CotoPaxi Volcano - Ecuador seismic status

[Bob]

Despite signs of slow-wave volcanic tremor, and spikey activity, and rather large explosions, the National Park at CotoPaxi has been re-opened to the public.

Cotopaxi National Park opens with security measures for visitors

119 days after the close of the Cotopaxi National Park, government officials announced today, December 11, 2015, the reopening of the protected area for the enjoyment of visitors.

The decision is based on monitoring reports and monitoring of the Geophysical Institute of the National Polytechnic School (IGEPN) indicating that the volcano in recent weeks has shown a decrease both internal and surface. In addition, the Risk Management Secretariat (SGR) has recommended that yellow alert while continuing visits could be controlled by trained personnel.

The Ministry of Environment (MAE), in coordination with the SGR and Security Coordinator (MICS) Ministry has worked to ensure the safety of all citizens who visit the park, through the provision of telecommunications equipment, articulated the System Early existing alert. It has also enhanced internal communication, providing personnel with portable radios, connected directly to the Integrated Service Security ECU-911. With these instruments delivering timely warnings to rangers and visitors is ensured.

The Foreign Ministry also developed a contingency plan that includes shares outstanding during the yellow alert. The plan is a diagnosis, analysis of vulnerabilities and threats. Lands in prevention, risk control as alarm and communications protocols, emergency detection, and operational procedures for guards, technicians and administrator area.

The absolutely MASSIVE explosion at 0708 am today was a sign that the volcano is hardly safe, and reopening to the public is clearly not the smartest thing to do..

[Bob]

BOOM - watching the seismic activity last nite at 2110, a large earthquake stimulated the plumbing for the CotoPaxi volcano.. Today a large eruption happened (see below) shortly after 0100 local.

It continued strongly till after 0900 am local.

A large explosion again at 1230 local time, and then lesser eruptive activity until about 1415 local time..

The volcano was giving indication of eruptive activity may be coming.. I pointed out the explosions, the spiky activity and volcanic slow wave oscillations.. Apparently the seismic activity (shown on both the cotopaxi and tungurahua seismometers) was enough to kick off the eruption.

[Bob]

A large explosion at 0338 about the time of the maximum full moon. Then calm until about 0700 local, and an increase of unsettled activity, rumbling and high frequency seismic activity. The other volcano further south near Banos was experiencing very sharp, abrupt explosive events as seen on the seismometer..

A period of eruptive activity could start up once again at CotoPaxi.. It looks like the magma channels fill, and the magma moves around, with emission from the various locations.. Earthquake activity appears to induce magma movement or re-channeling..

[Bob]

Numerous quakes were happening starting about 0200 local time, followed by eruptive activity and a large explosion. The quakes were noted on the seismometers at CotoPaxi and Tungurahua to the south.

Starting with the Tungurahua volcano seismometer... (then CotoPaxi). The quake events can be correlated between the two seismographic charts, noting the slight time shift (allowing for speed of sound in rock..)

At 10:46 am local time another seismic event happened in the region, which could lead up towards another output of eruptive activity

Tungurahua then CotoPaxi seismgraphic charts follow:

The CotoPaxi seismometer is showing slow wave, spikey events, periodic regular peaks of high frequency activity... indicative of magma movement. If a massive shift in pressures occurs, it is possible that a larger eruption will happen.

[Bob]

Large explosions and rumbling, from the volcano during the late nite and into the early morning - depending on the magma buildup in the channels below, will there be a large event in the offing..

[Bob]

The two events below are seismic "quakes" showing up on both the CotoPaxi volcano's seismometer, and the Tungurahua's seismometer about 100 km south.. 0805 am local and 1042 am local time.. After the double pulse seismic quake on CotoPaxi (and Tungurahua), spikey activity (sharp rock breaks) started up.. If slow-wave appears that would indicate magma movement.

Cotopaxi first, then Tungurahua's seismic chart for today -

the significance is, strong earthquake activity is affecting magma movement, magma movement can lead to eruptions, IF channels back up and the flow is directed through a particular exiting orifice (the volcano)..

[Bob]

The seismograph was off for a day (or not being posted), but today with it back on, one can note 'explosive eruption' is present at CotoPaxi - should the park be closed?

Below, what was not seen was what was previously happening at Tungurahua volcano to the south.. Note the large explosive event:

==UPDATE==

Eruption activity continues - strongly as of 1700 local

[Bob]

Eruptive activity was pretty much continuous until after 2200 hours local time. It is assumed that the activity was happening prior to the published seismometer graphic which was re-activated after 1130 am local. (Spectral graphics were published showing activity as early as midnite ) - this eruptive period was about 12 hours, substantially longer than the previous eruption of the 23rd Dec, 2015.

[Bob]

Eruption started back up after a two hour respite. It was continuing as of about 0800 local time.

[Bob]

Longest recent eruption from CotoPaxi continues into the night - (apx 33 hours with a couple small breaks in-between)

[Bob]

Eruption continues - 44 hours so far..

[Bob]

Eruptive patterns continued through the night with diminished activity coming in "waves" as shown on the seismographic:

[Bob]

Eruption resumed after about 0300 local time - this is the longest eruptive period of 2016 to date.

[Bob]

Eruption events had stopped for about 8 hours during the night, with some large explosions, then resumed in the morning:

[Bob]

Possibly the eruption cycle from the 1st January 2016 has stopped. This has been the longest most recent eruption from the Volcano.

A question to ask would be, where is the current magma reservoir located and where is the pressure being relieved? (which volcano, or if not relieved where will the next eruption happen? These volcanos sit on the "Ring of Fire", a system of interaction zones, which extend northwards, up the west coast of the US, through Alaska, over into Japan, and southwards into Indonesia).

[Bob]

The CotoPaxi volcano is not fully quiet - eruption briefly resumed this morning:

The earlier question was, where is the magma currently? Apparently it was being blocked, which what happens in that case, pressure builds up, then a release happens, then a dwindling happens if the pocket rapidly empties. We shall see if this resumes as it did earlier in the month.

[Bob]

Volcanic activity diminishing to a brief explosion now and then. Small periods of slow wave and spikes are continuing, so it is not fully "asleep" just yet..

[Bob]

Both CotoPaxi and Tungurahua volcano's output has reduced substantially to an occasional large explosion now and then with smaller outbursts, and spike activity continuing. The region is still experiencing large seismic quakes of about 2 minutes in duration, showing that the region is still unstable. (they don't look like aftershocks). When the seismic event bursts happen there is movement of the magma below, indicated in the seismic graphic recordings.

Note the double seismic pulse at 0322 am local time, and the increase in spike activity afterwards.

Currently:

there is a hint of slow-wave seismic movement in the graphic.

[pyrangello]

thanks for all your insight on this !

[Bob]

(Server has been intermittent for the last couple days - back now)

During the night there was a long sustained "event" which could have been a low level eruption from the volcano. Over the previous recent days, activity has been diminishing with spikes in activity (rock fracturing), and brief small explosions. On occasion a larger explosion now and then was noted. The event during the night is the most significant activity (that was able to be seen and retreived from the server) recently.