Ecuador - orange alert issued in areas of influence of Tungurahua volcano

[Bob]

And an eruption in the early morning hours (0409am) for about 10 minutes - it was preceded by a strong pulse at 2222 PM last evening.

There is some very slight slow wave (magma movement), but no apparent rock breakage signatures appearing.

[Bob]

Another eruption event at Tungurahua today in the morning:

prior to the eruption were spikey rock breaking signatures.

[Bob]

Tungurahua this evening let off a large brief 1 minute blast, but did not continue with a full fledged eruption (ATM)..

It is clearly active again, but the potential upcoming events are not yet fully obvious.

[Bob]

Early in the morning about 45 minutes of an eruption happened at the volcano. There was no warning, such as slow-wave, or strong pulse or double-pulse like events prior. Afterwards there was about 15 minutes of strong rock breakage spikes showing up. That diminished to calm when suddenly there were two very large impulses about 0700 and 0701. Worth keeping an eye on this morning.

==update==

eruptive activity was noted briefly at about 1120 local time and about 2 pm local time.

[Bob]

Tungurahua is continuing to rumble through the night -

[Bob]

It appears that Tungurahua has woken up again and is in an eruption cycle. If it increases or decreases we shall see. During the late night, a 6 minute low level sustained event about 2313 local time was followed by the signature "double pulse" events that Tungurahua has been noted to present. Keeping an eye on things.

[Bob]

Notice from the Geophysical Institute, Ecuador - re: Tungurahua's awakening

Interpretation

Volcanic rise of land (inflationary trend), indicating magmatic activity below.

In the last 8 years of activity Tungurahua volcano has had 15 similar quiet periods to the current period with low seismic activity, deformation inflationary trend, and surface activity characterized by low energy fumaroles.

Mostly these quiet periods were followed by small eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index IEV 0-1 with principal phenomenon ash falls) and sometimes by larger eruptions (IEV 2 pyroclastic flows). It is important to note that the vast majority (80%) of these eruptions had no premonitory signs of recovery in the short term (hours to days).

The actual deformation of the volcano is evidence of magmatic intrusion (movement of magma from a deeper reservoir) has been observed on many occasions before the eruptions of Tungurahua.

The low outgassing could indicate a blockage of the duct that prevents the free passage of magmatic gases. Given that the current quiet period had exceeded six months (185 days) and the sharp increase in seismic activity (LP since 12/09, from 16/09 tremor, and the swarm of LP 18/09) is It estimates that a (large eruption) in the short term (next few days to weeks) is possible.


Eruptive scenarios
Based on the results obtained from volcanic monitoring and the recent history of reactivations of Tungurahua two eruptive scenarios that could occur in the short term (next few days to weeks) is proposed:

1) Reactivation fast. During this stage of Vulcan style at the beginning of the eruptive phase or after a few days, it could produce a rapid opening of the duct with moderate explosions at large (eg. In May 2010, July 2013, April 2014). This scenario could be a large eruption column (up to 10 km above the crater) and pyroclastic flows that could descend the gorges to reach the foot of the volcano.

The falls of ash and rubble associated with this type of high eruptive column are more likely to affect areas farther from the volcano with more variable directions due to the variability of the wind direction at this point. Ballistic missiles (blocks and volcanic bombs) associated with explosions could reach a distance of 5 km from the crater.

In this scenario small lava flows could decline by the Northwest flank with a range of less than 4 km. side lahars could be generated due to the remobilization of eruptive material by rain and could cut the road Baños-Penipe. Depending on the amount of material accumulated in the streams and the intensity / duration of rain these lahars could be small to moderate.

This is the most likely scenario eruptive due to the absence of emissions of gas, which would indicate a closed conduit.

2) gradual reactivation. During this stage Strombolian style, which can last from several weeks to a few months, we could see small to moderate explosions, lava fountains and continue columns of ash less than 6 km above the crater (eg. April-May 2011 , March 2013, April 2015).

The main phenomenon is the ash falls, moderate to strong, which primarily affect the west of the volcano (unless a change in wind direction is observed).

Ballistic missiles (blocks and volcanic bombs) and small pyroclastic flows could reach a distance of 2.5 km from the crater. Small secondary lahars could be due to the remobilization of eruptive material by rain and could block the road Baños-Penipe.

It is important to note that volcanic eruptions are of an unpredictable nature and the activity of the volcano can also return to normal without eruption.

These settings can be changed according to changes in the activity of the volcano and analysis of data from the instrumental and visual monitoring. The IGEPN maintains constant vigilance in the center Terras (Quito) and Tungurahua Volcano Observatory.

[Bob]

Continue to watch the seismograph recorder throughout the night - events are continuing

[Bob]

The double pulses are still present, plus very small rock breakage patterns - in Post #227 above, the Geophysical Institute was warning of a potential for "rapid" relief of the magma with an explosive release (scenario 1) as being likely, with no strong warnings showing up on the seismiographic recorders. What is being noted is the double pulse pattern, explosive "releases" (not too large currently), and numerous very low level rock fractures. That could very well indicate that there is a "frozen plug" in place in the magmatic plumbing system. It could be assumed if there is a strong regional seismic quake, that the impulse may shake enough of the plumbing system to allow for a pressure relief to happen (eruption).

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Bob (here)

That could very well indicate that there is a "frozen plug" in place in the magmatic plumbing system. It could be assumed if there is a strong regional seismic quake, that the impulse may shake enough of the plumbing system to allow for a pressure relief to happen (eruption).

Yes -- this is being discussed in the media in Ecuador. In lay terms, like shaking a champagne bottle and then having the cork fly out under pressure.

[Bob]

TWO Large events today

also just in, USGS is saying San Andreas in California is showing a LOT of increased activity and to be alert for a possible quake(s) this weekend..
POSTED ON SEPTEMBER 30, 2016 BY TEMBLOR - California Issues One-week Earthquake Advisory for San Andreas Fault 293 earthquake swarms on the San Andreas..

[Bob]

long period seismic activity on the volcano today just before 1500 local -

continued low level activity is present after the main event

[Bob]

Just when it was seeming activity at Tungurahua had dropped with a redirection of magma to CotoPaxi, this morning the volcano lit off a brief eruption which appears to be ash related -

Such started about 0702 am local with a brief very innocuous pulse (definitely not an indication of impending eruption), then about 0752 a couple stronger and strong rock breakage signatures, and then the eruption event started - and continued for about 2 hours.

[Bob]

Swarm activity is showing up today with Tungurahua. The seismic network has been down in Ecuador for the last 4 days, preventing viewing of geological activity with the volcano. This particular group of swarm activity appears to be due to rock breakage with magmatic heating from below (seeing slight slow wave magma movement patterns in between the pulses now and then).

[Bob]

Swarm activity continues with a strong momentary burst at 0944 am local time on Tungurahua.

[Bob]

After days of activity of lull and small swarms, rock breakage signatures and pulse type of events, Tungurahua increased its activity about 0600 am local time today, to exhibit a period of eruption.

After the emission, output diminished to small rock burst swarms. Keeping an eye on this.

[Bob]

Today later this afternoon, a brief period of eruptive activity happened. The geological institute has been waiting for a larger set of eruptions, which have not happened, yet.

swams of rock fracture events have also been happening at the CotoPaxi volcano, although no large eruption has happened there recently. During the period of increased activity warning(s) from the geological institute, where Tungurahua was being watched, activity at CotoPaxi picked up.. There is an increase in solar particle activity from a brief CME and solar particle storm from an earthfacing coronal hole starting to move more squarely aligned with earth. Historically solar activity has been synonymous with increases in volcanic and earthquake activity. http://spaceweather.com/

Oct. 25-26 Earth enters a stream of high-speed solar wind flowing from a coronal hole on the sun. Analysts say storm levels could reach category G2,

[Bob]

At 0927 am local time, there was a small seismic event as recorded on the seismographic recorders on Tungurahua and CotoPaxi (weakly) - however it possibly started to trigger more of a magmatic movement with Tungurahua.. at 1037 am local time a larger localized seismic event lasting about 3 minutes occurred. Gradually increasing in amplitude rock breakage signature spike are starting to appear but haven't yet reached swarm level activity. Keeping an eye on this.

Solar storm activity is getting stronger, at a Kp level of 7, and a G3 level geomagnetic storm is present. (see solar activity subforum, Geometry in Coronal Holes).

==update==

1633 pm local time, a burst of seismic activity, localized to the volcano..

[Bob]

More bursts of long duration seismic activity -

About a 6 minutes duration seismic event about 0910 and another shorter event at 1035 am local time. NOAA (space satellite monitoring) reports the G2/G3 solar storm is continuing for another day. It would seem longer as the massive coronal holes are moving even more earth facing and continuing to stream particles into earth's geomagnetic field. (High Current Fields at altitude (magnetosphere) modulating with fluctuating high currents reflect their signals also within the earth, thereby contributing to energy dissipation along faults and facilitating magma movement.)

[Bob]

major outage on the geophysical institute seismic server.. switching to a different one..

26th

27th

fractures are being indicated, plus larger seismic activity events, and classic Tungurahua's double pulse signature