CotoPaxi Volcano - Ecuador seismic status

[Bob]

Brief increase in activity -

The volcanic tremor and breaking spike-like activity had been slightly increasing with some characteristic "double-pulse" as noted in Ecuador's eruptive volcanoes, when about 0530 local time, some larger events occurred, leading to about 20 minutes of strong seismic activity. Double pulse strong events were continuing into the later morning hours.

[Bob]

Current activity - NIL

Interesting, there are seismic "bumps", minor events and a few stronger ones now and then, but sustained activity has dropped substantially in the last day. As these events tend to be "cyclic", one should not consider that a movement towards "all clear".

The Volcanic Geophysical Institute who is monitoring, had decided to send a portable SO2 (Sulfur Dioxide) toxic gas monitor to see what changes in concentration are present downwind of the Volcano. They had reported due to previous ash-fall events, the sensors that are placed around the Volcano to monitor for such emissions, have been less responsive, and not necessarily producing the most accurate concentration readings of the toxic gas.

As the vehicle moved to different locations higher concentrations (shown in red for Parts Per Billion values were located in one particular area:

[Bob]

Brief eruptive activity pulses are currently happening in CotoPaxi.

Such was preceded by a couple 'bumps' and subsequent VT (volcanic tremor).

[Bob]

Shortly after midnite, a large explosion with a 3 minute seismic pulse activity rocked CotoPaxi volcano.

2-3 minute periods of volcanic tremor (VT) occurred for a few hours afterwards with signs of continual slow wave oscillation.

These would be signs of increased activity. The slow-wave oscillation was continuing into the daylight hours.

The Geophysical Institute night camera caught the eruptive activity:

[Bill Ryan]

.
Stealing Bob's thunder here for a moment (thank you for all these updates!), I heard this from a friend today:

A source close to [Ecuador's President] Correa told a friend of mine that there is 100% certainty of a very major, possibly catastrophic, eruption within the next few months.

That could of course be quite something. I live several hundred miles to the south, well out of harm's way, but it's certainly a topic I'm most interested to keep closely informed about.

[Bob]

Thanks for the observations Bill - since the 8.3 Chilean quake, the ring of fire on this side has been pulsating, with a slow wave. Possibly that contributes to a higher earthquake/volcanic activity cycle. Keeping an eye on these..

Updated - just checked the Geophysical Institute site on the latest interpretation of the fly-over's which were recently accomplished. Concern on the CotoPaxi glaciers about some spots with rapid melting.. and secondary Lahar's being formed.

They do have cameras which monitor the streams for sudden increase or decrease of flow.

(Source)

[Wide-Eyed]

Heads up Bill- cause for conCERN? too technical for me but charts don't lie do they? Or just confuse ? Anyway thought you might want to check on correlations...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_S6...ature=youtu.be

[Bob]

VLP's - very long period earthquakes, a type of slow tremor has been continual for the last couple days - from: https://vhub.org/resources/362/download/Waite_LF.pdf (a discussion of what slow-wave, tremor, and assorted "events" discussion) is being observed in one of the seismic recordings on CotoPaxi.

VERY LONG PERIOD EARTHQUAKES
Characteristics noted
• Observed at most active volcanoes having sufficient instrumentation
• basaltic to dacitic in makeup
• events tend to be explosive and effusive
• single pulse or oscillatory
• Likely involve fluid-flow on much longer time scale than tremor or LPs

What appears likely, one is noting fluid flow of magma against one (or more) of the magma pipes.

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Wide-Eyed (here)
Heads up Bill- cause for conCERN? too technical for me but charts don't lie do they? Or just confuse ? Anyway thought you might want to check on correlations...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_S6...ature=youtu.be

This is interesting, but I double-checked the time zone conversions. I'm not certain I didn't make a mistake (Bob, can you possibly recheck?), but here's what I got:

• The 8.3 earthquake was on 16 Sept 2015, at 22:54:30.9 UTC (source: this post from the EMSC/USGS)
• Using timeanddate.com, I checked what time this was in Geneva, Switzerland, where CERN is. It told me it was then 17 Sept, at 00:54:30.9 (i.e. nearly 0100).
• That's two hours before the 0300 CERN peak.
• So, CERN could not have been the cause.

The only refutation for this would be if the read-out on the CERN graphs were NOT in local time. But in the video, the narrator states that the CERN data is indeed in local (Geneva) time. So, based on what I think we know here, it looks to me that the guy made a mistake in his correlations.

[Bob]

It looks like the Chilean 8.3 showed up on the CotoPaxi graphic as shown here below, and continued to evoke slow-wave oscillation for some hours afterwards. Appears to be about 1801 PM local time in Ecuador, the main event showing up as lasting 6 minutes.

The first aftershock showed up at about 1815 PM local time Ecuador, lasting for about 2 minutes. After these, seismic slow-wave, volcanic tremor, with periods of 7-8 cycles per minute started and continued for an hour and a half.

Time difference between Quito, Ecuador and Geneva, Switzerland is:

+7:0 hours

Geneva is 7:0 hours ahead of Quito
That means when it is 6pm in Quito, it is 1 am in Geneva

At 1801 PM Quito, Ecuador (6:01pm), to GENEVA local, looks like, even with what differs by a few minutes from the EMSC/USGS posting for time as to when thing started shaking on CotoPaxi.. It looks like 2 hours earlier the quake was than the 0300 CERN (local time) peak quote as you've noted.

By 2000 PM Quito, (the two hour afterwards period) there was no evidence of any event, shaking, or tremor on the CotoPaxi graphic.

[Bob]

CotoPaxi was a bit bumpy during the night and into the early morning finally tremor subsiding and spiking subsiding later in the day. Tungurahua remained spikey, with loud outbursts every hour.

Shortly before 1600 local there was some event tracking across the two volcanoes.

[Bob]

Shortly after 0100 am local time, CotoPaxi started to exhibit longer and stronger periods of volcanic tremor, with some explosive events. Tungurahua about 100 km south had started eruptive activity shortly after midnite local time and CotoPaxi possibly had started to track on the magma activity in the region with it's own increase in activity. Near 0430 am local time a classic double pulse strong explosion was noted in the graphic.

Some slow-wave oscillation plus longer and more frequent volcanic tremor was continuing into the morning hours.

[Bob]

CotoPaxi continues to have long periods of stronger volcanic tremor with slow-wave plus explosive events.

[Bob]

The volcano is continuing to experience about every 1 1/2 hours to two hours strong periods of volcanic tremor...

[Bob]

Strong seismic tremor happening by CotoPaxi Volcano and a surprised earthquake felt through a lot of Ecuador in the early morning hours - (see map below)

THe quake event can be seen in the seismographic near 0517 local:

[Bob]

Large volcanic tremor "slow wave" appeared on the sensors at CotoPaxi this afternoon.

The events started about 1417 local time. One can see at 1608 the start of the slow wave portion of the tremor. These generally are indications of potentially LARGE eruptive events are in the offing. The wave shows up as energy trapped in a moving fluid. This is a significant pattern.

[Bob]

Rather large explosion today shortly after 1810 pm

Preceded by spikey events, very short bursts of energy, rock fracturing..

[Bob]

Strong rumble at 0429, CotoPaxi, for about 15 minutes.

Tungurahua about 100 km southward has been rocking and rolling, with explosions (being noted by observers), strong spiky activity..

[Bob]

Brief eruption at CotoPaxi -

Started about 1145 local and is continuing as of the posting. Looks like it's stopped by 1400 local.

And then started back up again an hour later...

[Bob]

CotoPaxi continued with it's eruptive cycles, about a half hour and 15 minutes this afternoon. The seismic network in Ecuador was down from 2000 local last nite till about 0800 this morning but it was not published until later this afternoon. (Tungurahua's eruption was the last recording prior to the network going down, with an eruption from 1900-2000 local)..

One is noting the double pulsing with the magmatic and rock-spiking events as well..