Ecuador - orange alert issued in areas of influence of Tungurahua volcano

[Bob]

Tungurahua 17 March 14 - seismic activity report

An event happened shortly after midnight and then about 20 minutes later.

[Bob]

Tungurahua - 20 March 2014 - seismic activity report for the Volcano - the network was off-line since the 17th and resumed recording information for presentation today about 1100 AM

Some explosive activity started shortly after 1600 local time.

There are about 9 sunspots relatively earth facing, some are potential M class flare producers.

There are no coronal holes earth facing at this time.

Solar activity is CALM:

Geomagnetic storm activity - NONE

Prediction for storms -

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet

Geomagnetic activity, MID latitudes - 24-48 hour prediction, 5% chance
High latitudes - 24-48 hour prediction, 15% chance

Auroral activity NIL - only over the extremely north geophysical pole is showing slight activity

Overall Environmental Plot - STABLE, NO EVENTS

[Bob]

Tungurahua - 21 March 2014 - seismic activity report for the Volcano

0826 am local time was heralded with a spurt of activity from the volcano.

There are no earth facing coronal holes from the sun ejecting particle streams at this time.

Particle environment from the solar flux is normal (stable no events indicated)

[Bob]

The Tunguhura volcano - Ecuador seismic and volcanic activity - tracking with CotoPaxi during the previous nite and this morning - 22 March 14 (see the CotoPaxi thread today's report for comparison graphics)

Solar image, there are no large coronal holes earth facing.

The current particle stream activity from the sun slightly increased and is being absorbed by the earth. No major events have happened from any solar cme's last nite or today.

[Bob]

Tungurahua - seismic volcanic activity graphics - 23 March 2014 - STABLE, no major sustained events were noted (one blip about 1920 last nite) - today at about 1320 pm, the event registered and shown on the graphic tracked the CotoPaxi event 56 miles northwards - this tracking of both events, 1920 on the 22nd and the one at 1320 the 23 means there is a connection of the volcanic "magma river feed" tying these volcanoes together into a potential "super-volcano" system.

Earth particle bombardment, higher than in previous days, but more stable:

There are no earth facing coronal holes.

There was a C class flare (small) which was NOT pointed to the earth from sunspot AR2014, which lasted for a few hours.

[Bob]

Tungurahua volcano - Ecuador, seismic and volcanic report 24 March 14

The volcano is very quiet today, with very slight tracking with the events up north on the CotoPaxi volcano. It appeared that Reventador's massive purging that started about 0330 am local and continued till about 0630 relieved a lot of the magmatic pressures.

The solar particle stream hitting the earth was elevated slightly but otherwise cycling smoothly.

There are no large solar coronal holes pointing earthward, and therefore are not streaming particles that could heat up the earth's plates, facilitating eruptions. Whatever is triggering the events is unknown at this time, unless it is a delayed oscillation from the previous peaks in the previous weeks. One can review the graphics on the seismo-heliographs and see the event timing.

Chilean volcanic and seismic activity is picking up, and we may start a thread on the Chilean volcanoes.

[Bob]

Tunguraha - volcano Ecuador - seismic and volcanic activity report - 25 March 14

The volcano is tracking events in close synchronism with the CotoPaxi volcano 54 miles to the north.

As seen on the map below, the volcanoes are placed as shown.

there was no sustained activity, apparently Reventador further north about 110 miles away has been acting like the pressure relief valve for the magmatic river below.

Solar particle heating was slightly reduced today:

and there were no active earth facing coronal holes which would have contributed to more particle emission from the sun to the earth.

the planetary magnetic fields were considered quiet and stable

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet

Auroral activity was NIL

[Bob]

Tungurahua - volcano Ecuador - seismic and volcanic activity - 26 March 14

The events at G. Pichincha at about 0830 tracked with Tungurahua. The event at 0730 for Tungurahua was tracking with the event on CotoPaxi. The CotoPaxi even was substantially larger indicating the origination was closer north than south.

Solar flux activity briefly peaked during the night then dropped - there was a "glancing blow" from the CME released a few days ago which was not directly earth facing.

There are no solar coronal holes earthfacing contributing to particle absorption

[Bob]

Tungurahua - volcano Ecuador - seismic and volcanic activity 27 Mar 14

last nite, the volcano exhibited some activity giving residents a few boomers to listen to. Then during the daylight hours for the most part the volcano was quiet.

Solar particle activity was slightly increasing with no large spikes

There was no large coronal hole facing the earth from the sun

[Synchronicity]

This is interesting to watch

[Bob]

Posted by Synchronicity (here)
This is interesting to watch

The cyclic activity, and the tracking of the magma flow between the over 110 mile long volcanic arc chain is fascinating.. It's so "alive" and how it interacts with the rest of the "ring of fire" and the continental plates, the regional plates, and the solar and geomagnetic activity. Determining the patterns present, and prior to, when the bigger eruptions will happen, and watching the relief valve (Reventador) is interesting (to see it discharge the potential catastrophic flows elsewhere in the arc chain).

I believe this eastern section of the ring of fire (southernmost s. America, northward, thru Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Pan America, Mexico, California, Oregon, Washington State, Vancouver, and up to Alaska) is very key to what happens within the surrounding regions. Ecuador gives us a great view from a well documented region of the Northern Andes.

[Bob]

Tungurahua - volcano Ecuador - seismic and volcanic activity graphs - 28 March 14

The volcano was quiet during the night, very quiet. During the morning there was a small "bump" and an event that tracked the one at CotoPaxi volcano 54 miles to the north at about 0906 am. The silence is ominous as it is out-of-character for the volcano. It is assumed that Reventador 110 miles to the North is acting as the "relief valve" of the magmatic pressures from this volcanic arc system in the Northern Andes. (see the Reventador thread for more information).

Solar activity:

There is a steadily increasing amount of particles being sent to the earth, but no large "spikey" events (high energy bursts that need to be absorbed and dealt with) at this time.

There are no strongly defined earth facing coronal holes. There are 6 sunspots actively earth-facing which contain high levels of magnetic fields.

Seismic:

[Bob]

Tungurahua - volcano Ecuador - seismic and volcanic activity - 29th March 2014

The volcano yesterday afternoon started to show some ground movement upwards and downwards about 3 cycles per minute about 1425 local for about an hour's time.

Throughout the evening there were a couple small events which were tracking the CotoPaxi volcano 54 miles north. About 1020 local there was a very small event. The volcano is otherwise QUIET.

Solar particle flux has been increasing regularly, briefly spiking yesterday during the window of opportunity for the LA earthquakes.

There are no large well defined coronal holes earth-facing

Sunspot AR2017 is crackling with M-class solar flares.

[Bob]

Tungurahua - volcano Ecuador - seismic and volcanic activity - 30 March 14

Summary of the seismic - STABLE, CALM - no activity of anything substantial

Solar/Earth particles

Solar Coronal Hole(s) - none earthfacing

The previous day's brief X-Ray flash from sunspot 2017 has had zero observable effects on any of the seismic or volcanoes of Ecuador during the time the flare occurred, or for any substantial time thereafter - the flare caused a brief interruption of low frequency radio communications (selective fading in the reflective layer of the ionosphere).

"
Top News of the Day:

2014-03-30 13:58 UTC R3 (Strong) Event from Region 2017 (Updated)

Region 2017 produced an impulsive or short-lived R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1748 UTC (1:48 p.m. EDT) on March 29th. There was a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event, but based on direction and speed, significant storming is NOT expected. There are several CMEs being modeled at this time (the one from this event and several others) and low-level geomagnetic storming is expected in the April 1st – 2nd timeframe as a result. That forecast will be refined as analysis continues." ref: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ - we should watch for any significant change in the seismic or volcanic eruptive patterns on the 1st - 2nd April 14 to see if any CME activity changes any output levels.

(particle speed diagram and polarity)

[Bob]

Tungurahua - volcano Ecuador - seismic and volcanic activity - 31 March 14

A substantial "pulse" event happened last nite about 0100 am.

The two small events (prior to 2000 last nite, and prior to 0800 tracked exactly with the CotoPaxi volcano 54 miles to the north - indicating a tied in magmatic/seismic system exists - in essence, the potential for a massive volcanic chain could erupt over hundreds of miles should a "supervolcano" event happen. There is no understanding exactly HOW such a thing could happen, so we cannot predict, and are looking for patterns of "simultaneous events" happening at distant volcanoes in the arc-chain.

NOTE - that has been no tracking or correlation to the Yellowstone Wyoming potential super-volcano as that volcano system is the result of a floating hot-spot, similar to the spot under Hawaii, and Iceland.. The South American volcanoes, up thru those in California, Oregon, Washington state, Vancouver Island, Alaska are all part of the eastern (Pacific's) Rim of Fire. This ring of fire monitoring provides useful data about events happening along the chain when the multiple plates discharge their energy into the "system". How that all happens is yet to be determined, and studying these events is important to find patterns and find triggers.

[Bob]

Gua Gua Pichincha - volcano Ecuador - Seismic and Volcanic Activity - 1 April 2014

There was a server outage until 2200 last nite, however after the connection was restored, it was noted that there was a small event about shortly before midnite, not a rock slide..and another small burp about 0630. Afterwards and into the morning between 0600 and 0900 there was a series of very small spiking happening, very brief short bursts, similar to the CotoPaxi volcano.

We are waiting on a potential CME reaching the earth from an event from Saturday (x-ray flare), which supposedly will glance, or hit starting about 11:30ish pm 1 April and continuing through the 2nd April.. If that happens, there may be increased activity, and we will note it one way or another..

The volcano is strangely very very silent.. generally when that happens when activity has been "high" either the volcano has emptied it's magma channels, or something has been plugged up. If plugged up the tilt-meters would show tilting when the cone and ground changes shape. The Geological Institute which provides these graphics is watching the tiltmeters and will report if there is substantial tilting on a report on their main page.

Solar particle flux on the Earth is dropping and no current spikes are present

There are no current earth facing coronal holes emitting particles to the earth

[Bob]

Tungurahua - volcano Ecuador - SEISMIC event recorded from Chilean Quake 1 April 14

Tungurahua is showing the aftershocks a bit cleaner than the CotoPaxi recorder. In the top image 1851.5 the quake from Chile hit Tungurahua's recording system and registered for about 6 minutes of shaking. At 1903 local there was another event (which could have been an aftershock from the Chilean quake), with subsequent 4 cycles per minute rocking of the volcano.

Solar Particle activity shows no peaks during the Chilean quake

[Bob]

Tungurahua - volcano Ecuador - seismic and volcanic activity 2 April 14

After yesterdays Chilean 8.2 quake, with the rocking and rolling, and changes in the magmatic flows, this volcano was quiet during the night and then some activity started during the morning hours. Shortly before 0800 local it looked like there was some small magmatic events followed by what could have been a 3 minute long sustained magmatic explosion.

The expected CME from Saturday's solar event still has not reached the earth, so we are watching to see if there will be any change in activity when the particles reach the earth.

There was a brief increase in solar X-ray flux from a NW sided solar flare from a sunspot which was not on the earth-sun axis (so no CME would reach the earth from that event)

There are no earth facing coronal holes and particle levels hitting the earth are NORMAL levels

[Bob]

Tungurahua - volcano Ecuador - Seismic and Volcanic activity - 3 April 14

The Geological Institute has been observing activity that is causing them to keep the ALERT LEVEL up for Tungurahua volcano. Their report will be at the bottom of this POST.

The magma channels have moved so different seismometers are indicating the activity change.. (see below)

The seismometers captured 4 sizable and long duration aftershocks.

At 2104 one can see the pre-quake event, the double bump fracturing before the big one appears at 2138 local time.

The total time lasted 26 minutes with 6-7 cycles per minute large ground sway oscillations starting at about 2200.

At 2320 the volcano lit off an explosion. And another small one about 0008 local time. There continued to be tracking with the Chilean aftershocks throughout the early morning hours, tracking CotoPaxi's seismometers.

Summary - the Chilean quake (and aftershocks) are taking their toll on the Ecuadorian volcano(s).. The magma flow, the activity patterns have changed to in some cases, cessation/stoppage, to in other cases, reactivation indicators are apparently showing up.

Report from the Geological Institute - http://www.igepn.edu.ec/

April 3, 2014

From the morning of Wednesday, April 2nd of this, there has been a slight increase in seismic and surface activity of the Tungurahua volcano.

This change in behavior is related to the registration of a large number of seismic events associated with the mobilization and pressurizing fluid into the volcano, with respect to the previous days. In addition, data from the monitoring system of deformation have identified that since March 20 a slight but steady inflation of the top of the volcano is recorded.

During the day yesterday, at 07:57 and 23:05 (local time), two small explosions considered were recorded. These events were accompanied by roaring and rolling incandescent blocks on the flanks of the volcano. Due to favorable weather conditions last night, it was observed that the explosion of 23:05 (local time) generated column emission of about 600 meters above the crater and incandescent blocks drop up to 600 meters under the same level. In the case of the explosion of 07:57 (local time), a fall of ash black color, same size and smaller than grains of sugar, in communities and Cotaló Chacauco reported.

According to the above, it can be concluded that registered during the April 2, explosions are the result of a new process of pressurization at the top of the cone and that is evidenced by the net deformation of the volcano.

Based on the behavior of the volcano eruption in previous episodes, it is possible that this activity will continue to increase in the coming days or is this a sudden change in a period of a few days to a few weeks.

[Bob]

Tungurahua - volcano Ecuador, volcanic and seismic activity - 4 April 14

The volcano seems to be coming more "alive" as shown in the graphics.

2100 pm started the window for activity last nite. Shortly before 0800 and shortly before 1100 am there were some significant outbursts. After 1430 local activity resumed with some larger longer sustained events about 10 minutes of activity was indicated.. Shortly before 1600 local, about 5 minutes of outburst resumed. The period in-between was punctuated by shorter bursts.