Future Events - The Iran War

[Studeo]

Resolution Green-Lighting Israeli Strikes on Iran Introduced by House Republicans

Republicans in the House of Representatives have introduced a measure that would green-light an Israeli bombing campaign against Iran. The resolution, H.Res. 1553 (in full below), provides explicit support for military strikes against Iran, stating that Congress supports Israel's use of "all means necessary" against Iran "including the use of military force".

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jamal-..._b_657608.html

[bashi]

There is a growing fear that Israel might decide to attack Iran this very month. Several articles seem to lead to that conclusion.

I do not think that under the present circumstances Israel will carry out an attack this month.
There are several reasons for it:

1. The newly scheduled talks about the enriched uranium. Without officially “failed”
talks, Israel will lack support from the US

2. The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) from 2007, which states that Iran had
stopped working on WMDs since 2003.

3. The sanctions against Iran are too fresh to had any significant impact on the country.

4. The 4 newly acquired S300 missiles, which Iran managed to get. This is the key
obstacle, because this powerful weapons-system means Iran can put up virtual “Nofly”
zones with a radius of 90 km around sensitive sites. A sure sacrifice of 4 Israeli
bombers during an attack will not be survivable politically for any Israeli leader. Its
also highly unlikely that the US will send in their stealth bombers first to destroy the
S300 sites.


If I would be an Isreali leader, who is hell-bent to attack Iran, I would now do the following:

1. I would use any means to make sure that these talks are being sabotaged.
2. I would wait until the “tweaked” of NIE is ready and published, in which an attack
on Iran seems to be the logical conclusion to get rid of the problems/mullahs.
3. I would wait 5-6 months until the sanctions have delivered enough grinding effect
on Iran`s infrastructure.
4. I would wait until i get my own stealth bombers. WHAT? - you might ask.
Yes, Israel will take delivery of 25 US-built stealth aircrafts THIS YEAR, ahead of all other countries. See official delivery schedule, without Israel:

But here it comes:
link: http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Isra..._F-35_999.html

Then, after playing the disgruntled dove of peace for months and all things in place again, I will strike in

NOVEMBER THIS YEAR.

That’s the most likely road map to WWIII.

[magnusthor]

A lot seems to point to WWIII beginning this November. May I ask you which indicators you have come across which point to this specific month as the beginning point?

[bashi]

Magnusthor, you have style.
Instead of lambasting me for using the old and outdated story of the F-35 deal, you keep asking.
The question here is: How did he come across the period of November, while using invalid data?
Which tells me that you too have strong pointers.
What about sharing something here which has not been posted yet? But please: No web bot stuff.

Deal?

[Studeo]

Fidel Castro Goes Live With Warning of Nuclear Holocaust

Former Cuban President Fidel Castro warned today of imminent nuclear war and said the world's fate was in President Barack Obama's hands, as he addressed the Cuban National Assembly for the first time since taking ill four years ago.

Castro said the most recent U.N. sanctions on Iran will trigger a nuclear holocaust if the United States inspects the country's ships come September, as called for in the June resolution.

Only world pressure on Obama can avert the conflagration that will bring all major economies to a standstill, he said.

"In this critical situation President Barack Obama is the one who will have to give the order for this so-often announced and proclaimed attack," Castro said, calling on world leaders to weigh in with the U.S. president before it's too late....

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ry?id=11350666

[Rocky_Shorz]

I wonder what the US plans to do with the troops being pulled out of Iraq this month?

Iran: Leaking information harmful to regime is considered treason, Majlis deputy warns

NCRI - A member of the Iranian regime’s Majlis (Parliament) has warned that providing the regime’s “enemies” with information showing signs of the regime’s weakness would be considered treason.

According to the state-run Abrar daily on Sunday, Hamid-Reza Taraqi, one of the members of the Mo’atalefeh faction, told reporters in response to questions about imprisoned journalists, “It is unfortunate that reporters like you keep ignoring the misdeeds committed by the imprisoned journalists.”

He added, “Those journalists who are incarcerated today transferred information about the regime to outsiders.”

“Passing on intelligence that shows weaknesses of the establishment to the enemy is treason against the country, and journalists who leak secrets and information to outsiders are traitors,” Taraqi added.

story link

[bashi]

This is a very informative - 6 pages long - article:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/...return/8186/1/


Excerpt:

But, based on my conversations with Israeli decision-makers, this period of forbearance, in which Netanyahu waits to see if the West’s nonmilitary methods can stop Iran, will come to an end this December. Robert Gates, the American defense secretary, said in June at a meeting of NATO defense ministers that most intelligence estimates predict that Iran is one to three years away from building a nuclear weapon. “In Israel, we heard this as nine months from June—in other words, March of 2011,” one Israeli policy maker told me. “If we assume that nothing changes in these estimates, this means that we will have to begin thinking about our next step beginning at the turn of the year.”


I wonder whether the installation of a second cascade at Natanz has shortened the estimated period...

.

[bashi]

Some new developments:

Russian S-300s in Abkhazia will block a possible Israeli air route to Iran

http://www.debka.com/article/8968/

[bashi]

No comment:

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf-ddaot1gU

[bashi]

Russia will start to fuel the iranian Bushehr nuclear power station on August 21. That means a HUGE collateral damage will be generated in case of a bombing raid by Israel after the 21 st August.

http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs....39888/1011/rss

At the same time Russia blocks a possible corridor for israeli war-planes:

http://www.debka.com/article/8968/

Its a tense time....

[bashi]

After quoting Goldstein, here now the other side:

"Goldberg alludes only vaguely to the possibility that the threat of an attack on Iran is a strategy designed to manipulate both Iran and the United States. In a March 2009 article in The Atlantic online, however, he was more straightforward, conceding that the Netanyahu threat to strike Iran if the United States failed to stop the Iranian nuclear programme could be a "tremendous bluff". "

source: http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52482

[bashi]

Maybe thats a poker-move:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...+World+News%29

But if not, then i will be very pessimistic about the future ...

[Bomack]

Israel Has Until Week's End to Strike Iran Nuclear Facility, Bolton Says

Israel has until the weekend to launch a military strike on Iran's first nuclear plant before the humanitarian risk of an attack becomes too great, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said Tuesday.

A Russian company is expected to help Iran start loading nuclear fuel into its plant on Saturday, after which an attack on the Bushehr reactor could trigger harmful radiation, which Israel wants to avoid, Bolton said. So unless the Israelis act immediately to shut down the facility, it will be too late.

"Once it's close to the reactor ... the risk is when the reactor is attacked, there will be a release of radiation into the air," Bolton told FoxNews.com. "It's most unlikely that they would act militarily after fuel rods are loaded."

Earlier Tuesday, Bolton told Fox Business Network the Israelis will have to move in the "next eight days" if they want to attack the Bushehr facility -- a reference to the window between when the start-up was announced last week and the loading date. Bolton said Tuesday that the date has fluctuated, but he described the start-up as the ultimate deadline.

Michael Oren, Israel's ambassador to the United States, told Fox News that the nation is hopeful sanctions -- passed by the United Nations, European Union and United States -- will "modify" Iran's behavior. Oren said Israel is "committed" to the sanctions program and will assess its impact at a later date.

"Until that time, the position of the government of Israel -- as the position of the Obama administration -- is that all options will remain on the table," he said, without commenting directly on Bolton's remarks.

Though Iranian officials insist the reactor is for peaceful purposes, Bolton warned about the danger of the up-and-running reactor.

"What this does is give Iran a second route to nuclear weapons in addition to enriched uranium," Bolton said. "It's a very, very huge victory for Iran."

Bolton, who was U.S. ambassador during the Bush administration, expressed doubt that Israel was planning a military strike but suggested it's an open question.

"If they were going to do anything, they certainly wouldn't be talking about it," he said.

He noted that the reactor gives Iran something that both Iraq and Syria were never able to achieve because their facilities were destroyed.

"Iran will have achieved something that no other opponent of Israel, no other enemy of the United States really in the Middle East has, and that is a functioning nuclear reactor," he said on Fox Business Network.

Iranian officials on Tuesday warned Israel not to take military action. Iranian media quoted Ahmad Vahidi, Iran's defense minister, as saying Israel would be taking a huge risk with such an attack.

"We may lose a power plant, but the whole existence of the Zionist regime will be jeopardized," Vahidi was quoted as saying.

The reactor project has been in existence for decades, but the Russians have helped push it to the finish line. Russian state firm Rosatom announced last week that the Bushehr facility would be starting up on Aug. 21. According to the Iranian state Mehr news agency, the head of that company, Sergey Novikov, says the plant "just generates electricity."

Related Video:
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4313396/i...ylist_id=86857

Source: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010...y-bolton-says/

[PathWalker]

Dear reader,
If you fall into fear, you are under TPTB control. No matter if the WW3 starts or not.
Take care when assimilating the fear mongering information. Is it for you (personally) to take action?
Maybe TPTB spread the ideam and seed the perception in the public, in order to materialize it. It is known that all reality is generated from perception.

[Kristoffer]

whos affraid? i dont know if anyone fears them still. Its some old geezers that think they are all "that" but they as we are all bound to death and its comming for them as it comes for us one day. Tbh i have reached a point where it really dosent matter. Do they really think im dying cause my body dies. The only people who fear death is the once who fear life. I am therefore i will always be, nothing can stop me, you or anybody for being everything cause we are all the same thought. Ive known this all my life, im not here to educate people or come up with answers, im just a man sitting on the bus of life, looking at it as it passes by the windows. Im here cause i needed to be here, we all heard the call, we all took the chanse to experience this. What tptb does regarding staring wars, they are just stagepeople in our lives. Look at life as you look on a theatre. When the show ends, next one starts.

[Studeo]

There's no way for the U.S. to win a non-nuclear war with Iran

When Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and
the highest-ranking American officer, was asked recently on NBC’s Meet
The Press whether the United States has a military plan for an attack
on Iran, he replied simply: “We do.”

General staffs are supposed to plan for even the most unlikely future
contingencies. Right down to the 1930s, for example, the United States
maintained and annually updated plans for the invasion of Canada—and
the Canadian military made plans to preempt the invasion. But what the
planning process will have revealed, in this case, is that there is no
way for the United States to win a non-nuclear war with Iran.

The U.S. could “win” by dropping hundreds of nuclear weapons on Iran’s
military bases, nuclear facilities and industrial centres (i.e.
cities) and killing five to 10 million people, but short of that,
nothing works. On this we have the word of Richard Clarke,
counter-terrorism adviser in the White House under three
administrations.

In the early 1990s, Clarke revealed in an interview with the New York
Times four years ago, the Clinton administration had seriously
considered a bombing campaign against Iran, but the military
professionals told them not to do it.

“After a long debate, the highest levels of the military could not
forecast a way in which things would end favourably for the United
States,” he said. The Pentagon’s planners have war-gamed an attack on
Iran several times in the past 15 years, and they just can’t make it
come out as a U.S. victory.

It’s not the fear of Iranian nuclear weapons that makes the U.S. Joint
Chiefs of Staff so reluctant to get involved in a war with Iran. Those
weapons don't exist, and the whole justification for the war would be
to make sure that they never do.

The problem is that there’s nothing the U.S. can do to Iran, short of
nuking the place, that would really force Tehran to kneel and beg for
mercy. It can bomb Iran’s nuclear sites and military installations to
its heart’s content, but everything it destroys can be rebuilt in a
few years. And there is no way that the United States could actually
invade Iran.

There are some 80 million people in Iran, and although many of them
don’t like the present regime they are almost all fervent patriots who
would resist a foreign invasion. Iran is a mountainous country, and
very big: four times the size of Iraq. The Iranian army currently
numbers about 450,000 men, slightly smaller than the U.S. Army—but
unlike the U.S. Army, it does not have its troops scattered across
literally dozens of countries.

If the White House were to propose anything larger than minor military
incursions along Iran’s south coast, senior American generals would
resign in protest. Without the option of a land war, the only lever
the United States would have on Iranian policy is the threat of yet
more bombs—but if they aren’t nuclear, then they aren’t very
persuasive. Whereas Iran would have lots of options for bringing
pressure on the United States.

Just stopping Iran’s own oil exports would drive the oil price
sky-high in a tight market: Iran accounts for around seven percent of
internationally traded oil. But it could also block another 40 percent
of global oil exports just by sinking tankers coming from Iraq, Saudi
Arabia, and the other Arab Gulf states with its lethal Noor anti-ship
missiles.

The Noor anti-ship missile is a locally built version of the Chinese
YJ-82. It has a 200-km range, enough to cover all the major choke
points in the Gulf. It flies at twice the speed of sound just metres
above the sea’s surface, and it has a tiny radar profile. Its
single-shot kill probability has been put as high as 98 percent.

Iran’s mountainous coastline extends along the whole northern side of
the Gulf, and these missiles have easily concealed mobile launchers.
They would sink tankers with ease, and in a few days insurance rates
for tankers planning to enter the Gulf would become prohibitive,
effectively shutting down the region’s oil exports completely.

Meanwhile Iran would start supplying modern surface-to-air missiles to
the Taliban in Afghanistan, and that would soon shut down the U.S.
military effort there. (It was the arrival of U.S.-supplied Stinger
missiles in Afghanistan in the late 1980s that drove Russian
helicopters from the sky and ultimately doomed the whole Soviet
intervention there.)

Iranian ballistic missiles would strike U.S. bases on the southern
(Arab) side of the Gulf, and Iran’s Hezbollah allies in Beirut would
start dropping missiles on Israel. The United States would have no
options for escalation other than the nuclear one, and pressure on it
to stop the war would mount by the day as the world’s industries and
transport ground to a halt.

The end would be an embarrassing retreat by the United States, and the
definitive establishment of Iran as the dominant power of the Gulf
region. That was the outcome of every wargame the Pentagon played, and
Mike Mullen knows it. So there is a plan for an attack on Iran, but he
would probably rather resign than put it into action. It is all bluff.
It always was.

http://www.straight.com/article-3369...clear-war-iran
By Gwynne Dyer, August 3, 2010

[Studeo]

IRAN: Building a Nuclear Weapon? You're Kidding, Right?

August 21, 2010 posted by Bob Nichols ·

(San Francisco) Many people are asking if Iran can build a nuclear weapon. The answer is No, they cannot. Iran does not have the tools or material to do so. Some 40 countries would probably like to build a reactor, though, according to the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency. A reactor is the first step to a nuclear weapon.
Mushroom Cloud

An image always associated with a nuke weapon.

But, the President of the US, politicians in Israel and other important people say Iran "might" be able to build a weapon in a few years. So what? I might like to jump over the moon too; but, it ain't gonna happen.

Same thing with Iran building a nuclear weapon. Iran does not have the tools to do so. Iran cannot get them or even make the tools required. Iran cannot even buy the tools. Try calling up Japan Steel and ordering a few tons of Marange Speciality Steel and see what happens.

Talk is cheap; building nuclear weapons is not. Building nuke weapons is a very expensive, dirty, nasty business. Lots of people talk glibly about building nuclear weapons and have not a clue what they are talking about; only a few people can actually do it. Freelancers, independents and "terrorists" don't have a chance of doing so. No, building nuclear weapons is an exclusively state run business.

Here, in a brief Flash video by nuclear reactor expert `Ace' Hoffman, is how nuclear weapons changed the face of America.

In fact, building nuclear weapons is the kind of big industrial enterprise that can be detected from satellites in outer space. The US has plenty of spy satellites; at least one is "parked" over Iran right now. And, making "small" nuclear weapons is even harder than building 10,000 lb, (4,545 kilogram) Atomic Bombs!

That being said, two world wide "nuclear capable corporations" as Ann Garrison, my colleague and a noted writer at the San Francisco Bay View calls them, are Bechtel and Halliburton. There actually is a Mr Bechtel, he lives in San Francisco, just down a bit from his old friend "Nuclear Nancy" Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives. Hmm, San Francisco is quite a small town, actually.

Anyway, Bechtel Corp runs the privatized US nuclear weapons program and Halliburton runs the equally privatized British nuclear weapons program at the quaintly named AWE, or Atomic Weapons Establishment at Aldermaston, England. There is certainly a lot of money to be made from nuclear weapons and the hand maiden to nuke weapons – nuke power plants.

True, the only thing nuke power plants actually produce is 1400 plus very radioactive isotopes and they all leak, all the time. One of those is Plutonium 239 or Pu 239 for short. It is entirely made by humans and did not really exist before its tryout detonation at Alamogordo, New Mexico and its Prime Time Debut detonation at Nagasaki, Japan in 1945. Pu 239 makes a thermonuclear bomb, the big ones with no theoretical upper limit on size. It is the man made metal bomb makers crave.
This is your lung on radiation.

Lung Tissue and Radiation

Sometime in September, Iran's big nuclear reactor starts up and begins making Pu 239 by the ton. Russia, Iran's patron, promises the Nuclear States and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to bring all the old 50 Ton, plus new isotope growth, highly radioactive reactor cores back to Mother Russia's Control rather than let Iran keep the bomb making Plutonium 239 even for one second. We all shall see.

That is the bare fact situation as of right now in August 2010. What happens next all depends on who has control of the Pu 239 from Iran's big reactor. US and Israeli spy satellites and ground assets will be trying to "catch" Iran stealing the old reactor core with its load of tons of Pu 239 to use for a thermonuclear weapon.

Everything else is just CIA front group fluff, fake media distraction, professional hair-do news readers on TV, and NYTIMES misinformation.

What do You think is going to happen next?
Keys to the Kingdom

Now, most importantly, stay Focused. Don't go off half cocked and start wildly firing. In two to 3 years we have a lethal, highly radioactive 50 Ton Plus old reactor core, that will kill exposed humans in 10 seconds, coming out of the cooker in Iran.

The hot reactor core will also catch fire if exposed to air and cremate your quite dead, radioactive body if you let it. What'cha gonna do? Explain your steps. Don't hold back.

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2010/08...kidding-right/

[Studeo]

Iran unveils first bomber drone

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (right) pulled away a sheet to reveal the "Karrar" drone
Iran has unveiled what it says is its first domestically built unmanned - or drone - bomber.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the plane could serve as a "messenger of death", but that its key message was one of friendship.

Iranian state TV later showed the "Karrar" aircraft in flight.

It said it had a range of 1,000km (620 miles) and could carry two 250-pound (115kg) bombs, or a precision bomb of 500 pounds.

The plane is the latest in a series of new pieces of military hardware unveiled by Iran.

"This jet is a messenger of honour and human generosity and a saviour of mankind, before being a messenger of death for enemies of mankind," President Ahmadinejad said after unveiling the Karrar at a ceremony with defence officials.

"The key message is friendship," he added. "We must make efforts to render all the enemy's weapons useless with our defence potential."

The unveiling came amid continuing concerns over Iran's nuclear programme.

Western states suspect Iran is trying to obtain a nuclear bomb, though Iran says its programme is designed to boost domestic power supplies.

On Saturday, Iran began loading fuel rods at the Bushehr nuclear power station built and operated by Russia.

The US said it saw no "proliferation risk" from the plant, though Israel condemned the move.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11052023

[Studeo]

Fidel Castro warns of war

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez met for five hours with Fidel Castro behind closed doors, and state television said they discussed the former Cuban leader's warnings about impending nuclear war.

Castro has been using his written opinion columns to warn for months that the US and Israel will launch a nuclear attack on Iran and that Washington could also target North Korea - predicting Armageddon-like devastation and fighting.

The state TV broadcast Wednesday night also said Chavez expressed satisfaction at Castro's "magnificent" health.

Venezuela's socialist leader later met with President Raul Castro before leaving Cuba.

There was no immediate video or photos of either encounter.

Chavez is a close ally of Fidel Castro and visited him frequently during the four years he disappeared from public view following emergency intestinal surgery in July 2006.

Wednesday was the first time, however, that Chavez had visited since Castro began making a string of public appearances in recent weeks.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/america...o-warns-of-war

[Rocky_Shorz]

Iran: Sunni homes attacked by Iranian regime forces in northwestern city

NCRI - The Iranian regime’s suppressive forces have attacked a number of Sunni residences and followers of the Allameh Moftizadeh order in Seqez. So far 10 people have been arrested.

According to Harana news agency, on August 19 and 20, the regime’s Special Guards, intelligence operatives, State Security Forces (SSF) and plainclothes agents attacked people attending a special Sunni religious ceremony for Ramadan at homes belonging to followers of Ahmad Moftizadeh (a Quran school). People were beaten with batons and six were taken to undisclosed locations.

At 14:00 local time on Thursday, August 19, intelligence agents raided people’s houses and confiscated their belongings such as CDs, books, papers, pictures, home and car ownership documents, identification cards and birth certificates.

On August 21, intelligence and security agents once again raided the houses of detainees and arrested four more individuals, taking them to unknown locations.

During a third raid which lasted from 17:00 to 23:00 local time on the same day, at least 1,000 suppressive agents, including special guards, plainclothes agents, and anti-riot female units, laid a siege on residential areas, indiscriminately breaking home windows and doors to instill fear in the community.

On August 26, regime’s forces prevented the holding of religious ceremonies once again from 17:00 to 20:30 local time, according to reports.

Some of the people arrested on Thursday, August 19, were: 1. Naser Zamanian, a bank employee; 2. Mohammad Jamal Habaki, a high school chemistry teacher in Seqez; 3. Salar Tofiqpour; 4. Mokhtar Mohammadi; 5. Aboubakr Eshqi; and 6. Jamal Moradi.

Some of the people arrested on Saturday, August 21, were: 1. Ali Esmaili, retired; 2. Mohammad Taher Soltani Ardalan; 3. Mostafa Mohammadi, retired; 4. Hamed Jalali, a high school chemistry teacher in Seqez.

Previously in 2007, during the month of Ramadan, more than 600 followers of the Allameh Moftizadeh school were detained in various parts of Kurdistan province simply because they were Sunnis. They were also not allowed to hold any religious ceremonies.
Story Link

wasn't Saddam's mistake attacking the Kurds?

CAIRO (AFP) — Egypt said Thursday it has postponed a visit to Cairo by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki over comments criticising the role of some Arab leaders in facilitating Middle East peace talks.

The head of the Iranian interests section in Cairo was summoned to explain comments attributed to Mottaki in which he criticised "the participation of certain Arab leaders in the relaunch of direct peace talks between the Palestinians and Israelis in Washington," the foreign ministry said.

The ministry informed the Iranian diplomat that "due to this development" the meeting in Cairo on Monday of the Non-Aligned Movement "troika" -- Iran, Egypt and Cuba -- has been postponed, the ministry said.

It was not immediately clear to which remarks of the Iranian foreign minister the Egyptian ministry was referring.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and King Abdullah II of Jordan support the restart of direct peace talks between the two parties, and both of them are in Washington to participate in that...

talks

a storm is heading their way... time to talk fast...

and this time, get something done...