...


    Confession: When I saw this post I thought: "Nonsense. No way could the Russians shoot down a small object traveling at 33,000 mph."

    But I watched the video -- and now I'm not nearly so sure. It really looks as if something solid and non-explosive struck the object cleanly from one side (coming from the left), and continued out of the frame to the right.

    The video is pretty clear for what it is. It looked like what one would expect from a kinetic energy weapon. That's a very fast, large bullet, to you and me.

    Here's the concept, which was always part of the Star Wars program (and the Russians have their equivalent, too):
    http://dkosopedia.com/wiki/Brilliant_Pebbles

    If the Russians really do have the technology to do this, the Americans should be worried. It would mean they can take down any satellite, missile or advanced aircraft they want to, at any time they choose.

    The other outlandish explanation (more outlandish? Maybe not!) is that ETs intervened. I can't think of any other way to explain the video other than the above two suggestions.

    Watch the video.

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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Agreed.

    Lot of strange stuff happening.

    Everyone see Dutch's vid???



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    United States Avalon Member Referee's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Here is something interesting a new thought on the incident looks like a smoke trail zig zags across the sky and impacts the earth...before the main meteorite arrives.

    Last edited by Referee; 24th February 2013 at 09:13.
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    Default Re: The Russian Chelyabinsk Meteor of Feb 2013

    Very reassuring scientists: That meteorite has 80 millions cousins... circling in the asteroid belt:


    Astronomers Calculate Russian Meteorite's Orbit, Find It Has 80 Million Cousins


    The Chelyabinsk meteorite came from a well-known family of Earth-crossing space rocks known as the Apollo asteroids.
    By Rebecca Boyle
    Posted 02.26.2013 at 5:02 pm


    Asteroid Orbits Both the asteroid 2012DA14 and the Chelyabinsk meteorite came from the asteroid belt, but from different orbits. Earth's orbit is shown in green. NASA

    Thanks to dozens of video reports, scientists are getting a pretty good handle on the life history of the massive meteorite that exploded above Russia earlier this month. They know it is rocky and a common type, and now they know where it probably came from. Scientists are scrambling to publish papers describing its origins in the middle of the solar system.

    The asteroid chip that became the recent meteorite came from a spot in the asteroid belt near Jupiter, about 2.5 times further from the sun than Earth is, according to NASA.

    At the University of Antioquia in Colombia, astronomers Jorge I. Zuluaga and Ignacio Ferrin produced a preliminary reconstruction of its orbit around the sun. It came from a well-known group of asteroids that frequently cross paths with Earth, known as the Apollo asteroids. Astronomers have seen about 240 that are larger than a kilometer in diameter, but speculate that about 2,000 similarly sized space rocks exist. As for rocks of Chelyabinsk size? There could be 80 million.

    The space rock’s trajectory can also be determined through infrasound, astronomers said. Infrasound ripples spread through the atmosphere as the meteorite exploded, and by examining their patterns, scientists can figure out which direction the meteor traveled and how much energy it unleashed. Elephants and homing pigeons can hear it, but all humans can do is turn to the infrasound stations monitored by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization.


    Related Articles


    Analysis: Russian Meteorite Was An Everyday Space Rock, Common Throughout The Solar System


    How Amateur Videos Will Help Astronomers Reconstruct Meteorite's Life History


    Shouldn't We Have Been Able To See This Huge Meteor Coming?


    “We would like to know not only where it came from, but how big it was, how coherent it was, where it stated breaking up, where its terminal impact was,” said Bill McKinnon, professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis.

    “People have studied the entry of these sort of meteors before, but they’re usually not quite so big. We haven’t had a chance to have such a good instrumented look at these things ... they don’t undergo terminal deceleration over a city of a million people.”

    Nobody could see it coming because it careened toward Earth from the same direction as the sun, so no telescopes could have detected it. But video cameras throughout Russia captured its entry, and Zuluanga and Ferrin use these to reconstruct the space rock’s orbit.

    They used trigonometry to determine its speed, height and position--it entered at a shallow 30-degree angle--and then they calculated its height, elevation and geolocation at its so-called “brightening point,” when it becomes bright enough to cast a shadow in the videos. They plugged this data into a model that computes the gravitational influence of the moon, Earth and other planets, and figured out it was an Apollo group asteroid.

    Their paper is posted to the physics arXiv preprint server, and McKinnon notes there are probably many more to come.


    Chelyabinsk Meteorite Orbit: Jorge I. Zuluaga and Ignacio Ferrin

    [via Technology Review, NASA]

    ***************************************

    From the above diagram I infer that the orbit shown for the meteorite (ChM) is the averaging of the maximum (dashed blue ellipse) and minimum (un-annoted, solid blue lined ellipse) trajectories of the computed error range.
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